2025年4月7日，星期一，第1220期

特朗普在全球范围内肆意挥舞关税大棒，在非传统层面为中国提供了“尊王攘夷”的可操作性抓手

【媒体报道】

4月5日，美国前总统奥巴马发表演讲，首次严厉抨击特朗普第二任期政策。奥巴马在对谈活动中发表相关言论，他批评特朗普征收关税“对美国没好处”。奥巴马还说：“想象一下，如果我当年做了这些事，如今保持沉默的那些政党绝不会容忍我。别因为特朗普行为古怪就以为他的总统任期不会有危险。我们不需要一个自封的国王、伪独裁者、到处惩罚敌人的人再来四年。”

【讨论纪要】

●特朗普在全球范围内肆意挥舞关税大棒，在非传统层面为中国提供了“尊王攘夷”的可操作性抓手

尽管美国总统特朗普于2025年4月2日宣布对从欧盟进口的商品加征20%的关税，但鉴于本次特朗普政府发动“关税战”的主要目标针对中国，且以色列总理内塔尼亚胡安全从欧洲返回（此前欧盟操纵下的国际刑事法院已对内塔尼亚胡发出逮捕令）的情况综合观察，仍不要将欧美关系以“绝对对立”的角度加以观察。某种意义上说，特朗普政府对欧盟加增关税，更多是基于“合纵连横，远交近攻”层面的策略性措施。在特朗普眼中，“合纵连横，远交近攻”的主要目标，除了欧盟外，还有俄罗斯。

为了更好展开讨论，我们来看一则新闻报道。

4月6日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡抵达美国。报道称，他将于4月7日与美国总统特朗普进行会面。

这一新闻报道，除了验证此前东方时事解读有关目前阶段欧美仍有基本协调与沟通的相关评估外。值得注意的是，内塔尼亚胡是在美国特朗普政府宣布向全球征收关税后首位与特朗普会面的外国领导人。

到目前为止，中国是美国特朗普政府宣布向全球征收关税后，世界范围内的第一个，也是唯一一个在第一时间做出犀利且全面反击的国家。

中方认为，美国以“对等”为名行霸权之实，牺牲各国正当利益服务一己之私，将“美国优先”凌驾于国际规则之上，是典型的单边主义、保护主义和经济霸凌行径。中方已经发布了《中国政府关于反对美国滥施关税的立场》，在采取切实措施进行反制的同时表明了严正态度。

值得注意的是，4月2日，在美方宣布对包括中国在内的所有贸易伙伴征收“对等关税”后，中方已在世贸组织争端解决机制起诉。

尽管中国为全世界树立了榜样。基于现有国际秩序，比如，联合国宪章，WTO世贸原则等，在全球层面的“尊王攘夷”上对美国进行孤立，但收效并不理想。比如，欧盟在这个问题上跟中国就跟得不是那么紧。在我们看来，究其主要原因，在类似国际规则，国际秩序等方面，欧美，俄罗斯和美国都信奉帝国主义，某种意义上说，他们之间在破坏国际秩序、规则方面存在某种广泛利益。如，基于各自的地缘政治、文化、历史等综合因素形成的“小算盘”“小九九”，他们从骨子里都不希望看到中国的崛起和复兴，都对中国提防有加。最典型的案例就是俄罗斯“阿富汗政策小九九”。

毛泽东主席在《中国社会各阶级的分析》一文中提到 “谁是我们的敌人？谁是我们的朋友？这个问题是革命的首要问题。

如果说基于联合国宪章，WTO世贸原则等，在全球层面的“尊王攘夷”上对美国进行孤立不能轻易将美、欧、俄摘开，从而更好开展我们的“合纵连横，远交近攻”的外交政策。也就是说，特朗普在全球范围内肆意挥舞关税大棒，在非传统层面为中国提供了“尊王攘夷”的可操作性抓手。

●欧、俄、日、印等各方同样在密切关注中美“关税战”的后续发展，且明显都有了当“渔翁”的心态

经济基础决定上层建筑的核心原因就在于，经济利益是最为实实在在的。“加是为了减，想减就得谈，谈就谈‘关税反华同盟’”的把戏特朗普政府可以用，那么，国际社会就不能反弹琵琶吗？比如，基于联合国宪章，WTO世贸原则等，在全球层面的“尊王攘夷”上对美国进行孤立，从最为实际的经济利益角度出发，对欧、俄等，施行我们的“合纵连横、远交近攻”。在我们看来，当然可以！且要比此前单纯基于联合国宪章，WTO世贸原则等现有国际秩序的破坏者角度对美国进行孤立更加行之有效。所以，本质上，特朗普政府向全球发动“关税战”从整体上与长远看是一步臭棋。这恐怕是中国在世界范围内，第一个，在第一时间对特朗普政府发动“关税战”进行犀利且全面反击的主要原因之一。

值得注意的是，4月7日，美国总统特朗普叫嚣称，若中国在 2025 年 4 月 8 日前不撤回此次加税措施，美国将于4月9日对中国商品加征额外50%的关税。同时，美方将中止与中方的一切会谈，并启动与其他有意洽谈国家的磋商。

尽管特朗普叫嚣“美方将中止与中方的一切会谈，并启动与其他有意洽谈国家的磋商”但无论如何，有两点是不争的事实：其一，欧，俄，日，印等都不想第一时间有所表态；其二，“球”被踢回到了特朗普的脚下。显然，包括欧、俄、日、印等各方同样在密切关注中美“关税战”的后续发展，且明显在第一时间，在中国坚决反击美国的背景下，都有了当“渔翁”的心态。可以说，这是中国通过自身的实力争取到的。

●特朗普政府欲将以色列打造成“加是为了减，想减就得谈，谈就谈‘关税反华同盟’”的样板

让我们将讨论的焦点转回到以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的身上。

在我们看来，在内塔尼亚胡顺利从欧洲返回，进而证明了欧美之间的确仍有基本的协调、沟通渠道的同时，在欧、俄、日、印等各方同样在密切关注中美“关税战”的后续发展，且明显都有了当“渔翁”的心态之际，特朗普政府也借此向俄罗斯和中国，以及方方面面传递了一组微妙信号：

第一，警告俄罗斯不要对利用欧美之间的矛盾进一步攫取利益过于想入非非；

第二，警告中国，即便在最实实在在的经济利益层面，不要过于期望利用欧美矛盾孤立美国；

第三，伴随特朗普“美方将中止与中方的一切会谈，并启动与其他有意洽谈国家的磋商”的叫嚣，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡已经被赋予“新任务”，那就是要做“第一人”。很显然面对中美两强相争，特朗普政府透过内塔尼亚胡访美之行，向方方面面暗示：是时候表态和站队了，内塔尼亚胡已经成为“第一人”——在行动层面跟随美国对中国加关税。也就是说，特朗普政府欲将以色列打造成“加是为了减，想减就得谈，谈就谈‘关税反华同盟’”的样板。

此外，就特朗普政府对全球发动“关税战”，我们想要额外强调几点的是：

第一点，之所以美国的关税名单中没有俄罗斯与白俄罗斯，尤其是没有俄罗斯，首先一点就在于美国对俄罗斯还有一些刚性的贸易需求，尤其在中国反制裁美国越收越紧的情况下，比如，铀、钛、铝、“三稀”金属（稀有、稀散、稀土）等。此外，美国和俄罗斯，白俄罗斯在传统安全层面仍在激烈对抗，且在这个过程中，两国经济对中国的依赖越来越严重。何况原本俄罗斯本来和美国的贸易规模就很有限。显然，两国不会因此得罪中国，跟随美国对中国加增关税。所以，总体来说，特朗普很清楚，对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯征收关税不过是自己给自己找麻烦，回头还得自己打脸自己的脸，这对通过以色列树立“加是为了减，想减就得谈，谈就谈‘关税反华同盟’”的样板效应是有损害的。

第二点，中美在未来一段时间的较量焦点将集中在非传统安全层面上，比如，在经济，尤其是金融层面。尤其是特朗普政府对全球发动“关税战”会不会玩“前一秒摊牌，后一秒认怂呢”的把戏，这是方方面面都在密切观察的。在我们看来，如果特朗普政府一意孤行，强行加关税，无异于自己把脖子套进了绞索。当然这也是一种“半渡”，关键是如何判断其是否处于“不可逆”，比如，在旁边没人的情况下，什么时候，如何“踹了凳子”，这就需要“动态评估”。

第三点，在传统安全层面，特朗普自知没有资本和中国摊牌，尤其在未能完成对俄罗斯实质性消化的情况下更是如此。于是只能选择在非传统安全层面以“我死给你看”的方式讹诈方方面面，尤其是中国。但是，基于第二点的讨论，我们认为，尽管在非传统安全层面，西方也一样没有能力绕过“半渡而击”。

●想要当“渔翁”，不仅要有实力，更要有脑子，到底是跟着美国得利多，还是跟着中国得利多，自己算！

值得一提的是，以色列是否敢于跟随美国对中国加关税同样需要后续观察，在我们看来，除非找到中国商品转口贸易的替代国，否则以色列很可能仅仅是装装样子。所以，大家不妨密切注意，一旦以色列宣布跟随美国对中国加增关税，以色列和中东的某个国家的贸易额是否会出现短期内的突然大增。不过，有一点可以肯定，特朗普政府恰恰是这样干的，在其气势汹汹地向全球，尤其向中国发动“关税战”（甚至对越南加增46%关税）的同时，却不声不响地保留了墨西哥这个中国商品对美国转口贸易最主要的通道。

需要强调的是，墨西哥、印度等国是不是敢跟着美国对中国加关税，也是我们未来一段时间需要重点观察的内容之一。如果其敢这样做，中国一定会对其反制，否则就不能对特朗普政府向全球，尤其向中国发动“关税战”的过程中明显内嵌“伴随战略攻击的战略测试”之歹毒图谋进行有效打断、拦截。

需要提醒这些国家的事，在这个过程中，正所谓“神仙打架，小鬼遭殃”，恐怕距离你们必须做选择，必须站队的时刻来临已经不远了！这也意味着他们在中美之间搞投机的空间将会大幅减少。也就是说，想要当“渔翁”，不仅要有实力，更要有脑子，到底是跟着美国得利多，还是跟着中国得利多，自己算！

美国知道非传统安全层面不可能单靠自己战胜中国，要找帮手，而这些帮手很多来自中国的邻居们，他们内心深处都惧怕中国的强大。但我们回避不了，勇敢面对即可，把坏事转换成好事。比如，空间换时间。再比如，充分利用，特朗普肆意挥舞关税大棒的的确确损害了每个国家的实实在在的经济利益这一点，毕竟，天大地大，肚子问题最大。当然，除了经济利益外，还有其他方面的因素，比如，意识形态上，文化上的，心理上的等等。但恐怕这些都不是中国要关心的，这是你们的问题，由你们自己综合考虑。

要知道，在这个世界上，有能力玩“最低经济内循环”且能够顺势推动“循环升级”并最终改出，恢复正常，重归经济高速发展的，只有中国一家。欧盟虽有潜力（在讨论“地中海计划”的时候我们提及过，但现在没有了，典型案例就是德国提出的工业制造V4.0仍停留在计划书上），但在俄乌战争爆发至今尚未结束的背景下已无可能，更别提循环升级了。至于俄罗斯，只是生存下去而已。

●西方资本利益会趁机四处大肆兼并的目标除了美国之外，更包括美国国内的公司、资产，甚至美国普通百姓的福利、权益等

特朗普对时间非常敏感，随着大量国债将要到期，美国必须要开始公开、史无前例的大规模印钱。

近日，美国参议院经过通宵达旦的“马拉松式”投票，于周六凌晨以51-48的微弱优势通过了一项名为“预算协调”的议案。两名共和党参议员加入民主党阵营投了反对票。该议案下周将送交共和党领导的众议院进行审议。

在我们看来，这个议案的重点在于：共和党可以在没有民主党支持的情况下，仅以简单多数通过特朗普的税收、边境安全和军事优先事项法案。

这就是独裁，特朗普要为自己的头上扣上一顶“王冠”。此外，值得大家注意的是，未来十年增加约5.7万亿美元的联邦政府债务，而这只是静态的。而动态评估，则和市场利率和通胀有关。所以，这区区5.7万亿美元是打不住的，翻翻都是可能的！这说明目前特朗普政府面临的债务压力的确很大，想要公开的，史无前例地大规模开启印钞机真的很急很急。这或是特朗普明知对全球，尤其是对中国开打“关税战”是一步臭棋也要硬着头皮上的主要原因之一。

由于中国坚持原则立场毫不动摇，在方方面面不想轻易表态的同时，显然也拉高了美国和方方面面打交道的成本，尤其是“时间成本”。值得一提的是，特朗普四面树敌，很多来自西方阵营内部。所以，中国在第一时间，在全球范围内第一个做出犀利且全面反击的另一个主要原因就是，瞄着美国内部恶斗不断，瞄着美国内斗已经外溢到整个西方阵营，尤其是欧洲方向，为特朗普的内部敌人和外部敌人树立反特朗普政府的榜样！

有趣的是，恰恰在这个时候，沉寂已久的美国民主党人终于发声了，美国前总统奥巴马公开炮轰特朗普。奥巴马表示，别因为特朗普行为古怪就以为他的总统任期不会有危险。“我们不需要一个自封的国王、伪独裁者、到处惩罚敌人的人再来四年”。

也许拜登们终于等到了他们认为“成熟的时机”——如果特朗普政府在关税问题上对中国不妥协、不让步，那就利用中国扳倒他们；如果特朗普政府妥协、不让步，那就以“叛国”的名义扳倒他们。不难看出，美国似乎一朝有了内部爆发“颜色革命”的味道。好在特朗普上台伊始，把严重民主党化的美国国际开发署和教育部解散了。但奥巴马的讲话明摆着在警告特朗普，我可以在美国国内给你制造一场“颜色革命”。

最后需要补充的是，西方，世界，最后很可能都会出现大幅经济波动，在此情况下，国际社会还要警惕基于“水淹南方”层面的，西方资本利益会趁机四处大肆兼并的可能性。值得一提的是，兼并目标除了美国之外，更包括美国国内的公司、资产，甚至美国普通百姓的福利、权益等。对特朗普和“特朗普们”来说，美国的未来如何他们毫不关心，但这个过程的确能发笔大财（规模不下50万亿美元）。恐怕这也是特朗普政府对全球肆无忌惮挥舞“关税大棒”的另一个不可告人的动机。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Monday, April 7, 2025, Issue No. 1220

Trump has been brandishing the tariff baton around the world at will, providing China with an operable lever for "respecting the king and repelling the barbarians" at the non-traditional level.

[Media Coverage]

On April 5th, former US President Obama delivered a speech, severely criticizing Trump's policies during his second term for the first time. Obama made relevant remarks during a conversation event. He criticized Trump's imposition of tariffs, saying that "it's not good for the United States." Obama also said, "Imagine if I had done these things back then, the parties that are silent now would never tolerate me. Don't think that just because Trump behaves oddly, his presidency won't be dangerous. We don't need someone who proclaims himself a king, a pseudo-dictator, and punishes enemies everywhere for another four years."

【Discussion Summary】

● Trump has been brandishing the tariff baton around the world at will, providing China with an operable lever for "respecting the king and repelling the barbarians" at the non-traditional level.

Although US President Trump announced on April 2nd, 2025, that he would impose a 20% tariff on goods imported from the EU, considering that the main target of the Trump administration's "tariff war" this time is China, and the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu safely returned from Europe (the International Criminal Court under the manipulation of the EU had previously issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu), it is still not advisable to view the EU-US relationship from an "absolutely opposite" perspective. In a sense, the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on the EU is more of a strategic measure at the level of "forming alliances and making friends with distant countries while attacking neighboring ones." In Trump's eyes, the main targets of "forming alliances and making friends with distant countries while attacking neighboring ones," besides the EU, also include Russia.

To better facilitate the discussion, let's take a look at a news report.

On April 6th, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in the United States. The report said that he will meet with US President Trump on April 7th.

This news report not only verifies the previous assessment by Oriental Current Affairs Interpretation that there is still basic coordination and communication between Europe and the United States at this stage. It is worth noting that Netanyahu is the first foreign leader to meet with Trump after the Trump administration in the United States announced the imposition of tariffs globally.

So far, China is the first and only country in the world that has made a sharp and comprehensive counterattack immediately after the Trump administration in the United States announced the imposition of tariffs globally.

China believes that the United States, under the guise of "reciprocity," is actually practicing hegemony, sacrificing the legitimate interests of all countries to serve its own selfish interests, and placing "America First" above international rules. This is a typical act of unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying. China has issued the "Position of the Chinese Government on Opposing the US's Abuse of Tariffs," expressing a solemn attitude while taking practical measures to counteract.

It is worth noting that on April 2nd, after the US announced the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners including China, China filed a lawsuit in the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.

Although China has set an example for the world. Based on the existing international order, such as the UN Charter, WTO principles, etc., to isolate the United States in terms of "respecting the king and repelling the barbarians" at the global level, the results have not been ideal. For example, the EU has not followed China closely on this issue. In our view, the main reason is that in aspects such as similar international rules and international order, Europe, Russia, and the United States all believe in imperialism. In a sense, there is some kind of broad common interest among them in undermining the international order and rules. Due to various comprehensive factors such as their respective geopolitical locations, cultures, and histories, they all have their own "ulterior motives" and are extremely wary of China's rise and rejuvenation from the bottom of their hearts. The most typical case is Russia's "Afghanistan policy ulterior motives."

Chairman Mao Zedong mentioned in the article "Analysis of the Classes in Chinese Society" that "Who are our enemies? Who are our friends? This is the primary question of the revolution."

If it is not easy to isolate the United States, Europe, and Russia based on the UN Charter, WTO principles, etc., to better carry out our "forming alliances and making friends with distant countries while attacking neighboring ones" diplomatic policy at the global level of "respecting the king and repelling the barbarians," then Trump's wanton brandishing of the tariff baton around the world at will provides China with an operable lever for "respecting the king and repelling the barbarians" at the non-traditional level.

● The EU, Russia, Japan, India and other parties are also closely following the subsequent development of the China-US "tariff war", and obviously all have the mentality of playing the role of the "fisherman".

The core reason why the economic base determines the superstructure lies in the fact that economic interests are the most tangible. The trick of "imposing tariffs in order to reduce them, wanting to reduce them means having to negotiate, and negotiating means forming a 'tariff anti-China alliance'" that the Trump administration can use, then can't the international community play a counter-role? For example, based on the UN Charter, WTO principles, etc., to isolate the United States at the global level in terms of "respecting the king and repelling the barbarians", and from the most practical economic interest perspective, to implement our "forming alliances and making friends with distant countries while attacking neighboring ones" against Europe, Russia, etc. In our view, of course it can! And it will be more effective than simply isolating the United States from the perspective of the existing international order's destroyers based on the UN Charter, WTO principles, etc. Therefore, in essence, the Trump administration's launching of a "tariff war" globally is a bad move overall and in the long run. This is probably one of the main reasons why China was the first in the world and responded immediately and comprehensively to the Trump administration's "tariff war".

It is worth noting that on April 7th, US President Trump boasted that if China does not withdraw the current tax increase measures before April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods on April 9th. At the same time, the US side will suspend all talks with China and initiate consultations with other countries interested in negotiations.

Although Trump boasted that "the US side will suspend all talks with China and initiate consultations with other countries interested in negotiations", in any case, there are two undisputed facts: First, Europe, Russia, Japan, India, etc. do not want to make a statement immediately; Second, the "ball" has been kicked back to Trump's feet. Obviously, including Europe, Russia, Japan, India and other parties are also closely following the subsequent development of the China-US "tariff war", and obviously, at the first time, against the background of China's resolute counterattack against the United States, they all have the mentality of playing the role of the "fisherman". It can be said that this is obtained by China through its own strength.

● The Trump administration wants to make Israel a model for "imposing tariffs in order to reduce them, wanting to reduce them means having to negotiate, and negotiating means forming a 'tariff anti-China alliance'"

Let's turn our discussion back to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

In our view, while Netanyahu's safe return from Europe proves that there are indeed still basic coordination and communication channels between Europe and the United States, at the same time, when Europe, Russia, Japan, India and other parties are also closely following the subsequent development of the China-US "tariff war", and obviously all have the mentality of playing the role of the "fisherman", the Trump administration also uses this opportunity to send a set of subtle signals to Russia, China, and all aspects:

First, warn Russia not to be too fanciful about further seizing benefits by exploiting the contradictions between Europe and the United States;

Second, warn China that even at the most tangible economic interest level, do not overly expect to isolate the United States by exploiting the contradictions between Europe and the United States;

Third, along with Trump's boasting that "the US side will suspend all talks with China and initiate consultations with other countries interested in negotiations", Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been given a "new task", which is to be the "first person". Obviously, in the face of the struggle between China and the United States, through Netanyahu's visit to the United States, the Trump administration has hinted to all parties: it is time to state your position and choose sides, and Netanyahu has become the "first person" - following the United States in imposing tariffs on China at the action level. That is to say, the Trump administration wants to make Israel a model for "imposing tariffs in order to reduce them, wanting to reduce them means having to negotiate, and negotiating means forming a 'tariff anti-China alliance'".

In addition, regarding the Trump administration's launching of a "tariff war" globally, we would like to emphasize a few additional points:

The first point is that the reason why Russia and Belarus, especially Russia, are not on the US tariff list is that the United States still has some rigid trade needs for Russia, especially when China's counter-sanctions against the United States are getting tighter and tighter, such as uranium, titanium, aluminum, "rare, scattered and rare earth" metals (rare, scattered and rare earth). In addition, the United States and Russia, Belarus are still in intense confrontation at the traditional security level, and in this process, the economies of the two countries are becoming increasingly dependent on China. Moreover, the trade scale between Russia and the United States is already very limited. Obviously, the two countries will not offend China and follow the United States to impose additional tariffs on China. Therefore, overall, Trump knows very well that imposing tariffs on Russia and Belarus is just asking for trouble for himself, and he will have to slap himself in the face later, which is harmful to the model effect of establishing a "tariff anti-China alliance" through Israel.

The second point is that the focus of the competition between China and the United States in the coming period will be concentrated on non-traditional security levels, such as in the economy, especially the financial level. Especially whether the Trump administration will play the trick of "playing all-in one second and backing down the next second" in launching a "tariff war" globally is something that all parties are closely observing. In our view, if the Trump administration insists on its own way and forcibly imposes tariffs, it is tantamount to putting its own neck in the noose. Of course, this is also a kind of "midstream", and the key is how to judge whether it is in an "irreversible" state, such as when and how to "kick the stool" when no one is around, which requires "dynamic assessment".

The third point is that at the traditional security level, Trump knows that he has no capital to play cards with China, especially when he has not completed the substantial digestion of Russia. Therefore, he can only choose to blackmail all parties, especially China, in the way of "I'll show you my death" at the non-traditional security level. However, based on the discussion of the second point, we believe that although at the non-traditional security level, the West also has no ability to bypass the "midstream attack".

● To be a "fisherman", one not only needs strength but also brains. It's up to oneself to calculate whether following the United States will bring more benefits or following China will.

It is worth mentioning that whether Israel dares to follow the United States in imposing tariffs on China also needs further observation. In our view, unless it finds an alternative country for the re-export trade of Chinese goods, otherwise Israel is likely just going through the motions. So, everyone might as well pay close attention. Once Israel announces that it will follow the United States in imposing tariffs on China, whether there will be a sudden significant increase in the trade volume between Israel and a certain country in the Middle East in the short term. However, one thing is certain. The Trump administration has precisely done so. While it aggressively launched a "tariff war" globally, especially against China (even imposing a 46% tariff on Vietnam), it quietly retained Mexico, which is the most important channel for the re-export trade of Chinese goods to the United States.

It should be emphasized that whether countries such as Mexico and India dare to follow the United States in imposing tariffs on China is also one of the key points we need to focus on observing in the coming period. If they dare to do so, China will surely counteract them. Otherwise, it will not be able to effectively disrupt and intercept the sinister plot of "accompanying strategic attacks with strategic tests" that is clearly embedded in the process of the Trump administration's launching of a "tariff war" globally, especially against China.

What needs to be reminded to these countries is that, as the saying goes, "When the gods fight, the little devils suffer." It seems that the time when you must make a choice and take sides is not far away! This also means that the room for them to speculate between China and the United States will be greatly reduced. That is to say, to be a "fisherman", one not only needs strength but also brains. It's up to oneself to calculate whether following the United States will bring more benefits or following China will.

The United States knows that it is impossible to defeat China on its own at the non-traditional security level. It needs to find helpers, and many of these helpers come from China's neighbors, who deep down fear China's rise. But we can't avoid it. We should face it bravely and turn bad things into good ones. For example, trading space for time. Another example is to make full use of the fact that Trump's wanton brandishing of the tariff baton has indeed damaged the tangible economic interests of each country. After all, when it comes to the most important things in life, food and shelter come first. Of course, apart from economic interests, there are other factors, such as those in the ideological, cultural, and psychological aspects. But these are probably not what China needs to worry about. These are your problems, and you should consider them comprehensively.

It should be noted that in this world, only China has the ability to play a "lowest economic internal circulation", smoothly promote "circulation upgrade" and finally get out of it, return to normal, and resume high-speed economic development. Although the EU has potential (we mentioned this when discussing the "Mediterranean Plan", but now it doesn't exist. A typical case is that Germany's proposed Industrial Manufacturing V4.0 remains only on paper), but it is impossible under the background of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, let alone circulation upgrade. As for Russia, it is just struggling to survive.

● In addition to the United States, the Western capital interests will also take the opportunity to aggressively acquire companies, assets within the United States, and even the welfare and rights of ordinary Americans.

Trump is very sensitive to time. As a large number of national debts are about to mature, the United States must start openly and unprecedentedly printing money on a large scale.

Recently, after an all-night "marathon" voting, the US Senate passed a bill called the "Budget Reconciliation" with a narrow margin of 51-48 early Saturday morning. Two Republican senators joined the Democratic camp and voted against it. The bill will be sent to the Republican-led House of Representatives for review next week.

In our view, the key point of this bill is that the Republicans can pass Trump's tax, border security, and military priority bills with a simple majority without the support of the Democrats.

This is dictatorship. Trump wants to put a "crown" on his own head. In addition, it is worth noting that about $5.7 trillion of federal government debt will increase in the next ten years, and this is just a static estimate. For a dynamic assessment, it is related to market interest rates and inflation. So, this mere $5.7 trillion won't be enough. It may even double! This shows that the current debt pressure faced by the Trump administration is indeed very large, and it is really eager to openly and unprecedentedly start the printing press on a large scale. This may be one of the main reasons why Trump knows that launching a "tariff war" globally, especially against China, is a bad move but still has to grit his teeth and go ahead.

Due to China's unwavering stance on principles and its reluctance to easily state its position in various aspects, it has obviously increased the cost for the United States to deal with various parties, especially the "time cost". It is worth mentioning that Trump has made enemies everywhere, many of whom come from within the Western camp. Therefore, another major reason why China was the first in the world and made a sharp and comprehensive counterattack immediately is to target the continuous internal strife in the United States and the spillover of the internal strife to the entire Western camp, especially in the European direction, and set an example against the Trump administration for Trump's internal and external enemies!

Interestingly, just at this time, the long-silent US Democrats finally spoke out. Former US President Obama publicly blasted Trump. Obama said that don't think that his presidency will not be in danger just because Trump behaves oddly. "We don't need a self-proclaimed king, a pseudo-dictator, and someone who punishes enemies everywhere for another four years."

Maybe the Bidens have finally waited for what they think is the "ripe moment" - if the Trump administration does not compromise or make concessions on the tariff issue with China, then use China to bring them down; if the Trump administration compromises or makes concessions, then bring them down on the charge of "treason". It is not difficult to see that the United States seems to have the flavor of an internal "color revolution" breaking out overnight. Fortunately, at the beginning of his presidency, Trump dissolved the seriously Democratized US Agency for International Development and the Department of Education. But Obama's speech clearly warns Trump that he can create a "color revolution" for him within the United States.

Finally, it should be added that Western countries and the world are very likely to experience significant economic fluctuations. In this case, the international community should also be vigilant against the possibility that Western capital interests will take the opportunity to aggressively acquire companies, assets within the United States, and even the welfare and rights of ordinary Americans based on the level of "flooding the South". It is worth mentioning that in addition to the United States, the acquisition targets also include US domestic companies, assets, and even the welfare and rights of ordinary Americans. Trump and the "Trumps" don't care about the future of the United States at all, but this process can indeed make a fortune (the scale is no less than $50 trillion). Perhaps this is another unspoken motive for the Trump administration to brandish the "tariff baton" around the world without scruples.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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