2025年4月9日，星期三，第1222期

再次强调，针对特朗普政府发动的“关税战”，中国在第一时间对其犀利且全面反击的极端重要性

【媒体报道】

自美国总统特朗普2日宣布全面征收“对等关税”以来，多国政要纷纷发声反对关税，誓言将采取应对措施。马来西亚总理安瓦尔4月6日晚表示，马来西亚将带头协调东盟国家对特朗普关税做出回应。“作为东盟主席国，马来西亚将带头努力建立统一的地区阵线，维护开放和有弹性的供应链，并确保东盟的集体声音在国际舞台上得到清晰和坚定的倾听。”安瓦尔在社交媒体上发表视频讲话说。

【讨论纪要】

●特朗普政府对全球发动“关税战”或让马来西亚当局想起了“97亚洲金融危机”的痛苦回忆

我们注意到马来西亚总理安瓦尔“马来西亚将带头协调东盟国家对特朗普关税做出回应”的相关表态。在展开今天的回顾之前，我们就昨天的讨论补充一些内容。

特朗普政府对全球发动“关税战”或让马来西亚当局想起了“97亚洲金融危机”。当时危机从泰国开始并迅速席卷马来西亚、印尼、菲律宾，并逐步扩展至中国香港、韩国、日本和俄罗斯。危机给东南亚各国制造了深重灾难。为此，时任马来西亚总理马哈蒂尔怒斥索罗斯，“我们奋斗了三四十年才把国家发展到这样的水平，但冒出了一个拥有数十亿美元的人，他在两个星期之内就毁掉了我们所取得的大部分成就。”

此外，在我们看来，特朗普政府对全球发动“关税战”很可能会造成类似马来西亚这样国家的经济剧烈波动。特朗普政府一方面以此对这些国家施压，胁迫他们加入“关税反华同盟”，一方面给中国主导推行的RCEP、关键时刻开启“最低经济内循环”以及“循环升级”制造潜在困难，另一方面会寻着“水淹南方”的思路，妄图重温“97亚洲金融危机”的旧梦，配合公开、史无前例的大规模开启印钞机抄底这些发生严重经济，甚至金融危机的国家。退一步说，如果以上意图达不到目的，不能从美国之外去掠夺，那就在西方内部，甚至美国内部进行掠夺。在这场疯狂的“关税战”中，很多西方国家，包括美国的企业、公司也会死掉，它们就会成为华尔街金融大鳄们的丰盛晚餐。

●就总体上而言，欧盟的动作仍属于试探范畴

为了更好地展开讨论，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

4月7日，据英国媒体报道，未来几天，欧盟国家将在应对美国关税问题上展现统一立场，并可能批准对高达280亿美元的美国进口商品采取首套有针对性的反制措施。

再次强调，针对特朗普政府发动的“关税战”，中国在第一时间对其犀利且全面反击的极端重要性。正是因为中国在第一时间做出犀利且全面的反击，让很多国家和组织，包括，欧、俄、日、印等，同样在第一时间选择了观望而不是“下跪”（类似大雁一样，中国就是“头雁”，他们可以借助“头雁”提供的“上升气流”更为省力的飞翔。放在“关税战”中就是，因为有中国顶在最前面，它们才有第一时间选择观望而非“下跪”的空间）。他们都在看特朗普政府面对中国这个硬茬儿到底会怎么办。

显然，他们或没有能力，或没有意志力，或没有决心去对抗美国的霸凌行径，而中国为他们树立了榜样。值得一提的是，在我们的观察中，目前阶段，欧盟在观望之余已经开始小心翼翼制定自己的反击方案，毕竟这涉及欧盟切切实实的经济利益。当然，就总体上而言，欧盟的动作仍属于试探范畴。

●来自华尔街“盟友”就关税政策接二连三的批评让特朗普感到压力巨大

4月6日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，股市崩盘是其“故意”而为。特朗普称，“关税政策虽是一步险棋，但正在奏效。关税政策促进美国企业在国内进行生产，促使农民将更多农产品在国内销售，从而降低食品价格。通过调整关税和股市将进一步降低物价，美国中产阶级受益”。与此同时，特朗普敦促美国人民“保持耐心”。

然而就在特朗普以上“慷慨陈词”过去不到24小时，其在乘坐总统专机“空军一号”时与记者谈到全面关税措施对美国经济的影响时则改口称：“并非故意策划股市抛售。我不希望任何股票下跌，但有时候为了解决某些问题，你不得不吃药。我们一直被其他国家恶意相待，是因为我们过去那些愚蠢的领导层任由这种事情发生。”

在我们看来，随着特朗普在华尔街的大金主们（他们也可能是真正幕后老板的代言人，扮演类似保尔森这种“话事者”的角色），比如，知名对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼和斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒，接二连三的批评特朗普政府的关税政策，这让特朗普感到了巨大压力，因为他们都是特朗普的所谓的“支持者”。

特朗普的内部敌人自然是看到了这一幕，于是也在纷纷观望之余也开始有所行动，比如，美国前总统奥巴马对特朗普政策的抨击，甚至威胁称，别因为特朗普行为古怪就以为他的总统任期不会有危险。我们不需要一个自封的国王、伪独裁者、到处惩罚敌人的人再来四年。

●特朗普政府对全球，尤其是对中国发动“关税战”，是一种不折不扣的反经济规律的倒行逆施

2025年4月8日外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。

土耳其媒体记者提问，美国总统特朗普威胁称，如果中方在4月8日前不取消报复性关税，美方将对中国再加征50％关税。中方对此有何回应？

林剑表示，美方滥施关税严重侵犯各国正当权益，严重违反世界贸易组织规则，严重损害以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，严重冲击全球经济秩序稳定，是典型的单边主义、保护主义、经济霸凌，遭到国际社会普遍反对，中方对此强烈谴责、坚决反对。我要再次强调，贸易战、关税战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。中国人不惹事，也不怕事，施压、威胁和讹诈不是同中方打交道的正确方式。中方必将采取必要措施，坚决维护自身正当合法权益。如果美方置两国和国际社会的利益于不顾，执意打关税战、贸易战，中方必将奉陪到底。

在我们看来，内焦外困的特朗普感到了极端痛苦，以至于其言论显得有些歇斯底里了。对此，我们想说的只有一句话：请将墨西哥列入美国的关税清单或迫使墨西哥政府跟随美国对中国商品加征关税！

想要提醒特朗普政府的是，以2017年为例（2017年1月20日，特朗普开始其身为美国总统的第一任期），当时的中美贸易总值为5837亿美元，中国顺差达到了2759亿美元。到了2024年，中美贸易总额6882.8亿美元，中国对美国贸易顺差3610亿美元。相对2017年不仅没有衰退，反而小幅增长。也就是说，特朗普从他的第一任期，对中国2000亿美元进口商品加征关税的2018年到今天的7年多时间里，“贸易战”基本上打了个寂寞。这还不算通过第三方，比如，墨西哥，越南这样的国家转口中国商品进入美国的数据。

这充分说明一件事，那就是美国制造业的萎缩正在以肉眼可见的速度不断恶化，作为“纯消费国家”的特朗愈发明显，美国社会维持正常生产、生活运行所必需的商品，美国对以中国为首的亚洲经济的依赖性越来越严重。不难看出，特朗普政府对全球，尤其是对中国发动“关税战”，是一种不折不扣的反经济规律的倒行逆施。

●本质上说，今天的美国是“钢少气也少”，而中国则是“钢多气也多”！

对于欧盟、日本、印度、韩国、越南等国家和组织而言，他们的痛苦在于，距离必须做选择的时刻越来越近，而投机的空间越来越小。他们必须在到底是跟着美国得利多，还是跟着中国得利多的问题上小心权衡。

所谓“小心权衡”的意思就在于，“关税战”的一个主要图谋是妄图拼凑所谓“关税反华同盟”，所以，中国通过在第一时间做出犀利却全面反击，也在于对方方面面树立一个明确预期：你们害怕美国这个流氓，难道不怕中国的正义之举吗？ 换言之，只要你们跟着美国反华，中国一定会采取报复性措施，且同样犀利且全面。你们所付出的代价一定比跟着美国得到的利益大得多得多。你们除了明明白白去计算自己实实在在的利益得失，比如，经济利益，外没有其他选择。

友情提醒这些国家、组织，只谈经济利益，对你们挥舞关税大棒的，逼你们选边站队的不是中国而是美国。与美国相比，中国留给你们足够的权衡空间和时间，只是提醒你们小心评估跟随美国对中国加征关税的后果。由此也能凸显中国第一时间对特朗普发动“关税战”进行犀利且全面反击的极端重要性。这恐怕是包括欧盟、东盟在内的许多国家和组织，尽管总体上仍在观望、仍在试探，但已经在经济利益之外，摆出对特朗普政府基于人心向背层面的厌恶、反感的主要原因。

当然，以欧盟为例，在意识形态上仍然视中国为最大潜在敌人，所以，在非传统安全层面欧盟反制美国关税政策会做到什么程度，用一句话形容那就是，“有希望，不指望，外加高度警惕”。至于俄罗斯，要更加警惕，近段时间以来，俄罗斯和美国基于非传统安全层面的合作可能性愈发增加。但总的来说，特朗普对全球发动“关税战”打乱了既有全球格局，尤其是打乱了西方阵营，这是美帝世界霸权，尤其是金融霸权不断衰落，控制能力不断下降的具体表现。

如果说抗美援朝，就实力而言，我们是“钢少气多”。那么今天的美国，对全球，尤其是对中国发动“关税战”某种意义上说也是“钢少气多”，问题是，特朗普政府的“气”是真的还是假的，是生气的气，还是气概的气？恐怕是前者！所以，本质上说，今天的美国是“钢少气也少”，而中国则是“钢多气也多”！

从根本上说，如果特朗普政府最终不能逼迫这些国家、组织站队，跟着美国对中国加征关税，特朗普于4月2日发动的“关税战”就注定要彻底失败。特朗普和“特朗普们”很清楚，制造业回流美国没有希望，至少走私可以一本万利，比苦哈哈恢复制造业强得多得多。

●特朗普政府向全球，尤其是中国发动“关税战”的几个必然产生的严重后果

在本次回顾的最后，我们不妨简单总结一下特朗普政府向全球，尤其是中国发动“关税战”的几个必然产生的严重后果：

严重后果之一：

美国发动“关税战”后，中美都会经历一个困难时期，且一定会影响到各自原有的经济运行节奏。外国的商品进不去，美国的商品也出不去。虽然看似保护了产品，但这些产品也要出口的，且有产业链的，当关税战导致商品不能出口，那么工厂就会倒闭，工人失业，通胀上升，消费能力下降，其涉及各个层面，非常复杂，很多事情无法预料，这在胡佛为美国总统的时候就曾经发生过。

对美国而言，无论中国是否同意美国都会印钱制造红巨星效应，但这里有一个时间空间的问题。如果中国配合，这种印钱就相对安全（从美国金融市场角度看是相对安全的），否则，市场的反应会非常复杂，非常怀疑的眼光看待特朗普政府。特朗普政府与市场的博弈极其复杂，极其残酷，极其敏感。这是特朗普急于访华的主要原因。特朗普只是想要通过访华将这套政策玩下去的空间加大一些。

所以，本质上，就总体而言，特朗普政府发动的“关税战”不过是基于“时间因素”的急迫下进行“为渊驱鱼”，反而帮了中国的大忙。何况中国目前还仅在亮明态度的阶段，而方方面面都知道，中国既有能力，更有动用能力的决心。所以，在中国第一个，第一时间对特朗普政府“关税战”进行全面且犀利反击的那一刻，方方面面都意识到了一点，那就是，跪美国很容易，但跟随美国反华代价实在太大，且难以承受。于是乎，近乎清一色地选择了观望。

严重后果之二：

我们注意到近期，某美国知名媒体联系了50位华尔街顶级领袖，包括亿万富豪投资者、大型机构资产管理者和美国最大的财富顾问，以评估他们对特朗普经济战略的支持情况。这50位受访者因其巨大影响力而被被选中，他们的反馈凸显了近期市场的动荡。

从上述新闻报道中大家不难看出，特朗普政府对全球，尤其对中国发动“关税战”，在第一时间遭受中国犀利且全面反击，国内市场一片哀鸿遍野的情况下，本就日甚一日的美国内部恶斗如何平息？

也就是说，本计划在“再次登基”之后百日之内就“进京述职、寻求中国配合、至少是默认其正式、公开、大规模印钱、以迅速全方位缓解美国各种压力”的特朗普，在“索要进京机票”最终未果的“迄今过程”中，这套“王八拳”打下来，如果仍然不能尽快、比如，从4月10日开始的3个月内、实现上述核心意图，随着4月开始的未来一段，在贸易战争全面升级的冲击下，大幅且可能无序波动的美国金融市场所带来的压力，再加上巨量美国国债会集中到期、急于用钱、用天文数字的钱但却又没钱可用（除非不顾一切地公开、正式启动数量上一定是“空前”、从而也“必然”绝后”的QE）的特朗普政府、不单会承受来自西方阵营内部的反噬，也会明显遭遇来自美国内部的各种反噬、特别是美国资本内部的反噬，甚至可能全面演化成“来自特朗普们内部的反噬”。

当然，如果最终“关税战”名存实亡，中国也不会揭穿。因为中国商品仍然可以继续源源不断地通过墨西哥这样的渠道进入美国，到头来不过是另一个版本的“河渡人”。

严重后果之三：

以上提到了“巨量美国国债会集中到期”。再次强调，一旦在“时间因素”，巨量债务，更为恶化的美国内部政治生态等综合因素的强大压力下，在没有得到中国默许情况下，不顾一切地公开、正式启动数量上一定是“空前”、从而也“必然”绝后”的QE的话，美元的命就握在中国手里，中国可以随时说，我不要美元了。而与其如影随形的是特朗普和市场之间十分残酷且极度敏感的博弈。可谓稍有风吹草动，就会出现连华尔街都无法预料和掌握的剧烈波动。

不难想象的是，如果连金融游戏都不能愉快地玩耍，那还要你特朗普做什么？一旦华尔街对特朗普动了杀心，特朗普和其家族还有未来吗？所以，在我们看来，特朗普除了妥协，拿出态度好好和中国谈，比如，落地执行“太平洋足够大容得下中美两国”等话题外（一系列的措施要做到“不可逆”，因为特朗普政府要求中国不能在传统、非传统安全层面不能孤立美国，且一系列的措施也要做到“不可逆”），没有其他出路。

●中国对美“关税战”的反击，维护的是全球大多数国家、组织的共同利益

我们注意到近日，在谈到特朗普的关税政策时，世界贸易组织（WTO）前总干事、前欧盟贸易专员帕斯卡尔·拉米告诉英国媒体—— 以这位美国总统能理解的方式强硬回击，才是最佳的回应方式。“我认为，特朗普在纽约受黑手党影响的房地产市场上学会了做生意，他的策略是基于敲诈勒索——只要没拿到满意的价码就会持续施压。在我看来，展示你的实力是对付他及其团队的正确方式。”。

WTO，包括联合国在内，原本都是服务于美帝的，而现在美帝对他们的控制越来越困难了，中国在维护WTO，所以要抛弃他们。某种意义上说，特朗普政府发动“关税战”正在毁灭WTO。

从这一点来看，目前阶段，WTO对世界大多数国家、组织还是有利的。这也是我们可以基于非传统安全层面，对上瞄着WTO世贸规则，对下瞄着方方面面最为实在的经济利益对美帝施行“尊王攘夷”的主要原因之一。中国对特朗普“关税战”在第一时间，第一个进行犀利且全面的反击，也是维护了包括广大南方国家，甚至部分发达国家，也就是蓝星大多数国家、组织的共同利益。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Wednesday, April 9, 2025, Issue No. 1222

Trump's Blatant Lie about "China's Eagerness to Negotiate Tariffs with the US" and Its Main Intention: Possibly to Pacify the Market

[Media Coverage]

On April 10, it was reported that on April 9, US President Trump told the media at the White House that China hopes to reach a deal with the United States but doesn't know how to do it.

【Discussion Summary】

● The main intention of Trump's blatant lie about "China's eagerness to negotiate tariffs with the US" may be to pacify the US financial market

On April 9, we noted the news report about US President Trump's statement that "he believes China is eager to reach an agreement but just doesn't know how to start".

Before delving into the discussion, please pay attention to two news reports:

The first one:

On April 9, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs held a regular press conference. A reporter asked about China's response to the US's latest tariffs on China.

Spokesperson Lin Jian of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The United States is still wantonly imposing tariffs on China and exerting maximum pressure on China. China firmly opposes and will never accept such hegemonic and bullying behavior. If the United States really wants to solve problems through dialogue and negotiation, it should adopt an attitude of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. If the United States disregards the interests of the two countries and the international community and insists on waging a tariff war and a trade war, China will surely accompany it to the end.

The second one:

On April 9, the State Council Information Office released the white paper "China's Position on Several Issues Concerning Sino-US Economic and Trade Relations". A relevant official from the Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions about the background of the release of the white paper, its main content, and China's position on Sino-US economic and trade relations.

A relevant official from the Ministry of Commerce: In recent years, unilateralism and protectionism in the United States have been on the rise. The United States has continuously introduced economic and trade restrictive measures such as imposing tariffs on China, seriously disrupting normal Sino-US economic and trade cooperation. China has to take legitimate countermeasures. It should be emphasized that there are no winners in a trade war. China does not want a trade war, but the Chinese government will never sit idly by and watch the legitimate rights and interests of the Chinese people be damaged and deprived. If the United States insists on further escalating economic and trade restrictive measures, China has firm will and rich means and will surely resolutely counteract and accompany it to the end.

Combining the above two news reports, we would like to emphasize the following points:

First, US President Trump is clearly lying publicly.

Second, considering that there are still quite a number of people in the United States who tend to believe what they want to believe, still firmly believing that the United States of America remains the most powerful country in the world and thus believing that what Trump said, namely "China is seeking favors from the United States", is true. As the highest administrative leader of the United States, the core purpose of President Trump's blatant lie in public is to pacify the market. It is worth mentioning that on April 6, US Treasury Secretary Benson, while denying that the United States would face a recession in an interview with the media, said that more than 50 countries were in contact with the United States seeking to initiate negotiations, and the name of the People's Republic of China was clearly on the list. Trump is well aware that if he doesn't lie blatantly, the reaction of the US financial market would be much more intense than it is now!

Third, Trump and those around him are obviously overly confident in their usual trick of "creating problems with one hand and solving them with the other". After seeing China's first and immediate comprehensive and sharp counterattack against the United States, especially after the US financial market was in a mess, Trump had to painfully realize that something was happening, namely, the "tariff war" he launched globally, especially against China, was "off script".

Fourth, against the backdrop of China's first and immediate comprehensive and sharp counterattack against the United States, let's observe the following in the future: First, whether the basic stable operation of US society, especially the financial market, can last for three months; Second, if the Trump administration manages to do so, then observe whether the basic stable operation of US society, especially the financial market, can last for six months. Third, if even the Trump administration falters, then we will no longer regard this "tariff war" as a kind of extreme strategic blackmail, especially the kind of extreme strategic blackmail that is "strategically adventurous in the previous second and compromises and surrenders in the next second".

● Musk and Ackman Believe Trump's Tariff Policy Is Ruining the US's Already Severely Shrinking Real Economy, Especially Its Virtual Economy on Which the Country Was Built

The current situation of the Trump administration is extremely embarrassing. To describe it, we can quote what the duty officer said on April 8:

Trump II, who had planned to "report to the capital and seek China's cooperation, or at least its tacit approval of his formal, public, and large-scale money-printing to quickly and comprehensively relieve various US pressures" within 100 days after his "second coronation", has, in the "process so far" of ultimately failing to obtain the "air ticket to the capital", laid out such a ridiculous set of moves. If he still cannot achieve the above core intention as soon as possible, for example, within three months starting from April 10, under the impact of the full escalation of the trade war, the US financial market will face significant and possibly disorderly fluctuations. Coupled with the fact that a huge amount of US Treasury bonds will mature, and the Trump administration, eager for money and in need of an astronomical amount of it but with no available funds (unless it recklessly and publicly launches a quantitative easing program that is "unprecedented" and thus "inevitably" the last), will not only face backlash from within the Western camp but also clearly encounter various forms of backlash from within the United States, especially from within US capital. In fact, it may even evolve into "backlash from within the Trump camp itself".

Elon Musk, the current "right-hand man" of Trump and CEO of Tesla, recently tried to persuade Trump to reconsider the current tariff policy in person.

If Trump is a madman, then Musk is obviously much more rational. Musk is well aware that it has been almost seven years since Trump launched the "trade war" against China in 2018 during his first term. However, the result is that China has grown stronger while the United States has grown weaker. The outcome is already clear. In addition, Musk has traveled back and forth between China and the United States many times and has a certain understanding of China's nature. If the "tariff war" continues, there is no way that China will be the first to give in, as the United States is the one seeking favors from China. That is to say, if in the end, one side has to back down, it will surely be the Trump administration. Otherwise, the two speeding trains of China and the United States will surely "collide head-on", which will not only bring no benefits to the United States but may also destroy Tesla, which has been painstakingly managed for many years.

In addition, Bill Ackman, a billionaire and investor who supported Trump's presidential campaign, is also dissatisfied with Trump's tariff policy. On April 6, he wrote on social media that the United States is "launching a trade war against the whole world" and is "destroying" other trading partners' confidence in the United States. "Business is based on confidence, and the president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the world."

Musk and Ackman are quite representative. The former is involved in the remaining manufacturing industry in the United States, while the latter is a typical Wall Street financial capitalist. Obviously, they believe that Trump's tariff policy is ruining the US's already severely shrinking real economy, especially its virtual economy on which the country was built.

Based on the above discussions, we would like to emphasize again the extreme importance of China being the first to stand up and launch a comprehensive and sharp counterattack against the United States. Otherwise, if China had not been the first to take such actions, the attitude of the European Union might have been a 180-degree turn from what it is now - choosing not to counterattack the United States but to follow it in imposing tariffs on China. And then Japan, India, South Korea, Vietnam, and others would have followed suit. They would not only not accuse the United States of wanton bullying but would also slander China for "double standards" and being afraid of the strong and bullying the weak.

It should be added that if China had chosen to compromise or make concessions, it would have been equivalent to the appeasement policy adopted by Britain and France towards Nazi Germany during World War II, which might have triggered World War III. Therefore, this is not an option in China's possible strategies. It should be noted that compared with the traditional security level, such as the Doklam standoff, where China could choose a step-by-step counterattack strategy, at the non-traditional security level today, China cannot adopt a step-by-step counterattack strategy. (Precisely because it is not as explosive as the traditional security level, the relative controllability of the non-traditional security level makes it seem even more cruel. In essence, it is a "chicken game". In essence, Trump has no cards to play against China and can only fabricate one out of thin air, attempting to bluff China with a desperate gamble. As a result, China directly nullified this baseless card, leaving Trump humiliated.) Because it would produce unfavorable consequences for China. That is to say, China will not give the United States any room to turn its "successful strategic test" into "strategic achievements". The "tariff war" is a typical attempt by the United States to talk to China from a "strength-based perspective", with obvious characteristics of "flipping the table and laying all the cards on the table". In this regard, China has no room or possibility for compromise or concession. It can only counterattack based on strength at the same time, demonstrating its capabilities to the United States and all parties, especially the determination to use such capabilities.

● The More "Bystanders", the More Failed Trump's "Tariff War" Will Be

Before further discussion, let's take a look at another news report.

On April 8, [Chinese leader] had a phone conversation with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.

[Chinese leader] said that this year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the European Union. At the beginning of this year, [Chinese leader] had a phone conversation with President Costa, laying the foundation and pointing out the direction for deepening China-EU relations. China is willing to enhance political mutual trust with the EU, expand pragmatic cooperation, adhere to resolving respective concerns through dialogue and consultation, and promote the continuous development of China-EU relations. China and the EU should strengthen communication and coordination, expand mutual opening-up, safeguard free and open trade and investment, and inject more stability into both sides and the world economy. China is full of confidence in maintaining its own sustained and healthy economic development and will continue to unswervingly expand opening-up, strengthen cooperation with countries around the world, and share development opportunities.

Von der Leyen said that it is crucial for China-EU relations to maintain continuity and stability. The US's imposition of tariffs has severely impacted international trade. China and the EU are committed to safeguarding the multilateral trading system, which is in line with the common interests of both sides and the world.

Obviously, behind the EU's tentative exploration and careful formulation of countermeasures against the United States, its "bystander" mentality is fully demonstrated. In our view, China welcomes such a "bystander" mentality of some countries and organizations. It can be said that the more "bystanders" there are, the more failed Trump's "tariff war" will be. In the eyes of the EU, against the backdrop of China's first and immediate comprehensive and sharp counterattack against the United States, the United States' outward show of strength but inward weakness and bluster have become more evident than ever. Trump's "tariff war" is already "off script". In this case, it is an opportune moment to take advantage of this situation and force the United States to make concessions on matters of interest to the EU, especially the urgently needed benefits.

The attention of all parties, including within the Western camp, within US capital interests, and even within the Trump camp, is focused on this unprecedented Sino-US "tariff war". A core focus of their attention is to see who will prevail. Looking at the situation, especially from the scene where Trump, as the President of the United States, does not hesitate to lie publicly to pacify the restless and chaotic US financial market, it seems that the situation of the United States is very precarious.

In this case, the number of "bystanders" will only increase, and the "bystander" effect will only strengthen. If Trump presses too hard, countries like Malaysia may gradually increase. Just based on emotional factors, they will feel more and more disgusted with the United States under Trump's administration. And from the perspective of real economic interests, they will carefully weigh and calculate whether they will benefit more by following the United States or by following China. Although many countries are afraid of the United States because it is a "bully", in the face of China, which does not take the "bullying United States" seriously and says "less nonsense, if you don't accept it, just fight", they probably have even less reason not to be in awe of it.

● The Essence of the "Tariff Anti-China Alliance" Is to Create a "WTO V2.0" Dominated by the United States (the West)

When it comes to the "tariff war", we have to mention the so-called "tariff anti-China alliance". In our observation and assessment, the so-called "tariff anti-China alliance" is a variant of the "WTO V2.0" dominated by the United States (the West).

On November 15, 2020, the fourth Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Leaders' Meeting was held via video link. After the meeting, the 10 ASEAN countries and China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, a total of 15 Asia-Pacific countries, officially signed the RCEP agreement. It is not difficult to see that the members of RCEP are almost all located around China, especially in Southeast Asia. With the opening of the China-Laos Railway, Laos, which previously had no railways, let alone modern railways, has suddenly become the "most dazzling" country on the Indochinese Peninsula. Its attractive prospects of becoming the logistics, production, investment, and even energy export center of the Indochinese Peninsula in the future have touched the hearts of many countries, especially Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. This has greatly increased everyone's confidence in the future of RCEP.

It should be emphasized that the influence of RCEP is not limited to the countries within the RCEP region but has also attracted great attention from countries and regions outside the region, such as Europe. RCEP encourages member states to invest in each other, that is, to invest within the region. This also means that "outside" countries and regions will integrate and migrate their supply chains to the countries within the RCEP region, especially to China, either actively or passively.

Speaking of RCEP, we have to mention the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). It is worth noting that on February 27 local time, February 28, 2018, Steven Mnuchin, then US Treasury Secretary (during Trump's first term), told numerous US businessmen at an investment summit hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce that the United States was discussing the matter of rejoining the TPP and had also started multiple "high-level dialogues" with relevant countries. From this, it is not difficult to see why we say that the essence of the "tariff war" mainly targeting China launched during Trump's second term is a variant of the "WTO V2.0" dominated by the United States (the West). The "US discussion on rejoining the TPP" mentioned by Mnuchin in 2018 and the "tariff war" mentioned by Trump in 2025 are thus subtly connected.

In addition, as often mentioned in Oriental Current Affairs Analysis, the Western "financial firewall" strategy, which encompasses both traditional and non-traditional security aspects, with the TPP being an important part, is more focused on the non-traditional security aspect. It can be said that the TPP was established with the intention of targeting China from the very beginning. Its aim was to exclude "China, which has already joined the WTO", from the "world economic and trade circle" and then force China to "re-enter the WTO", so as to fully realize the sinister plot of "encircling and attacking China" with the "financial firewall" strategy. Ironically, to this day, the process of building the "financial firewall" is far from completion. Especially after the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown, the current situation in Syria has presented a state of "nine dragons controlling the waters", and the originally "basically closed" section of the "financial firewall" has long since rotted away.

The question is, if the United States can create a "WTO V2.0" dominated by the United States (the West) with the intention of excluding China from the "world economic and trade circle" and forcing China to "re-enter the WTO", then can't the international community do the opposite? It seems that it certainly can!

Nowadays, Japan, South Korea, and even Australia and New Zealand have joined RCEP. With the official launch of RCEP, an atmosphere of a "WTO V2.0" led by the international community has instantly filled the Western Pacific and even shrouded the globe. For this reason, Mr. Trump might as well guess what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and [Chinese leader] talked about. For example, China-EU economic and trade cooperation under the concept of RCEP, or jointly countering the "tariff big stick" that the United States brandishes wantonly!

Against the backdrop of China being the first to comprehensively and sharply counterattack the United States, or having already joined RCEP, or parties interested in joining RCEP, they are likely to put forward higher demands on the United States, relying on the advantageous conditions of RCEP. In our view, it is possible that the United States will end up negotiating "access" with RCEP member states one by one!

China is the largest, most stable, and most mature market in the world, without a doubt. The remaining manufacturing industries in the United States, such as chips, if not sold to China, who else can they sell to? If we compare the economic war and trade war to a war, then the market is the "provisions" in this war, and it is even more important than technology and capital. In a sense, whoever occupies the market has the right to speak. Therefore, preventing the normal flow of Sino-US business is equivalent to preventing the normal flow of business worldwide and even more so preventing the normal flow of the US dollar, which is obviously detrimental to the foundation of the US dollar's hegemony. The international community will target this point and do what the United States fears, such as accelerating the promotion of the RMB in the world.

● If the International Community Initiates the "Bottom-Line Plan", Even If the United States Forcibly and Publicly Launches the Printing Press on an Unprecedented Scale, It Is Doubtful Whether the "Red Giant Effect" Will Occur

At the end of this discussion, let's take a look at a news report.

The Dalian Maritime Bureau announced that from 10 am to 8 pm on April 9, military tasks will be carried out in some sea areas of the Bohai Sea, and entry will be prohibited.

If we regard the "tariff war" launched by the Trump administration against the world, especially against China, as an act that is extremely close to "laying all the cards on the table" at the non-traditional security level, then at the traditional security level, the international community may have to make full preparations. That is to say, such a collision at the non-traditional security level may very well spill over to the traditional security level.

Once again, it should be emphasized that the "Taiwan issue" is no longer a "card" in the hands of the United States. When and how to liberate Taiwan is in the hands of the international community. If the United States still wants to play some dirty tricks, as long as China is willing, it can initiate the "bottom-line plan" at any time to retake Taiwan and completely squeeze the US dollar out of the East Asian market. At this point, how can the United States publicly and on an unprecedented scale launch the printing press? In our view, even if the United States forcibly and publicly launches the printing press on an unprecedented scale, it is doubtful whether the "red giant effect" will occur.

Therefore, for this exercise in the Bohai Sea, everyone can closely observe in the following days whether some "heavy weapons" are being tested, such as the Type 096 strategic nuclear submarine, the "JL-3" intercontinental ballistic missile, high-energy weapons, etc. If there are subsequent reports confirming this, it means that the international community is strongly warning Trump: Aren't you fond of playing "creating problems with one hand and solving them with the other"? If you go too far and cross the line, we will turn over the "table" and leave you "neither able to reach the sky nor touch the ground"!

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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