https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R2sZufFqvPEOeYZI-z0QfQ
2025年3月19日，星期三，第1206期 结合肯尼迪遇刺案8万页未删节文件公布来观察，特朗普及“特朗普们”或已准备“对内摊牌” 【媒体报道】 3月18日，美国国家档案馆公布了与前总统肯尼迪遇刺案相关的8万页未删节文件。美国总统特朗普在此前一天表示，美国政府将“不会提供这批文件的摘要”，读者将“自行作出判断”。美国第35任总统肯尼迪于1963年11月在达拉斯遇刺身亡。多年来，该案件仍然迷雾重重，引发多方猜测。 【讨论纪要】 ●美帝通过控制全球关键海峡、运河和航线，以组建新型反华联盟的险恶图谋注定失败 3月17日，美国总统特朗普明确将也门胡塞武装的行动与该组织的主要捐助者伊朗联系起来，并警告德黑兰将为该组织的进一步袭击“承担后果”。 论实力，伊朗比胡塞武装要强的多。论地缘，伊朗扼守的霍尔木兹海峡同样是世界上最繁忙的海峡之一，更与世界经济是否能够稳定运行密切相关。然而，由于伊朗决策层连续多次出现重大战略误判，导致伊朗战略损失惨重，尤其是经营多年的“什叶派抵抗之弧”在叙利亚阿萨德政权被颠覆后土崩瓦解。伊朗的国家信誉和影响力在中东地区，伊斯兰世界乃至全球将至“冰点”，以至于方方面面对胡塞武装的关注度都超过了伊朗。 讽刺的是，“投降主义路线”也好，在“投降路线”和“强硬路线”之间反复摇摆也罢，并未让伊朗的外在安全环境得到本质改观。反而越来越明确、尖锐暴露出以最高精神领袖哈梅内伊和伊朗当局最高行政领导人佩泽希齐杨为代表的伊朗内部矛盾。 现在，特朗普政府已将恐吓目标转向伊朗，这是自叙利亚阿萨德政权被颠覆后，对伊朗决策层的决策能力和智慧的又一次严峻考验。用中国民间谚语来形容伊朗目前的状态就是：越怕事儿，越来事儿。 值得注意的是，对于目前胡塞武装针对美、以的反击，欧盟、俄罗斯都未表态，以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家和一些主要中东国家也没有态度。如果胡塞武装最终能够经受国际社会的考验，证明自己的确是“天才少年”，未来中东地区，乃至世界范围内的穆斯林什叶派的“大旗”恐怕就要由胡塞武装来扛了。 值得一提的是，如果这次伊朗当局不再妥协，无论是扼守红海的胡塞武装，还是扼守波斯湾的伊朗，就都成为美帝通过控制全球关键海峡、运河和航线之险恶意图的反例。也就是说，仅在中东地区，就至少有两处重要的航线要路不在美帝的“绝对掌握”之中，何况全球范围？也许真的到了“互相切断海上贸易航线”的那一天，尽管面对中国“绝对控制南海”，同属亚洲经济圈的日本和韩国仍有机会加入中国“最低经济内循环”之“循环升级”，但作为亚洲经济圈之外的美国可否有能力玩出自己的“最低经济内循环”？无论是因为实体产业高度空心化也好，海上主要贸易航线，尤其是通往亚洲经济圈的海上贸易航线被切断也罢，如果最终导致美国没有能力玩出自己的“最低经济内循环”，那么，大量印出来的美钞和废纸又有何不同？ 此外，美国不惜破坏全球主要贸易的倒行逆施也必然会激起目前阶段仍以传统化石能源出口为主要营生的中东国家的强烈反对，就算他们不直接对美国如何如何，难道他们还不能找以色列的麻烦吗？所以，仅从这几点看，美帝通过控制全球关键海峡、运河和航线，以组建新型反华联盟的险恶图谋注定失败。 有消息称，3月17日，中国对外联络部副部长马辉率团已经抵达巴拿马。中国对外联络部全称中国共产党中央委员会对外联络部，是专职负责中国共产党对外工作的职能部门。由此可见，中国对美帝通过控制全球关键海峡、运河和航线，以组建新型反华联盟的险恶图谋已做做坏准备。 3月18日，外交部发言人毛宁在例行记者会上，就长江和记集团出售在巴拿马业务一事作出回应称，具体情况需向主管部门了解。同时着重强调，中方坚决抵制利用经济胁迫、霸道霸凌手段侵犯损害他国正当权益的行为。显然，特朗普政府想要以此作为博取尽快访华之“机票”的筹码进行讹诈，中国不吃这一套！ ●中美要谈，就朝着实质性落地执行“太平洋足够大，容得下中美两国”这句话的方向谈 在继续展开讨论前，来看一条新闻报道。 3月16日，菲律宾发生大规模游行，声援支持前总统杜特尔特。 针对美帝通过控制全球关键海峡、运河和航线，以组建新型反华联盟的险恶图谋，中方表态非常强硬，言外之意就是：要谈就按中方提出的条件谈，否则特朗普就不要访华。对此，华尔街可谓看在眼中，急在心里。于是也就有了美前财长保尔森紧急访华，力求为美国总统特朗普求得一张尽快访华的“机票”。 在此前我们多次讨论中，就哪些条件是中方感兴趣的与大家做了充分讨论，其中之一就是“南海问题”。说到“南海问题”就不得不聊一聊菲律宾前总统杜特尔特被捕一事的后续发展。 可以说，杜特尔特“以身侍局”让小马克斯政府非常被动。现在，杜特尔特，对小马克斯政府，甚至对美国和欧盟来说，都有那么一点儿“请神容易送神难”的味道。值得一提的是，杜特尔特之前出行的目的地是香港。置于在其出人意料的从香港返回菲律宾的情况了来看，杜特尔特恐怕事先知道了这个游戏的“玩法”，置于是否有人给他“锦囊妙计”我们就不得而知了。 值得注意的是，杜特尔特被捕后，在海牙对菲律宾国内喊话，对此，欧美均持默认态度。美国则借此对中国发出明确信号，准备和中国谈“南海问题”。当然，这是作为“胡萝卜”的一面，而作为“大棒”的一面，美国也在利用菲律宾小马斯克政府目前非常被动、不得不进一步依靠美国维持统治的战略处境，和中国讨价还价，甚至威胁中国。对欧盟来说，之所以对杜特尔特对其国内喊话同样持默许态度，在于，基于和美国在杜特尔特被捕一事之“各取所取”层面，变相对中国发出信号：如果美国不得不和中国谈“南海问题”，中国别忘了，这枚“军功章”也有我（欧盟）的一半（为以后和中国打交道捞取筹码）。 如果最后特朗普政府决定出卖小马克斯政府，或可说明特朗普访华一事更接近靠谱一点。谈“菲律宾问题”，中国不会单独和美国闭门谈，而会叫上“杜特尔特们”一起谈（不会绕开菲律宾）。如果是谈“南海问题”，我们不反对和美国单独“喝杯咖啡”，当然，最好是叫上东盟（很多东盟国家涉及“南海问题”）一起。谈的重点很清楚，那就是朝着实质性落地执行“太平洋足够大，容得下中美两国”（基于传统安全层面）这句话的方向谈。顺便一提句的是，美国国务卿卢比奥目前仍遭中方制裁，对此，特朗普政府是不是也要有个说法？毕竟，卢比奥的签证是不好给发的。如果特朗普为开启访华之旅结果美国国务卿卢比奥，对此我们表示欢迎，至少说明特朗普访华的基本态度还算端正。 ●“再不配合，别怪我们翻脸不认人”指的恐怕是这次公开的肯尼迪遇刺案8万页未删节文件之外的内容 在继续展开讨论前，我们再来看一则新闻报道。 3月18日，据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗普宣布，将“立即”终止美国特勤局对拜登成年子女的安全保护。此前，拜登在今年1月卸任美国总统前曾将其子女的特勤保护期限延长至7月。 在我们看来，特朗普的这一举动可以说是对拜登和“拜登们”直接施加压力。这是当前承压越来越重的特朗普和“特朗普们”企图减轻、甚至摆脱这种压力的一次危险尝试。与此同时，美国国家档案馆公布了与前总统肯尼迪遇刺案相关的8万页未删节文件。 如果结合此前特朗普废除美国前总统拜登特赦令的报道一并观察，已经显得很不耐烦的特朗普及“特朗普们”发出的信号非常强烈：不要再玩猫捉老鼠，我们的耐心是有限的。再不配合，别怪我们翻脸不认人！ 在我们的观察与评估中，所谓“再不配合，别怪我们翻脸不认人”，指的恐怕是这次公开的肯尼迪遇刺案8万页未删节文件之外的内容。某种意义上说，特朗普及“特朗普们”或已准备“对内摊牌”。 ●普京也好、俄罗斯也罢，面对今天欧美再玩这种“临时停火”的把戏、是死活不愿意“再简单的上当”了 在本次讨论的最后，应网友提问，简单说一说保尔森访华一事的后续发展，以及这一事件对欧盟，俄罗斯会产生哪些可能的影响。 说起保尔森这个人，是有“前科”的。 当年，在“北京奥运-格鲁吉亚战争”回合，保尔森曾经爆料过一则“秘闻”：当时俄罗斯向中国提出了某种请求，要求中国通过抛售美国国债的方式配合俄罗斯发动格鲁吉亚战争。最终，中国没有答应俄罗斯的这个请求。 不难看出，保尔森的这一说法，其本质是对中俄关系的公开挑拨离间。所以，这次保尔森访华，必然会勾起俄罗斯对17年前这桩往事的某些“不愉快的回忆”。所以，保尔森访华，对俄罗斯是有影响的。 但是，话说回来，毕竟过去了十余年，尽管俄罗斯从未实质性放弃过“阿富汗政策小九九”，但其总归对中俄关系、俄美关系究竟如何有一些基于历史沉淀性认识——就在乌克兰危机爆发3周年之际，在中俄关系再度成为了国际社会关注焦点的背景下，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫在接受采访时就所谓“美国利用俄罗斯来对抗中国的诡计”一事作出回应。 拉夫罗夫表示，当前俄中两国长期友好互信的关系达到前所未有的水平，美国人非常清楚一点，那就是俄方永远不会违背与中方在法律和政治层面达成的承诺。与此形成鲜明对比的是，拉夫罗夫在提及美俄关系时，特意强调像俄罗斯和美国这样的国家，永远不会有相同的国家利益，双方在国家利益上的一致性可能连50%都不到，甚至还会更少。这一表态用词尖锐且直接，让在场的美国记者多少有些难堪。 当然，3月18日，普京和特朗普通电话的本质还是特朗普政府对俄罗斯做出了某种进一步妥协，至少恶俄方可以指望美国对其做出进一步妥协。所以，也就有了那份看似奇奇怪怪的美俄之间签署的“临时不停火协议”。 从近期塞尔维亚承受西方一轮又一轮施压的情况来看，俄罗斯与美国就俄乌30天停火提议提达成临时一致，既是抓住机会尽量从特朗普政府手中淘换自己急需的某些利益，比如，俄方提出一系列重要主张，包括确保对俄乌双方整个接触线上的停火进行有效管控、停止乌境内强制动员和重新武装乌军部队。也是感受到了战略压力，比如，来自南联盟如今仅存的继承者（科索沃战争基于经济层面是冲着欧元去的，想要拿住欧盟解决俄罗斯。俄罗斯要走普京路线，南联盟的解体是俄罗斯的重要地缘损失，中国当然也有损失，体现在大使馆被炸，这引发了之后中国的一系列政策调整。当然，这件事也炸醒了俄罗斯，这才有了叶利钦向普京交权），塞尔维亚方向的压力。
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第7904期-有“明斯克协议”被骗之前车之鉴，尽管俄罗斯仍对西方抱有不切实际的政治幻想，但想让普京轻易相信特朗普的话几乎不可能（2025-3-16） 声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。
Wednesday, March 19, 2025, Issue No. 1206 ### Observing the Release of 80,000 Unredacted Pages on the JFK Assassination, Trump and His Allies May Be Preparing for an "Internal Showdown" [Media Coverage] On March 18, the U.S. National Archives released 80,000 unredacted pages of documents related to the assassination of former President John F. Kennedy. The day before, U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. government would "not provide a summary of these documents," leaving readers to "make their own judgments." The 35th President of the United States, John F. Kennedy, was assassinated in Dallas in November 1963. Over the years, the case has remained shrouded in mystery, sparking widespread speculation. 【Discussion Summary】 ● **The U.S. Plan to Form a New Anti-China Alliance by Controlling Global Key Straits, Canals, and Shipping Routes is Doomed to Fail** On March 17, U.S. President Trump explicitly linked the actions of Yemen's Houthi rebels to their primary donor, Iran, warning Tehran that it would "bear the consequences" for further attacks by the group. In terms of strength, Iran is far more powerful than the Houthis. Geopolitically, the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran controls, is one of the world's busiest straits and is closely tied to the stability of the global economy. However, due to a series of major strategic misjudgments by Iran's decision-makers, the country has suffered significant strategic losses, especially after the collapse of the "Shiite Resistance Arc" following the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran's national credibility and influence in the Middle East, the Islamic world, and globally have plummeted to a "freezing point," leading to a greater focus on the Houthis than on Iran itself. Ironically, whether it is the "surrenderist line" or the repeated vacillation between "surrender" and "hardline" policies, Iran's external security environment has not fundamentally improved. Instead, the increasingly clear and sharp internal contradictions within Iran, represented by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi, have become more exposed. Now, the Trump administration has shifted its intimidation tactics to Iran, posing another severe test of the decision-making capabilities and wisdom of Iran's leadership since the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria. As a Chinese folk saying goes, "The more you fear trouble, the more trouble comes your way." It is worth noting that, regarding the current Houthi attacks against the U.S. and Israel, neither the EU nor Russia has made a statement, and major Middle Eastern countries led by Saudi Arabia have also remained silent. If the Houthis ultimately withstand the test of the international community and prove themselves to be the "genius youth," they may take up the mantle of the Shiite Muslim cause in the Middle East and even globally. Interestingly, if the Iranian regime does not compromise this time, both the Houthis controlling the Red Sea and Iran controlling the Persian Gulf will serve as counterexamples to the U.S. intention of controlling global key straits, canals, and shipping routes. In other words, in the Middle East alone, at least two critical shipping routes are not under the "absolute control" of the U.S., let alone globally. Perhaps when the day comes for "mutually cutting off maritime trade routes," despite China's "absolute control" of the South China Sea, Japan and South Korea, as part of the Asian economic circle, may still have the opportunity to join China's "minimum economic internal cycle" for "cycle upgrading." But as a country outside the Asian economic circle, does the U.S. have the ability to create its own "minimum economic internal cycle"? Whether due to the hollowing out of its real industries or the severing of major maritime trade routes, especially those leading to the Asian economic circle, if the U.S. ultimately cannot sustain its own "minimum economic internal cycle," what difference is there between the U.S. dollar and waste paper? Moreover, the U.S. actions to disrupt global trade will inevitably provoke strong opposition from Middle Eastern countries that still rely on traditional fossil fuel exports. Even if they do not directly confront the U.S., can they not cause trouble for Israel? Therefore, from these points alone, the U.S. plan to form a new anti-China alliance by controlling global key straits, canals, and shipping routes is doomed to fail. It is reported that on March 17, Ma Hui, Deputy Minister of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, led a delegation to Panama. The International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is the functional department specifically responsible for the Party's external work. This shows that China has made preparations for the sinister plot of the United States to control key global straits, canals and shipping routes in an attempt to form a new anti-China alliance. On March 18, at the regular press conference, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to the matter of the sale of the Panama business by Yangtze River Hutchison Group. She said that details need to be learned from the competent authorities. At the same time, she emphasized emphatically that China firmly opposes actions that use economic coercion, bullying and hegemony to infringe upon and damage the legitimate rights and interests of other countries. Obviously, the Trump administration wants to use this as a "ticket" to blackmail China into granting an early visit, but China will not fall for this! ● If China and the United States are going to talk, they should aim to substantially implement the principle that "the Pacific Ocean is big enough to accommodate both China and the United States." Before continuing the discussion, let's take a look at a news report. On March 16, a large-scale protest took place in the Philippines in support of former President Duterte. In response to the sinister plot of the United States to control key global straits, canals, and shipping routes in an attempt to form a new anti-China alliance, China has taken a very tough stance, implying that if the two sides are to talk, it should be on China's terms; otherwise, Trump should not expect a visit to China. Wall Street is clearly watching and anxious about this. As a result, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson made an emergency visit to China, trying to secure an earlier "ticket" for President Trump to visit China. In our previous discussions, we thoroughly discussed which conditions China is interested in, one of which is the "South China Sea issue." Speaking of the "South China Sea issue," we cannot avoid discussing the aftermath of the arrest of former Philippine President Duterte. It can be said that Duterte's actions have put the Marcos Jr. government in a very passive position. Now, Duterte has become somewhat of a "difficult guest to send away" for the Marcos Jr. government, and even for the United States and the European Union. It is worth mentioning that Duterte's previous destination was Hong Kong. Considering his unexpected return to the Philippines from Hong Kong, Duterte might have known the "rules of the game" in advance, though whether he had any "secret advice" is unknown. Notably, after Duterte's arrest, he called out to the Philippines from The Hague, to which Europe and the United States have taken a tacit attitude. The United States has used this opportunity to signal to China its readiness to discuss the "South China Sea issue." Of course, this is the "carrot" side of the approach. On the "stick" side, the United States is also using the Marcos Jr. government's current passive situation, which forces it to rely further on the U.S. to maintain its rule, to bargain with China and even threaten it. As for the European Union, its tacit approval of Duterte's call to the Philippines is based on a "quid pro quo" with the United States regarding Duterte's arrest, indirectly signaling to China: if the United States has to talk about the "South China Sea issue" with China, China should not forget that the European Union also deserves a share of the credit (to gain leverage in future dealings with China). If the Trump administration ultimately decides to betray the Marcos Jr. government, it might indicate that a Trump visit to China is becoming more plausible. When discussing the "Philippine issue," China will not engage in closed-door talks with the United States alone but will include "Dutertes" in the conversation (not bypassing the Philippines). If discussing the "South China Sea issue," we are not opposed to having a "coffee chat" with the United States alone, but it would be better to include ASEAN (many ASEAN countries are involved in the "South China Sea issue"). The focus of the discussion is clear: to move towards the substantial implementation of the principle that "the Pacific Ocean is big enough to accommodate both China and the United States" (from a traditional security perspective). Incidentally, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio is still under Chinese sanctions. Shouldn't the Trump administration have something to say about this? After all, it will be difficult to issue a visa for Rubio. If Trump proceeds with his visit to China while Secretary Rubio remains sanctioned, we would welcome this, as it at least indicates that Trump's basic attitude towards the visit is somewhat proper. ● "If you don't cooperate, don't blame us for turning hostile" probably refers to the content beyond the 80,000 unredacted pages of the Kennedy assassination case files that were just made public. Before continuing the discussion, let's take a look at another news report. On March 18, according to U.S. media reports, U.S. President Trump announced that he would "immediately" terminate the Secret Service's security protection for Biden's adult children. Previously, before stepping down as President of the United States in January this year, Biden had extended the Secret Service protection period for his children until July. In our view, Trump's move can be said to be a direct form of pressure on Biden and the "Biden camp." This is a dangerous attempt by Trump and the "Trump camp," who are under increasing pressure, to relieve or even get rid of such pressure. Meanwhile, the U.S. National Archives has released 80,000 unredacted pages of documents related to the assassination of former President Kennedy. If we observe this in conjunction with previous reports of Trump revoking the pardon order of former U.S. President Biden, the already impatient Trump and the "Trump camp" are sending a very strong signal: Stop playing cat and mouse. Our patience is limited. If you don't cooperate, don't blame us for turning hostile! In our observation and assessment, what is meant by "If you don't cooperate, don't blame us for turning hostile" probably refers to the content beyond the 80,000 unredacted pages of the Kennedy assassination case files that were just made public. In a sense, Trump and the "Trump camp" may be preparing to "lay their cards on the table internally." Whether it's Putin or Russia, in the face of the "temporary ceasefire" farce that Europe and the United States are playing today, they simply refuse to be deceived again. At the end of this discussion, in response to a netizen's question, let's briefly talk about the follow-up development of Paulson's visit to China and what possible impacts this incident may have on the EU and Russia. Speaking of Paulson, he has a "record". Back then, during the "Beijing Olympics - Georgia War" phase, Paulson once revealed a so-called "secret": At that time, Russia made a certain request to China, asking China to cooperate with Russia in launching the Georgia War by selling US Treasury bonds. Eventually, China didn't agree to Russia's request. It's obvious that Paulson's statement was essentially a blatant attempt to sow discord in Sino-Russian relations. Therefore, Paulson's visit to China will surely arouse some "unpleasant memories" of Russia about this incident 17 years ago. So, Paulson's visit to China does have an impact on Russia. However, having said that, more than a decade has passed. Although Russia has never substantially given up its "Afghanistan policy tricks", it still has some understanding based on historical precipitation about Sino-Russian relations and Russia-US relations. On the occasion of the 3rd anniversary of the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis and with Sino-Russian relations once again in the spotlight of the international community, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov made a response when interviewed about the so-called "US plot to use Russia to counter China". Lavrov said that the long-term friendly and trusting relationship between Russia and China has reached an unprecedented level. The Americans are very clear about one thing, that is, Russia will never go against the commitments it has reached with China at the legal and political levels. In sharp contrast, when mentioning Russia-US relations, Lavrov specifically emphasized that countries like Russia and the United States will never have the same national interests. The consistency of their national interests may be less than 50%, or even lower. This statement was sharp and direct, making the US journalists present somewhat embarrassed. Of course, the essence of the phone call between Putin and Trump on March 18th was that the Trump administration made some further concessions to Russia. At least Russia can expect the US to make further concessions. Thus, there came the seemingly strange "temporary non-ceasefire agreement" signed between the US and Russia. Judging from the situation where Serbia has been under successive rounds of pressure from the West recently, Russia and the US reaching a temporary agreement on the 30-day ceasefire proposal in Ukraine is both an opportunity to try to bargain for some urgently needed interests from the Trump administration, such as a series of important proposals put forward by Russia, including ensuring effective control over the ceasefire along the entire contact line between Russia and Ukraine, and stopping the forced mobilization and rearming of Ukrainian troops within Ukraine. It also reflects the sense of strategic pressure, such as the pressure from Serbia, the only remaining successor of the former Yugoslavia (the Kosovo War was economically targeted at the euro, aiming to hold the EU to deal with Russia. If Russia follows the Putin line, the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia is a major geopolitical loss for Russia. China also suffered losses, manifested in the bombing of the Chinese embassy, which triggered a series of subsequent policy adjustments in China. Of course, this incident also woke up Russia, which led to Yeltsin handing over power to Putin).
[Related Topics]
Issue 7904 - With the precedent of being deceived by the "Minsk Agreement", although Russia still has unrealistic political illusions about the West, it is almost impossible for Putin to easily believe Trump's words. (March 16, 2025)
Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.
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