2025年4月10日，星期四，第1223期

透过美前国务卿布林肯批评特朗普政府关税政策，小谈中美在“关税战”较量中，国家软实力的得与失

【媒体报道】

4月10日，就在白宫上演“对等关税”闹剧之际，年初刚从美国国务卿位置上卸任的布林肯首度露面接受采访，就关税风波，以及中东、乌克兰等国际局势进展，对特朗普政府的行为方式展开了批评。这位前美国最高外交官特别感慨称，特朗普的政策向美国盟友发出了孤立主义的信号，会让他们不再信任美国，同时远离美国。布林肯强调，即使未来美国和贸易伙伴可以通过谈判达成结果，但这件事向世界各国，包括一些美国最亲密盟友发出的信号是：他们必须远离美国、不能再信任和依赖美国。在某些情况下，这些美国的盟友必须更多地与中国合作。

【讨论纪要】

●在应对“关税战”的问题上，中国不可能有“妥协、让步”之选择项，即便是“步步为营”也不可取

在开始今天的讨论之前，就昨天的回顾补充一些内容。我们想要再次强调，中国在第一时间，第一个站出来对美国进行全面且犀利反击的极端重要性。

需要强调的是，我们认为，即便中国没有在第一时间，第一个站出来对美国进行全面且犀利反击，也不可能有“妥协、让步”之选择项，即便采取“步步为营”的策略也不可行。

在我们看来，如果中国选择妥协让步，在性质上等同于第二次世界大战英、法对纳粹德国采取绥靖政策，由此或引发第三次世界大战（主要在非传统安全层面，当然可能外溢到传统安全层面）。值得一提的是，与传统安全层面，比如，洞朗事件，中国可以选择“步步为营”策略进行反击相比，今天基于非传统安全层面，中国反而不能采取“步步为营”的策略。正因为不是传统安全层面那种“火花四射”式的碰撞，非传统安全层面所谓“相对可控”反而更能彰显博弈的残酷性。且这种残酷性就体现在其内嵌了极其阴毒的“伴随战略进攻之战略测试”。中国绝不能给美帝将“战略测试成功”转化为“战略成果”的任何操作空间。否则将会产生比俄罗斯当年错误应对“两机事件”更为严重的重大战略损失，比如，欧盟将会选择跟随美国对中国增加关税，而日本、印度、韩国、越南等一众国家会紧随其后。他们不但不会对美国的霸凌行为表示反对，反而会污蔑中国“双标”和欺软怕硬。

需要补充的是，以越南为例，污蔑中国“双标”有一个前提条件，在中国第一时间，第一个对美国进行全面犀利反击的情况下，在美国逼迫越南对中国加征关税的时候，越南就会污蔑中国。这就叫立规矩，也就是，美国中国都不在话下，何况越南。封杀这些国家，你都惧怕美国，我们自然也惧怕美国，我们对中国加关税是合情合理，类似这样的小心思的腾挪空间。

“关税战”是典型的美帝企图再次通过“基于实力的角度与中国对话”，且基于非传统安全层面，带有明显的“摊牌”的特征，对此，中国没有任何妥协、让步的空间和可能，只能同样基于实力的角度，在第一时间，第一个进行全面且犀利的反击，向美帝以及方方面面展示自己的能力，尤其是动用这种能力坚决捍卫中国核心利益的决心。本质上来说，特朗普政府手中已经没有任何牌能够有效针对中国了，只能“借空取势”凭空臆造出一张牌，以“孤注一掷、战略冒险、狗急跳墙”之姿态极限讹诈中国。然而，中国对这样臆造出来的筹码根本不予理睬，这使得特朗普恼羞成怒。

●有产能，有市场，是中国在必要时刻启动“最低经济内循环”以及顺势推动“循环升级”的最大底气所在

以上我们的讨论更多基于非传统安全层面，类似的问题我们不妨也在传统安全层面加以补充。

最近，一则外媒报道引发了广泛关注：中国在戈壁沙漠进行了一次大规模导弹防御测试，竟然一次性向同一目标发射了多达16枚弹道导弹，以此检验其下一代雷达系统。能否有效应对“饱和式攻击”。该系统实现了关键技术突破，中国军事科学家将其描述为早期探测、精确测量和准确报告——这对于消除高超音速滑翔飞行器和具有诱饵或多个可独立攻击再入飞行器（MIRV）的先进威胁至关重要。

在我们看来，这一测试一方面是针对的是在非传统安全层面摆出一副不惜和中国彻底“摊牌”也死磕到底的特朗普政府，另一方面针对的是类似印度、日本这样的“涉核国家”。信号很清楚：无论是谁，不要有妄念，否则可能会招致灭国之灾。

也许有人会问，如果所有国家都倒向美国，跟随美国对中国进行“关税战”，中国如何应对？

在我们看来，应对的方式有很多，其中一种就是启动“兜底方案”，收复台湾，一切游戏就此结束。在某些特定阶段，或在某些特殊情况下，战争不一定对经济全是坏事，战争也可以拉动经济。以我国为例，借准备收台，将大量需求转向军工，使得工业产能围绕战争准备全面运作。也就是说，我们可以通过战争或准备战争将助力于“最低经济内循环”，比如，美国就是借助二战走出的经济大萧条。

值得一提的是，这种从非传统安全层面的外延到传统安全层面，可以是被动的，也可以是主动的，原则就是“量敌从宽”，其中的微妙之处大家自行体会。总之，有产能，有市场，是中国在必要时刻启动“最低经济内循环”以及顺势推动“循环升级”的最大底气所在。

需要补充的是，4月9日，欧盟成员国9日投票通过首轮对美关税反制措施，将对一系列美国产品征收高达25%关税。

在我们看来，这是中国第一个，第一时间全面犀利反击美国所获得的胜利成果，也是特朗普政府一意孤行发动“关税战”的重大失败。不难想象，没有欧盟的配合，贸易战也好，关税战也罢，仅凭美国一家是绝对玩不转的，更何况，美国硅谷银行“地雷”还未挖出，乌克兰还在打仗，中东政策一团乱麻，最重要的是美国内部恶斗仍在日甚一日。所以，欧盟有充分的理由对美国讨价还价，基于实实在在的经济利益对美国说“不”！

●尽管其脸被打得高高肿起，但“回头数钱”的快乐显然不是常人能懂的

在继续展开讨论前，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

4月9日，在两天前白宫刚辟谣称“美国总统特朗普考虑暂缓90天征收关税”是“假新闻”后，特朗普突然又宣布对部分国家暂停“对等关税”90天，并表示这叫“灵活性”。

特朗普为自己辩称，“问题在于，人必须学会灵活变通。我可以说，‘这有一堵墙，无论如何我都要穿过去’。但一直往前走，你就无法穿过这堵墙，有时候，你得从墙下面钻过去、绕着墙走或者从墙上面翻过去”

无论特朗普如何辩解，在我们看来，只对中国加征关税，而不对其他，比如，印度，墨西哥，越南，或东南亚的一些国家加征关税，性质上等同于取消对中国加征关税。再次强调，“关税战”的本质是妄图建立美西方操纵下的“WTO V2.0”，妄图将“已经加入WTO”的中国排挤出“世界经贸圈”之外、继而迫使中国“二次入世”的，进而彻底实现用“金融防火墙”战略“天下围攻中国”。然而，在特朗普突然宣布对部分国家暂停“对等关税”90天后，这些国家都将成为中国商品转口美国的合法渠道。也就是说，中国的商品依旧源源不断涌入美国，而特朗普政府为关税政策买单的是美国基层百姓。

值得一提的是，如此“贸易战”不是没有上演过，从2018年特朗普第一任期对华发动“贸易战”后，尽管到今天仍未结束，但中美贸易仍未中断。唯一的区别就在于幅度没有这次这么大而已。所以，就本质而言，针对全球，尤其是针对中国发动“关税战”的特朗普已经失败。在被迫上演“川剧大变脸”的背后，真正让特朗普感到恐惧的是美国金融市场以及华尔街的巨大压力。

简单来说，特朗普通过美国国债收益率的飙升现象联想到了某种套利交易的中最危险的加杠杆模式，由于其极其复杂的嵌套式连环抵押，一旦暴雷，将酿成无法预计的金融灾难，类似次贷危机，类似硅谷银行暴雷。唯一可能缓解危机的方式就是公开、史无前例地大规模启动印钞机。但问题在于，以当前中美关系的现状而言，根本不具备引导市场预期的基础。一旦启动，市场将会无时无刻不在担心中国什么时候会说“不要美元”，就算产生“红巨星效应”，恐怕效果也将大打折扣，甚至“红巨星效应”是否能够产生都要画上一个大大的问号。于是，“川剧大变脸”上演了，特朗普的脸被残酷的事实抽得高高肿起。而其发动的“关税战”之“前一秒战略冒险，后一秒妥协投降”的本质也就此彻底曝光于世人面前。

值得一提的是，在特朗普“变脸”后，也就是特朗普展示其所谓的“灵活性”后，美股全线大涨，其中，道指狂拉2900点，纳指暴拉12%！不难看出，在特朗普政府发动“关税战”的背后或真的存在“内部协调”的情况。尽管从特朗普政府的角度观察，极限战略讹诈中国是“于公”，炒股发财是“于私”。但显然，前者不过是特朗普眼中的“小目标”，而后者才是其眼中的“大目标”。有消息称，特朗普的女婿仅仅通过做空美股就获利57亿美元，难怪有网友调侃称，二流股神打听内幕，一流股神制造内幕。这就是典型的内幕交易。对特朗普来说，尽管其脸被打得高高肿起，但“回头数钱”的快乐显然不是常人能懂的。

●特朗普的倒行逆施，首先让美国国家利益受到严重损害，尤其是美国的软实力损失之大，堪称“灾难性”

继续展开讨论之前，我们来看一则新闻报道。

4月10日，就在白宫上演“对等关税”闹剧之际，年初刚从美国国务卿位置上卸任的布林肯首度露面接受采访，就关税风波，以及中东、乌克兰等国际局势进展，对特朗普政府的行为方式展开了批评。这位前美国最高外交官特别感慨称，特朗普的政策向美国盟友发出了孤立主义的信号，会让他们不再信任美国，同时远离美国。

我们对于布林肯先生的言论表示赞同，特朗普的倒行逆施，首先让美国国家利益受到严重损害，尤其是美国的软实力损失之大，堪称“灾难性”。某种意义上说，中国早就看透了特朗普发动“关税战”，外强中干、色厉内荏的本质，也正因如此，中国也必须在第一时间，第一个站出来对其进行全面且犀利的反击。而对方方面面而言，比如，欧盟。既然有中国这堵“南墙”挡在前面，索性，借着大树好乘凉。对此，特朗普恐怕也无话可说，毕竟是你自己说的，遇“墙”要绕着走。

马克思在《资本论》中说：当利润达到100%时，就有人敢于铤而走险；当利润达到200%时，他们就敢于冒上断头台的危险；而当利润达到300%，他们就会践踏人间的一切法律。基于此，我们提请大家注意未来美国或会有一个“新兴职业”就此崛起，那就是专门走私中国商品的“走私团伙”，且不排除会有大势力介入其中的可能性，比如，美军。也许，特朗普狂妄叫嚣再给中国商品加关税是再给正在悄然集结的“走私队”发出“准备开工”的信号。

值得一提的是，走私商品的种类范围恐怕会涵盖方方面面，表面上对中国商品加关税越高，走私的利润空间就有越大。只是苦了美国老百姓。其本质就是特朗普和“特朗普们”从美国百姓的兜儿里抢钱，干的不过是剜肉补疮的勾当。而对于那些根本离不开中国市场的美国商家，只能搬到中国来生产，恐怕这就是布林肯口中中国软实力的不断增加的原因。

不排除北京再接到应约电话的可能，且打电话的时机或与特朗普和“特朗普们”，以及华尔街的金融资本家们的金融衍生品交易的（比如，股市、债市等）建仓情况有关。既然“关税战”打不赢，那就愉快地继续赚钱吧。

●N步并一步，在“金融防火墙”战略之关键环节均未打通的情况下强行启动天下围攻中国，后果可想而知

最后就西方苦心钻营多年的全面构建“金融防火墙”进程之现状做一些补充。

西方全面构建“金融防火墙”进程从埃及之乱开始。欧美完成利益交换，初步合流后，在叙利亚为俄罗斯设置“时间陷阱”。中国果断止损，对外经略南海，对内践行群众路线。在西方全面构建“金融防火墙”进程中，其初期目标针对伊朗,其间涵盖巴西，印度等南方主要经济体，最终目标针对俄罗斯，尤其针对中国。在这个过程中，尤其是在解决俄罗斯的过程中，会动用“水淹南方”这样的手段，对巴西，印度，俄罗斯的资源，产能，国家经济命脉，劳动力等进行史无前例的大兼并、大收购，从而打造低成本生产基地和中国制造全面对撞。这个时候，他们不仅有资金，有技术，有产能，有劳动力，而且基本完成对中国的“天下围攻”。

如果我们将此看作是意识形态、文化、外交、经济层面封锁中国的软件架构，那么北约和西太在南亚地区“有效缝合”就是基于地缘层面全面包围中国的硬件架构。其中关键的一点就是俄罗斯。用我们的话说就是，西方在实质性消化俄罗斯之前没有资本和中国彻底摊牌。

而如今，西方全面构建“金融防火墙”进程搞了几十年，早已一朝回到解放前。对于印度，巴西等南方主要国家，根本没精力处理，和俄罗斯还在乌克兰进行战争，在各种重要环节都未能打通的情况下就强行推动天下围攻中国，结果可想而知——明知不可为而为之，美国虽然避免了爆发金融危机，但美国软实力损失惨重。现在，这步臭棋的“臭味”已经逐渐显现出来了。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Thursday, April 10, 2025, Issue No. 1223

A Brief Discussion on the Gains and Losses of National Soft Power in the "Tariff War" between China and the United States through Blinken's Criticism of Trump's Tariff Policy

[Media Coverage]

On April 10, when the "reciprocal tariff" farce was unfolding in the White House, Blinken, who had just stepped down as the US Secretary of State earlier this year, made his first public appearance in an interview. He criticized the actions of the Trump administration regarding the tariff controversy, as well as the progress of international situations such as the Middle East and Ukraine. This former top US diplomat sighed notably that Trump's policies sent a signal of isolationism to US allies, which would make them no longer trust the United States and distance themselves from it. Blinken emphasized that even if the United States and its trading partners could reach an agreement through negotiation in the future, the signal sent to countries around the world, including some of the US's closest allies, is that they must stay away from the United States and can no longer trust or rely on it. In some cases, these US allies must cooperate more with China.

【Discussion Summary】

● In dealing with the "tariff war", China has no option of "compromise or concession", and even a "step-by-step" strategy is not advisable.

Before starting today's discussion, let me supplement some content from yesterday's review. We would like to emphasize again the extreme importance of China being the first to stand up and launch a comprehensive and sharp counterattack against the United States.

It should be emphasized that we believe that even if China had not been the first to stand up and launch a comprehensive and sharp counterattack against the United States, there would still be no option of "compromise or concession", and even a "step-by-step" strategy would not be feasible.

In our view, if China chooses to compromise and concede, it is equivalent to the appeasement policy adopted by Britain and France towards Nazi Germany in World War II, which may trigger World War III (mainly at the non-traditional security level, and of course it may spill over to the traditional security level). It is worth mentioning that compared with the "step-by-step" strategy that China could adopt in response to an incident like the Doklam standoff at the traditional security level, today, at the non-traditional security level, China cannot adopt a "step-by-step" strategy. Precisely because it is not a "sparking" collision at the traditional security level, the so-called "relative controllability" at the non-traditional security level actually highlights the cruelty of the game more. And this cruelty is reflected in its embedded extremely insidious "strategic testing accompanied by strategic offense". China must not give the United States any room for maneuver to transform the "successful strategic test" into "strategic achievements". Otherwise, it will cause major strategic losses more serious than Russia's wrong response to the "two-plane incident" back then. For example, the European Union will choose to follow the United States in increasing tariffs on China, and a host of countries such as Japan, India, South Korea, and Vietnam will follow suit. They will not only not oppose the bullying behavior of the United States, but will also slander China for "double standards" and being afraid of the strong and bullying the weak.

It should be added that taking Vietnam as an example, the precondition for slandering China for "double standards" is that when the United States forces Vietnam to impose tariffs on China after China takes the lead in launching a comprehensive and sharp counterattack against the United States in a timely manner, Vietnam will slander China. This is about setting rules, that is, if the United States and China are not a big deal, let alone Vietnam. If you are afraid of the United States when trying to sanction China, we will naturally be afraid of the United States too. It's reasonable for us to impose tariffs on China with such petty tricks.

It should be added that taking Vietnam as an example, the precondition for slandering China for "double standards" is that when the United States forces Vietnam to impose tariffs on China after China takes the lead in launching a comprehensive and sharp counterattack against the United States in a timely manner, Vietnam will slander China. This is about setting rules, that is, if the United States and China are not a big deal, let alone Vietnam. If you are afraid of the United States when trying to sanction China, we will naturally be afraid of the United States too. It's reasonable for us to impose tariffs on China with such petty tricks.

● Having production capacity and a market is the greatest confidence for China to initiate the "minimum economic internal circulation" at necessary moments and smoothly promote the "circulation upgrade".

Our previous discussions were mostly based on the non-traditional security level. Similar issues can also be supplemented from the traditional security level.

Recently, a foreign media report has attracted wide attention: China conducted a large-scale missile defense test in the Gobi Desert, firing as many as 16 ballistic missiles at the same target at one time to test its next-generation radar system's ability to effectively deal with "saturation attacks". The system has achieved key technological breakthroughs. Chinese military scientists describe it as early detection, precise measurement, and accurate reporting - which is crucial for eliminating advanced threats such as hypersonic glide vehicles and advanced threats with decoys or multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).

In our view, this test is aimed at one hand at the Trump administration, which has shown a willingness to completely "lay all the cards on the table" and fight to the end with China at the non-traditional security level, and on the other hand at "nuclear-related countries" like India and Japan. The signal is clear: no one should have delusions, otherwise they may bring about national destruction.

Maybe some people will ask, if all countries side with the United States and follow the United States in launching a "tariff war" against China, how will China respond?

In our view, there are many ways to respond. One of them is to initiate the "bottom-line plan" and retake Taiwan, and then all the games will end. At certain specific stages or under certain special circumstances, war is not necessarily all bad for the economy. War can also stimulate the economy. Taking our country as an example, by preparing to retake Taiwan, a large amount of demand has been shifted to the military industry, making industrial production capacity fully operate around war preparations. That is to say, we can contribute to the "minimum economic internal circulation" through war or preparation for war. For example, the United States got out of the Great Depression with the help of World War II.

It is worth mentioning that this extension from the non-traditional security level to the traditional security level can be passive or active. The principle is to "judge the enemy by giving them the benefit of the doubt". Everyone can figure out the subtleties. In short, having production capacity and a market is the greatest confidence for China to initiate the "minimum economic internal circulation" at necessary moments and smoothly promote the "circulation upgrade".

It should be added that on April 9, the EU member states voted to pass the first round of tariff countermeasures against the United States, imposing tariffs of up to 25% on a series of US products.

In our view, this is the victory achieved by China's first and timely comprehensive and sharp counterattack against the United States, and also a major failure of the Trump administration's stubborn initiation of the "tariff war". It is not difficult to imagine that without the cooperation of the EU, neither the trade war nor the tariff war can be played out by the United States alone. Moreover, the "mine" of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States has not yet been unearthed, the war in Ukraine is still going on, the Middle East policy is in a mess, and most importantly, the internal strife in the United States is getting worse day by day. Therefore, the EU has full reasons to bargain with the United States and say "no" to the United States based on real economic interests!

● Despite having his face swollen high from the blows, the joy of "counting the money afterwards" is obviously something ordinary people can't understand.

Before continuing the discussion, let's take a look at another news report.

On April 9, just two days after the White House had refuted the claim that "US President Trump is considering suspending tariff collection for 90 days" as "fake news", Trump suddenly announced a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries, saying this was "flexibility".

Trump defended himself, saying, "The thing is, people have to learn to be flexible. I can say, 'There's a wall here, and I'm going to get through it no matter what.' But if you just keep moving forward, you won't be able to get through the wall. Sometimes, you have to crawl under it, walk around it, or climb over it."

No matter how Trump defends himself, in our view, imposing tariffs only on China while not imposing them on other countries, such as India, Mexico, Vietnam, or some countries in Southeast Asia, is essentially the same as canceling the tariffs on China. Once again, the essence of the "tariff war" is an attempt to establish a "WTO V2.0" under the manipulation of the United States and the West, an attempt to exclude China, which has already joined the WTO, from the "world economic and trade circle", and then force China to "re-enter the WTO", and ultimately achieve the complete encirclement of China with the "financial firewall" strategy. However, after Trump suddenly announced a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries, these countries will all become legal channels for Chinese goods to be transshipped to the United States. That is to say, Chinese goods will still continue to flood into the United States, while it is the grassroots people in the United States who will pay for Trump's tariff policy.

It is worth mentioning that such a "trade war" has happened before. Since Trump launched the "trade war" against China in his first term in 2018, although it has not ended to this day, Sino-US trade has not been interrupted. The only difference is that the scale is not as large as this time. Therefore, in essence, Trump, who launched the "tariff war" against the world, especially against China, has failed. Behind the forced "Sichuan opera face-changing", what really terrifies Trump is the huge pressure on the US financial market and Wall Street.

Simply put, Trump associated the soaring yield of US Treasury bonds with the most dangerous leverage model in some arbitrage trades. Due to its extremely complex nested and chained mortgages, once it blows up, it will trigger an unpredictable financial disaster, similar to the subprime mortgage crisis and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The only way to alleviate the crisis may be to publicly and unprecedentedly launch the printing press on a large scale. But the problem is that, given the current state of Sino-US relations, there is no basis for guiding market expectations. Once it is launched, the market will always worry about when China will say "no to the US dollar". Even if the "red giant effect" occurs, the effect may be greatly reduced, and it is even questionable whether the "red giant effect" can occur at all. As a result, the "Sichuan opera face-changing" took place, and Trump's face was swollen high by the cruel facts. The essence of his "tariff war", which was "strategically adventurous in the previous second and compromised and surrendered in the next second", was thus completely exposed to the world.

It is worth mentioning that after Trump's "face-changing", that is, after Trump showed his so-called "flexibility", the US stock market soared across the board. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2,900 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index skyrocketed 12%! It is not difficult to see that there may really be "internal coordination" behind the Trump administration's launch of the "tariff war". Although from the perspective of the Trump administration, strategically blackmailing China to the extreme is for the "public good", while making money from stock speculation is for personal gain. But obviously, the former is just a "small goal" in Trump's eyes, while the latter is the "big goal". There are reports that Trump's son-in-law made a profit of $5.7 billion just by shorting US stocks. No wonder some netizens joked that second-rate stock wizards inquire about insider information, while first-rate stock wizards create insider information. This is typical insider trading. For Trump, although his face was swollen high from the blows, the joy of "counting the money afterwards" is obviously something ordinary people can't understand.

● Trump's Reckless Actions Have Seriously Damaged US National Interests, Especially Causing "Disastrous" Losses to US Soft Power

Before continuing the discussion, let's take a look at a news report.

On April 10, while the "reciprocal tariff" farce was unfolding in the White House, Blinken, who had just stepped down as US Secretary of State earlier this year, made his first public appearance in an interview. He criticized the Trump administration's approach regarding the tariff controversy, as well as the progress of international situations such as the Middle East and Ukraine. This former top US diplomat sighed notably that Trump's policies sent a signal of isolationism to US allies, causing them to no longer trust the United States and distance themselves from it.

We agree with Mr. Blinken's remarks. Trump's reckless actions have first and foremost seriously damaged US national interests. In particular, the losses in US soft power are "disastrous". In a sense, China has long seen through the true nature of Trump's "tariff war", which is outwardly tough but inwardly weak. That's precisely why China had to be the first to stand up and launch a comprehensive and sharp counterattack against it. As for other parties, such as the European Union, since there is this "solid wall" of China in front, they might as well take advantage of it. Trump probably has nothing to say about this, after all, he himself said that one should detour around a "wall".

Marx said in "Das Kapital": When profits reach 100%, some dare to take risks; when profits reach 200%, they dare to risk the guillotine; and when profits reach 300%, they will trample on all human laws. Based on this, we would like to draw everyone's attention to the possibility that a new "profession" may emerge in the United States in the future, namely "smuggling gangs" specializing in smuggling Chinese goods. It is not excluded that large forces may be involved, such as the US military. Perhaps Trump's arrogant claim of imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods is like sending a "get ready to work" signal to the "smuggling teams" that are quietly gathering.

It is worth noting that the range of smuggled goods may cover all aspects. The higher the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods on the surface, the greater the profit margin for smuggling. It's just that the ordinary American people will suffer. In essence, Trump and those like him are robbing money from the pockets of the American people, engaging in a practice of "robbing Peter to pay Paul". For those US businesses that are highly dependent on the Chinese market and have no choice but to move their production to China, this may be the reason for the increasing soft power of China as mentioned by Blinken.

It is not excluded that Beijing may receive another call as scheduled, and the timing of the call may be related to the position-building of Trump and his associates, as well as Wall Street financial capitalists, in financial derivative transactions (such as in the stock and bond markets). Since they can't win the "tariff war", they might as well continue to make money happily.

● Compressing Multiple Steps into One and Forcibly Initiating a Global Encirclement of China without Establishing Key Links in the "Financial Firewall" Strategy Will Have Predictable Consequences

Finally, let's make some additional points about the current situation of the Western process of painstakingly constructing the "financial firewall" over the years.

The Western process of comprehensively constructing the "financial firewall" began with the chaos in Egypt. After Europe and the United States completed an interest exchange and initially converged, they set a "time trap" for Russia in Syria. China decisively cut its losses, focused on the South China Sea in its foreign policy and practiced the mass line domestically. During the Western process of constructing the "financial firewall", their initial target was Iran, covering major economies in the South such as Brazil and India during the process, with the ultimate goal being Russia, especially China. In this process, especially in dealing with Russia, they may resort to means like "flooding the South", carrying out an unprecedented large-scale merger and acquisition of Brazil's, India's and Russia's resources, production capacity, economic lifelines, and labor force, thus creating a low-cost production base to directly compete with China's manufacturing. At that time, they will not only have capital, technology, production capacity, and labor force, but also basically complete the "global encirclement" of China.

If we view this as the software architecture for blockading China in terms of ideology, culture, diplomacy, and economy, then the "effective stitching" of NATO and the Western Pacific in the South Asian region is the hardware architecture for comprehensively surrounding China from a geopolitical perspective. A key point here is Russia. In our words, the West has no capital to completely confront China before substantially digesting Russia.

Now, after decades of efforts in constructing the "financial firewall", the West has come full circle. They have no energy to deal with major countries in the South such as India and Brazil, and they are still at war with Russia in Ukraine. Forcibly promoting a global encirclement of China without establishing key links in various important aspects will have predictable consequences - knowingly doing something impossible, the United States has avoided a financial crisis, but its soft power has suffered heavy losses. Now, the "stench" of this bad move is gradually emerging.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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