2025年4月14日，星期一，第1225期

从美媒曝光有美金融机构在本轮美债抛售潮中作壁上观，甚至落井下石，小谈美内部再度出现“土木堡之变”的苗头

【媒体报道】

4月13日，商务部新闻发言人就美方豁免部分产品的“对等关税”答记者问。

商务部新闻发言人表示，美东时间4月12日，美方公布相关备忘录，豁免计算机、智能手机、半导体制造设备、集成电路等部分产品的“对等关税”，中方正在对有关影响进行评估。

我们注意到，这是继美方4月10日暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征收高额“对等关税”以来，对相关政策做出的第二次调整。应该说，这是美方修正单边“对等关税”错误做法的一小步。以一纸行政令出台所谓“对等关税”，不仅违背基本的经济规律和市场规律，也是对国家间互补合作和供需关系的无视。“对等关税”自4月2日推出以来，不仅没有解决美自身任何问题，反而严重破坏国际经贸秩序，严重干扰企业正常生产经营和人民生活消费，损人不利己。中方对中美经贸关系的立场是一贯的。贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。中国有句古话，“解铃还须系铃人”。我们敦促美方正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音，在纠错方面迈出一大步，彻底取消“对等关税”的错误做法，回到相互尊重，通过平等对话解决分歧的正确道路上来。

【讨论纪要】

●随特朗普对华极限讹诈战略的失败而来的是中美关系的进一步恶化，且首先会在美国内部恶斗的问题上迅速发酵

4月11日，商务部网站消息，商务部新闻发言人就中方针对美方再次提高对华关税实施反制答记者问。

发言人表示，美方对华轮番加征畸高关税已经沦为数字游戏，在经济上已无实际意义，只会更加暴露出美方将关税工具化、武器化，搞霸凌胁迫的伎俩，并沦为笑话。如果美方继续关税数字游戏，中方将不予理会。但是，倘若美方执意继续实质性侵害中方权益，中方将坚决反制，奉陪到底。

对于商务部发言人的表态，我们想说的是：

第一，由于此前中国拒绝取消报复性关税，所以美国对来自中国的商品继续加征50%的关税。但从经济学角度观察，关税加到这个程度，如商务部发言人说的那样，已经沦为数字游戏，在经济上已无实际意义。也就是说，相当于中美之间事实上在经济层面已经“断交”，中国不会再进口任何美国商品；

第二，结合商务部发言人的这一表态再去观察特朗普自始至终都没有接到的“来自中方的电话”，全世界都懂了，中国在应对“关税战”的问题上，态度未曾有任何改变且只有四个字——奉陪到底！

第三，如果特朗普先生仍然听不懂中国商务部发言人说的是什么，仍然认为“中方一定会打电话给他”，那么中国外交部驻港公署的一番表态已经极其直白地将中方的意思表示清楚。我们不妨将这段话原原本本抄送给特朗普先生：

美方声称“中方想达成交易，但不知如何开始。我们在等他们（中国）的电话”。事实是美方不知如何开始，既不懂如何与中国相处，更不懂正确的国与国相处之道，倒是醉心于霸凌、讹诈全世界的“艺术”。我们要正告美方：妄图挥舞关税大棒逼迫世界各国打电话认输的野蛮人永远不要指望等到中国的电话。*****在今年1月同美国当选总统特朗普通话时明确指出，中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢，对抗冲突不应是我们的选择，双方要本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢原则，加强合作。遗憾的是，美方没有听取中方语重心长的劝告。如美方真有诚意与中方就关税问题进行对话，就应立即纠正错误做法，拿出平等、尊重、互惠的态度。如果美方一意孤行，中方必将奉陪到底；

第四，需要补充的是，此前，堂堂美国副总统万斯声称“美国向‘中国乡巴佬（Chinese Peasants）’借钱，来购买‘中国乡巴佬’制造的东西”。对此，外交部发言人林剑已公开回复：中方对中美经贸关系的立场已经讲得很清楚。听到这位副总统说出这样无知又缺乏礼貌的话，令人诧异，也感到悲哀。所以，我们认为，外交部驻港公署将特朗普政府称为“野蛮人”十分恰当。

通过上面的一系列官方回复，也许特朗普内心已经非常清楚且痛苦地认识到，这一次，他的“流氓本色”真的踢到了“铁板”上，讹诈战略失败了。而随之而来的则是中美关系的进一步恶化，且首先会在美国内部恶斗的问题上迅速发酵。

●某种意义上说，“特朗普们”和美国平台在恶斗不断之下，已经遭遇“土木堡之变”

为了更好展开讨论，我们来看两则新闻报道。

4月13日，中国外交部发言人官方海外账号转发一则苹果CEO库克接受采访的视频。视频中，库克解释了苹果公司选择在中国生产的原因。

“我们对中国存在误解，大家都认为，外国公司选择中国是因为中国的劳动力成本低，我不确定他们去的中国哪个地方，但事实是，中国在很多年前就不再是低劳动力成本的国家了。从供应链的角度来看，这不是我们去中国的原因，原因在于技术，技术数量的集中以及技术类型的丰富。苹果生产需要非常先进的工艺，这里的工艺技术非常精湛。在美国，召集工程师会议，但我不确定我们是否能凑够一个房间。而在中国，来的工程师可以挤满好几个足球场，因为这里的职业技能非常非常深厚。”库克说。

4月13日，美国桥水基金创始人达利欧就特朗普关税问题接受媒体采访。他表示，美国确实需要制造业回流，但问题在于，当前人口的文化水平无法满足再工业化的要求。达利欧称，他同意特朗普“美国没有制造业”的这一说法，但究其原因是美国的结构性问题。他进一步指出，60%的美国人阅读水平低于小学生6年级，这种人口结构很难具备生产力。

对于库克和达利欧的相关言论，我们想要着重强调的是：

第一，苹果CEO库克可以看作是美国产业资本的典型代表人物。而桥水基金创始人达利欧则是美国金融资本的典型代表人物。然而，就是这两位通过各自不同的角度阐述了同一个事实：制造业回流美国已无可能。需要补充的是，达利欧反映了美国乃至整个西方国家普遍存在的教育状况，其状态非常类似中国清代的愚民政策，真相让人咋舌。不仅反映了整个西方教育的本质，而且存在重大问题。而制造力回流美国就此遭遇一个巨大且无法逾越的障碍——美国没有足够的高素质劳动力支持制造业的回流。当然，西方曾梦想通过AI技术手段提高劳动力素质，进而让制造业回流美国成为可能（值得注意的是，如果西方能够在AI技术方面领先，首先在于军事意义，类似中国古代的游牧民族，尽管经济文化落后，但只要军事力量足够强大，也可碾压中原大国。经济实力虽然是军事实力的前提，但经济实力不等于军事实力。类似现象，在中国历史上多次出现过，显然有其必然性）。但在“DeepSeek+华为”（华为提供了硬件软件基础，AI方面则主要基于“做事”，而DeepSeek主要基于“写诗作画”，两者结合可谓天下无双。我们坚信，中国的AI技术会领先世界。此外，我们强调，AI是一种不可阻挡的革命性力量，谁阻挡，谁就是反动。担心是必要的，但要在发展中去解决。中国不发展AI技术，西方就会发展。尤其在军事层面，中国可能遭遇“第二次鸦片战争”。值得一提的是欧美在这方面就有密切配合，美国发展技术，欧洲制定法律）模式的猛烈冲击下，这一梦想已经被击得粉碎；

在“第一”的基础上，美国总统特朗普所谓“让美国再次伟大，制造业回流美国”都是鬼话。特朗普在重新坐上总统宝座后，重点工作只有一个，那就是如何摆平内部恶斗，尽一切可能不让自己和其所在的小利益集团受到清算，包括特朗普、共和党，以及“特朗普们”日思夜想的一切就是如何将权力固化下来；

第三，在“第二”的基础上，在特朗普意识到其对华“关税战”实际上已经失败后，最让其恐惧的事情发生了——美国的金融维稳似乎出了大问题，典型代表事件就是美债收益率的飙升！且特朗普从中读出了让其细思极恐的信号。

第四，在“第三”的基础上，所谓“让特朗普感到细思极恐”的信号就是：

其一，网传日本抛售美债导致美债收益率飙升的可能性很低；

其二，中国目前暂时用不到抛售美债的方式反制美国“关税战”或主动对美国发动金融攻击。在中国看来，只要市场反应就足够了；

其三，所谓“只要市场反应就足够了”的意思就在于，美国内部有人会去做，比如，拜登们、索罗斯们，对特朗普关税政策持批评态度的方方面面，甚至包括“特朗普们”中的一些人。有传闻称，面对美债收益率飙升，美国金融市场中，有人选择坐视不管，有人在推波助澜，有人选择按兵不动，甚至有人选择落井下石！

其四，“土木堡之变”的味道再次浓烈了起来。“特朗普们”和美国平台在恶斗不断之下，已经遭遇“土木堡之变”。这或是特朗普在“关税战”问题上突然认怂的主要原因。

●尽管百般狡辩，尽管低调处理，但一个不争的事实就是，在“关税战”的问题上，特朗普政府认怂了

对于特朗普所谓的“灵活性”，中国商务部给出了这样的回复。

4月13日，商务部新闻发言人表示，美东时间4月12日，美方公布相关备忘录，豁免计算机、智能手机、半导体制造设备、集成电路等部分产品的“对等关税”，中方正在对有关影响进行评估。发言人说，我们注意到，这是继美方4月10日暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征收高额“对等关税”以来，对相关政策做出的第二次调整。应该说，这是美方修正单边“对等关税”错误做法的一小步。

有趣的是，同样在4月13日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，美政府并未宣布任何关税“豁免”，而是将其移到其他“关税篮子”。同一天，美国商务部长卢特尼克在接受美媒体采访时表示，特朗普政府针对手机、电脑、内存芯片等电子产品的关税豁免只是“暂时性的”。卢特尼克称，这些产品很快将被纳入所谓的“半导体类别”中，被征收一种特殊的重点关税。

值得一提的是，与此前高调宣布一系列加征关税政策不同，特朗普政府在“关税战”问题上的认怂，这一引发舆论广泛关注的“重磅新闻”却是在周末深夜发布，不仅官网不见链接，记者求证不应，而且文件内容相当绕口。

通过上述内容，大家不难得出一个明确的答案，尽管百般狡辩，尽管低调处理，但一个不争的事实就是，在“关税战”的问题上，特朗普政府认怂了。

需要强调的是，在我们的观察与评估中，特朗普发动“关税战”首先服务于内斗，或者说，服务于特朗普及“特朗普们”谋求独裁统治。其中，加关税只是手段，极限讹诈中国，以及内嵌在极限讹诈过程中的反华才是目的。这一歹毒意图通过对越南商品增加高达46%关税可以观察得非常清楚：特朗普政府就是要逼着越南选边站，逼着越南对中国加关税，妄图“N步并1步”强推“天下围攻中国”。当然，在中国第一时间，第一个站出来对美国进行全面且犀利的反击后，当“关税战”这一手段现在开始反噬“服务于特朗普及‘特朗普们’谋求独裁统治”这一核心战略目标的时候，必须对其进行调整。

调整可以不包括中国，但包不包括越南？如果包括越南，那就是间接对华关税豁免。还有墨西哥，作为美国最大的贸易伙伴以及中国商品转口美国规模最大的国家，“关税战”开启至今就从未将墨西哥纳入其中。所以，一提豁免就是认怂。现在的问题是，不是特朗普想不想和中国谈，而是中国不想搭理他。可见，美国人也是很要脸的。

值得一提的是，攻击特朗普政府关税政策的不仅有美国民主党人，也有美国共和党人，比如，特朗普第一任期的副总统彭斯，华尔街的大金主们，甚至有“美利坚一字并肩王”之称的马斯克。

●停止“关税战”，撤去极限战略讹诈，是特朗普政府现在首先必须做的事情，否则，中国连西太相关话题都不会与美国谈

在本次讨论的最后，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

4月14日，欧盟首席谈判代表、欧盟负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员谢夫乔维奇预抵达华盛顿，意图游说美国总统特朗普降低美国已对价值3800亿欧元的欧盟出口产品征收的关税。有知情人士透露称，在谈判的同时，欧盟正在加紧努力在其他地区达成自由贸易协定。欧盟官员认为，欧盟与美国的关系永远不会回到过去。而早在4月10日，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟将进一步转向亚洲。

现在，全世界已经达成一个共识，特朗普政府刚刚对世界，尤其针对中国发动的“关税战”，已经失败。剩下的问题就是，特朗普政府打算什么时候把那份在周末深夜发布，不仅官网不见链接，记者求证不应，而内容相当绕口的豁免文件正式挂在美国政府网站上。

需要提醒特朗普先生的是，你可以基于所谓“灵活性”把“不要脸”玩出花，也可以对本质上就是妥协、认怂的豁免文件不认账，但似乎美国的内斗不等人！

有消息称，美国司法部当地时间11日表示，一名宾夕法尼亚州男子被指控在网上威胁暗杀美国总统特朗普以及其他美政府官员，目前已被拘留。巧合的是，这名叫蒙珀的嫌犯来自宾夕法尼亚州的巴特勒市。而在去年7月13日，特朗普在巴特勒一次竞选集会上遭遇“未遂刺杀”，特朗普右耳被子弹击伤，现场一名观众死亡，另外两名观众重伤，枪手被特勤局人员当场打死。

此外，国际局势的演化同样不等人。从那位在欧洲人眼中就是“美国人的一条狗”的欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的最新表态来看，从俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫“在与美国的接触中，无论是私下会谈还是电话交谈，都没有涉及中俄关系这一问题，甚至没有任何暗示”的最新言论来看，显然，包括欧盟在内的方方面面都从中国商务部对那份“官网不见链接，记者求证不应，而内容相当绕口”的豁免文件的正式回复中检出了正确信号：你们（如：欧盟、俄罗斯等）该干什么做什么，中美关系不会有任何变化，本质上，特朗普政府除了在发动“关税战”认错问题上迈出一大步之外，没有其他选择。

值得一提的是，我们注意到近日有关韩国媒体报道称的，如果发动内乱罪名成立，现年64岁的尹锡悦可能面临终身监禁，甚至死刑的新闻报道。

对此，我们想说的是，无论尹锡悦下场如何，只是基于传统安全层面的问题，且在朝鲜半岛问题上，美国大可把戏演给朝鲜看，中国无所谓。在我们看来，停止“关税战”，撤去极限战略讹诈，是特朗普政府现在首先必须做的事情，否则，中国连西太相关话题都不会与美国谈。

●在客观上特朗普加速了美帝世界霸权，尤其是金融霸权的没落进程

美国这一怂，可以说，成为历史性的一瞬间，至少在经济层面，公认的，美国已经不再是世界第一了。还是那句话，中国商务部也把特朗普政府的退路封得死死地，除了在改正“关税战”错误的问题上迈出一大步，本质上没有其他选择。

而从美国和墨西哥边境近段时间传出的种种奇葩消息来看，昔日发生在中国明代的“土木堡之变”，似乎在今天已经变成了美国海关的公开放水，美墨边境的走私无人机。

不过，这对于特朗普本人而言，也许并不算什么，甚至不排除特朗普和“特朗普们”暗中建立“走私渠道”的可能性。换言之，如果现在的美利坚合众国的存在妨碍了特朗普和“特朗普们”，他们并不介意拆掉“美国平台”。

此外，值得大家密切关注的是，在这一特朗普和“特朗普们”眼中的所谓“重建美国”的过程中，或也内嵌了基于“西方资本利益复杂转进”层面，削弱美国国家利益层面之“制约因子”的某种考量。而从特朗普政府发动“贸易战”的核心目标和整个过程来看，其显然内嵌了“金融防火墙”之构建进程和“西方资本利益复杂转进”进程，非常类似于当年美国“微调后”的中东政策，同样是以牺牲美国国家利益为代价。只不过这一次似乎比上一次要彻底得多。

在我们的观察与评估中，某种意义上说，在特朗普发动“关税战”并事实上已经彻底失败后，全世界都回不到过去了。而中国站在自己的角度，恐怕也不愿意回到过去。尽管因为中美“关税战”，中国也会慢慢启动“最低经济内循环”，但“循环升级”进程或会更加顺利，难度相对较低一些。大致循环升级“路线图”会遵循从“10+1”机制，到“10+3”机制，再到RCEP，最终到“一带一路”。这一进程也是逐步构建国际社会主导下的WTO V2.0的过程，且在这个版本的WTO中，唯独没有美国。所以，如果特朗普政府愿意就这样耗着，国际社会不在乎，在客观上特朗普加速了美国没落的进程。当然，特朗普如果彻底认怂了，迈出“关税战”错误改正问题上的一大步，我们也会对等撤销对美加征的关税，继续“河渡人”即可。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Monday, April 14, 2025, Issue No. 1224

### From the Exposure by US Media of Financial Institutions' Non-intervention and Even Opportunistic Behavior in the Current US Treasury Bond Sell-off Wave, a Glimpse of the Signs of a Potential "Tumu Crisis" Reemerging within the US

[Media Coverage]

On April 13, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions regarding the US exemption of "reciprocal tariffs" on some products.

The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce said that on April 12, Eastern Time, the US side announced a relevant memorandum, exempting "reciprocal tariffs" on some products such as computers, smartphones, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and integrated circuits. China is currently assessing the relevant impacts.

It should be noted that this is the second adjustment to the relevant policy since the US side announced on April 10 the deferral of imposing high "reciprocal tariffs" on some trading partners. It can be said that this represents a small step by the US side in correcting the wrong practice of unilateral "reciprocal tariffs". Issuing so-called "reciprocal tariffs" by an executive order not only violates basic economic and market laws but also disregards the complementary cooperation and supply-demand relationships between countries. Since the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, they have not solved any problems for the US itself. Instead, they have seriously disrupted the international economic and trade order, severely interfered with the normal production, operation of enterprises, and the consumption of people's lives, causing harm to others without benefiting oneself. China's position on Sino-US economic and trade relations has always been consistent. There are no winners in a trade war, and protectionism leads nowhere. There is an old Chinese saying, "It takes the person who tied the bell to untie it." We urge the US side to face up to the rational voices within the international community and among domestic parties, take a big step in correcting mistakes, completely abandon the wrong practice of "reciprocal tariffs", and return to the right path of mutual respect and resolving differences through equal dialogue.

【Discussion Summary】

● Following the failure of Trump's strategy of extreme extortion against China, Sino-US relations have further deteriorated, and this is likely to rapidly ferment in the form of internal strife within the US first.

On April 11, a message from the Ministry of Commerce website showed that a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions regarding China's countermeasures against the US's further increase in tariffs on Chinese goods.

The spokesperson said that the US's successive imposition of exorbitant tariffs on Chinese goods has degenerated into a numbers game, which has no practical economic significance. It only further exposes the US's tactics of weaponizing and using tariffs as a tool for bullying and coercion, becoming a joke. If the US continues this numbers game on tariffs, China will ignore it. However, if the US insists on substantially infringing on China's rights and interests, China will resolutely counteract and accompany it to the end.

Regarding the statement of the Ministry of Commerce spokesperson, we would like to say the following:

First, due to China's refusal to cancel retaliatory tariffs, the US has continued to impose a 50% tariff on goods from China. However, from an economic perspective, as the Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said, when tariffs reach this level, they have degenerated into a numbers game with no real economic significance. That is to say, in essence, China and the US have "severed economic ties", and China will no longer import any US goods.

Second, when we combine the stance of the Ministry of Commerce spokesperson with the fact that Trump has never received the "call from the Chinese side" that he has been waiting for, the whole world understands that China's attitude in dealing with the "tariff war" has not changed at all, and it can be summed up in four words - accompany to the end!

Third, if Mr. Trump still doesn't understand what the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce of China is saying and still thinks that "China will definitely call him", then a statement from the Liaison Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong has made China's position extremely clear. Let's reproduce this passage exactly as it is and send it to Mr. Trump:

The US side claims that "China wants to reach a deal but doesn't know how to start. We are waiting for their (China's) call." The fact is that the US side doesn't know how to start. It neither understands how to get along with China nor the correct way for countries to interact. Instead, it is obsessed with the "art" of bullying and extorting the whole world. We solemnly warn the US side: The barbarians who attempt to wave the tariff stick and force countries around the world to call and admit defeat will never expect to receive a call from China. ***** When talking with US President-elect Trump in January this year, General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly pointed out that the essence of Sino-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win. Confrontation and conflict should not be our choice. Both sides should strengthen cooperation based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation. Regrettably, the US side did not heed China's earnest advice. If the US side really has the sincerity to have a dialogue with China on tariff issues, it should immediately correct its wrong practices and adopt an attitude of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. If the US side insists on going its own way, China will surely accompany it to the end.

Fourth, it should be added that previously, the honorable US Vice President Vance claimed that "the United States borrows money from 'Chinese peasants (Chinese Peasants)' to buy things made by 'Chinese peasants'". In response, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian publicly replied: China's position on Sino-US economic and trade relations has been clearly stated. It is surprising and sad to hear such ignorant and impolite remarks from this vice president. Therefore, we believe that it is very appropriate for the Liaison Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong to call the Trump administration "barbarians".

Through a series of official responses above, perhaps Trump has clearly and painfully realized in his heart that this time, his "rogue nature" has really hit a "hard wall", and his extortion strategy has failed. Subsequently, Sino-US relations have further deteriorated, and this is likely to rapidly ferment in the form of internal strife within the US first.

● In a sense, the "Trump camp" and US platforms have encountered a "Tumu Crisis" amidst continuous infighting.

To better conduct the discussion, let's take a look at two news reports.

On April 13, the official overseas account of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson reposted a video of an interview with Apple CEO Cook. In the video, Cook explained the reasons why Apple chooses to produce in China.

"We had misunderstandings about China. Everyone thinks that foreign companies choose China because of its low labor costs. I'm not sure which part of China they went to, but the fact is that China has not been a low-labor-cost country for many years. From the perspective of the supply chain, this is not the reason we go to China. The reason lies in technology - the concentration of a large number of technologies and the richness of technology types. Apple's production requires very advanced processes, and the craftsmanship here is extremely exquisite. In the US, when we convene an engineer meeting, I'm not sure if we can gather enough people to fill a room. But in China, the engineers who come can fill several football fields because the vocational skills here are extremely profound," said Cook.

On April 13, Ray Dalio, the founder of US Bridgewater Associates, was interviewed by the media about Trump's tariff issue. He said that the US does need to bring manufacturing back, but the problem is that the current cultural level of the population cannot meet the requirements of reindustrialization. Dalio agreed with Trump's statement that "the US has no manufacturing industry", but he attributed it to the structural problems in the US. He further pointed out that 60% of Americans have a reading level below that of sixth-grade elementary school students, and such a population structure is unlikely to be productive.

Regarding the relevant remarks of Cook and Dalio, we would like to emphasize the following points:

First, Apple CEO Cook can be regarded as a typical representative of US industrial capital, while Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, is a typical representative of US financial capital. However, these two individuals, from their respective perspectives, have expounded the same fact: It is impossible for manufacturing to return to the US. It should be added that Dalio's remarks reflect the generally poor educational situation in the US and even the entire Western world, which is very similar to the policy of keeping the people ignorant in China during the Qing Dynasty. The truth is truly astonishing. It not only reflects the essence of Western education but also reveals major problems. And the return of manufacturing to the US has encountered a huge and insurmountable obstacle - the US does not have enough high-quality labor to support the return of manufacturing. Of course, the West once dreamed of improving the quality of the labor force through AI technology, thereby making the return of manufacturing to the US possible (it is worth noting that if the West can lead in AI technology, it will first have military significance. Similar to ancient nomadic tribes, even if their economy and culture are backward, as long as their military power is strong enough, they can still crush a major central plain country. Economic strength is the prerequisite for military strength, but economic strength does not equal military strength. Similar phenomena have occurred many times in Chinese history, and there is an obvious inevitability). However, under the severe impact of the "DeepSeek + Huawei" model (Huawei provides the hardware and software foundation. In terms of AI, Huawei mainly focuses on "doing things", while DeepSeek mainly focuses on "writing poems and painting". The combination of the two is unparalleled. We firmly believe that China's AI technology will lead the world. In addition, we emphasize that AI is an unstoppable revolutionary force. Whoever blocks it is reactionary. It is necessary to be concerned, but problems should be solved in the process of development. If China does not develop AI technology, the West will. Especially at the military level, China may encounter a "Second Opium War". It is worth mentioning that there is close cooperation between Europe and the US in this regard. The US develops technology, and Europe formulates laws), and this dream has been shattered.

Second, on the basis of "First", what US President Trump said about "making America great again and bringing manufacturing back to the US" is all nonsense. After Trump returned to the presidential throne, his main task was only one - how to settle internal infighting and do everything possible to prevent himself and his small interest group from being held accountable, including Trump, the Republican Party, and everything that the "Trump camp" day and night thinks about is how to solidify power.

Third, on the basis of "Second", after Trump realized that his "tariff war" against China had actually failed, the most terrifying thing for him happened - there seemed to be a major problem with the stability of the US financial system, with the soaring yield of US Treasury bonds being a typical representative event! And Trump read some extremely terrifying signals from it.

Fourth, on the basis of "Third", the so-called "extremely terrifying signals" that made Trump deeply worried are as follows:

First, the possibility that Japan's sale of US Treasury bonds led to the soaring yield of US Treasury bonds is very low;

Second, China currently does not need to use the method of selling US Treasury bonds to counter the US "tariff war" or actively launch a financial attack on the US. In China's view, just market reactions are sufficient;

Third, the meaning of "just market reactions are sufficient" is that there will be people within the US who will take action. For example, some among the Biden camp, Soros, those who are critical of Trump's tariff policy in all aspects, and even some within the "Trump camp". There are rumors that in the face of the soaring yield of US Treasury bonds, in the US financial market, some people choose to sit by and watch, some fan the flames, some remain inactive, and some even kick others while they are down!

Fourth, the flavor of the "Tumu Crisis" has become intense again. The "Trump camp" and US platforms have encountered a "Tumu Crisis" amidst continuous infighting. This may be the main reason why Trump suddenly backed down on the "tariff war" issue.

● Despite all kinds of sophistry and low-key handling, an undeniable fact is that the Trump administration has backed down on the "tariff war".

Regarding Trump's so-called "flexibility", the Ministry of Commerce of China has given such a response.

On April 13, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said that on April 12, Eastern Time, the US side announced a relevant memorandum, exempting "reciprocal tariffs" on some products such as computers, smartphones, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and integrated circuits. China is currently assessing the relevant impacts. The spokesperson said that we have noted that this is the second adjustment to the relevant policy since the US side announced on April 10 the deferral of imposing high "reciprocal tariffs" on some trading partners. It should be said that this represents a small step by the US side in correcting the wrong practice of unilateral "reciprocal tariffs".

Interestingly, also on April 13, US President Trump posted on social media that the US government has not announced any tariff "exemptions", but has instead moved them to other "tariff baskets". On the same day, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said in an interview with US media that the tariff exemptions for electronic products such as mobile phones, computers, and memory chips by the Trump administration are only "temporary". Lutnick said that these products will soon be included in the so-called "semiconductor category" and subjected to a special key tariff.

It is worth mentioning that, different from the high-profile announcement of a series of tariff increase policies before, the Trump administration's concession on the "tariff war" issue, this "blockbuster news" that has attracted wide public attention, was released late at night on the weekend. Not only is there no link on the official website, but journalists' inquiries have gone unanswered, and the content of the document is rather convoluted.

From the above content, it is not difficult for everyone to draw a clear answer. Despite all kinds of sophistry and low-key handling, an undeniable fact is that the Trump administration has backed down on the "tariff war".

It should be emphasized that, in our observation and assessment, Trump launched the "tariff war" primarily to serve internal strife, or rather, to serve Trump and the "Trump camp's" pursuit of dictatorial rule. Among them, imposing tariffs is just a means, while the ultimate extortion of China and the anti-China stance embedded in the process of extreme extortion are the real purposes. This sinister intention can be clearly observed from the Trump administration's imposition of a high tariff of up to 46% on Vietnamese goods: The Trump administration is trying to force Vietnam to take sides and impose tariffs on China, attempting to "accomplish in one step what would normally take N steps" and forcefully promote the "encirclement of China by the world". Of course, after China was the first to stand up and launch a comprehensive and sharp counterattack against the United States, when the "tariff war" this means now begins to backfire on the core strategic goal of "serving Trump and the 'Trump camp's' pursuit of dictatorial rule", it must be adjusted.

The adjustment may not include China, but does it include Vietnam? If it includes Vietnam, it is an indirect tariff exemption for China. And what about Mexico? As the largest trading partner of the United States and the country with the largest scale of re-exporting Chinese goods to the United States, Mexico has never been included in the "tariff war" since its inception. So, as soon as there is talk of exemption, it means concession. The current problem is that it's not about whether Trump wants to talk to China, but that China doesn't want to pay attention to him. It seems that Americans also care about their face.

It is worth mentioning that not only US Democrats but also US Republicans have attacked the Trump administration's tariff policy. For example, Pence, Trump's vice president during his first term, big financiers on Wall Street, and even Musk, who is known as the "equal king of America".

● Stopping the "tariff war" and removing the extreme strategic extortion is the first thing the Trump administration must do now. Otherwise, China won't even talk to the US about issues related to the Western Pacific.

At the end of this discussion, let's take a look at another news report.

On April 14, Shoff chovich, the chief negotiator of the European Union and the commissioner responsible for trade and economic security affairs of the EU, is expected to arrive in Washington, intending to persuade US President Trump to reduce the tariffs imposed by the United States on EU export products worth 380 billion euros. According to informed sources, while negotiating, the EU is also intensifying efforts to reach free trade agreements in other regions. EU officials believe that the relationship between the EU and the United States will never return to the past. As early as April 10, European Commission President von der Leyen said that the EU will further turn towards Asia.

Now, the world has reached a consensus that the "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration against the world, especially against China, has failed. The remaining question is when the Trump administration plans to officially post the exemption document, which was released late at night on the weekend, not only without a link on the official website, with journalists' inquiries unanswered, and the content rather convoluted, on the website of the US government.

It should be reminded to Mr. Trump that you can play all kinds of tricks with so-called "flexibility" and deny the essence of the exemption document, which is essentially a compromise and concession. But it seems that the internal strife in the US won't wait for you!

It is reported that the US Department of Justice said on the local time of April 11 that a man from Pennsylvania has been charged with threatening to assassinate US President Trump and other US government officials online and has been detained. Coincidentally, this suspect named Mumper is from Butler City, Pennsylvania. And on July 13 last year, Trump encountered an "assassination attempt" at a campaign rally in Butler. Trump's right ear was hit by a bullet, one spectator on the scene died, and two others were seriously injured. The gunman was shot dead on the spot by Secret Service agents.

In addition, the evolution of the international situation also won't wait. Judging from the latest remarks of European Commission President von der Leyen, who is regarded by Europeans as "a dog of the United States", and the latest remarks of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who said that "in contacts with the United States, whether in private meetings or phone calls, the issue of Sino-Russian relations was not involved, and there were not even any implications", it is obvious that all parties, including the EU, have detected the correct signal from the official response of the Ministry of Commerce of China to that exemption document, which "has no link on the official website, journalists' inquiries go unanswered, and the content is rather convoluted": You (such as the EU, Russia, etc.) should do what you need to do. Sino-US relations will not change. In essence, apart from taking a big step in admitting mistakes on the "tariff war", the Trump administration has no other choice.

It is worth mentioning that we have noticed recent news reports from South Korean media that if the charge of inciting internal turmoil is established, 64-year-old Yoon Suk-yeol may face life imprisonment or even the death penalty.

Regarding this, we would like to say that regardless of Yoon Suk-yeol's fate, based only on traditional security issues, and on the issue of the Korean Peninsula, the United States can play its games in front of North Korea, and China doesn't care. In our view, stopping the "tariff war" and removing the extreme strategic extortion is the first thing the Trump administration must do now. Otherwise, China won't even talk to the US about issues related to the Western Pacific.

● Objectively, Trump has accelerated the decline of US world hegemony, especially its financial hegemony.

The fact that the US has shown weakness can be said to be a historic moment. At least in economic terms, it is widely recognized that the US is no longer the world's number one. As we have always said, the Ministry of Commerce of China has left Trump's administration with no way out. Apart from taking a big step in correcting the mistakes of the "tariff war", there is essentially no other choice.

Looking at the various strange news coming from the US-Mexico border recently, the "Tumu Crisis" that occurred during the Ming Dynasty in China seems to have become the public water release of the US customs and the smuggling drones at the US-Mexico border today.

However, this may not mean much to Trump himself. It is even possible that Trump and the "Trump camp" have secretly established "smuggling channels". In other words, if the current United States hinders Trump and the "Trump camp", they don't mind tearing down the "US platform".

In addition, it is worthy of everyone's close attention that in this so-called "rebuilding the United States" process in the eyes of Trump and the "Trump camp", there may also be some considerations of weakening the "restrictive factors" at the level of US national interests based on the "complex transfer of Western capital interests". Looking at the core objectives and the entire process of the Trump administration's launch of the "trade war", it clearly embeds the construction process of the "financial firewall" and the process of "complex transfer of Western capital interests", which is very similar to the "fine-tuned" Middle East policy of the United States back then, also at the expense of US national interests. It seems that this time it is more thorough than before.

In our observation and assessment, in a sense, after Trump launched the "tariff war" and failed completely, the world can no longer go back to the past. And from China's perspective, we probably don't want to go back either. Although due to the Sino-US "tariff war", China will gradually initiate the "minimum economic internal circulation", the process of "circulation upgrade" may be more smooth and the difficulty relatively lower. The general "roadmap" of the circulation upgrade will follow from the "10+1" mechanism, to the "10+3" mechanism, then to RCEP, and finally to the "Belt and Road Initiative". This process is also a gradual construction of WTO V2.0 under the leadership of the international community, and in this version of the WTO, the United States is the only one absent. Therefore, if the Trump administration is willing to just drag on like this, the international community doesn't care. Objectively, Trump has accelerated the decline of the United States. Of course, if Trump completely backs down and takes a big step in correcting the mistakes of the "tariff war", we will also reciprocally revoke the tariffs imposed on the US and continue to "help those who want to cross the river".

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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