2025年4月4日，星期四，第1218期

目前国际局势的总体格局出现以下几个新特征

【媒体报道】

4月2日，在白宫玫瑰园的发布会上，特朗普表示，美国将对所有出口至美国的商品征收至少10%的关税，并对那些贸易失衡最严重的国家施加更高的税率。其中，中国将面临34%的关税，欧盟的税率为20%，越南则被征收高达46%的关税。特朗普政府同时宣布，加拿大和墨西哥暂时不会被纳入此次关税调整范围，它们不仅免于10%的基准关税，也不会被列入针对特定国家的互惠关税计划。不过，这一豁免仅为暂时性措施，10%的关税将在特朗普政府对加拿大和墨西哥实施的25%关税被取消或暂停后才会生效。

【讨论纪要】

●台湾问题就涉及到联合国存在和法统的正当性问题

我们注意到，4月1日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在应邀对俄罗斯进行正式访问期间接受了某俄罗斯知名媒体集团专访。

王毅强调，今年也是台湾光复80周年。借此机会，我想强调的是，台湾回归中国是二战胜利果实和战后国际秩序的重要组成部分。1943年，中美英三国发表《开罗宣言》，明确规定将日本窃取的台湾归还中国。1945年，中美英苏发表《波茨坦公告》，重申“开罗宣言之条件必将实施”。同年8月15日，日本接受《波茨坦公告》无条件投降，之后签署投降书，承诺“忠诚履行波茨坦公告各项规定之义务”。这一系列具有国际法律效力的文件都确认了中国对台湾的主权，奠定了战后国际秩序的基石。台湾是中国领土一部分的历史和法理事实不容置疑，台湾同胞作为中国人的身份认同不容打压。无论台湾岛内形势如何变化，中国终将统一、也必将统一的历史大势不可阻挡。

在我们的观察与评估中，外长王毅应邀对俄罗斯进行访问，一方面意在鼓励俄罗斯尽可能高的对特朗普要价；另一方面则瞄着逐渐成型的，围绕中东问题和乌克兰问题形成的“两桌麻将”注入“变量”。

联合国是二战成果的具体体现。现在的联合国是个什么状况呢？现在联合国的状况就是美国在肆无忌惮的破坏联合国宪章，要退出联合国，甚至一家独大要取而代之。从王毅外长强调的内容大家不难看出，台湾问题就涉及到联合国存在和法统的正当性问题。此前，东方时事解读提到过全球版本的“尊王攘夷”问题。相对于中国春秋时期，今天的“王”就是联合国宪章，今天中国相当于齐国，美国相当于楚国。这次王毅外长在访俄期间强调台湾回归中国是二战胜利果实和战后国际秩序的重要组成部分，也是在暗示欧盟，是不是要接受美国的利诱介入“台湾问题”。

在特朗普政府上台伊始就大肆炒作“合纵连横，远交近攻”战略的背景下，其再度拿“台湾问题”说事儿的一个险恶意图就在于，引诱俄罗斯和欧盟，引诱他们介入“台湾问题”，以“台湾问题”为筹码和中国讨价还价。

●演训的最大特点就是，随时可以从演训转为实战。如果再形象一点描述，那就是“手指已经扣住扳机，只差一道‘开火’的命令”

为了更好的展开讨论，我们再来看两则新闻报道。

4月2日，东部战区新闻发言人施毅陆军大校表示，4月2日，中国人民解放军东部战区位台湾海峡中部、南部相关海域组织“海峡雷霆—2025A”演练，重点实施查证识别、警告驱离、拦截扣押等科目，检验部队区域管控、联合封控、精打击要能力。

4月2日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。

有记者提问：据报道，美国、欧盟、日本等就中国人民解放军4月1日在台岛周边开展联合演训发表评论，声称反对以武力或胁迫单方面改变现状，指责中方在台岛周边“不负责任的威胁和军事施压”没有正当理由。中方对此有何评论？

郭嘉昆：少数国家及组织对中方的指责罔顾事实，颠倒黑白，干涉中国内政。中方对此强烈不满，坚决反对。台湾问题纯属中国内政，不容外来干涉。破坏台海和平稳定的是“台独”分裂活动和外部势力纵容支持。有关国家和组织如果真心希望台海和平稳定，就应当顺应国际社会坚持一个中国原则的大势，恪守对中方所做政治承诺，尊重中国的主权和领土完整，反对任何形式的“台独”。

有趣的是，面对这次对台“闪电突击”，“台独”叛军，美日军事同盟“第一时间”均无反应，或者说，对如此突发状况完全没有掌握。这恐怕是本次联合演训取名“海峡雷霆—2025A”的主要原因。意在彰显，迅雷不及掩耳！

如果说，此前“联合利剑”系列军事演习是宣布“准备收台”，那么这次开启的“海峡雷霆”系列军事演习，某种意义上说是“开始收台”，具有强烈的“最后通牒”的意味。演训的最大特点就是，随时可以从演训转为实战。如果再形象一点描述，那就是“手指已经扣住扳机，只差一道‘开火’的命令”。

●虽然欧盟和日本跟随美国在“台湾问题”上说三道四，但却各揣小心思。至于俄罗斯，如预期一样，未敢轻举妄动

此外，值得注意的是，欧盟接了特朗普政府街“台湾问题”说事儿的“球”。这一点对我们来说属于“等待性质”。感兴趣的网友可以登录东方网站阅读“核心摘要”3月22日第1207期或重播当天的音频内容。其中有如下描述：

......

特朗普政府在“台湾问题”上做文章还有一个险恶意图，那就是“带节奏”希望能够以此引诱欧、俄参与其中。

在我们的观察与评估中，在“台湾问题”上，俄罗斯恐怕是“有这个贼心，没这个贼胆”，但欧盟则有可能响应美国。对特朗普来说，欧盟的参与，有利于阻止中欧关系的进一步靠近。对欧盟来说，也想以此为筹码和中国讨价还价，强调“欧盟是‘有身价’的”。道理很简单，欧盟的一些政要，比如，马克龙此前公布了2025年有访华计划。其原理类似于欧美合作了一把，在菲律宾前总统杜特尔特被捕一事后续发展中的“各取所需”。

......

通过上述回顾，东方时事解读此前关于特朗普政府拿“台湾问题”做文章之真实意图的相关评估得到进一步验证。值得强调的是，尽管欧盟“接球”，但却在“海峡雷霆-2025A”联合演训结束后才敢吱声。也就是说，当他们看到解放军正式公布演训代号——“海峡雷霆-2025A”中的那个“A”后，长长出了一口气——尽管台海局势风高浪急，但距离摊牌还有“一指之遥”。这是欧盟敢于“接球”的主要原因。欧盟发出的信号和清楚：美国人递过来的这“球”我接了，会将其作为和中国讨价还价的筹码使用。

至于日本为什么也会跟随欧美一起跳出来，一方面，是有来自美国的压力；另一边大家别忘了日本极右政权一直在搞“最后一次战略投机”。再加上日本在经济上严重依赖中国（包括日本极右政府在福岛核污染水排放事件后续发展中的被动处境），以及长期近距离遭受中国的军事威慑，对中国手里几乎没有啥牌的日本极右也想借“台湾问题”找找筹码。值得一提的是，因在“南海问题”上中美准备谈，而且美国很可能会对中国让步，所以日本极右很识趣的没有敢于轻易触碰。

俄罗斯的表现也符合上面回顾中的初步评估。未敢在“台湾问题”上轻举妄动。以此类推，俄罗斯此时此刻恐怕也不敢在涉藏、涉疆、涉港问题上轻举妄动。所以，在“南亚破局”问题上，恐怕特朗普政府又要失望了，看俄罗斯的表现，最多也就到“解冻”的程度。这对已经上台2个多月，到目前为止，连“南亚破局”进程“解冻”都没有做到的特朗普政府来说，绝对是“不及格”！

●目前国际局势的总体格局出现以下几个新特征

对中国来说，应该如何客观看待欧盟在“台湾问题”上跟着美国跑这一现象？在我们看来：

第一，台海局面没有发生本质变化；

第二，在“第一”的基础上，当前台海局势的最新变化总体上是因应“台独”当局的进一步挑衅；

第三，在“第二”的基础上，透过“海峡雷霆-2025A”联合演训的细节，以及“台独”叛军的具体应对来观察，中国在随时统一台湾，尤其是武统台湾的问题上是有所得的。这也说明，欧、日尽管在“台湾问题”上跟随美国，但其对美国在“台湾问题”上的影响力评估却是“持续递减”，更何况欧、日各揣各小心思。这一点体现在他们在“台湾问题”上的姿态基本“维持原状”，这恐怕与特朗普政府期待他们在“台湾问题”上的表现是有“温差”的；

第四，在“第三”的基础上，这种“温差”主要体现在，尽管在非传统安全层面，俄罗斯和美国“互动连连”，但欧盟也在非传统安全层面慢慢靠向中国，尤其在特朗普疯狂挥舞关税大棒的背景下更显突出；

第五，虽然总的来说，中国“有得有失”，但推敲细节不难发现，中国是“得多失少”。

最后需要补充的是，目前国际局势的总体格局出现以下几个新特征：

其一，美俄之间，中欧之间，都呈现出类似“政冷经热”的状态；

其二，在“其一”的基础上，所谓“政冷”更多指的是传统安全层面的格局没有出现本质变化。与之相对，“经热”更多指的是非传统安全层面美俄之间与中欧之间的慢慢靠近。甚至我们用非传统安全层面“原有格局正重新洗牌”来形容也不为过；

其三，在“其一”“其二”的基础上，这种“重新洗牌”的背景是特朗普政府在战略上推行“远交近攻，合纵连横”，并在全球范围内“无差别”挥舞关税大棒（所谓“无差别”就是不分敌我，至少表面上看是这样）。根源仍在于美国内部日益加深的恶斗不断。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Thursday, April 4, 2025, Issue No. 1218

The overall pattern of the current international situation has presented the following new characteristics

[Media Coverage]

On April 2, at a press conference in the White House Rose Garden, Trump stated that the United States will impose a minimum of 10% tariffs on all goods exported to the United States and will impose higher rates on countries with the most severe trade imbalances. Among them, China will face a 34% tariff, the European Union will face a 20% tariff, and Vietnam will be subjected to a high tariff of up to 46%. The Trump administration also announced that Canada and Mexico will not be included in this tariff adjustment for the time being. They are not only exempt from the 10% base tariff but will also not be included in the reciprocal tariff plan targeting specific countries. However, this exemption is only a temporary measure, and the 10% tariff will take effect after the 25% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on Canada and Mexico is canceled or suspended.

【Discussion Summary】

● The Taiwan issue involves the legitimacy of the United Nations' existence and legal system.

We note that on April 1, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, accepted an exclusive interview with a well-known Russian media group during his official visit to Russia at the invitation of the Russian side.

Wang Yi emphasized that this year is also the 80th anniversary of Taiwan's recovery. Taking this opportunity, I would like to stress that Taiwan's return to China is an important part of the fruits of victory in World War II and the post-war international order. In 1943, China, the United States, and the United Kingdom issued the Cairo Declaration, which clearly stipulated that Japan's stolen Taiwan should be returned to China. In 1945, China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union issued the Potsdam Proclamation, reiterating that "the conditions of the Cairo Declaration shall be implemented." On August 15 of the same year, Japan accepted the Potsdam Proclamation and surrendered unconditionally, and then signed the instrument of surrender, promising to "faithfully fulfill the obligations of the Potsdam Proclamation." A series of internationally legally binding documents have confirmed China's sovereignty over Taiwan and laid the cornerstone of the post-war international order. The historical and legal fact that Taiwan is part of China's territory is beyond doubt, and the identity of Taiwan compatriots as Chinese people should not be suppressed. Regardless of the situation on the island of Taiwan, the historical trend that China will eventually be reunified is unstoppable.

In our observation and assessment, Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Russia at the invitation of the Russian side is intended to encourage Russia to demand as much as possible from Trump on the one hand, and on the other hand, to inject "variables" into the gradually forming "two mahjong tables" around the Middle East issue and the Ukraine issue.

The United Nations is a concrete manifestation of the fruits of World War II. What is the current state of the United Nations? The current state of the United Nations is that the United States is wantonly destroying the UN Charter, threatening to withdraw from the United Nations, and even seeking to replace it alone. From the content emphasized by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, it is not difficult to see that the Taiwan issue involves the legitimacy of the United Nations' existence and legal system. Previously, Oriental Time Interpretation mentioned the global version of the "Respect the King and Expel the Barbarians" issue. Compared to China's Spring and Autumn period, today's "King" is the UN Charter, today's China is equivalent to the State of Qi, and the United States is equivalent to the State of Chu. Foreign Minister Wang Yi's emphasis during his visit to Russia that Taiwan's return to China is an important part of the fruits of victory in World War II and the post-war international order also implies to the European Union whether they should accept the US temptation to intervene in the "Taiwan issue."

Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's initial grandiose promotion of the "vertical and horizontal alliance, making distant friends and attacking nearby enemies" strategy, its renewed mention of the "Taiwan issue" has a sinister intent, namely, to lure Russia and the European Union into intervening in the "Taiwan issue" and to bargain with China using the "Taiwan issue" as a chip.

● The biggest characteristic of the exercise is that it can be immediately converted from an exercise to actual combat. To describe it more vividly, it is like "the finger is already on the trigger, just waiting for the 'fire' command."

To better discuss this issue, let's take a look at two more news reports.

On April 2, Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, stated that on April 2, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command organized the "Strait Thunder-2025A" exercise in the central and southern waters of the Taiwan Strait, focusing on implementing verification, identification, warning, expulsion, interception, and seizure subjects, testing the capabilities of regional control, joint containment, and precision strikes.

On April 2, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jia Kun presided over a regular press conference.

A reporter asked: According to reports, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and others have commented on the joint exercise conducted by the Chinese People's Liberation Army around Taiwan Island on April 1, claiming to oppose unilateral changes to the status quo by force or coercion, and accusing China of "irresponsible threats and military pressure" around Taiwan Island without justification. What is China's comment on this?

Guo Jia Kun: The accusations made by a few countries and organizations against China ignore the facts, turn black into white, and interfere in China's internal affairs. China strongly disapproves and firmly opposes this. The Taiwan issue is purely an internal affair of China and should not be interfered with by external forces. It is the "Taiwan independence" separatist activities and the connivance and support of external forces that undermine the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait. If the relevant countries and organizations truly wish for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, they should conform to the trend of the international community's adherence to the one-China principle, abide by their political commitments to China, respect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and oppose any form of "Taiwan independence."

Interestingly, in the face of this "lightning strike" against Taiwan, the "Taiwan independence" rebels and the US-Japan military alliance had no reaction "immediately," or rather, they had no grasp of such a sudden situation. This is probably the main reason why this joint exercise was named "Strait Thunder-2025A," intended to demonstrate its swiftness and unexpectedness!

If the previous "Combined Sword" series of military exercises announced "ready to take Taiwan," then the launch of the "Strait Thunder" series of military exercises is, in a sense, "beginning to take Taiwan," carrying a strong sense of a "final ultimatum." The biggest characteristic of the exercise is that it can be immediately converted from an exercise to actual combat. To describe it more vividly, it is like "the finger is already on the trigger, just waiting for the 'fire' command."

● Although the EU and Japan have followed the United States in making remarks on the "Taiwan issue," they each have their own ulterior motives. As expected, Russia has not dared to act rashly.

Additionally, it is worth noting that the EU has picked up the "ball" thrown by the Trump administration on the "Taiwan issue." This is of a "waiting nature" for us. Interested netizens can log on to the Oriental website to read the "Core Summary" of Issue 1207 dated March 22 or replay the audio content of that day. It contains the following description:

......

The Trump administration's maneuvering on the "Taiwan issue" also has a sinister intention, which is to "set the pace" in hopes of luring Europe and Russia into participating.

In our observation and assessment, on the "Taiwan issue," Russia may have the inclination but not the courage, while the EU might respond to the United States. For Trump, the EU's participation is conducive to preventing further rapprochement between China and Europe. For the EU, it also wants to use this as a bargaining chip to negotiate with China, emphasizing that "the EU is 'valuable'." The reason is simple: some EU leaders, such as Macron, have previously announced plans to visit China in 2025. The principle is similar to the "each taking what they need" in the aftermath of the arrest of former Philippine President Duterte, where Europe and America cooperated.

......

Through the above review, the previous assessment by Oriental Time Interpretation regarding the true intentions of the Trump administration's handling of the "Taiwan issue" has been further verified. It is worth emphasizing that although the EU has "picked up the ball," it only dared to speak out after the conclusion of the "Strait Thunder-2025A" joint exercise. That is to say, when they saw the official announcement of the exercise code name—"Strait Thunder-2025A" with that "A"—they finally breathed a sigh of relief—despite the turbulent situation in the Taiwan Strait, the situation is still "just one step away" from a showdown. This is the main reason why the EU dares to "pick up the ball." The signal sent by the EU is clear: I have picked up the "ball" passed by the Americans and will use it as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China.

As for why Japan also followed Europe and America in jumping out, on one hand, it is due to pressure from the United States; on the other hand, don't forget that Japan's far-right regime has been engaging in a "last strategic gamble." Coupled with Japan's severe economic dependence on China (including the passive situation of Japan's far-right government following the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge incident), as well as the long-term close military deterrence by China, Japan's far-right, which has almost no cards in hand, also wants to find leverage in the "Taiwan issue." It is worth mentioning that because the United States and China are preparing to talk about the "South China Sea issue," and the United States is likely to make concessions to China, the far-right in Japan is tactfully avoiding touching this sensitive topic.

Russia's performance also conforms to the preliminary assessment in the above review. It has not dared to act rashly on the "Taiwan issue." By analogy, Russia probably would not dare to act rashly on issues related to Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong at this moment. Therefore, on the issue of "breaking the deadlock in South Asia," the Trump administration is likely to be disappointed again. Judging from Russia's performance, at most, it may only reach the level of "thawing." This is an "F" for the Trump administration, which has been in office for more than two months and has not even managed to "thaw" the process of "breaking the deadlock in South Asia"!

● Currently, the overall pattern of the international situation has presented the following new characteristics:

For China, how should we objectively view the phenomenon of the EU following the United States on the "Taiwan issue"? In our view:

First, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has not undergone any fundamental changes;

Second, on the basis of the first point, the latest changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait are generally a response to the further provocations of the "Taiwan independence" authorities;

Third, on the basis of the second point, through the details of the "Strait Thunder-2025A" joint exercise and the specific response of the "Taiwan independence" rebels, China has gained in the issue of unifying Taiwan at any time, especially in the military unification of Taiwan. This also shows that although Europe and Japan follow the United States on the "Taiwan issue," their assessment of the United States' influence on the "Taiwan issue" is "continuously decreasing," not to mention that Europe and Japan each have their own ulterior motives. This is reflected in their attitude on the "Taiwan issue," which basically "remains the same," which is probably a "temperature difference" from what the Trump administration expects of them on the "Taiwan issue";

Fourth, on the basis of the third point, this "temperature difference" is mainly reflected in the fact that although Russia and the United States have "continuous interactions" on the non-traditional security level, the EU is also slowly moving closer to China on the non-traditional security level, especially against the backdrop of Trump's crazy waving of the tariff stick;

Fifth, although overall China has both gains and losses, a closer examination of the details reveals that China has more gains than losses.

Finally, it should be added that the overall pattern of the current international situation has presented the following new characteristics:

First, between the United States and Russia, and between China and Europe, there is a state similar to "cold politics and hot economy";

Second, on the basis of the first point, the so-called "cold politics" more refers to the fact that the pattern on the traditional security level has not undergone any fundamental changes. In contrast, "hot economy" more refers to the slow approach between the United States and Russia and between China and Europe on the non-traditional security level. It is even appropriate to describe it as "the original pattern is being reshuffled" on the non-traditional security level;

Third, on the basis of the first and second points, the background of this "reshuffling" is that the Trump administration is strategically pursuing "befriend distant states and attack nearby ones, forming alliances and blocs," and is "indiscriminately" waving the tariff stick on a global scale (the so-called "indiscriminate" means not distinguishing between friends and foes, at least on the surface). The root cause still lies in the increasingly deepening internal strife in the United States.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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