2025年3月20日，星期四，第1207期

杜特尔特的消息不断放出的背后，有着欧美基于各自利益考量的小心思？

【媒体报道】

3月18日，菲律宾前总统发言人哈里·罗克在网络新闻发布会上证实，日前被海牙国际刑事法院（ICC）拘留的菲律宾前总统罗德里格·杜特尔特由于病情突然加重，已正式被移送到ICC拘留设施的诊所内进行病情监测。

【讨论纪要】

●美国前财长保尔森访华似乎并不顺利

3月17日，“台独”叛乱武装举行为期5天的“立即备战”操演，“台独”叛乱武装头子顾立雄叫嚣，此举针对解放军的“扰台行动”。就在军演首日，解放军先后出动了包括“歼-10”“空警-500”在内的54架各类型战机，在台岛北部、西南、中部、东部空域飞行，配合解放军军舰执行战备警巡任务，其中42架战机越过所谓“海峡中线”。

实际上，近期，解放军举行了多次对台军事演习，只是没有进行大范围公开报道。这首先意味着中国就特朗普政府抛出的所谓“交易台湾”话题，压根儿就不予理睬！此外，从3月17日，中国对外联络部副部长马辉率团已经抵达巴拿马进行访问，以及特朗普政府欲通过彰显美军控制全球关键海峡、运河和航运之能力，妄图以此为手段讹诈他国，打造新型反华同盟等中美双方的激烈博弈情况综合观察，美前财长保尔森访华并不顺利。

此外，从美国内部恶斗进一步激烈，尤其是特朗普宣布废除拜登特赦令、取消拜登成年子女特勤保护，以及公开涉及肯尼迪遇刺案8万页未删减文件综合观察，也可以侧面观察美前财长保尔森访华结果如何。

●欧盟在乌克兰问题上的利益被特朗普政府进一步牺牲，将是大概率上要发生的事情

在继续展开讨论前，再来看一则新闻报道。

3月20日，美国能源部长表示，如果政治层面做出了决定，由美国主导乌克兰一座核电站的运营“几乎不会有什么问题”。“我们会从美国请来高端核专家，一起做出明智的决定，美国在这一领域拥有丰富的专业知识。”

美国能源部长口中要主导的乌克兰的这座核电站，大概率是扎波罗热核电站。在我们看来，尽管原则上俄罗斯不会同意，但出于眼下的核安全考量，不排除俄罗斯同意美方建议的可能性。也就是说，虽然俄罗斯没有立刻应允，但这件事儿还有得谈。这意味着俄美双方的确在乌克兰问题上聊出了一些进展，就是那份“临时不全面停火协议”。

之所以这一协议被我们调侃“临时不全面停火协议”，是因为该协议仅包括30天内不攻击对方能源基础设施目标这一项主要内容，而战场上该怎么打还是怎么打。且随时可能因各种变数变为一张“废纸”。

在美前财长保尔森访华基本以失败告终的背景下，特朗普政府不得不在“时间因素”的重压下，基于“内斗之需”，对内表现出准备“摊牌”之势，对外则阶段性缓和与俄关系并抛出上述“临时不全面停火协议”。而这一切又因特朗普政府执政两个月以来始终未能有效处理对华关系而起。不难想象的是，俄美双方的确在乌克兰问题上聊出了一些进展的背景下，在特朗普政府大概率向俄罗斯做进一步妥协、让步的情况下，恐怕欧盟在乌克兰问题上的利益被特朗普政府进一步牺牲，将是大概率上要发生的事情。

特朗普政府在美国乃至整个西方当下的敌人——俄罗斯与美国最大的传统盟友——欧盟之间，居然选择了前者。这让一众欧洲国家十分“破防”。俄罗斯更是抓住时机对欧盟好一顿揶揄——俄罗斯联邦安全委员会副主席梅德韦杰夫一脸兴奋地表示，只有美国和俄罗斯在“餐厅里”。对此，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，自己绝对不是“一道菜”。而俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃则讽刺道，泽连斯基政权的确不是，因为你连“菜渣”都不如。

有英国媒体更是直白地表示，对欧洲人来说，由于担心跨大西洋联盟的日子可能屈指可数，因此引出一个不可回避的问题。为弥补美国的不可靠，他们是否应尝试与中国建立更好的关系。尽管双方在地缘政治和贸易问题上存在深刻分歧。

欧洲应该向中国靠拢吗？这显然是目前欧盟政要集中“烧脑”要搞清楚的一件事，但对于特朗普政府来说，以此作为寻求下一步应该如何行事“行棋步调”的“抓手”，让自己过度紧绷的神经缓一缓还是有必要的。

●对于杜特尔特的消息放出，美欧都持默许态度，但在这背后或有着欧美基于各自利益考量的小心思

为了进一步展开讨论，再来看一则新闻报道。

3月19日，以色列军方发表声明说，过去一天，以军已在加沙地带中部和南部开展“有针对性的地面行动”，扩大了对连接加沙地带北部和南部的内察里姆走廊的控制。以军同时决定将精锐部队戈兰尼步兵旅部署在南方司令部辖区，并随时准备在加沙地带开展行动。

尽管以色列暂时没有进一步在黎巴嫩撒野，但是，如果接下来欧盟对以色列在巴勒斯坦加沙地带和约旦河西岸的倒行逆施没有任何反应，在俄美关系继续缓和，中美关系仍未能有效处理的情况下，欧美关系恐怕将会走向更加复杂与微妙。

我们注意到近期有关菲律宾前总统杜特尔特的消息被密集放出，包括病重、缺医少药等细节。显然，对于杜特尔特的消息放出，美欧都持默许态度，但在这背后或有着欧美基于各自利益考量的小心思：

一方面，有关杜特尔特的消息不断放出，欧盟以此对中国发出信号，欧盟正在靠向中国；另一方面，欧盟的心思美国自然看在眼里，但出于乌克兰问题上要进一步缓和俄美关系，中东问题上又必须支持内塔尼亚胡小集团，于是只能选择继续牺牲欧美关系。既然欧盟已经对中国发出“我靠过来了”的信号，不排除美国会“抢先一步”的可能性，比如，公开反对国际刑事法院对杜特尔特的逮捕和审判，当然，美国目前也在用有关杜特尔特消息不断被放出来对中国示好。

正所谓“春江水暖鸭先知”，当杜特尔特的消息被一个接一个传回菲律宾国内后，菲律宾内政部长和小马斯克的亲姐姐纷纷采取行动与小马克斯划清界限。包括小马克斯本人在内，他们似乎已经意识到了，自己随时可能被特朗普政府出卖。

●谁着急，谁知道！

特朗普政府在如何有效处理好对华、对欧和对俄关系的问题上的麻烦还远未结束，在欧美通过杜特尔特被捕一事的后续发展分别向中国发出基于各自利益诉求的信号后，小马克斯政府恐怕正在“烧脑”如何面对自己被出卖的情况。

对俄罗斯来说，尽管签了那个“聊胜于无”的协议，接下来又应如何尽快从特朗普政府手中淘换到自己急需的利益，比如，有效重返叙利亚。

对美国来说，在保尔森访华基本以失败告终的背景下，特朗普也许已经痛苦地认识到，面对中国的原则立场毫不动摇，美国必须让步。既然如此，不妨仔细想想如何谈中国感兴趣，而非美国感兴趣的话题吧。

对中国来说，并不着急，美国人什么时候想明白了再说，在此之前，关于菲律宾前总统杜特尔特被捕一事的后续发展，我们只是想提醒特朗普政府，其一，此事后续发展正如火如荼；其二，中国仅仅关心杜特尔特先生的身体情况；其三，谁着急，谁知道！

●再次强调，特朗普政府面对的是一个“死局”

对欧盟来说，在乌克兰问题上吃的亏，怕是要在中东问题上找补回来。

面对胡塞武装打击以色列国际机场一事，特朗普真的很头疼，因为内塔尼亚胡的电话刚刚打过，电话的另一端，内塔尼亚胡在高声质问特朗普：美国的航母在哪里？！

美国的航母在哪里呢？虽然美国名义上有11艘航母，但问题在于，现在能够执行军事任务的只有4艘，其余的不是在大修，就是在准备大修的漫长排队等待中。而这4艘航母中的3艘，被中国死死地牵制在西太方向不敢动弹分毫（全在中国的监视之下，更闹出了中国绕澳巡航美国一声不吭。即便拉上整个北约也是如此。法国航母就闹出了被055大驱堵在巽他海峡不得不在新加坡樟宜海军基地蹲坑等候的大笑话）。

最后剩余的1艘航母，也就是“杜鲁门号”航母在中东地区。

然而，就是这样硕果仅存的1艘航母，还被胡塞武装拿“拖鞋”打得满地找牙。而美国明知道胡塞武装背后有“高人指点”，但，其一，没有确凿的证据；其二，就算有确凿的证据空啊也不敢说！不仅不敢说，而且还得为此洗地（卡扎菲当初放弃核武，投靠美国，结果对于利比亚核武从何而来一事，五常中有四个为其洗地，核心在于要维持核不扩散条约）。

否则，岂不是自证刚刚抛出的“美军有能力控制全球关键海峡、运河、港口和航线”战略学说就是扯淡？说句不好听的，就算美国准备从西太抽调航母驰援中东，恐怕也要等到中美关系有效缓和之后再说！

面对美国这样一副战略窘境，尤其是美国航母被“拖鞋”打得草木皆兵的场景，欧盟恐怕在心中早已呐喊出一句：痛快！而在特朗普政府看来，如果在中东问题上欧盟真的铁了心要给美国“找麻烦”，那么那份刚刚签署的在乌克兰问题上的“临时停火协议”的“保质期”恐怕就很短了。至少俄罗斯有理由认为这样的一个美国，必须对其加码、加码，再加码！否则真的对不起这天赐良机！

在中国眼中，将美俄关系，美欧关系搞得这样被动的特朗普政府拿什么和中国讨价还价？反过来，如果对华关系仍不能有效处理，对内，恶斗必然日甚一日；对外，俄罗斯的要求就会越来越高，欧盟就会闹得越来越凶。这，是一个“死局”。

最后需要补充的是，3月19日，美国总统特朗普表示，也门胡塞武装将被“彻底消灭”，并敦促伊朗立即停止向该组织提供支持。

对此，我们不想多说什么，只是提出一系列问题供大家思考：

难道特朗普政府打算动用核武器对付胡塞武装吗？或者是，即便动用了核武器能彻底解决胡塞武装吗？更或者是，如果美国使用了核武器，那么乌克兰问题对俄罗斯还是问题吗？如果说动核这一招不能使用，只能使用常规手段，那么美国接下来，是打算大规模出兵也门呢，还是对伊朗直接进行军事打击呢？问题在于，如果是这样，美军岂不就这样被彻底拖下水了？

Thursday, March 20, 2025, Issue No. 1207

Behind the continuous release of news about Duterte, are there some ulterior motives based on the respective interests of Europe and the United States?

[Media Coverage]

On March 18th, Harry Roque, the former spokesman of the Philippine president, confirmed at an online press conference that Rodrigo Duterte, the former president of the Philippines who had been detained by the International Criminal Court (ICC) recently, had been officially transferred to the clinic within the ICC detention facility for disease monitoring due to a sudden aggravation of his illness.

【Discussion Summary】

● The visit of former US Treasury Secretary Paulson to China doesn't seem to go smoothly.

On March 17th, the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces held a five-day "immediate combat readiness" drill. The leader of the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces, Gu Li-xiong, boasted that this move was targeted at the PLA's "actions to disrupt Taiwan". On the first day of the drill, the PLA successively dispatched 54 aircraft of various types, including J-10 and KJ-500, flying in the airspace over the northern, southwestern, central and eastern parts of Taiwan Island, carrying out combat readiness patrol missions in coordination with PLA warships. Among them, 42 aircraft crossed the so-called "median line of the Taiwan Strait".

In fact, recently, the PLA has carried out multiple military exercises targeting Taiwan, but there has been no extensive public reporting. This first of all means that China simply ignores the so-called topic of "trading Taiwan" thrown out by the Trump administration! In addition, from March 17th, Ma Hui, the vice minister of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee, led a delegation to visit Panama, and the Trump administration attempts to blackmail other countries by showing the ability of the US military to control key straits, canals and shipping routes around the world, with the attempt to form a new anti-China alliance and other intense interactions between China and the United States, it can be seen that the visit of the former US Treasury Secretary Paulson to China is not going smoothly.

In addition, from the further intensification of the internal strife in the United States, especially when Trump announced the repeal of Biden's pardon order, the cancellation of the special security protection for Biden's adult children, and the public release of 80,000 pages of unredacted files related to the Kennedy assassination case, we can also indirectly observe the result of the visit of the former US Treasury Secretary Paulson to China.

● It is highly likely that the interests of the European Union in the Ukraine issue will be further sacrificed by the Trump administration.

Before continuing the discussion, let's take a look at another news report.

On March 20th, the US Energy Secretary said that if a political decision was made, it would "pose hardly any problem" for the United States to lead the operation of a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. "We will invite high-end nuclear experts from the United States to make wise decisions together. The United States has extensive professional knowledge in this field."

The nuclear power plant in Ukraine that the US Energy Secretary mentioned is most likely the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. In our view, although Russia will not agree in principle, given the current nuclear safety concerns, it cannot be ruled out that Russia may agree to the US suggestion. That is to say, although Russia has not immediately agreed, there is still room for negotiation. This means that the United States and Russia have indeed made some progress in the Ukraine issue, which is the "temporary and incomplete ceasefire agreement".

The reason why this agreement is dubbed by us as the "temporary and incomplete ceasefire agreement" is that it mainly includes only one key content, namely, not attacking each other's energy infrastructure targets within 30 days, while the fighting on the battlefield will continue as usual. And it may become a "worthless piece of paper" at any time due to various variables.

Against the backdrop of the visit of the former US Treasury Secretary Paulson to China ending in failure, under the pressure of the "time factor" and based on the "need for internal strife", the Trump administration has shown a tendency to "lay all the cards on the table" domestically, while temporarily easing relations with Russia externally and putting forward the above-mentioned "temporary and incomplete ceasefire agreement". All this is due to the fact that the Trump administration has failed to effectively handle relations with China in the two months since it took office. It is not difficult to imagine that against the backdrop of some progress made by the United States and Russia in the Ukraine issue and the high likelihood that the Trump administration will make further concessions to Russia, it is highly likely that the interests of the European Union in the Ukraine issue will be further sacrificed by the Trump administration.

The Trump administration has chosen Russia, the current enemy of the United States and the entire Western world, over the European Union, the largest traditional ally of the United States. This has left a number of European countries feeling extremely "frustrated". Russia has seized the opportunity to take a jab at the European Union. Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Russian Security Council, said excitedly that only the United States and Russia are in the "restaurant". In response, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he is definitely not a "dish". Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova then sarcastically remarked that the Zelensky regime is indeed not, because it is not even as good as "leftovers".

Some UK media have even bluntly stated that for Europeans, worried that the days of the transatlantic alliance may be numbered, an unavoidable question arises. To make up for the unreliability of the United States, should they try to build better relations with China? Despite profound differences between the two sides on geopolitical and trade issues.

Should Europe move closer to China? This is obviously something that EU politicians are currently concentrating on trying to figure out. But for the Trump administration, using this as a "lever" to seek guidance on what to do next and to relieve its overly tense nerves is still necessary.

● Regarding the continuous release of news about Duterte, both the United States and Europe have taken a tacit attitude. However, behind this, there may be some ulterior motives of the United States and Europe based on their respective interests.

To further expand the discussion, let's take a look at another news report.

On March 19th, the Israeli military issued a statement saying that in the past day, the Israeli military has carried out "targeted ground operations" in the central and southern parts of the Gaza Strip, expanding its control over the Nitzanim Corridor that connects the northern and southern parts of the Gaza Strip. At the same time, the Israeli military has decided to deploy the elite Golani Infantry Brigade to the jurisdiction of the Southern Command and is ready to take action in the Gaza Strip at any time.

Although Israel has not further acted recklessly in Lebanon for the time being, if the European Union has no reaction to Israel's outrageous actions in the Gaza Strip of Palestine and the West Bank of Jordan in the following days, and with the continued easing of Russia-US relations and the still ineffective handling of China-US relations, the relationship between Europe and the United States is likely to become more complex and delicate.

We have noticed that recently there has been a concentrated release of news about the former President of the Philippines, Duterte, including details such as his serious illness and lack of medical supplies. Obviously, both the United States and Europe have taken a tacit attitude towards the continuous release of news about Duterte. However, behind this, there may be some ulterior motives of the United States and Europe based on their respective interests:

On the one hand, with the continuous release of news about Duterte, the European Union is sending a signal to China that the EU is moving closer to China. On the other hand, the United States can naturally see what the EU is up to. However, due to the need to further ease Russia-US relations on the Ukraine issue and support Netanyahu's faction on the Middle East issue, the United States has to choose to continue sacrificing the relationship between Europe and the United States. Since the EU has sent a signal to China that "I'm coming closer", it is not excluded that the United States may "take the lead", such as publicly opposing the International Criminal Court's arrest and trial of Duterte. Of course, the United States is currently also using the continuous release of news about Duterte to show goodwill to China.

As the saying goes, "A duck knows first when the river gets warmer." After the news about Duterte was relayed back to the Philippines one after another, the Philippine Interior Minister and the elder sister of Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. have taken actions to distance themselves from Marcos Jr. Including Marcos Jr. himself, they seem to have realized that they may be sold out by the Trump administration at any time.

● Whoever is anxious will know!

The Trump administration's troubles in effectively handling relations with China, Europe, and Russia are far from over. After Europe and the United States sent signals to China based on their respective interests following the aftermath of Duterte's arrest, the Marcos Jr. government is probably struggling to figure out how to deal with the situation of being sold out.

For Russia, although it signed that "barely satisfactory" agreement, it still needs to figure out how to quickly obtain the urgently needed interests from the Trump administration, such as effectively returning to Syria.

For the United States, against the backdrop of Paulson's visit to China ending in failure, Trump may have painfully realized that in the face of China's unwavering principled stance, the United States must make concessions. If so, it might as well carefully consider how to discuss topics that interest China rather than those that interest the United States.

For China, we are not in a hurry. Let's wait and see when the Americans figure it out. Before that, regarding the aftermath of the arrest of former Philippine President Duterte, we just want to remind the Trump administration of three things: First, the aftermath is in full swing; second, China only cares about Mr. Duterte's health condition; third, whoever is anxious will know!

● Once again, the Trump administration is facing a "dead end"

For the European Union, the losses suffered in the Ukraine issue are likely to be compensated for in the Middle East issue.

Facing the Houthi armed group's attack on Israel's international airport, Trump is really troubled. Because Netanyahu's call just came in, and on the other end of the phone, Netanyahu was shouting at Trump: Where is the US aircraft carrier?!

Where is the US aircraft carrier? Although the United States nominally has 11 aircraft carriers, the problem is that only 4 of them can currently carry out military tasks. The rest are either undergoing major repairs or waiting in a long queue for major repairs. Among these 4 aircraft carriers, 3 are tightly restrained by China in the Western Pacific direction and dare not move an inch (all under China's surveillance. There was even an incident where a Chinese warship circled around Australia, and the United States didn't say a word. Even when the entire NATO was involved, it was the same. The French aircraft carrier got stuck in the Sunda Strait by the 055 destroyer and had to wait in Singapore's Changi Naval Base. It was a big joke).

The last remaining aircraft carrier, the "USS Truman", is in the Middle East.

However, even this sole remaining aircraft carrier was beaten up badly by the Houthi armed group with "slippers". The United States knows that there is "higher guidance" behind the Houthi armed group, but first, there is no conclusive evidence; second, even if there is conclusive evidence, it dare not say it! Not only dare it not say it, but it also has to cover it up (when Gaddafi gave up nuclear weapons and sided with the United States, four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council covered up where Libya's nuclear weapons came from. The core is to maintain the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons).

Otherwise, wouldn't it be self-defeating to prove that the strategic doctrine that "the US military has the ability to control key straits, canals, ports, and routes around the world" just put forward is nonsense? To put it bluntly, even if the United States is prepared to recall aircraft carriers from the Western Pacific to support the Middle East, it probably has to wait until the China-US relationship has effectively eased!

Facing such a strategic predicament of the United States, especially the scene where the US aircraft carrier was scared by "slippers", the European Union probably has already shouted in their hearts: So satisfying! In the eyes of the Trump administration, if the European Union really decides to "cause trouble" for the United States on the Middle East issue, then the "shelf life" of the just-signed "temporary ceasefire agreement" on the Ukraine issue is probably very short. At least Russia has reason to believe that such a United States must be pressured more and more! Otherwise, it really doesn't live up to this golden opportunity!

In China's eyes, what bargaining chips does the Trump administration, which has made the US-Russia and US-EU relationships so passive, have to negotiate with China? On the contrary, if the relationship with China still cannot be effectively handled, domestically, the infighting will surely become more and more intense; externally, Russia's demands will get higher and higher, and the European Union will make more and more trouble. This is a "dead end".

Finally, it should be added that on March 19th, US President Trump said that the Houthi armed group in Yemen will be "completely eliminated" and urged Iran to immediately stop supporting the organization.

Regarding this, we don't want to say much, but we just raise a series of questions for everyone to think about:

Does the Trump administration plan to use nuclear weapons against the Houthi armed group? Or, even if nuclear weapons are used, can the Houthi armed group be completely resolved? Or, if the United States uses nuclear weapons, will the Ukraine issue still be a problem for Russia? If using nuclear weapons is not an option and only conventional means can be used, then does the United States plan to send troops to Yemen on a large scale next, or directly launch military strikes against Iran? The problem is that if so, won't the US military be completely dragged into it?

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