2025年4月16日，星期三，第1227期

为什么说特朗普政府转而在传统安全层面威胁中国，意在重夺“美国金融市场预期引导权”？

【媒体报道】

4月13日，美媒报道称，美军印太司令部司令帕帕罗上将在国会听证会上发出警告，称西太平洋地区爆发冲突的风险正在急剧上升，美国必须做好应对准备。

帕帕罗的言论不仅涉及军事层面，还涵盖经济领域，显示出美国对潜在冲突的全面担忧。作为长期将中国视为“重大威胁”的军事指挥官，帕帕罗的警告将矛头指向中国，甚至在台海问题上屡次发表错误言论，进一步加剧了地区紧张局势。

帕帕罗的警告主要分为两部分。在军事层面，他认为一旦爆发大规模冲突，可能彻底颠覆全球经济秩序，甚至可能因局势失控而演变为核对抗。美方通过兵棋推演得出结论，若战争升级至不可控阶段，可能导致数百万人丧生。在经济层面，帕帕罗强调，即便美国最终获胜，也将付出惨重代价；而若失败，美军可能被迫退出印太地区，丧失在该区域的主导权。这一分析清晰地表明，美国已将中国视为唯一能在印太地区挑战其霸权的对手。

【讨论纪要】

●这种紧张气氛显然已经从非传统安全层面外溢到了传统安全层面

近段时间，美国总统贸易与制造业高级顾纳瓦罗的声音越来越少，相比之下，美国财长北森听的言论越来越多。这些细微的变化都体现出特朗普阵营内部矛盾逐渐深入化和公开化。正如某美国知名媒体所描述的那样，特朗普政府因对华战略而“严重分裂”。

尤其在本轮特朗普政府针对世界，尤其是针对中国发动“关税战”基本以失败告一段落后，以美债收益率飙升为代表的美国金融市场的动荡，尤其是外界传闻引发动荡的主要因素之一来自美国内部、甚至代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部，让外界再度观察到，无论是特朗普和“特朗普们”，还是美国国家利益似乎再度遭遇“土木堡之变”。

说到“土木堡之变”，就上次回顾中我们着重讨论的中央港澳工作办公室主任、国务院港澳事务办公室主任夏宝龙当天发表视频讲话内容需要补充一点的是：

其一，基于对全香港社会进行动员的层面，严厉警告那些想当汉奸的人，那些隐匿行踪伺机作乱的乱港分子，以及将香港视为“天堂”和“反华桥头堡”的间谍们，如果你们敢于在事关中国国家和人民前途命运的关键时刻投敌叛国，做有损中国核心利益的恶事，自绝于中华人民共和国，自绝于中国人民，自绝于中华民族，绝不会有什么好下场！

其二，鉴于历史原因，香港是我国国家安全之薄弱环节，在我们看来，香港也有爆发类似“土木堡之变”事件的土壤。对此，大家务必要有充分认识并保持高度警惕。

其三，如果说美财长贝森特威胁中美“经济断交”是美方再次耍花招“变脸”后，中美双方基于“摊牌”层面产生的又一次激烈对撞，那么这种紧张气氛显然已经从非传统安全层面外溢到了传统安全层面。这或是夏宝龙主任发表电视讲话的一个主要背景，且在我们看来，范围不仅涉及香港，更涉及中国的周边地区。

●在“关税战”惨败以及特朗普政府本质上陷入“N战并1战”的极端被动处境下，菲律宾这步棋美国可谓越走越重

如果我们将“关税战”看做是一场没有硝烟的战争。对于战争胜负而言，最为重要的就是“钱粮”，就是后勤补给能力。

现实情况是，在中国第一时间，第一个对美国进行全面且犀利反击后，美国金融市场有关“美国不行了，中国实力强大且绝不会退让”的氛围甚嚣尘上，尤其在特朗普政府偷偷摸摸对部分关税进行豁免、且中方仍不为所动，对其穷追猛打之后，美国金融市场甚至普遍认为，中国因素会逐渐开始引导美国金融市场的预期。这让特朗普政府感到心惊胆战。

值得一提的是，4月14日，美国前财政部长耶表示，近期金融市场的反常态势表明，投资者开始质疑美国国债的安全性。市场对美国经济政策及核心金融资产安全性“信心流失”的态势，确实令人“深感忧虑”。

为了更好的展开下面的讨论，我们来看一则新闻报道。

4月13日，美媒报道称，美军印太司令部司令帕帕罗上将在国会听证会上发出警告，称西太平洋地区爆发冲突的风险正在急剧上升，美国必须做好应对准备。

就美军印太司令部司令帕帕罗上将的讲话内容，我们想要强调的是：

第一，特朗普政府显然要夺回引导美国金融市场的主导权；

第二，在“第一”的基础上，引导舆论制造战争或在中国周边地区爆发的氛围，对冲中国对美国金融市场的影响力，减缓包括美国内部在内的方方面面对美国信心丧失的速度；

第三，在“第二”的基础上，这种对美国金融市场的主导权就是美前国务卿布林肯口中“软实力”的重要组成部分，更是目前仅余“相对霸权”的美国（西方）金融霸权的重要内容。

此外，这种主导权也体现在美国金融市场之外，体现在世界各国，尤其是一些具有代表性的国家，比如，越南，对“美国世界霸权的确在进一步衰落”的重新认识上。

4月15日，外交部官网发布，中华人民共和国和越南社会主义共和国关于持续深化全面战略合作伙伴关系、加快构建具有战略意义的中越命运共同体的联合声明。其中提到了中越双方就南海问题达成的相关共识。

声明写道：“双方就海上问题深入坦诚交换意见，强调更好管控和积极解决海上分歧，共同维护南海和平稳定”与“双方重申，继续全面有效落实《南海各方行为宣言》，在协商一致基础上早日达成有效、富有实质内容、符合包括《联合国海洋法公约》在内国际法的‘南海行为准则’”。

以上两段内容是中越双方就南海问题达成的一致看法，显然，越南当局的这种转变对美国打击很大。因为越南从来都是美国历届政府一心想要打造的“反华样板国”中的重要一个，也是特朗普政府一心想要打造的“反华关税同盟”的榜样。

在特朗普发动“关税战”以惨败告一段落后，尽管越南当局在中美之间选边站的问题上很困难，但最终还是基于自身最实在的经济利益综合权衡，选择了中国。当然，随着这次中国国家最高领导人访问越南，越方也收获颇丰，比如，有消息称，中国准备对中越铁路项目进行投资（这首先对中国更为有利，且壮大了越南北方派在越南内部政治博弈中的分量）。

由于越南是我们经常所说的，在南海问题上唯一能够给中国“找麻烦”的国家，在越南选择站队中国后，美国的南海政策的支点就只剩菲律宾一处。由此也不难推测，一旦局势发展到需要对菲律宾“动手”的地步，恐怕打击烈度会比之以往要猛烈的多。而对美国而言，由于菲律宾有失很可能导致美军退出南海，甚至退出西太，所以，在越南做出选择后，菲律宾对美国“西太安全框架”，乃至全球战略的吃重越来越大。尤其在“关税战”惨败以及特朗普政府本质上陷入“N战并1战”的极端被动处境下，菲律宾这步棋美国可谓越走越重。

4月15日，有媒体报道称，美国海军“尼米兹号”航母打击群已进入西太平洋进行定期海外部署，接替即将前往中东地区的卡尔·文森号航母。与之针锋相对的，解放军052C型驱逐舰与电子侦察船果断出击，紧盯其最新动态。有趣的是，几乎就在中美海军再次相遇西太的同时，一则有关美“杜鲁门号”航母因遭遇胡塞武装重创不得不退役的传闻引起了全世界舆论的关注。不难想象的是，如果这一传闻被最终证实，和近期美国金融市场，尤其是美债市场的动荡不安，以及特朗普“关税战”惨败一并综合观察，即便是“相对金融霸权”，美帝还剩几成？

●恐怕这些综合因素都是美国金融市场自发调整预期的主要原因所在

在继续展开讨论前，再来看一则新闻报道。

4月15日，美总统特朗普在社交平台发帖称：“他们（中国）刚刚背弃了波音的大订单，声称将'拒绝接收'已确认交付的飞机。”

此前有美国媒体报道称，中国有关方面已经要求航空公司已经暂停接收波音飞机，同时停止采购与航空器相关的美国零部件与设备。对此，白宫新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特在记者会上宣读特朗普声明称：“球在中国的球场上。中国需要与我们达成协议，而我们没有这种必要。中国和任何其他国家没有区别，只是它要大得多。”

对于白宫新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特的言论，我们并不想说太多，只问一句：既然美方仍然认为是中国有求于美国，此前那份经美商务部长亲自证实的确存在的那份与加征关税之大张旗鼓形成鲜明对比的，偷偷摸摸发出的豁免文件是怎么回事？按美国的一贯作风，如果美国占据上风，占据优势，万万没有想对手妥协、让步的道理。

对于美国媒体报道的“中国有关方面已经要求航空公司已经暂停接收波音飞机，同时停止采购与航空器相关的美国零部件与设备”的相关内容，在我们看来，这首先意味着，中国商飞的C919或已经准备好了应对美方（西方）随时断供发动机的全面准备。波音不仅涉及民用飞行器的制造，更涉及军用飞行器的制造，尽管其虚拟化同样十分严重，但毕竟也还算得上美国硕果仅存的主要从事实体制造的大型企业。如果中国真的不再需要美国波音的飞机以及相关配件，波音的灭顶之灾恐怕就真的到了。值得一提的是，在波音737MAX客机在埃塞俄比亚坠因其涉及缺陷毁后，全球第一个带头停飞的就是中国。由此不难想象，全球是否会跟随中国一股脑的抛弃波音的飞机和相关配件。

如果波音真的从中国市场全面退出，其腾出的市场份额必将重新分配，中国商飞和法国空客将是主要受益者。值得一提的是，有关波音和空客最终的命运问题，也就是到底谁死谁生的问题，是我们观察“西方资本复杂转进”进程的重要参考目标，显然，这次对波音出手，是中国主动瞄着“西方资本复杂转进”进程注入“变量”并对其走向施加影响，甚至引导预期的具体表现。其不仅激化了美国内部矛盾，更是激化了代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部矛盾，乃至美国利益与欧洲利益之间的矛盾。对于中国的这手犀利反击手段，特朗普真的感觉很痛，于是不得不对其进行回复，也就有了特朗普在社交平台污蔑中国“背弃”波音订单的一幕。

此前，特朗普刚刚通过“F-47”项目把波音“化敌为友”，在此之后，波音对特朗普而言到底是敌是友恐怕要画上一个大大的问号，这是特朗普政府在内斗问题上的严重失分。而在美国之外，包括越南这样的国家恐怕也会跟随中国，借此机会对美国讨价还价，甚至要求美国和他们以后要“好好说话”。

说到中国商飞C919，顺便提一句的是，我们已经取得了越南的“适航证”。此前，越方民航局表示，当下已经提出建议，承认中国的飞机设计认证相当于美国标准，并从4月30日起进口中国认证的飞机。不难看出，所谓“适航证”问题并是什么复杂的问题，只要你有过硬的产品，强大的国际影响力，“适航证”就是“一个戳的问题”。

随着C919走出国门的，当然还有人民币。以越南为例，大概率其会贷款购买C919，如果是软贷款，可以用越南货币进行偿还。如果是硬贷款，则必须先获得人民币，再去偿还，这样一来，人民币走向世界的步伐也将大大家快。

综上所述，在这个问题上，中国显然也在“远交近攻”，“远交”的是法国空客，“近攻”是中国周边地区，如，越南，老挝等。而孤立的则是波音，是美帝。此外，需要额外强调的是，中国不要波音和零部件内嵌了另一层意思——波音用到的中国产零部件也无法获得，比如，涉及三稀金属的零部件（中国对七种中、重稀土加工品和成品出口进行管制对美国仅存制造业的致命打击效果被进一步凸显出来，这些产品是最典型的军民两用物项），尤其是重稀土相关零部件。要知道，这些三稀金属，尤其是中、重稀土的主要储量、提炼技术和成品加工都掌握在中国手上。

需要补充的是，这种相互限制是一步一步来的，原本中美之间虽然相互卡脖子，但双方也出于自己的弱点，出于互有需求没有一次性的下死手，所以我们强调贸易战没有赢家，是两败俱伤。大家也是相互试探，一点点试探。现在，中国彻底不要波音的飞机和零部件，意思就是，中国要下决心对美国下死手，准备好几千架波音飞机作废的决心。在这背后，是我们“运20”（涡扇20）上天的底气，首先就是发动机完全准备好了，比如“长江1000”，航电系统更不在话下。所以，搞C919，C929都不在话下。

退一步说，即便脱钩断链，中国完全可以依靠自己的力量对波音飞机进行维护，比如，顺丰航空。之所以原来不能干，更多受到合同的约束。比如，在我国超算技术没有发展起来之前，美国人就以不接受合同条款就别买来约束我们。还有盾构机的发展也是这样走过来的。西方人赚的就是这类高额的服务费用，虽然飞机、超算和盾构机购买是一次性的，但维修是多次的，对他们来说这是印钞机，是摇钱树。以波音为例，尽管其不造飞机了，但基于垄断性，他们还能借收取服务费，炒股继续赚钱。现在，中国说，我不要了，我自己来，其本质打击的不仅是美国仅存的制造业，更是美国服务业，甚至美国金融稳定。

以此类推，在中国不再进口波音飞机及相关零部件的背后，是不是还有芯片、能源、农产品等呢？而当美国人开始退出中国市场后，其它国家迅速补位，比如，澳大利亚，巴西，俄罗斯等。一旦市场份额丢失，再想要拿回来就太难了。

某种意义上说，中国对美国进行贸易战是真打，但美国呢？动则海关系统崩溃，动则走私泛滥。结果就却是，美国的货中国不要，但中国的商品怎么得都能卖的出去，尤其是通过各种渠道进入美国。既然美国选择这种“摊牌”式的战略冒险，中国就抓住这个机会，穷追猛打，本质上特朗普政府已经骑虎难下，特朗普政府已经成为全世界的笑柄，这种对美国基于软实力方面的巨大损害显然不能回到过去。恐怕这些综合因素都是美国金融市场自发调整预期的主要原因所在。

●做最坏的打算并争取最好的结果，尤其为关键时刻开启“最低经济内循环”以及“循环升级”做好准备

4月14日，日本首相石破茂当天表示，在即将与美国政府举行的关税谈判中，日本不打算做出重大让步，也不会急于达成协议。

在特朗普所谓“关税反华同盟”不见踪迹，却频频出现相关国家、组织躲在中国背后在哪儿呢？大家都躲在中国背对美国“装鬼脸”“吐口水”，甚至“扔石头”的同时，我们也要客观认识到，特朗普政府炒作中国周边地区或爆发战争，中美之间可能“经济断交”等话题，对一些国家，比如，欧、俄、日等也是会有影响的，首先一条就是“渔翁”心态日益彰显。

中国在做最坏的打算并争取最好的结果，为关键时刻开启最低经济内循环以及循环升级做好准备。这一点从中国国家最高领导人本次出访的路线中也能观察的很清楚。出访路线中的越南，马来西亚和柬埔寨，恰好是中南半岛上这段“泛亚铁路”（以后还会通到孟加拉和印度）的东线。此外，还有“中线”（老挝、泰国）和“西线”（缅甸）。东盟是中国的最大贸易伙伴，比如，大飞机，东盟就是庞大市场。类似的还有芯片。需要补充的是，对越南这样国家要恩威并施。越南为了生存，不得不在南海问题上和中国达成口头一致，具体情况我们则要“听其言，观其行”。以中越铁路项目为例，其建成显然不是一朝一夕的事情，如果越南当局有所反复，中国有充分的时间和空间对项目进行“必要调整”。更何况，中越铁路项目首先链接中国广西省和越南被捕，其对中国利好更大，至少越南的北部地区就这样被圈入到了“最低经济内循环”及“循环升级”中去。

●中美这两个“金喇叭”距离决出胜负的那一条恐怕也不远了

在当前美国战略处于极端不利的基础上，不排除“拜登们”，尤其是“特朗普们，甚至欧洲利益，进一步出卖美国国家利益的可能性。对此，中国要顺势而为。所为顺势而为的意思也在于，一旦取得阶段性成果，恐怕中国不会也、更不想回到之前。

芯片和大飞机是美国仅存的不多的美方相对完整掌控产业链的行业，而随着美国金融市场开始普遍认为受中国因素影响预期越来越明显，甚至美国金融市场已经逐渐默认未来世界金融秩序的主导者是人民币而不是美元，中美这两个“金喇叭”距离决出胜负的那一条恐怕也不远了。

最后需要补充的是，据中国海事局网站消息，营口海事局发布航行警告，4月16日12时至4月17日15时，渤海北部营口海域执行军事任务，禁止驶入。

尽管我们认为特朗普和“特朗普们”位置所奋斗的一切首先是确保自身不受清算，自己所在的小利益集团能够继续坐享“荣华富贵，江山永固”，但一番激烈较量恐怕是不可避免的，行事的后续发展就其本质仍是50%对50%（也就是对方选择孤注一掷和选择主动接受“河渡人”的几率），所以，国际社会必须做好出现重大突发性事件的相关准备。对于近段时间黄渤海的相关军事演习，大家在中美“对决”从非传统安全层面已经外溢到传统安全层面的背景下，不妨密切关注是否有“大杀器”正式亮相的相关消息，所谓“大杀器”，比如，096型战略核潜艇，高能武器（瞄着即便美帝打核战争也毫无胜算）等。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Wednesday, April 16, 2025, Issue No. 1227

Why is it said that the Trump administration has turned to threatening China at the traditional security level, aiming to regain the "right to guide expectations in the US financial market"?

[Media Coverage]

On April 13, US media reported that Admiral Patrick M. Schembri, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, issued a warning at a congressional hearing, saying that the risk of conflict breaking out in the Western Pacific region is rising sharply and the United States must be prepared to respond.

Schembri's remarks covered not only the military aspect but also the economic field, showing the United States' comprehensive concerns about potential conflicts. As a military commander who has long regarded China as a "major threat", Schembri's warning targeted China. He even made repeated wrong remarks on the Taiwan Strait issue, further intensifying regional tensions.

Schembri's warning mainly consists of two parts. At the military level, he believes that once a large-scale conflict breaks out, it may completely subvert the global economic order and may even evolve into a nuclear confrontation due to the loss of control of the situation. Through war-gaming, the US side concluded that if the war escalates to an uncontrollable stage, it may lead to the deaths of millions of people. At the economic level, Schembri emphasized that even if the United States ultimately wins, it will pay a heavy price; and if it fails, the US military may be forced to withdraw from the Indo-Pacific region and lose its dominant position in the region. This analysis clearly shows that the United States has regarded China as the only opponent capable of challenging its hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region.

【Discussion Summary】

● Obviously, this tense atmosphere has spilled over from the non-traditional security level to the traditional security level

Recently, the voice of Peter Navarro, the senior counselor for trade and manufacturing of the US president, has been heard less and less, while the remarks of Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, have become more frequent. These subtle changes reflect the gradual deepening and publicization of contradictions within the Trump camp. Just as a well-known US media described it, the Trump administration is "seriously divided" over its China strategy.

Especially after this round of the "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration against the world, especially against China, basically ended in failure, the turmoil in the US financial market represented by the soaring US Treasury yields, especially the external rumors that one of the main factors causing the turmoil comes from within the United States, or even from the internal interests of US capital that represent Western capital interests, has made the outside world once again observe that both Trump and the "Trump camp", and even the national interests of the United States seem to have encountered a "Tumu Crisis" again.

Speaking of the "Tumu Crisis", one point needs to be added regarding the content of the video speech delivered by Xia Baolong, director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the Central Committee and director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council, in the previous review:

First, from the perspective of mobilizing the whole Hong Kong society, those who want to be traitors, those rioters who lurk and wait for opportunities to cause chaos, and those spies who regard Hong Kong as a "paradise" and an "anti-China bridgehead" are severely warned. If you dare to betray your country at the critical moment concerning the future and destiny of China, the country and the people, do evil things that damage China's core interests, isolate yourself from the People's Republic of China, the Chinese people and the Chinese nation, you will surely have no good end!

Second, due to historical reasons, Hong Kong is a weak link in China's national security. In our view, there is also soil in Hong Kong for an event similar to the "Tumu Crisis" to break out. Everyone must have a full understanding of this and remain highly vigilant.

Third, if the threat of "economic decoupling" between China and the United States by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is another intense collision between China and the United States based on the "showdown" level after the US side plays tricks and "changes its face" again, then this tense atmosphere has obviously spilled over from the non-traditional security level to the traditional security level. This may be a major background for Director Xia Baolong's televised speech. In our view, the scope involves not only Hong Kong but also China's surrounding areas.

● As the Trump administration suffered a disastrous defeat in the "tariff war" and essentially found itself in an extremely passive situation of being "involved in multiple battles but focusing on one", it has been making heavier and heavier moves with the Philippines.

If we regard the "tariff war" as a war without gunpowder, then for the outcome of a war, the most important things are "money and provisions", that is, the ability of logistical supply.

The reality is that after China immediately launched a comprehensive and sharp counterattack against the United States, the atmosphere prevailed in the US financial market that "the United States is no longer capable and China is strong and will never back down". Especially after the Trump administration secretly waived some tariffs while China remained unmoved and continued to press forward aggressively, the US financial market even generally believed that China would gradually begin to guide the expectations of the US financial market. This terrified the Trump administration.

It is worth mentioning that on April 14, former US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the recent abnormal situation in the financial market indicates that investors are beginning to question the security of US Treasury bonds. The situation of "loss of confidence" in the US economic policy and the security of core financial assets is indeed "deeply worrying".

To better conduct the following discussion, let's take a look at a news report.

On April 13, US media reported that Admiral Patrick M. Schembri, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, issued a warning at a congressional hearing, saying that the risk of conflict breaking out in the Western Pacific region is rising sharply and the United States must be prepared to respond.

Regarding the remarks of Admiral Patrick M. Schembri, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, we would like to emphasize the following points:

First, the Trump administration clearly wants to regain the dominant right to guide the US financial market.

Second, on the basis of "first", it aims to guide public opinion to create an atmosphere of war or outbreaks around China, offset China's influence on the US financial market, and slow down the rate at which confidence in the United States is lost both within the United States and in other aspects.

Third, on the basis of "second", this dominant right over the US financial market is an important part of what former US Secretary of State Blinken called "soft power" and is also an important part of the remaining "relative hegemony" of US (Western) financial hegemony.

In addition, this dominant right is also reflected outside the US financial market, in countries around the world, especially some representative ones. For example, Vietnam has a new understanding that "the US world hegemony is indeed further declining".

On April 15, the official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs released the Joint Statement between the People's Republic of China and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam on Continuously Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership and Accelerating the Building of a China-Vietnam Community with a Shared Future of Strategic Significance. It mentioned the relevant consensuses reached by China and Vietnam on the South China Sea issue.

The statement reads: "The two sides had an in-depth and candid exchange of views on maritime issues, emphasizing better management and active resolution of maritime differences and jointly maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea" and "The two sides reaffirmed their commitment to continue to fully and effectively implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and reach an effective, substantive and legally binding 'Code of Conduct in the South China Sea' based on international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, on the basis of consensus as soon as possible."

The above two paragraphs represent the common views of China and Vietnam on the South China Sea issue. Obviously, such a shift by the Vietnamese authorities dealt a heavy blow to the United States. Because Vietnam has always been one of the important "anti-China model countries" that successive US governments have been eager to build, and also a model for the Trump administration's "anti-China tariff alliance".

After the Trump administration's "tariff war" ended in a disastrous defeat, although it was difficult for the Vietnamese authorities to choose sides between China and the United States, they ultimately chose China based on a comprehensive consideration of their most tangible economic interests. Of course, with this visit of the top leader of the Chinese nation to Vietnam, Vietnam has also gained a lot. For example, it is reported that China is preparing to invest in the China-Vietnam railway project (this is first of all more beneficial to China and strengthens the weight of the Northern faction in Vietnam's internal political game).

Since Vietnam is the only country that we often mention that can "cause trouble" for China on the South China Sea issue, after Vietnam chose to side with China, the pivot of the US South China Sea policy remained only the Philippines. From this, it is not difficult to infer that once the situation develops to the point where it is necessary to "take action" against the Philippines, the intensity of the blow may be much more severe than before. For the United States, since the loss of the Philippines may lead to the withdrawal of the US military from the South China Sea and even from the Western Pacific, after Vietnam made its choice, the Philippines has become increasingly important to the US "Western Pacific security framework" and even its global strategy. Especially after the Trump administration suffered a disastrous defeat in the "tariff war" and essentially found itself in an extremely passive situation of being "involved in multiple battles but focusing on one", the United States is making heavier and heavier moves with the Philippines.

On April 15, media reports said that the US Navy's "Nimitz" aircraft carrier strike group has entered the Western Pacific for regular overseas deployment, replacing the "Carl Vinson" aircraft carrier that is about to head to the Middle East. In response, the Chinese People's Liberation Army's Type 052C destroyer and electronic reconnaissance ship took decisive actions and closely monitored its latest movements. Interestingly, almost at the same time as the Chinese and US navies met again in the Western Pacific, a rumor that the US "Truman" aircraft carrier was so severely damaged by the Houthi armed forces that it had to retire attracted worldwide attention. It is not difficult to imagine that if this rumor is finally confirmed, combined with the recent turmoil in the US financial market, especially the US Treasury market, and the disastrous defeat of Trump's "tariff war", even for the "relative financial hegemony", how much of the "American empire" is left?

● It is feared that all these comprehensive factors are the main reasons for the spontaneous adjustment of expectations in the US financial market.

Before continuing the discussion, let's take a look at another news report.

On April 15, US President Trump posted on social media: "They (China) have just abandoned a large Boeing order, claiming that they will'refuse to accept' the planes that have been confirmed for delivery."/p>

Previously, some US media reported that relevant Chinese authorities had required airlines to temporarily suspend the acceptance of Boeing planes and stop purchasing US parts and equipment related to aircraft. In response, White House Press Secretary Caroline Loeffler read Trump's statement at a press conference: "The ball is in China's court. China needs to reach an agreement with us, and we don't have such a need. There is no difference between China and any other country, except that it is much larger."

Regarding the remarks of White House Press Secretary Caroline Loeffler, we don't want to say much. We just have one question: Since the US side still thinks that China needs the United States, what about the waiver document that was secretly issued, which is in sharp contrast to the fanfare of imposing tariffs and was personally confirmed by the US Commerce Secretary? According to the consistent practice of the United States, if the United States has the upper hand and an advantage, there is no reason at all to expect the opponent to compromise and make concessions.

Regarding the relevant content reported by US media that "relevant Chinese authorities have required airlines to temporarily suspend the acceptance of Boeing planes and stop purchasing US parts and equipment related to aircraft", in our view, this first means that COMAC's C919 is probably already fully prepared to deal with the US (Western) sudden suspension of engine supply. Boeing is not only involved in the manufacturing of civil aircraft but also in the manufacturing of military aircraft. Although its virtualization is also very serious, it is still one of the few large-scale enterprises in the United States that are mainly engaged in physical manufacturing. If China really no longer needs Boeing planes and related accessories, Boeing's doomsday may really have come. It is worth mentioning that after the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashed due to defects in the Boeing 737 MAX, China was the first in the world to ground the plane. From this, it is not difficult to imagine whether the world will follow China and abandon Boeing planes and related accessories altogether.

If Boeing really withdraws completely from the Chinese market, its market share will surely be redistributed, and COMAC and Airbus of France will be the main beneficiaries. It is worth mentioning that regarding the ultimate fate of Boeing and Airbus, that is, who will die and who will survive, it is an important reference target for us to observe the process of "complex Western capital transfer". Obviously, this move against Boeing is a concrete manifestation of China actively aiming at the process of "complex Western capital transfer" to inject "variables", influence its direction and even guide expectations. It has not only intensified the internal contradictions within the United States but also intensified the internal contradictions among US capital interests representing Western capital interests and even the contradictions between US interests and European interests. Trump really felt the pain from China's sharp counterattack, so he had to respond, which led to Trump's smear that China "abandoned" the Boeing order on social media.

Previously, Trump had just "turned enemies into friends" with Boeing through the "F-47" project. After that, whether Boeing is an enemy or a friend to Trump is probably a big question mark, which is a serious loss for the Trump administration in terms of internal strife. Outside the United States, countries like Vietnam may also follow China's lead to bargain with the United States and even demand that the United States "speak nicely" to them in the future.

Speaking of COMAC's C919, by the way, we have already obtained Vietnam's "airworthiness certificate". Previously, the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam said that it has proposed to recognize China's aircraft design certification as equivalent to US standards and will import Chinese-certified aircraft starting from April 30. It is not difficult to see that the so-called "airworthiness certificate" issue is not a complicated problem. As long as you have high-quality products and strong international influence, the "airworthiness certificate" is just a "stamp issue".

Along with the C919 going global, of course, there is also the renminbi. Taking Vietnam as an example, it is highly likely that it will borrow to buy the C919. If it is a soft loan, it can be repaid in Vietnamese currency. If it is a hard loan, it must first obtain renminbi and then repay it. In this way, the pace of the renminbi going global will also be greatly accelerated.

In summary, on this issue, China is clearly also practicing the strategy of "befriend the distant and attack the near". The "distant" is Airbus of France, and the "near" is the regions around China, such as Vietnam, Laos, etc. The isolated one is Boeing and the United States. In addition, it should be emphasized that China's rejection of Boeing and its parts also implies another meaning - the Chinese-made parts used in Boeing cannot be obtained either, such as parts involving rare earth metals (China's control over the export of seven kinds of medium and heavy rare earth processed products and finished products has further highlighted the fatal impact on the remaining manufacturing industry in the United States. These products are the most typical dual-use items), especially those related to heavy rare earths. It should be noted that the main reserves, refining technologies and finished product processing of these rare earth metals, especially medium and heavy rare earths, are all in China.

It should be added that this kind of mutual restriction comes step by step. Although China and the United States have been restricting each other, both sides have not taken a desperate approach at one time due to their own weaknesses and mutual needs. That's why we emphasize that there are no winners in a trade war and it is a lose-lose situation. Everyone is just probing each other bit by bit. Now, China's complete rejection of Boeing planes and parts means that China is determined to take a desperate approach against the United States and is prepared for the scrapping of thousands of Boeing planes. Behind this is the confidence of our "Yun-20" (WS-20) taking off. First of all, the engine is fully ready, such as the "C919", and the avionics system is even more worry-free. Therefore, developing C919 and C929 is not a problem.

To put it another way, even if there is decoupling and supply chain disruption, China can completely rely on its own strength to maintain Boeing planes. For example, SF Airlines. The reason why it couldn't do it before was more due to contractual constraints. For example, before the development of China's supercomputing technology, the Americans restricted us by saying that if we didn't accept the contract terms, we wouldn't buy it. The development of shield machines has also gone through such a process. What Westerners earn is such high service fees. Although the purchase of airplanes, supercomputers and shield machines is a one-time thing, maintenance is multiple times. For them, this is a money-making machine and a cash cow. Taking Boeing as an example, although it no longer manufactures airplanes, based on its monopoly, it can still make money by charging service fees and stock trading. Now, China says that it doesn't want it and will do it itself. In essence, it strikes not only at the remaining manufacturing industry in the United States but also at the US service industry and even US financial stability.

By analogy, behind China's no longer importing Boeing planes and related parts, are there also chips, energy, agricultural products, etc.? And when Americans start to withdraw from the Chinese market, other countries quickly fill the gap, such as Australia, Brazil, Russia, etc. Once the market share is lost, it will be very difficult to get it back.

In a sense, China's trade war with the United States is a real fight, but what about the United States? Its customs system collapses at the slightest provocation, and smuggling is rampant. As a result, the goods of the United States are not wanted in China, but Chinese goods can be sold everywhere, especially through various channels into the United States. Since the United States has chosen this kind of "showdown" strategic adventure, China seizes this opportunity to pursue and strike hard. In essence, the Trump administration is already in a dilemma and has become a laughingstock all over the world. This huge damage to the soft power of the United States obviously cannot be reversed. It is feared that all these comprehensive factors are the main reasons for the spontaneous adjustment of expectations in the US financial market.

● Make the worst-case scenario preparations and strive for the best outcome, especially by getting ready to initiate the "minimum economic internal circulation" and its "circulation upgrade" at critical moments.

On April 14, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on the same day that in the upcoming tariff negotiations with the US government, Japan does not intend to make major concessions and will not rush to reach an agreement.

Where has Trump's so-called "tariff anti-China alliance" disappeared to? Instead, relevant countries and organizations are often seen hiding behind China. While everyone is hiding behind China, "making faces" at the United States, "spitting" at it, or even "throwing stones", we also need to objectively recognize that the Trump administration's hype about topics such as the possible outbreak of war in China's surrounding areas and the potential "economic decoupling" between China and the United States will also have an impact on some countries, such as Europe, Russia, and Japan. The first manifestation is the increasingly prominent "fisherman's mentality".

China is making the worst-case scenario preparations and striving for the best outcome, getting ready to initiate the minimum economic internal circulation and its circulation upgrade at critical moments. This can be clearly observed from the itinerary of the visit by the top leader of China. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia in the itinerary are precisely the eastern line of the "Trans-Asian Railway" on the Indochina Peninsula (which will later extend to Bangladesh and India). In addition, there is also the "central line" (Laos, Thailand) and the "western line" (Myanmar). ASEAN is China's largest trading partner. For example, for large aircraft, ASEAN is a huge market. The same goes for chips. It should be added that for countries like Vietnam, a combination of kindness and firmness should be applied. For survival, Vietnam has to reach a verbal agreement with China on the South China Sea issue. As for the specific situation, we should "listen to what they say and watch what they do". Taking the China-Vietnam railway project as an example, its completion is clearly not something that can be achieved overnight. If the Vietnamese authorities have any reversals, China has ample time and space to make "necessary adjustments" to the project. Moreover, the China-Vietnam railway project first connects Guangxi in China and Vietnam. It is more beneficial to China. At least the northern region of Vietnam has been incorporated into the "minimum economic internal circulation" and its "circulation upgrade".

● The showdown between the two "golden trumpets" of China and the United States may not be far off.

On the current extremely unfavorable basis of the US strategy, it cannot be ruled out that the "Biden camp", especially the "Trump camp", and even European interests may further sell out US national interests. In this regard, China should go with the flow. What "going with the flow" means is that once China achieves phased results, it probably will not and does not want to return to the previous state.

Chips and large aircraft are among the few industries in which the United States still has relatively complete control over the industrial chain. As the US financial market generally believes that the impact of China-related factors on expectations is becoming increasingly evident, and even the US financial market has gradually come to accept that the dominant currency of the future world financial order will be the renminbi rather than the US dollar, the showdown between the two "golden trumpets" of China and the United States may not be far off.

Finally, it should be added that according to the website of the China Maritime Safety Administration, the Yingkou Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning. From 12:00 on April 16 to 15:00 on April 17, military tasks will be carried out in the Yingkou sea area in the northern Bohai Sea, and entry is prohibited.

Although we believe that what Trump and the "Trump camp" are striving for in their positions is first and foremost to ensure that they themselves are not subject to liquidation and that the small interest groups they belong to can continue to enjoy "wealth and honor and eternal stability", a fierce struggle is probably inevitable. The essence of the subsequent development of their actions is still a 50-50 chance (that is, the chance that the other side will choose to go all in or choose to actively accept the "crossing of the river by ferry"). Therefore, the international community must be prepared for major unexpected events. For the recent military exercises in the Yellow and Bohai Seas, in the context where the "confrontation" between China and the United States has spilled over from the non-traditional security level to the traditional security level, you may pay close attention to whether there are any news about the official debut of "killer weapons". The so-called "killer weapons" include, for example, the Type 096 strategic nuclear submarine, high-energy weapons (aimed at ensuring that even if the United States wages a nuclear war, it has no chance of winning), etc.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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