2025年4月22日，星期二，第1231期

中船705所试验成功以氢化镁为基础的“非核氢弹”，于军民两用，尤其是战略层面有何重大意义？

【媒体报道】

据相关媒体近日披露，在此次试验中，中国科研团队通过引爆氢基爆炸装置，在不借助任何核材料触发链式或聚变反应的前提下，仅凭镁基固态储氢材料实现了“核武器级”爆炸效果，这一突破性进展引发国际社会高度关注。据悉，在爆炸过程中，利用尖端技术制造的“非核氢弹”产生了约1000摄氏度的高温，持续爆炸时间约为2秒。

4月21日，据台媒报道，中国台湾地区领导人赖清德当日会见了北美洲台湾商会联合总会回国访问暨投资考察团，称将加强台美产业合作。

【讨论纪要】

●在中国反向将美国树立成“立规矩”的“标杆”后，美国想要树立反华“标杆”就变得难上加难

在我们的观察与评估中，中国台湾地区领导人赖清德炒作所谓“加强台美产业合作”，是在美国特朗普的授意下这样做的，目的在于急于将中国台湾省打造成“关税反华同盟”的“样板”。

“台独”分子在特朗普眼中老实得很，美前总统小布什所谓“台湾是麻烦制造者”是鬼话。意图在“左手制造问题，右手解决问题”，明明是其暗中搞鬼，还要中国因美国“帮忙”压制“台独”而感激涕零。以陈水扁为例，毫不夸张地说，他们的一言一行都是美国授意的，没有美国人的点头而擅自行动是会死人的。

需要补充的是，新中国在对台政策、香港政策上是走过弯路的，吃过很多亏。好在毛主席给我们打下的底子太厚，让我们有足够的冗余改正错误。

实际上，特朗普一直想要为其打造的“关税反华同盟”树立“样板”。原本指望越南，没想到在中国第一时间，第一个站出来对美国进行全面且犀利反击后，越南“投了八路”（注：至少表面上是这样。在中国国家最高领导人访越后，同意和中方共同维护南海和平稳定，继续全面有效落实《南海各方行为宣言》）。而马来西亚对美国有着当年“亚洲金融危机”的痛苦回忆，更何况其尝到了和中国合作的甜头。至于柬埔寨，虽然洪玛奈当局在对华政策上犯了糊涂，好在浪子回头。总而言之，在中国反向将美国树立成“立规矩”（注：连“关税战”的始作俑者美帝都吊打不误，何况其他宵小）的“标杆”后，美国想要树立反华“标杆”就变得难上加难。于是，特朗普政府把最后的希望投向两个地方，一个是印度，是世界人口第一大国。另一个是中国台湾省。特朗普知道，中国台湾省向来被大陆看作“自己的孩子”，总是不肯轻易“下重手”。

●在充当特朗普政府急需的“反华关税同盟”之“标杆”的问题上，“台独”当局没有这个资格

在继续展开讨论前，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

4月21日，根据台积电最新公布的股东会年报，台积电在美国亚利桑那州新建的工厂，2024年亏损近143亿元新台币，成为最烧钱的海外厂区。在此前三年，台积电美国工厂因为一直处于前期投资建设阶段，也是亏损连连，而且持续扩大，2021年、2022年、2023年分别达48.1亿元新台币、94.3亿元新台币、109.24亿元新台币，四年合计亏损几乎达到400亿元新台币。同时，台积电在日本、欧洲的布局投资，也分别导致超过43亿元新台币、5亿元新台币的亏损。

而在大陆，台积电南京相关子公司去年获利259.54亿元新台币，相比2021年的122.83亿元新台币、2022年的204.86亿元新台币、2023年的217.55亿元新台币，一直在攀升。四年合计，台积电南京厂盈利超过800亿元新台币。

从上面的这则新闻报道中，我们不难读出这样的信息：

第一，台积电除了在大陆继续盈利之外，在美国，欧洲和日本的投资都处于亏损状态；

第二，报告内容的来源是近日披露的“台积电最新公布的股东会年报”；

第三，披露时间点恰好就在美国特朗普政府有意将中国台湾省打造成“反华关税同盟”之“标杆”之际，耐人寻味。也可以这样讲，随着中国台湾地区领导人赖清德当日会见北美洲台湾商会联合总会回国访问暨投资考察团，台湾岛内便响起了噼里啪啦的“算盘声”。

有一个不争的事实是，尽管近段时间台湾海峡时而风云聚集，但中国台湾省的经济对大陆依赖性则有增无减。

根据台湾媒体2025年1月9日公布的最新进出口贸易统计数据，2024年台湾贸易顺差806.08亿美元。其中，对大陆与香港出口1506.19亿美元、进口806.23亿美元，贸易顺差699.96亿美元。从出口货品类别看，“电子零组件”是台湾对大陆与香港出口的最大宗货品，全年出口额916.28亿美元，占总额的60.8%，其次为“资通与视听产品”，出口额217.39亿美元。

从以上数据也就不难看出，为什么台积电最新公布的股东会年报会在赖清德当日会见北美洲台湾商会联合总会回国访问暨投资考察团前后公布。一个显而易见的问题就摆在那里，如果跟随特朗普政府对大陆增加关税，这700亿美元毫无争议的来自大陆的贸易顺差如何弥补？台湾经济是否会因此崩溃？

也许这个答案并不难回答。早在2022年，俄罗斯总统普京就一针见血地指出，中国收复台湾根本不需要动用武力，通过经济手段即可。显然，在充当特朗普政府急需的“反华关税同盟”之“标杆”的问题上，“台独”当局没有这个资格。

●特朗普想要把印度打造成“反华关税同盟”的“样板”同样难度不小，更需要花费大量时间

对于这一情况，恐怕特朗普也是心知肚明。之所以如此，还不是因为实在找不到“合适人选”充当这个“标杆”。真执行起来，未必效果会如特朗普所愿。所以，不排除特朗普政府玩一手声东击西——拿中国台湾省说事儿，“文章”却落在比印度、日本和韩国。

在我们看来，如果这些国家敢实质性跟随美国反华，中国绝不姑息。当然，强调“实质性”，且强调具体问题具体分析。也就是说，这些国家当“渔翁”可以，但不要跟随美国去实质性损害中国的核心利益。

以印度为例，印度从中国购买的商品种类很多，比如，制药业广泛使用的一些基础原料绝大部分来自中国。尽管国际货币基金组织预测2025年印度的国内生产总值会超越日本成为全球第四大经济体，但想要当这个反华“标杆”，恐怕也不够资格，充其量是一个大号的越南。更何况印度莫迪政府对美国也是三心二意，加拿大及前总统拜登执政下的美国因锡克教人士问题将美印关系搞得微妙复杂。所以，特朗普想要把印度打造成“反华关税同盟”的“样板”同样难度不小，更需要花费大量时间。

●基于氢基研制的“非核氢弹”本质上是常规武器，或者可以理解为可以在常规战争中使用的“核弹”。这是一种典型的“不对称军事威慑”

接下来我们换一个话题进行讨论。来看一则新闻报道。

4月21日，香港某媒体援引权威科研机构信息披露，中国船舶工业集团第705研究所于近期成功完成新型爆炸装置的野外试验。试验中，一枚重2公斤的“氢基爆炸装置”在无核材料参与的情况下，引发持续2秒以上的超高温火球，温度峰值突破1000摄氏度，爆炸威力达到同质量TNT的15倍。这一突破引发国际军事界高度关注，被视为中国在常规武器领域的重大技术跨越。

原子弹是裂变核弹，氢弹是聚变核弹，两者在机制上还是有很大差别的。但新闻报道中提及的“非核氢弹”其实与上面我们提到的聚变核弹——氢弹，或与作为氢弹引爆“雷管”的原子弹没有任何关系，其是一种基于氢基的燃料或者炸药。

需要补充一点的是，原子弹是裂变核弹，且威力有限。爆炸当量理论上限约为50万吨TNT。在我们看来，美国的核技术已经落后，其绝大部分执行战备值班任务的核弹是原子弹，或者说裂变核弹。相比之下，中国由于“于敏构型”，氢弹或聚变核弹的保质期大为延长。

众所周知，氢是高度可燃的，具有化学和生物燃料里最高的热值，完全燃烧后的发热是同等重量汽油的3倍，而汽油差不多是同等重量TNT的10倍。氢气轻于空气，特别容易扩散，在空气中的扩散速度约为天然气的4倍，火焰传播速度则是天然气的5倍。此外，氢还特别容易点燃，点火能量不到天然气的10%。氢在空气中体积浓度占4%～75%时都能燃烧，在18.3%～59%范围内会爆炸。

基于氢基研制的“非核氢弹”本质上是常规武器，或者可以理解为可以在常规战争中使用的“核弹”。这是一种典型的“不对称军事威”慑。这种武器曝光意味着，在我们的观察与评估中，中国周边地区蠢蠢欲动的，包括“台独”分子在内的各路宵小，亦或是美帝本身都要小心了！

●如果其可控的反应释氢相关的技术成本被有效降低，那就意味着氢能电池核心技术将获得重大突破

某种意义上说，“非核氢弹”是以上一系列核心技术突破后，在军事应用领域取得的最新成果。资料显示，“非核氢弹”使用了一种氢化镁的氢基物质，其化学反应有可控，也就是反应释氢和不可控，也就是燃烧爆炸两种方式。

当氢化镁遇到水时会发生化学反应，生成氢氧化镁和氢气。如果遇到酸，反应会更加剧烈，因为酸中的氢离子浓度更高，会加速氢化镁的分解，产生更多的氢气。氢化镁与水或酸反应产生氢气的过程中会释放大量的热，这些热量可能会使生成的氢气达到着火点，从而引发氢气燃烧。由于氢气燃烧迅速，在有限空间内，短时间内产生大量热量和气体，就会导致压力急剧升高，进而引发爆炸。

不难想象的是，在军事应用领域，“非核氢弹”利用的是其燃烧爆炸这种不可控的剧烈化学反应。而在民用领域，如果其可控的反应释氢相关的技术成本被有效降低，那就意味着氢能电池核心技术将获得重大突破。

●氢能相关技术研发，在军民两用之外，尤其对我国能源安全，乃至国际局势后续研发方面具有重要意义

说到氢能源，大家就会自然联想到我国的能源安全问题。与氢能源相提并论的还有光伏和传统的化石能源。说起氢能源和化石能源，我们不妨说说两件事。一件事是日本的汽车产业未来何去何从，或者说日本经济的未来何去何从；另一件事就是波斯湾的安全问题以及美俄基于非传统安全层面的合作前景问题。

在特朗普针对世界，尤其是针对中国发动“关税战”后，日本汽车产业前途更加黯淡。特朗普政府想要逼迫日本加入“反华关税同盟”并将其打造成“样板”之心昭然若揭。

氢作为能源有非常远大的未来和发展前景。日本早些年间在氢能源相关技术上研究多年，并一度将其视为未来日本汽车产业的发展出路。无奈碍于日本自身条件有限，无法完成研究氢能产业的完整产业链。相比之下，中国已经在制氢、储氢、运输、可控释放等一系列核心技术上取得长足进展。数据显示，2014-2023年中国氢能源专利申请数量快速上升。2019年我国专利申请数量为1122项，首次突破一千大关；2023年我国氢能源专利申请数量为1472项，同比上涨21.15%。不难想象的是，如果中国把上述氢基反应技术用于民用，日本汽车产业就算看到了莫大的希望，甚至未来中日在氢能源方面的合作，有可能成为撬开美日军事同盟的有力“撬棒”。

说到传统化石能源问题，再次强调，特朗普政府如果无法改变这种内焦外困的被动处境，是有可能通过彻底搞乱波斯湾（注：军事打击伊朗核设施），企图浑水摸鱼，乱中取胜的。尽管这张牌特朗普不会轻易打出来，但这一战略选项我们相信是存在的。

有关上述问题，此前我们有讨论过俄罗斯的心态。在中美于非传统安全层面这种无限接近于“摊牌”的关系现状出现后，俄罗斯的渔翁心态空前高涨。正是在这种心态下，俄罗斯从目前美国和伊朗之间关系逐渐趋于紧张之中，尤其是波斯湾稳定可能会出大问题之中看到了巨大商机。一旦波斯湾的稳定真的出了大问题，上文中提到的中国、欧盟在能源进口问题上不得不对俄罗斯更为依赖。

顺着这个逻辑我们逆向思维，如果中国真的在氢能源领域取得重大突破，其对中国自身能源安全现状必将极大改观，能源需求压力将会极大缓解，也在客观上压缩了俄美基于非传统安全层面进一步展开合作的操作空间。

●中国可以面对这种极端情况，可以生存，但你们能否面对？

至于特朗普政府是选择在西太方向的南海问题上战略冒险还是选择在中东方向的伊朗问题上战略冒险，需要特朗普自己权衡成破利害。

如果特朗普政府最终一意孤行，则，中国有责任和义务提醒在通过波斯湾进出口能源以及在海上贸易路线上有重大利益关切的国家和组织，例如沙特、伊朗、埃及、土耳其、欧盟、俄罗斯、日本、韩国、东盟等，到底是谁，出于什么目的在刻意与世界为敌。作为负责任的大国，中国会尽力阻止此类事情的发生，至于最后能否阻止，需要依靠大家做出共同努力。

中国可以面对这种极端情况，可以生存，但你们能否面对？所以，如果大家不想此类事情发生，那就与中国一起反帝、反霸（注：中国仍然起到中流砥柱的作用）！

至于伊朗，跟不跟，并不强求。但是，当美帝真的对伊朗动手的时候，国际社会对伊朗是否策应，策应到什么程度，首先要看伊朗自助到什么程度。此外，有一点可以肯定，一旦真的波斯湾大乱，海上贸易中断，全球经济必然迅速滑向“满地鸡毛”之“深水区”。所以，国际社会务必就随时准备启动“最低经济内循环”及“循环升级”做好相应准备。

●除非特朗普政府满足中国提出的前提条件——太平洋足够大，容得下中美两军，否则，免谈！

上面我们提到了波斯湾的安全环境恶化，伊朗战略风险激增。这是相对远离中国的中东方向。但风险并不止于此，在中国周边地区，比如西太方向同样存在。我们此前也按照风险高低进行排序，按风险从高到低排列分别是：南海方向，朝鲜半岛方向和台海方向。其中，菲律宾问题就包括在南海方向之中。

4月21日，菲律宾最新民意调查显示，在前总统杜特尔特被国际刑事法院逮捕后，现任总统马科斯的支持率急剧下降。

就菲律宾前总统杜特尔特被捕一事东方时事解读早有评估：杜特尔特本人或通过某些途径洞悉了这一“游戏”的玩法。而在其决定返回菲律宾的那一刻，小马科斯政府就陷入被动之中。

特朗普上台之后，对中国搞了一系列极限战略讹诈手段，其中一个主要意图就是，让中国在帮助美国金融维稳的问题上当“带头大哥”，比如，带头购买美债。以中国今天的经济实力，世界影响力，如果中国愿意率先购买美债，美国金融维稳问题会立刻得以极大缓解。有了中国的配合，特朗普政府就可以放心大胆地开启前所未有规模的公开“印钱”。这样一来，“蛋糕”就此做大，不仅可以稳定盟友，更可以“化敌为友”，这对于特朗普平息美国内部恶斗、缓和仍代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部矛盾，谋求独裁统治都大有好处。

南海问题，菲律宾问题就是特朗普急切期盼实现这一企图而对中国使出的“胡萝卜+大棒”式的讹诈手段。但问题在于，特朗普踢到了中国这块“钢板”上。在我们看来，除非特朗普政府满足中国提出的条件——太平洋足够大，容得下中美两军，否则，免谈！至于美国国债，中国不会承诺一定购买（注：国债对中国而言也是一种武器，如同“核武器架在发射架才具有威慑力”一样）！

奉劝美帝，不要逼着中国出手教训菲律宾小马科斯政府，进而客观上使得美国不得不退出西太。讹诈之所以称之为讹诈，而不是摊牌，就在于讹诈只能说不能做，一旦做了，且“不可逆”，那事情的性质就彻底变了。对中国来说，尽管一再强调，争取“河渡人”是最优战略选项，但并非唯一战略选项。如果美帝偏要找死，撞到枪口上，国际社会也绝不古稀，必将其“超度升天”。所以，本质上，中美对待讹诈这个问题，态度是截然不同的。也因此，美帝总是在进行讹诈，而国际社会也将其所谓的“摊牌”最终定性为讹诈，与此同时，做出最坏的打算去尽力争取最好的结果。可以说，双方处境的截然不同，导致应对的根本做法也就不同。

对特朗普而言，菲律宾也是一个选择项。或者说，抛弃菲律宾小马科斯政府就可以转换。当然，这种选择也容易造成“雪崩”，也就是由此产生的一系列后果特朗普政府应如何维持？比如，日本和韩国是否会像白俄罗斯一样，在俄罗斯向西方实质性妥协之前，跑得比谁都快。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Tuesday, April 22, 2025, Issue No. 1231

What are the major significances, especially at the strategic level, of the successful test of the "non - nuclear hydrogen bomb" based on magnesium hydride by the 705 Institute of China State Shipbuilding Corporation for both military and civilian use?

[Media Coverage]

Recently, relevant media disclosed that in this test, the Chinese scientific research team detonated a hydrogen - based explosive device. Without relying on any nuclear materials to trigger a chain reaction or a fusion reaction, they achieved a "nuclear - weapon - level" explosive effect solely through a magnesium - based solid - state hydrogen storage material. This breakthrough has attracted high attention from the international community. It is reported that during the explosion, the "non - nuclear hydrogen bomb" produced using cutting - edge technology generated a high temperature of about 1,000 degrees Celsius, and the continuous explosion lasted for about 2 seconds.

On April 21, according to Taiwanese media reports, Lai Ching - te, the leader of the Taiwan region of China, met with the North America Taiwanese Chamber of Commerce Joint General Association delegation returning from a visit and investment inspection on the same day, and said that he would strengthen industrial cooperation between Taiwan and the United States.

【Discussion Summary】

● After China reversely sets the United States as the "role model" for "setting rules", it becomes extremely difficult for the United States to set an "anti - China role model"

In our observation and assessment, when Lai Ching - te, the leader of the Taiwan region of China, hyped up the so - called "strengthening of industrial cooperation between Taiwan and the United States", it was at the behest of Trump in the United States. The purpose was to desperately turn Taiwan Province of China into a "model" of the "tariff anti - China alliance".

In Trump's eyes, "Taiwan independence" elements are very obedient. The claim by former US President George W. Bush that "Taiwan is a troublemaker" is pure nonsense. They attempt to "create problems with one hand and solve them with the other". Obviously, they are secretly making trouble, but still expect China to be grateful to the United States for "helping" to suppress "Taiwan independence". Take Chen Shui - bian as an example. It is no exaggeration to say that every word and action of them is instigated by the United States. Acting without the approval of the Americans would be life - threatening.

It should be added that New China has taken detours and suffered many losses in its policies towards Taiwan and Hong Kong. Fortunately, the solid foundation laid by Chairman Mao enables us to have sufficient leeway to correct mistakes.

In fact, Trump has always wanted to set a "model" for the "tariff anti - China alliance" he created. He originally pinned his hopes on Vietnam. Unexpectedly, after China was the first to launch a comprehensive and sharp counter - attack against the United States, Vietnam "sided with the Communist Party" (Note: At least on the surface. After the visit of the top leader of China to Vietnam, it agreed to jointly maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea with China and continue to fully and effectively implement the "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea"). Malaysia has painful memories of the "Asian financial crisis" caused by the United States, and moreover, it has tasted the benefits of cooperation with China. As for Cambodia, although the Hun Manet administration made some muddled decisions in its policy towards China, fortunately, it has seen the error of its ways.

All in all, after China reversely sets the United States as the "role model" for "setting rules" (Note: Even the United States, the initiator of the "tariff war", can be easily defeated, let alone other small fry), it becomes extremely difficult for the United States to set an anti - China "role model". As a result, the Trump administration placed its last hopes on two places. One is India, the most populous country in the world. The other is Taiwan Province of China. Trump knows that Taiwan Province of China has always been regarded as "its own child" by the Chinese mainland, and he is always reluctant to take tough measures easily.

● The “Taiwan independence” authorities are unqualified to be the “benchmark” of the “anti - China tariff alliance” urgently needed by the Trump administration

Before continuing the discussion, let's look at another news report.

On April 21, according to the latest annual report of the shareholders' meeting released by TSMC, the new factory built by TSMC in Arizona, the United States, suffered a loss of nearly NT$14.3 billion in 2024, becoming the most money - consuming overseas plant. In the previous three years, since the TSMC factory in the United States was in the early stage of investment and construction, it also suffered continuous losses, and the losses kept expanding. The losses in 2021, 2022, and 2023 were NT$4.81 billion, NT$9.43 billion, and NT$10.924 billion respectively. The total losses in four years almost reached NT$40 billion. At the same time, TSMC's investment layouts in Japan and Europe also caused losses of more than NT$4.3 billion and NT$0.5 billion respectively.

In the Chinese mainland, a subsidiary of TSMC in Nanjing made a profit of NT$25.954 billion last year. Compared with NT$12.283 billion in 2021, NT$20.486 billion in 2022, and NT$21.755 billion in 2023, the profit has been rising continuously. In total, the Nanjing plant of TSMC has made a profit of more than NT$80 billion in four years.

From the above news report, we can easily read the following information:

First, except for continuing to make profits in the Chinese mainland, TSMC's investments in the United States, Europe, and Japan are all at a loss.

Second, the source of the report is the latest annual report of the shareholders' meeting recently released by TSMC.

Third, the release time coincides exactly with the moment when the Trump administration in the United States intends to build Taiwan Province of China into the “benchmark” of the “anti - China tariff alliance”, which is thought - provoking. It can also be said that as soon as Lai Ching - te, the leader of the Taiwan region of China, met with the North America Taiwanese Chamber of Commerce Joint General Association delegation returning from a visit and investment inspection on the same day, the sound of “calculating” could be heard on the island of Taiwan.

An indisputable fact is that although the Taiwan Strait has been occasionally turbulent recently, the economic dependence of Taiwan Province of China on the Chinese mainland has been increasing.

According to the latest import and export trade statistics released by Taiwanese media on January 9, 2025, Taiwan's trade surplus in 2024 was US$80.608 billion. Among them, the exports to the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong were US$150.619 billion, and the imports were US$80.623 billion, with a trade surplus of US$69.996 billion. Looking at the categories of exported goods, “electronic components” were the largest category of goods exported by Taiwan to the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, with an annual export value of US$91.628 billion, accounting for 60.8% of the total. The second was “information, communication, and audio - visual products”, with an export value of US$21.739 billion.

From the above data, it is not difficult to see why the latest annual report of TSMC's shareholders' meeting was released around the time when Lai Ching - te met with the North America Taiwanese Chamber of Commerce Joint General Association delegation returning from a visit and investment inspection on the same day. An obvious question is right there. If it follows the Trump administration to increase tariffs on the Chinese mainland, how to make up for this US$70 - billion trade surplus from the Chinese mainland without any doubt? Will the Taiwan economy collapse as a result?

Perhaps the answer is not difficult to find. As early as 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out incisively that China doesn't need to use force at all to recover Taiwan. It can be achieved through economic means. Obviously, on the issue of being the “benchmark” of the “anti - China tariff alliance” urgently needed by the Trump administration, the “Taiwan independence” authorities are unqualified.

● It is also no easy task for Trump to build India into a "model" of the "anti - China tariff alliance", and it will take a great deal of time.

Trump is probably well - aware of this situation. The reason is that it is really hard to find a "suitable candidate" to act as this "benchmark". Even if it is actually implemented, the effect may not be as Trump expects. Therefore, it is not excluded that the Trump administration may play a game of diverting attention - making a fuss about Taiwan Province of China, while the real "intention" lies in countries like India, Japan, and South Korea.

In our view, if these countries dare to follow the United States in substantially anti - China actions, China will not tolerate it. Of course, we emphasize "substantial actions" and the need for specific - issue analysis. That is to say, these countries can play the role of "bystanders", but they should not follow the United States to substantially damage China's core interests.

Take India as an example. India imports a wide variety of goods from China. For instance, the vast majority of some basic raw materials widely used in the pharmaceutical industry come from China. Although the International Monetary Fund predicts that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will surpass Japan to become the world's fourth - largest economy in 2025, it is still not qualified to be this anti - China "model". At most, it is just a larger version of Vietnam. Moreover, the Modi government in India is also half - hearted towards the United States. The relationship between the United States and India has been made delicate and complex due to the Sikh - related issue under the Biden administration (during the former president's term) and Canada. Therefore, it is no easy task for Trump to build India into a "model" of the "anti - China tariff alliance", and it will take a great deal of time.

● The "non - nuclear hydrogen bomb" developed based on hydrogen is essentially a conventional weapon, or can be understood as a "nuclear bomb" that can be used in conventional warfare. It is a typical form of "asymmetric military deterrence".

Let's switch to another topic for discussion. Now, let's look at a news report.

On April 21, a Hong Kong - based media outlet, citing information disclosure from an authoritative scientific research institution, reported that the 705th Research Institute of China State Shipbuilding Corporation recently completed the field test of a new - type explosive device. During the test, a 2 - kilogram "hydrogen - based explosive device" triggered a super - high - temperature fireball that lasted for more than 2 seconds without the participation of nuclear materials. The peak temperature exceeded 1,000 degrees Celsius, and the explosive power reached 15 times that of TNT of the same mass. This breakthrough has attracted high attention from the international military community and is regarded as a major technological leap in China's field of conventional weapons.

An atomic bomb is a fission nuclear bomb, and a hydrogen bomb is a fusion nuclear bomb. There are still significant differences in their mechanisms. However, the "non - nuclear hydrogen bomb" mentioned in the news report has nothing to do with the above - mentioned fusion nuclear bomb (hydrogen bomb) or the atomic bomb, which serves as the "detonator" for the hydrogen bomb. It is actually a fuel or explosive based on hydrogen.

It should be noted that an atomic bomb is a fission nuclear bomb with limited power. The theoretical upper limit of its explosive yield is about 500,000 tons of TNT. In our view, the nuclear technology of the United States has fallen behind. Most of the nuclear bombs on combat - ready duty in the United States are atomic bombs, or fission nuclear bombs. In contrast, thanks to the "Yu Min configuration", the shelf life of China's hydrogen bombs or fusion nuclear bombs has been greatly extended.

As is well known, hydrogen is highly flammable. It has the highest calorific value among chemical and biological fuels. The heat released during complete combustion is three times that of gasoline of the same weight, and gasoline is approximately ten times that of TNT of the same weight. Hydrogen is lighter than air and diffuses particularly easily. Its diffusion speed in the air is about four times that of natural gas, and its flame propagation speed is five times that of natural gas. In addition, hydrogen is extremely easy to ignite, with an ignition energy of less than 10% of that of natural gas. Hydrogen can burn when its volume concentration in the air ranges from 4% to 75%, and it will explode within the range of 18.3% to 59%.

The "non - nuclear hydrogen bomb" developed based on hydrogen is essentially a conventional weapon, or can be understood as a "nuclear bomb" that can be used in conventional warfare. It is a typical form of "asymmetric military deterrence". The exposure of this weapon means that, in our observation and assessment, all those troublemakers in China's neighboring regions, including "Taiwan independence" elements and others, or even the United States itself, should be on guard!

● If the technical cost related to the controllable reaction hydrogen release can be effectively reduced, it means that a major breakthrough will be achieved in the core technology of hydrogen - energy batteries.

In a sense, the "non - nuclear hydrogen bomb" is the latest achievement in the military application field after a series of core technological breakthroughs. According to the data, the "non - nuclear hydrogen bomb" uses a magnesium hydride - based hydrogen - containing substance, and its chemical reaction can occur in two ways: controllable (reaction hydrogen release) and uncontrollable (combustion and explosion).

When magnesium hydride encounters water, a chemical reaction occurs, generating magnesium hydroxide and hydrogen. If it encounters an acid, the reaction will be more intense because the concentration of hydrogen ions in the acid is higher, which will accelerate the decomposition of magnesium hydride and produce more hydrogen. During the process of magnesium hydride reacting with water or acid to produce hydrogen, a large amount of heat is released. This heat may cause the generated hydrogen to reach its ignition point, thus triggering the combustion of hydrogen. Since hydrogen burns rapidly, in a confined space, a large amount of heat and gas are generated in a short time, resulting in a sharp increase in pressure and then an explosion.

It is not difficult to imagine that in the military application field, the "non - nuclear hydrogen bomb" utilizes this uncontrollable and intense chemical reaction of combustion and explosion. In the civilian field, if the technical cost related to the controllable reaction hydrogen release can be effectively reduced, it means that a major breakthrough will be achieved in the core technology of hydrogen - energy batteries.

·The R & D of hydrogen - related technologies is of great significance for China's energy security and the subsequent international situation, apart from its military and civilian applications When it comes to hydrogen energy, people will naturally think of China's energy security issues. Alongside hydrogen energy, photovoltaic power and traditional fossil fuels are also often mentioned. Regarding hydrogen energy and fossil fuels, let's talk about two things. One is the future of Japan's automotive industry, or rather, the future of Japan's economy; the other is the security issues in the Persian Gulf and the prospects for US - Russia cooperation in the field of non - traditional security.

After Trump launched a "tariff war" against the world, especially against China, the future of Japan's automotive industry has become even dimmer. The Trump administration's intention to force Japan to join the "anti - China tariff alliance" and build it into a "model" is all too obvious.

Hydrogen, as an energy source, has a very promising future and development prospects. Japan has conducted research on hydrogen - related technologies for many years in the past and once regarded it as the future development path of Japan's automotive industry. However, due to Japan's limited own conditions, it has been unable to complete the entire industrial chain of the hydrogen - energy industry. In contrast, China has made great progress in a series of core technologies such as hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, transportation, and controllable release. Data shows that from 2014 to 2023, the number of patent applications for hydrogen energy in China increased rapidly. In 2019, the number of patent applications in China reached 1,122 for the first time, breaking through the 1,000 - mark; in 2023, the number of patent applications for hydrogen energy in China was 1,472, a year - on - year increase of 21.15%. It is not difficult to imagine that if China applies the above - mentioned hydrogen - based reaction technology to civilian use, Japan's automotive industry will see great hope. Even in the future, Sino - Japanese cooperation in the field of hydrogen energy may become a powerful "lever" to break open the US - Japan military alliance.

When it comes to the issue of traditional fossil fuels, let's emphasize once again that if the Trump administration cannot change its passive situation of being in internal and external troubles, it is possible that it will try to completely disrupt the Persian Gulf (Note: launch military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities) in an attempt to fish in troubled waters and win in chaos. Although Trump will not easily play this card, we believe that this strategic option does exist.

Regarding the above issues, we have previously discussed Russia's mentality. After the current situation where Sino - US relations are approaching a "showdown" in the field of non - traditional security has emerged, Russia's mentality of waiting for gains while remaining inactive has reached an all - time high. It is under such a mentality that Russia has seen huge business opportunities from the currently increasingly tense relationship between the United States and Iran, especially the possible major problems with the stability of the Persian Gulf. Once the stability of the Persian Gulf really gets into serious trouble, as mentioned above, China and the European Union will have to be more dependent on Russia in terms of energy imports.

Following this logic, if we think inversely, if China really makes a major breakthrough in the field of hydrogen energy, it will surely greatly improve China's current energy - security situation, greatly relieve the pressure of energy demand, and objectively compress the room for Russia and the United States to further cooperate in the field of non - traditional security.

·China Can Withstand Such an Extreme Situation and Survive. But Can You?

As for whether the Trump administration will choose to take a strategic risk over the South China Sea issue in the Western Pacific or over the Iranian issue in the Middle East, it is up to Trump himself to weigh the pros and cons.

If the Trump administration ultimately goes it alone, China has the responsibility and obligation to remind countries and organizations with major interests in energy import and export through the Persian Gulf and on maritime trade routes, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Turkey, the European Union, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN, about who is deliberately going against the world and for what purpose. As a responsible major country, China will do its utmost to prevent such things from happening. Whether it can ultimately be prevented depends on the joint efforts of all.

China can face such an extreme situation and survive. But can you? So, if you don't want such things to happen, then join hands with China to oppose imperialism and hegemonism (Note: China will still play a pivotal role)!

As for Iran, whether it chooses to cooperate or not is not something that will be forced. However, when the United States really takes military action against Iran, whether the international community will support Iran and to what extent depends first on how much self - help Iran can achieve. Moreover, one thing is certain. Once the Persian Gulf really falls into chaos and maritime trade is disrupted, the global economy will surely rapidly slide into a "deep - water zone" of "utter chaos". Therefore, the international community must be well - prepared at all times to initiate a "minimum economic internal circulation" and its "upgrading".

·Unless the Trump Administration Meets China's Preconditions - The Pacific Is Big Enough to Accommodate Both the Chinese and US Militaries, Otherwise, There's Nothing to Talk About!

Previously, we mentioned the deterioration of the security environment in the Persian Gulf and the soaring strategic risks for Iran. This is in the relatively distant Middle East direction from China. However, risks do not stop there. In China's neighboring regions, such as the Western Pacific direction, similar risks also exist. Previously, we ranked these risks from high to low as follows: the South China Sea direction, the Korean Peninsula direction, and the Taiwan Strait direction. The issue of the Philippines is included in the South China Sea direction.

On April 21, the latest public opinion poll in the Philippines showed that after the arrest of former President Duterte by the International Criminal Court, the approval rating of the current President Marcos dropped sharply.

Regarding the arrest of former Philippine President Duterte, Oriental Current Affairs Analysis had an assessment in advance: Duterte himself might have seen through the "rules of the game" through certain channels. The moment he decided to return to the Philippines, the Marcos Jr. administration fell into a passive situation.

After Trump came to power, he launched a series of extreme strategic extortion tactics against China. One of the main intentions was to make China take the lead in helping the United States maintain financial stability. For example, to take the lead in buying US Treasury bonds. With China's current economic strength and global influence, if China is willing to be the first to buy US Treasury bonds, the problem of US financial stability will be greatly alleviated immediately. With China's cooperation, the Trump administration can boldly start large - scale public "money - printing" on an unprecedented scale. In this way, the "cake" will get bigger. It can not only stabilize allies but also "turn enemies into friends". This is very beneficial for Trump to quell internal strife in the United States, ease the internal contradictions of US capital interests that still represent Western capital interests, and seek dictatorial rule.

The South China Sea issue and the Philippine issue are the extortion tactics of "carrot and stick" that Trump desperately hopes to use to achieve this goal against China. But the problem is that Trump has hit a "steel plate" in China. In our view, unless the Trump administration meets China's conditions - the Pacific is big enough to accommodate both the Chinese and US militaries, otherwise, there's nothing to talk about! As for US Treasury bonds, China will not promise to buy them for sure. (Note: Treasury bonds are also a weapon for China. Just like "a nuclear bomb only has deterrence when it is on the launch pad".)

We advise the United States not to force China to take action to teach the Marcos Jr. administration in the Philippines a lesson, which will objectively force the United States to withdraw from the Western Pacific. The reason why it is called extortion rather than a showdown is that extortion can only be talked about but not carried out. Once it is carried out and becomes "irreversible", the nature of the matter will completely change. For China, although it has repeatedly emphasized that striving for a "peaceful transition" is the optimal strategic option, it is not the only one. If the United States insists on seeking its own doom and running into the barrel of a gun, the international community will not sit idly by and will surely "send it to heaven". So, essentially, China and the United States have completely different attitudes towards extortion. Therefore, the United States is always engaging in extortion, while the international community ultimately characterizes its so - called "showdown" as extortion and at the same time makes the worst preparations to strive for the best results. It can be said that the completely different situations of the two sides lead to different fundamental approaches to dealing with the issue.

For Trump, the Philippines is also an option. In other words, abandoning the Marcos Jr. administration in the Philippines can be a way out. Of course, such a choice may also easily trigger an "avalanche", that is, how should the Trump administration deal with a series of consequences arising from this? For example, will Japan and South Korea run faster than anyone else before Russia makes substantial compromises with the West, just like Belarus?

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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