2025年4月21日，星期一，第1230期

结合中美“关税战”、中埃联合军演等综合国际背景，东方点评，阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫将访华

【媒体报道】

4月21日，据外交部网站消息，外交部发言人宣布：应*******邀请，阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫将于4月22日至24日对中国进行国事访问。

【讨论纪要】

●如阿塞拜疆这样的国家，尽管基于各自核心利益考量，暂不会做出公开且明确的选择，但国际局势发展的大势，恐怕心里都有一本账

在我们看来，阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫访华的时间点，尤其是访华的国际局势综合背景耐人寻味：

第一，中美之间正在进行激烈的“关税战”。有人将其视为特朗普第一任期对华发动的“贸易战”的延续。本质是中美“金融战”；

第二，在“第一”的基础上，特朗普政府对中国基于非传统安全层面玩“摊牌式极限战略讹诈”，但在第一时间遭到来自中国的全面且犀利反击；

第三，在“第二”的基础上，尽管特朗普政府欲将对中国基于非传统安全层面玩“摊牌式极限战略讹诈”向传统安全层面外溢的险恶用心愈发明显，但客观上已陷入“N战并1战”的特朗普政府已初露败象。

与特朗普政府内焦外困的被动战略处境相比，此时的中国正积极部署。基于“远交近攻”的策略，在积极与欧盟、俄罗斯、中东地区相关国家进行“远交”的同时，从“近攻”的角度出发，在传统安全层面，针对中国周边地区重要国家，如，越南、马来西亚、柬埔寨等，就地区安全现状以及未来可能发生的某些变化进行事先告知与通气；在非传统安全层面，针对中国周边地区重要组织，如，东盟（注：互为第一大贸易伙伴），随时准备启动“最低经济内循环”及“循环升级”。

从中国的地理条件来看，主要河流均为东西走向，与纬度走向一致。气候也随这一地理特点自然分带且相对稳定，都处于“黄金北纬30度”线附近地区。这里适合农耕，适合人类生存，可谓“上帝之选”。与之相比，印度、欧洲、俄罗斯和美国很多河流都是南北走向，地形被山脉、河流割裂，既不适合大面积农耕生产，也不利于人类迁徙或长期定居。

从市场角度来看，中国总有14亿人口，且统一，成熟，稳定的大市场。此外，中国社会政治稳定，政策统一且具有持续性。中国还拥有世界上最强大的实体制造能力以及呈爆炸性发展的高科技技术。此外，更有足以击败世界范围内胆敢通过暴力手段入侵或掠夺的任何势力的强大武装力量拱卫。

需要补充的是，东北亚方向，最低水平的“东北亚经济一体化”也是“冷启动”。也就是说，东北亚方向，一旦中国正式启动“最低经济内循环”，朝鲜会第一个被纳入“循环升级”环节之中。随后“最低经济内循环”将按照“10+1”机制（注：中国+东盟）、“10+3”机制（注：中国、日本、韩国+东盟）逐步循环升级。如果在这个过程中，俄罗斯愿意加入“东北亚经济一体化”进程，这就是“温启动”。如果日本和韩国也愿意加入“东北亚经济一体化”进程，这就是“热启动”。

值得注意的是，今年4月，在马来西亚吉隆坡举行的东盟与“10+3”机制（注：中国、日本、韩国+东盟）财政和央行副手会议时，通过了“在清迈倡议多边化机制（CMIM）下以人民币出资的法律安排”（注：日本和韩国没有反对，而是积极参与其中）。凸显出在“10+3”机制（注：中国、日本、韩国+东盟）下，各国对于加强区域金融合作的强烈诉求。由此不难看出，一个旨在“去美帝世界霸权，尤其是金融霸权化”的WTO V2.0正在形成。其与特朗普政府针对全球，不分敌我进行的“关税战”之倒行逆施形成鲜明的“道路之争”。

●不排除阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫访华的背后，有与其关系极其紧密的土耳其当局，也就是埃尔多安政府借机探风的可能性

4月17日，我们注意到，土耳其中央银行宣布将基准利率上调350个基点至46%，结束了短暂的宽松周期。

这一新闻报道说明土耳其埃尔多安政府的压力也在与日俱增。一方面，土耳其的经济尤其是金融仍然险象环生；一方面，土耳其最大反对党共和人民党的伊斯坦布尔市长埃克雷姆·伊马姆奥卢被捕后的政局动荡并未平息；另一方面，叙利亚局势后续发展，尤其是内塔尼亚胡集团妄图打造“大以色列”之野心昭然若揭（注：所谓“大以色列”的“领土范围”就包括戈兰高地以及叙利亚南部地区），让埃尔多安政府感到愈发吃力。某种意义上说，埃尔多安和特朗普的处境有些类似，都是内焦外困，骑虎难下。

在埃尔多安看来，至少从目前的中东局势来看，尽管看不到中国对土耳其产生的直接威胁，但处处都有中国的影响力。也许其通过对目前国际局势发展的特征和趋势已经深刻意识到，其想要寻找一条出路，中国是绕不开的。所以，不排除阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫访华的背后，有与其关系极其紧密的土耳其当局，也就是埃尔多安政府借机探风的可能性。

●通过中埃“文明之鹰-2025”空军联合训练，突出彰显解放军空军已成为“战略空军”

此外，值得注意的是，阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫访华正值中埃首次联合军事演习如火如荼进行之中。

在我们的观察与评估中，本次中埃联合演习明白无误的向方方面面，尤其是在中东地区横行霸道的以色列和为其充当“保护伞”的美帝，尽管中国人民解放军没有在中东驻军，但中国人民解放军有能力对中东地区相关目标施加远程，甚至超远程（防区外）有效军事威慑。

或者说，通过中埃“文明之鹰-2025”空军联合训练，突出彰显解放军空军已成为“战略空军”。埃及是非洲国家，这次演习实现了跨洲战略投送。其主要作战手段包括但不局限于，远程战略打击，远程战略奔袭，跨洲战略态势精确把控，以及与地区相关国家建立某种安全体系安排。类似近日中国和马来西亚进行的基于外交与国防层面的“2+2”对话机制。

需要补充一点的是，这次中埃联合军事演习中出现了双座版的“歼-10S”。其既可以作为教练机使用（注：埃及以后也许会进口中国的教练机，比如“猎鹰”系列，但相比之下，“歼-10S”更适合，这也为以后装备“歼-10C”做准备，甚至“歼-10C”的系列功能也会下放形成“歼-10S”的埃及版），也可以作为战机使用（注：包括发动对地，对海攻击）。比如在执行战斗任务的时候，前面的飞行员主要负责驾驶，后面的飞行员则主要负责武器系统的使用。埃及是一个人口大国，但经济上并不富裕。对埃及而言，“歼-10S”的性价比对其是有很强吸引力的。此外，不排除“歼-10S”如同“歼-20”那样，可以与无人僚机一起协同作战的可能性，也许世界上第一次有人机和无人机之间的协同作战案例就诞生在埃及。

值得注意的是，从本次演习的相关细节观察，埃及似乎有意从中国引入整个军事作战体系。而这次演习，解放军就把这套体系带入了埃及，且埃及参演部队极可能接入了这套系统，并从中获得前所未有的重要军事情报，甚至相当程度上熟悉了某种类似“A射B导”模式的超视距远程精确打击模式。这或是本次中埃演习引发世界高度关注，尤其是引起美、以高度关注的主要原因之一。可以说，中国军事力量前出中东主要国家之一的埃及，对美、以构成的战略压力很大，而任何正在承受美、以暴行之害的国家都会天然地认为中国此举是为其减压。

●就连“关税战”的始作俑者——美帝，中国照样吊打，何况其他宵小？！

在继续展开讨论前，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

4月17日，据美国媒体报道，特朗普宣称，数十个国家寻求美国减免或豁免关税，作为交换，美国准备要求这些国家采取措施限制中国制造业实力，以防中国绕开特朗普的关税政策。此外，特朗普的高级经济顾问正考虑一项措施，要求他国对从某些与中国关系密切的国家进口的商品征收二级关税。

这一新闻报道完美验证了东方时事解读就特朗普政府针对世界，尤其是针对中国发动“关税战”的真实意图和操作逻辑——加关税就是为了逼着相关国家来谈减关税，想要减关税就必须加入“关税反华同盟”，也就是逼着这些国家对中国加关税，进而“N步并1步”地强行发动“天下围攻中国”。

这本是“金融防火墙”全力搭建进程的最后一步，然而西方邪恶势力“辛辛苦苦几十年，一朝回到解放前”，“金融防火墙”全力搭建进程前面的必要步骤均未完成，尤其是原本已经基本收口的“金融防火墙-中东段”在沙特和伊朗初步达成政治和解，尤其在“叙利亚再乱”后早已溃败得不成样子。

不难看出，特朗普政府真的急了，以至于毫不掩饰地表达发动“关税战”的核心意图并敦促相关国家和美国谈判。讽刺的是，通过阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫选择访华而非加入所谓“关税反华同盟”来看，似乎特朗普政府发动“关税战”在效果上适得其反。

作为中东地区“地方王国家”的土耳其，以及临近中东地区的阿塞拜疆当然清楚，今天美国的叙利亚僵局从乌克兰僵局演化而来，而乌克兰僵局又从中美“关税战”美方惨败演化而来。显然，包括阿塞拜疆（注：及其背后的土耳其），亦或是欧盟来说，其政要如过江之鲫密集访华，某种意义上说，就是给特朗普政府看的。

方方面面在看到中国第一时间，第一个对美国进行全面犀利反击后，纷纷躲在中国这堵特朗普政府无论如何也无法绕过的“南墙”后面，即便如日本、加拿大这些原本跟随美国最紧密的“马仔”们也如同被组织起来一样，对特朗普政府扮鬼脸、吐口水，甚至讨价还价——一句“别把我逼得太紧了，否则就去投八路”让特朗普政府“哑巴吃黄连有苦说不出”。

我们愿意再次强调，针对特朗普政府对全世界，尤其是中国发动的“关税战”，中国第一时间，第一个站出来对其进行全面且犀利反击的极端正确性和极端重要性。类似当年毛泽东主席就抗美援朝进行决策一样：打得一拳开，免得百拳来！现在，中国就是要把美国打造成“样板”给全世界看——这就叫立规矩！言外之意就是，就连“关税战”的始作俑者——美帝，中国照样吊打，何况其他宵小？！你们胆敢实质性（注：比如，越南，试探过，但并非实质性的加入，也可以理解为一种“翁城效应”）跟随美帝加入所谓“关税反华同盟”，中国有能力更有决心让你们付出比跟随美帝所得之利更为高昂、惨痛的代价，以至于无法承受！

●一旦俄美就“扎波罗热核电站周边地区中立”的问题上达成某种共识，可作为双方非常接近达成某种“乌克兰停火协议”的观察指标之一

继续讨论之前我们再来看一则新闻报道。

4月20日，援引消息人士的话称，美国认为，有助于解决乌克兰冲突的条件之一是赋予扎波罗热核电站周围地区中立地位，并由华盛顿对这些地区实施控制。

在我们的观察与评估中，俄罗斯在万不得已的情况下是有可能同意美方建议的。某种意义上说，俄方借此可以一定程度上规避西方邪恶势力借以扎波罗热核电站为代表的乌克兰境内核电站对俄罗斯进行核讹诈这一大麻烦。此外，也能起到进一步在乌克兰问题上对立欧美关系的作用。当然，俄方也会提出相应条件，甚至我们可以将，一旦俄美就此达成某种共识，看作是双方非常接近达成某种“乌克兰停火协议”的观察指标之一。

需要指出的是，如果再次爆发中东战争，一定是多方在其中，其中一方的“新玩家”就是中国。

也许美国也感到了不好的预感，已经开始着手从叙利亚撤军。当然，这也有借土耳其野心对沙特施压。不过，在沙特看来，美国要走就走吧，我们可以请中国前来进行调解。更何况，美国如此做更多恐怕是欲走还留，还是在玩讹诈。

当然，这对俄罗斯来说也是一种压力，俄罗斯是打心眼儿里不希望中国增强在中东影响的。所以，美国炒作叙利亚撤军也有威胁俄罗斯的意思，如果俄罗斯还想指望美国协助其“有效重返叙利亚”，就要配合美国遏制中国的影响力，帮助美国继续维持在中东地区的影响力。

●这两个层面共同构成中国的战略定力……

在本次回顾的最后，我们就美国内部恶斗的一些最新变化做简单补充。

4月20日，据某美国知名媒体报道，在短短两周多的时间里，美国政坛出现罕见一幕：巴拉克·奥巴马、乔·拜登、比尔·克林顿三位民主党籍前总统接连公开谴责特朗普政府及其政策。有历史学家表示，在美国，前总统公开批评继任者本不寻常，而在如此短的时间内三位前总统同时这样做可能“前所未有”。

不难看出，特朗普政府承受的压力在继续增加，中国全面且犀利的反击让特朗普下不了台，以至于，纳瓦罗这位特朗普非常信任的心腹爱将（注：其在特朗普第一任期就担任要职）被踢出刚刚组建的“关税紧急应对小组”。

尽管美国历届政府在对外政策上，尤其是对华政策上是有继承的，但毕竟特朗普把事情搞砸了。也许“拜登们”会这样对特朗普说：不是我们不赞成你的反华政策，而在于按你这套做法也玩不转，再这样下去美国这个平台就玩完了，所以，需要换个玩法。

但在特朗普眼中，这显然是“拜登们”“索罗斯们”打着“为国为民”的旗号对其施行的政治讨伐。于是，恼羞成怒之下，公布了美前参议员罗伯特·肯尼迪1968年遇刺案相关文件。

如果特朗普真的点了波斯湾，华尔街恐怕会掀起惊涛骇浪。但问题在于，特朗普以死相搏，在关键时刻，作为西方资本核心资产之一的美军会听特朗普的吗？这是有先例的，一个是特朗普第一任期亲手提拔的美军参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利在关键时刻不听特朗普调遣。另一个是韩国前总统尹锡悦被弹劾事件中关键时刻不听拜登调遣。

尽管如此，国际社会必须做好最坏准备用实力警告美军，不要给他们任何幻想，不要企图玩什么核讹诈，不要玩火。这是我们近段时间多次提及未来国际社会在“爆兵”问题上或会出现“新特征”的主要原因。值得一提的是，我们现在不仅有陆基战略高能武器，更有空基战略高能武器。

类似这样的讨论此前也出现过——“可以讨论‘武力统一台湾’这一问题”，时间点在佩洛西窜台。这是一种基于当时国际局势的判断。今天也是如此，特朗普通过“关税战”对中国玩“伴随战略攻击的战略测试”或“伴随战略攻击的极限战略讹诈”（国际社会判断西方邪恶势力没有资本真玩摊牌，在西方完成对俄罗斯实质性消化前没有资本和我们“掀桌子”），甚至将其外溢到传统安全层面的情况下，在常规军事手段无法讹诈中国的情况下，不要试图通过核层面讹诈中国。

一方面，在中国全面犀利反击下，最终特朗普政府在传统安全层面不敢摊牌，非传统安全层面被中国定义为“战略讹诈”，落得个“上不着天下不着地”的尴尬处境；另一方面，在中国眼中，只要对方不是“不可逆”的选择“战略冒险，狗急跳墙”，那我们的日子还要过，该怎么样就怎么样，不会因对方一句话话就动用“杀招”，比如，收台，汇率、利率武器等，毕竟“河渡人”的战略态势能维持一天形势总体就对我们有利一天。这两个层面共同构成中国的战略定力，大家要辩证观察。

最后需要补充一点的是，美国的这位总统特朗普，其人生之中经历了多次破产，但每次都能起死回生。“法宝”就是讹诈、讹诈、再讹诈。最后不仅那些债权人纷纷给他注资打理，而且这些人还要供给特朗普吃，供给特朗普喝。就是为了让这位欠债的大爷能够更好地还钱，否则死给你看，你们一分钱都捞不回去。

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Monday, April 21, 2025, Issue No. 1230

In the context of comprehensive international situations such as the China - US "tariff war" and the joint military exercises between China and Egypt, Oriental Commentary: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will visit China

[Media Coverage]

On April 21, according to the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that at the invitation of [the Chinese side], Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will pay a state visit to China from April 22 to 24.

【Discussion Summary】

● For countries like Azerbaijan, although they will not make public and explicit choices for the time being based on their respective core interests, they probably have a clear understanding of the general trend of the development of the international situation in their hearts.

In our view, the timing of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's visit to China, especially the comprehensive international situation background of this visit, is quite thought - provoking:

First, an intense "tariff war" is underway between China and the United States. Some people regard it as a continuation of the "trade war" launched by Trump during his first term in office. In essence, it is a "financial war" between China and the United States.

Second, on the basis of the first point, the Trump administration has launched a "showdown - style extreme strategic blackmail" against China at the non - traditional security level, but it was immediately met with a comprehensive and sharp counter - attack from China.

Third, on the basis of the second point, although the Trump administration's sinister intention of spilling over the "showdown - style extreme strategic blackmail" against China at the non - traditional security level to the traditional security level has become increasingly obvious, objectively, the Trump administration, which is in a situation of "fighting N wars as one", has begun to show signs of defeat.

Compared with the passive strategic situation of being in trouble both at home and abroad of the Trump administration, China is actively making deployments at this time. Based on the strategy of "befriending distant states while attacking those nearby", while actively "befriending" countries in the European Union, Russia, and the Middle East region from the perspective of "befriending distant states", from the perspective of "attacking those nearby", at the traditional security level, for important countries in China's neighboring regions, such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, etc., prior notification and communication have been carried out regarding the current regional security situation and certain possible future changes; at the non - traditional security level, for important organizations in China's neighboring regions, such as ASEAN (Note: China is its largest trading partner), it is ready to initiate the "minimum economic internal circulation" and "circulation upgrade" at any time.

From the perspective of China's geographical conditions, all its major rivers flow from east to west, consistent with the latitudinal direction. The climate is also naturally zoned and relatively stable along this geographical feature, all located near the "golden 30 - degree north latitude" line. This area is suitable for farming and human survival, and can be regarded as "God's choice". In contrast, many rivers in India, Europe, Russia, and the United States flow from north to south, and their terrains are divided by mountains and rivers, which is neither suitable for large - scale farming production nor conducive to human migration or long - term settlement.

From the market perspective, China has a population of 1.4 billion, and its market is unified, mature, and stable. In addition, China's social and political situation is stable, its policies are unified and sustainable. China also has the world's most powerful physical manufacturing capacity and high - tech technologies that are developing explosively. Moreover, it has a powerful armed force capable of defeating any force that dares to invade or plunder through violent means around the world.

It should be added that in the Northeast Asia direction, the "minimum level of Northeast Asia economic integration" is also a "cold start". That is to say, once China officially launches the "minimum economic internal circulation" in the Northeast Asia direction, North Korea will be the first to be included in the "circulation upgrade" link. Then the "minimum economic internal circulation" will be gradually upgraded according to the "10 + 1" mechanism (Note: China + ASEAN) and the "10 + 3" mechanism (Note: China, Japan, South Korea + ASEAN). If Russia is willing to join the process of "Northeast Asia economic integration" during this process, this will be a "warm start". If Japan and South Korea are also willing to join the process of "Northeast Asia economic integration", this will be a "hot start".

It is worth noting that in April this year, at the meeting of deputy finance and central bank governors of ASEAN and the "10 + 3" mechanism (Note: China, Japan, South Korea + ASEAN) held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, the "legal arrangement of RMB contribution under the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM)" was passed (Note: Japan and South Korea did not object but actively participated in it). This highlights the strong demand of all countries under the "10 + 3" mechanism (Note: China, Japan, South Korea + ASEAN) for strengthening regional financial cooperation. From this, it is not difficult to see that a WTO V2.0 aimed at "eliminating the US world hegemony, especially its financial hegemony" is taking shape. This forms a sharp "path dispute" with the Trump administration's "tariff war" against the world without distinguishing between friends and enemies.

In our observation and assessment, as Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, he should have seen the above - mentioned changes. There are probably many countries like Azerbaijan. Although they will not make public and explicit choices for the time being based on their respective core interests, they probably have a clear understanding of the general trend of the development of the international situation in their hearts.

● It cannot be ruled out that behind Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's visit to China, there is a possibility that the Turkish authorities, who have an extremely close relationship with Azerbaijan, namely the Erdogan government, are taking this opportunity to probe the situation.

On April 17, we noticed that the Central Bank of Turkey announced an increase of 350 basis points in the benchmark interest rate to 46%, ending a brief easing cycle.

This news report indicates that the pressure on the Erdogan government in Turkey is also increasing day by day. On the one hand, Turkey's economy, especially its financial sector, is still in a precarious situation; on the other hand, the political turmoil in Turkey after the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul from the largest opposition party, the Republican People's Party, has not subsided; on the other hand, the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, especially the blatant ambition of Netanyahu's group to create a "Greater Israel" (Note: the so - called "territorial scope" of the "Greater Israel" includes the Golan Heights and southern Syria), has made the Erdogan government feel increasingly overwhelmed. In a sense, Erdogan and Trump are in somewhat similar situations, both being in a dilemma with problems at home and challenges abroad.

In Erdogan's view, at least from the current situation in the Middle East, although no direct threat from China to Turkey can be seen, Chinese influence is everywhere. Perhaps through a deep understanding of the characteristics and trends of the current international situation, he has come to realize that if Turkey wants to find a way out, it cannot bypass China. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that behind Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's visit to China, there is a possibility that the Turkish authorities, who have an extremely close relationship with Azerbaijan, namely the Erdogan government, are taking this opportunity to probe the situation.

● The joint air - force training of "Civilized Eagle - 2025" between China and Egypt highlights that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force has become a "strategic air force".

In addition, it is worth noting that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's visit to China coincides with the in - full - swing first joint military exercise between China and Egypt.

In our observation and assessment, this joint exercise between China and Egypt clearly shows to all parties, especially Israel, which is rampant in the Middle East, and the United States, which acts as its "protector", that although the Chinese People's Liberation Army does not have troops stationed in the Middle East, it has the ability to exert effective long - range and even ultra - long - range (beyond - the - theater) military deterrence on relevant targets in the Middle East.

Or rather, through the joint air - force training of "Civilized Eagle - 2025" between China and Egypt, it highlights that the PLA Air Force has become a "strategic air force". Egypt is an African country. This exercise has achieved trans - continental strategic deployment. Its main combat means include, but are not limited to, long - range strategic strikes, long - range strategic raids, precise control of trans - continental strategic situations, and the establishment of certain security system arrangements with relevant regional countries. This is similar to the "2 + 2" dialogue mechanism between China and Malaysia at the diplomatic and defense levels recently.

One more thing needs to be added. In this joint military exercise between China and Egypt, the two - seat version of the "J - 10S" made its appearance. It can be used as a trainer (Note: Egypt may import Chinese trainers in the future, such as the "Falcon" series, but compared with them, the "J - 10S" is more suitable, which also paves the way for future equipment of the "J - 10C", and even the series functions of the "J - 10C" may be downgraded to form an Egyptian version of the "J - 10S"), and it can also be used as a fighter jet (Note: including launching ground and sea attacks). For example, when carrying out combat missions, the pilot in the front is mainly responsible for flying, while the pilot in the back is mainly responsible for operating the weapon system. Egypt is a populous country, but its economy is not wealthy. For Egypt, the cost - effectiveness of the "J - 10S" is very attractive. In addition, it cannot be ruled out that the "J - 10S", like the "J - 20", can carry out coordinated operations with unmanned wingmen. Perhaps the world's first case of coordinated operations between a manned aircraft and an unmanned aircraft will be born in Egypt.

It is worth noting that from the details of this exercise, Egypt seems to intend to introduce the entire military combat system from China. And in this exercise, the PLA brought this system into Egypt, and it is very likely that the Egyptian participating troops were connected to this system, obtaining unprecedented important military intelligence and even becoming quite familiar with a certain beyond - visual - range long - range precision strike mode similar to the "A - shoot, B - guide" mode. This may be one of the main reasons why this joint exercise between China and Egypt has attracted high attention from the world, especially from the United States and Israel. It can be said that the forward deployment of Chinese military power to Egypt, one of the major countries in the Middle East, has exerted great strategic pressure on the United States and Israel, and any country that is currently suffering from the atrocities of the United States and Israel will naturally regard China's move as an act to relieve their pressure.

● Even the United States, the initiator of the "tariff war", can be easily defeated by China. Let alone those other small fry?!

Before continuing the discussion, let's take a look at another news report.

On April 17, according to US media reports, Trump claimed that dozens of countries were seeking tariff reductions or exemptions from the United States. In exchange, the United States was ready to ask these countries to take measures to restrict China's manufacturing strength to prevent China from circumventing Trump's tariff policy. In addition, Trump's senior economic advisors were considering a measure requiring other countries to impose secondary tariffs on goods imported from certain countries closely related to China.

This news report perfectly verifies the true intention and operational logic of the Oriental Times' interpretation of the "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration against the world, especially against China - imposing tariffs is to force relevant countries to negotiate tariff reductions. If they want tariff reductions, they must join the "anti - China tariff alliance", that is, force these countries to impose tariffs on China, and then forcibly launch a "global encirclement of China" in one fell swoop through multiple steps at once.

This was actually the last step in the full - scale construction process of the "financial firewall". However, the Western evil forces have "worked hard for decades and returned to square one overnight". The necessary steps in the early stage of the full - scale construction process of the "financial firewall" have not been completed. Especially, the "Middle East section" of the "financial firewall", which had basically been closed, has long since collapsed after the preliminary political reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the subsequent turmoil in Syria.

It is not difficult to see that the Trump administration is really desperate, so it has unabashedly expressed the core intention of launching the "tariff war" and urged relevant countries to negotiate with the United States. Ironically, judging from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's choice to visit China instead of joining the so - called "anti - China tariff alliance", it seems that the Trump administration's launch of the "tariff war" has had the opposite effect.

Turkey, a "regional power" in the Middle East, and Azerbaijan, which is close to the Middle East, certainly understand that today's US stalemate in Syria has evolved from the stalemate in Ukraine, and the stalemate in Ukraine has evolved from the US's disastrous defeat in the China - US "tariff war". Obviously, for countries such as Azerbaijan (Note: and its backer Turkey) or the European Union, the frequent visits of their political dignitaries to China, like a swarm of fish crossing a river, are, in a sense, a show for the Trump administration.

After seeing that China was the first country to launch a comprehensive and sharp counter - attack against the United States, all parties have hidden behind this "southern wall" that the Trump administration cannot bypass in any way. Even Japan and Canada, which were originally the closest "minions" following the United States, seem to have been organized to make faces at the Trump administration, spit at it, and even bargain - a statement like "Don't push me too hard, or I'll turn to the Eighth Route Army" has left the Trump administration "swallowing its anger without being able to retort".

We would like to emphasize once again the extreme correctness and extreme importance of China being the first country to stand up and launch a comprehensive and sharp counter - attack against the "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration against the world, especially against China. It is just like Chairman Mao Zedong's decision on the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea back then: "Fight one battle to prevent a hundred battles." Now, China wants to set an example for the whole world - this is what it means to set rules! The implication is that even the initiator of the "tariff war", the United States, can be easily defeated by China. Let alone those other small fry?! If you dare to follow the United States in joining the so - called "anti - China tariff alliance" in a substantial way (Note: For example, Vietnam has tried but it is not a substantial joining, which can also be regarded as a kind of "Wengcheng effect"), China has the ability and determination to make you pay a price that is much higher and more painful than the benefits you get from following the United States, so high that you cannot bear it!

● Once Russia and the United States reach some consensus on the issue of "neutrality in the areas around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant", it can be regarded as one of the indicators that the two sides are very close to reaching a certain "Ukraine ceasefire agreement".

Before continuing the discussion, let's take a look at another news report.

On April 20, citing sources, it was reported that the United States believes that one of the conditions conducive to resolving the Ukraine conflict is to grant neutral status to the areas around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and let Washington control these areas.

In our observation and assessment, Russia may agree to the US proposal in a desperate situation. In a sense, in this way, Russia can avoid to a certain extent the big trouble of nuclear blackmail against Russia by the Western evil forces using nuclear power plants in Ukraine, represented by the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. In addition, it can also further exacerbate the contradictions between Europe and the United States on the Ukraine issue. Of course, Russia will also put forward corresponding conditions. Even we can regard it as one of the indicators that the two sides are very close to reaching a certain "Ukraine ceasefire agreement" once they reach some consensus on this issue.

It should be pointed out that if another Middle East war breaks out, there will be many parties involved, and one of the "new players" will be China.

Perhaps the United States also has a bad premonition and has already started to withdraw its troops from Syria. Of course, this is also to put pressure on Saudi Arabia by taking advantage of Turkey's ambition. However, in Saudi Arabia's view, if the United States wants to leave, just go. We can invite China to mediate. Moreover, the United States is probably more of a "scare tactic" as it seems more likely to leave but actually wants to stay.

Of course, this is also a pressure on Russia. Russia doesn't want China to increase its influence in the Middle East from the bottom of its heart. Therefore, the US hype about withdrawing troops from Syria also has the intention of threatening Russia. If Russia still hopes that the United States will assist it in "effectively returning to Syria", it has to cooperate with the United States in containing China's influence and help the United States maintain its influence in the Middle East region.

● These two aspects together constitute China's strategic composure...

At the end of this review, we will briefly supplement some of the latest changes in the internal strife in the United States.

On April 20, according to a well - known US media report, in just over two weeks, a rare scene occurred in the US political arena: three Democratic former presidents, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and Bill Clinton, successively publicly condemned the Trump administration and its policies. A historian said that it is unusual for former presidents to publicly criticize their successors in the United States, and it may be "unprecedented" for three former presidents to do so in such a short time.

It is not difficult to see that the pressure on the Trump administration continues to increase. China's comprehensive and sharp counter - attack has made Trump unable to save face. As a result, Peter Navarro, a trusted confidant of Trump (Note: he held an important position during Trump's first term), was kicked out of the newly formed "Tariff Emergency Response Team".

Although there is an inheritance in the foreign policies of successive US administrations, especially in their policies towards China, Trump has really messed things up. Maybe the "Biden camp" would say to Trump like this: It's not that we don't agree with your anti - China policy, but your approach just doesn't work. If it continues like this, the US platform will be ruined. So, we need to change the way of playing.

However, in Trump's eyes, this is obviously a political condemnation carried out by the "Biden camp" and the "Soros camp" under the banner of "serving the country and the people". So, in a fit of pique, he released the relevant documents of the 1968 assassination of former US Senator Robert F. Kennedy.

If Trump really makes a move on the Persian Gulf, Wall Street may be in an uproar. But the question is, will the US military, as one of the core assets of Western capital, listen to Trump at the critical moment when he is fighting to the death? There are precedents for this. One is that Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US military hand - picked by Trump during his first term, did not follow Trump's orders at the critical moment. The other is the impeachment incident of South Korean former President Yoon Suk - yeol, where he did not follow Biden's orders at the critical moment.

Nevertheless, the international community must be fully prepared to warn the US military with strength not to give them any illusions, not to attempt nuclear blackmail, and not to play with fire. This is one of the main reasons why we have mentioned many times recently that there may be "new features" in the issue of "mobilizing troops" in the international community in the future. It is worth mentioning that we now not only have land - based strategic high - energy weapons but also air - based strategic high - energy weapons.

Similar discussions have also emerged before, such as "the issue of 'reunifying Taiwan by force' can be discussed" at the time when Pelosi visited Taiwan. This was a judgment based on the international situation at that time. The same is true today. When Trump uses the "tariff war" to carry out a "strategic test accompanied by strategic attacks" or a "strategic blackmail accompanied by strategic attacks" against China (the international community judges that the Western evil forces do not have the capital to really play the card of a showdown. Before the West has substantially digested Russia, they do not have the capital to "flip the table" with us), and even spills over into the traditional security level, in the case where China cannot be blackmailed by conventional military means, do not try to blackmail China at the nuclear level.

On the one hand, under China's comprehensive and sharp counter - attack, the Trump administration ultimately did not dare to make a showdown at the traditional security level, and was defined as "strategic blackmail" by China at the non - traditional security level, ending up in an embarrassing situation of being "in limbo". On the other hand, in China's view, as long as the other side does not make an "irreversible" choice of "strategic adventure and desperate actions", our lives will go on as usual. We will do things as we should and will not use "killer moves" such as reclaiming Taiwan or using exchange rate and interest rate weapons just because of the other side's words. After all, as long as the strategic situation of "helping others cross the river" can be maintained for one day, the overall situation will be in our favor for one day. These two aspects together constitute China's strategic composure, and everyone should observe dialectically.

Finally, one more thing needs to be added. This US president, Trump, has gone bankrupt many times in his life, but he has always managed to make a comeback. His "trick" is blackmail, blackmail, and more blackmail. In the end, not only did those creditors inject funds to manage his affairs, but they also had to provide food and drink for Trump, just to make this debtor better repay his debts. Otherwise, he would threaten to die, and they would get nothing.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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