2025年3月15日，星期六，第1204期

伊朗海军司令登上解放军“052D-L”型导弹驱逐舰“包头舰”进行“细致参观”传递出何种信号？

【媒体报道】

3月14日，在结束了中俄伊“安全纽带-2025”海上军演后，中国海军编队在伊朗港口停靠。当地时间13日，伊朗海军司令沙赫拉姆-伊拉尼和19国驻伊朗武官，应邀登上解放军052D驱逐舰包头舰进行参观。伊朗海军司令检阅解放军仪仗队。随后更是公开了全舰内外，包括舰桥的驾驶舱等核心舱室都大方展示，伊朗海军司令一行人听着中方人员的讲解，仔细了解了各型武器和系统的性能。

3月15日，俄罗斯总统普京表示，为了高效实现美国总统特朗普关于“饶恕”库尔斯克州被围困的乌军部队的呼吁，乌克兰领导人应当下命令让军队缴械投诚。

【讨论纪要】

●西方说的任何话，俄罗斯都不会再轻易相信，这是诸如默克尔、奥朗德等政客当初在“明斯克协议”问题上自作聪明获得的恶果

我们注意到俄罗斯总统普京回应美国总统特朗普关于“饶恕”库尔斯克州被围困的乌军部队的新闻报道。普京认为，乌克兰领导人应当下命令让军队缴械投诚。

一支被围困的乌克兰（北约）重兵集团，一套意图诓骗俄罗斯“放人”的说辞，这让我们想起了“明斯克协议”。当年俄罗斯相信“明斯克协议”的结果就是被西方（欧美）欺骗了整整八年。用德国前总理默克尔和法国前总统奥朗德的话说，“明斯克协议”就是欺骗俄罗斯为发动乌克兰战争做准备的。值得一提的是，在此期间，因克里米亚问题，西方对俄罗斯进行经济制裁，但相对表面化，这让俄罗斯很大程度上就乌克兰问题放松了警惕。可以说，如果这次俄方应允了特朗普的请求“饶恕”库尔斯克州被围困的乌军部队，换取西方（欧美）对俄罗斯收复库尔斯克地区的默许，无疑而问，这将是“明斯克协议”的翻版。

在继续展开讨论前，我们来看一则新闻报道。

3月15日，韩国军方表示，数架俄罗斯军用飞机当天上午进入韩国东部海域防空识别区，其间没有侵犯韩国领空。

韩国总统尹锡悦弹劾案宣判在即，而李在明此前对尹锡悦原班人马的几个主要官员的指控被全部驳回。不难想象的是，一旦尹锡悦“官复原职”，其手下的“四大金刚，八大罗汉”便可立刻协助其“恢复工作”。所谓“恢复工作”，其中一项很重要的内容就是，严格按照特朗普政府的指令行事，甚至不惜在半岛挑起战端。这让朝鲜半岛局势再度陷入紧张。

3月9日，朝鲜外务省发表新闻公报，谴责美国和韩国举行“自由之盾”大规模联合军演。新闻公报说，美韩不顾朝方再三警告，执意进行大规模联合军演，是“把针锋相对的朝鲜半岛局势推向极限”的“极其危险的挑衅妄动”。

在东方时事解读的观察与评估中，俄罗斯通过军机进入韩国东部海域防空识别区摆出一副随时准备兑现俄朝军事同盟的姿态。显然，这一姿态传递出俄罗斯决策层对西方（欧美）高度不信任的强烈信号。西方说的任何话，俄罗斯都不会再轻易相信，这是诸如默克尔、奥朗德等政客当初在“明斯克协议”问题上自作聪明获得的恶果。

尽管俄罗斯仍对西方抱有不切实际的政治幻想，即便俄罗斯仍然没有放弃和特朗普可能达成交易的想法，但也必须是“一手交钱，一手交货”。而在此之前，比如，特朗普政府协助俄罗斯“有效重返叙利亚”之前，俄罗斯显然并不愿意和中国拉开太远距离。

无论是此前与中国、伊朗联合举行的“和平纽带-2025”联合海上军事演习，还是后来与中国、伊朗在北京提出的“伊核问题上合机制”解决“新模式”，俄罗斯都在向方方面面，尤其是特朗普政府释放“我吃定你了”的强烈信号。

而在特朗普政府看来，尽管俄罗斯一连串动作的本质是讨价还价，但也足够让其感到神经紧张。俄罗斯就这样卡在这里，让特朗普政府陷入进退维谷的尴尬境地。只要没有实质性兑现俄罗斯提出的利益诉求，比如，协助俄罗斯“有效重返叙利亚”，乌克兰问题俄罗斯就不会提供实质性配合。而问题的关键在于，俄罗斯可以等，但特朗普政府不能等。上位两个月，对外政策一片狼藉，导致内部恶斗日益激烈，甚至特朗普极其看重的股市（金融维稳）也被卷入其中——特朗普和“特朗普们”的对头们，如，比尔·盖茨、索罗斯之流，为了能让特朗普政府出丑，为了给其制造困难和麻烦，宁可亏钱也要故意将股市砸下。

所以，俄罗斯认定“吃定”特朗普政府还是有些道理的，要不然，美国回头和欧盟搞好关系？更或是想办法和中国搞好关系？如果都做不到，那么让步的凭什么是俄罗斯呢？

●特朗普如果不想连这一期任期的4年都没有熬到就被赶下台的话，谈就好好谈，玩就往死了玩。国际社会奉陪到底便是！

俄罗斯认定特朗普政府很难在搞定美欧关系，尤其是美俄关系前处理好中美关系的逻辑也许特朗普自己也是认同的。在特朗普眼中，相比于美欧关系和美俄关系，中美关系最重要，也最难处理。如果在访华之前搞定美欧关系和美俄关系，自然面对中国要好谈一些。

但问题在于，特朗普的心思也许早被中国看穿。中国只要做到一点就可以将特朗普政府死死捆住，那就是不断抬高美国处理美欧和美俄关系的门槛儿，让其始终无法，或者大幅延缓达成“先搞定美欧关系和美俄关系，再相对容易地处理中美关系”的战略意图。而让美国处理美欧和美俄关系的门槛儿不断增加的核心就在于中国坚守原则，寸步不让。

以台湾问题举例说明。此前我们曾经就特朗普访华，中方对其提出条件之相关话题进行过深入讨论。其中一条就是，不与其谈台湾问题——无论是此前美方炒作的“放弃台湾”，还是之后美方炒作的“作价将台湾贱卖给中国”，中国一概不予理睬！台湾就是中国的一个省，台湾问题是纯粹的中国内政问题，这一点，中美之间没什么好谈的。

近日，多艘“登岛神器”现身东南沿海。驳船分为超大型（185米架桥）、大型（128米架桥）和小型（108米架桥）三种型号。通过灵活的组合部署，它们能够搭建起超过200米的临时码头，甚至可以将转运距离延伸至水际滩头400米以上。这种高度的灵活性，为登陆带来了全新可能。以往，台岛东部的花莲、台东等地区由于地形复杂，被视为传统的非登陆区。然而，特种驳船的出现彻底打破了这一局限，它甚至能够绕过海滩，直接将装甲部队输送至沿海公路，让岛内所谓“集中防御港口”的预设化为泡影。

此外，近日，媒体曝光了14米装配平台招标的新闻，这意味中国完全有能力制造更庞大，更先进的战略导弹核潜艇。这为我们有关“096级”战略导弹核潜艇“虽未露面，但恐怕早已战备值班”的相关评估提供了进一步佐证。

显然，针对特朗普政府“一边明着表示要和中国好好谈，另一边暗中在‘台湾问题’上做文章搞讹诈”的鬼把戏，中国的回答就只有一句：随时准备收台！尽管中国力求尽量争取“河渡人”的有利态势，但并不意味着中国可以因此放弃原则！

值得一提的是，3月14日，在结束了中俄伊“安全纽带-2025”海上军演后，中国海军编队在伊朗港口停靠，当地时间13日，伊朗海军司令沙赫拉姆-伊拉尼和19国驻伊朗武官，应邀登上解放军052D驱逐舰包头舰进行参观。

值得一提的是，这次被参观的解放军052D驱逐舰“包头舰”是052D-L型，也是此前有传闻称，中东某些国家对此非常感兴趣，且中国也有意向中东地区出口提及的052D驱逐舰的型号。而从新闻报道中，有关“中方大大方方地让大家随便看”以及“大家也看得格外的细致认真”的细节来看，传递出的信号非常微妙：那就是，有人对这艘战舰“很感兴趣”，更有人对，对这艘战舰“很感兴趣”的人感兴趣。至少，外界可以将其解读为，中、俄、伊有意进一步强化三边合作，而且是“背靠上合，春暖花开”！

其不仅可以有效维护欧洲到亚洲的主要海上贸易航线的安全，更可能进一步发展为中俄实质性联手，稳定中亚，有效“重启”上合，借伊朗为战略支点，将与西方博弈的“前线”一把推到有“中东十字路口”之称的叙利亚。这既顾全了国际社会就中东问题的大义，也安全了俄罗斯，伊朗“有效重返叙利亚”的心思。

所以，特朗普如果不想连这一期任期的4年都没有熬到就被赶下台的话，谈就好好谈，玩就往死了玩。不是喜欢搞什么合纵连横、远交近攻吗？国际社会奉陪到底便是！

●随着事态的不断发展，最终是美国利用了欧盟，还是欧盟利用了美国；是美国先出卖欧盟，还是欧盟先出卖美国，不好说！

在进入本次回顾最后一段讨论前，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

3月14日，菲律宾首都马尼拉爆发了大规模反美抗议活动，数千名示威者走上街头，高呼“美军滚出菲律宾”“马科斯下台”等口号，与警方发生冲突，导致至少30人受伤，数辆警车被焚毁。

一直以来，美国对欧盟主导的国际刑事法院都没有什么好印象，甚至美国一贯认为，国际刑事法院的存在某种意义上是针对美国的。2002年，时任美国总统小布什签署《美国公务员保护法》法案，公然无视“国际刑事法院”——即便美国人在全球到处做出侵略、发动战争、施行酷刑这类反人类的恶行，也不会因实质的反人类罪在荷兰海牙受审。ASPA 指出，若有美国人被国际刑事法院拘留，美国总统有权采取一切所需恰当手段，解救被其拘留或监禁的美国及盟国人员。

此前我们就菲律宾前总统杜特尔特被捕一事做出过初步评估，提及美国和欧盟，分别以“推动者”和“执行者”的身份，基于各取所取——美国有意借欧盟之力对冲中国在西太方向日益增强的战略压力，而欧盟也有意介入西太局势发展为自己捞取筹码，配合了一把，但我们也强调，这一配合的结果仅仅从开始是看不出个眉目的。也就是说，随着事态的不断发展，最终是美国利用了欧盟，还是欧盟利用了美国；是美国先出卖欧盟，还是欧盟先出卖美国，不好说！

可以肯定的是，小马科斯政府大概率已被特朗普政府利用，如果杜特尔特在经过一个相对短暂的庭审后被“无罪释放”，那么小马科斯政府被特朗普政府出卖就是板上钉钉的事情。这意味着，内忧外困的特朗普政府不得不准备在南海问题上给中国一个说法。

当美国和包括以色列（内塔尼亚胡小集团）、伊朗在内的方方面面都没有搞好关系的情况下，只能无奈地回到乌克兰问题上谋求缓和对俄、对欧关系，但欧俄在乌克兰问题上又是一对儿“葫芦和瓢”。不得已，特朗普政府恐怕只能进一步寻求对俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上妥协让步。

但对俄罗斯而言，不见兔子不撒鹰，反而特朗普政府的进一步妥协会被俄罗斯反手利用，成为催讨，甚至进一步从特朗普政府手中淘换自己急需利益，比如，“有小重返叙利亚”的“催命符”。而在欧盟看来，特朗普政府进一步对俄罗斯让步就是对欧盟在乌克兰问题上利益的进一步损害。在此情况下，不排除，恶向胆边生的欧盟会推动相关政要加速访华，甚至借自己手上掌控的ICC，通过宣判杜特尔特无罪，先手把本是美国的牌用掉，这显然是在杜特尔特被捕一事后续发展中，欧盟出卖美国利益的具体表现。

如果特朗普政府真的打算通过进一步对俄罗斯妥协的方式拿到美俄关系缓和，那就一定要想办法按住欧盟。有趣的是，就在这几天，北约秘书长吕特表示，欧美将在俄乌冲突后与俄逐步恢复“正常关系”。这话是说给欧盟听的，如果吕特口中的“北约”指的是美国的话，那么在俄乌冲突后与俄逐步恢复“正常关系”显然针对的就是“北约”的剩余部分——欧盟。显然，这是典型的“放熊咬人”。

如果特朗普政府真的打算通过这种方式，进一步牺牲乌克兰利益，牺牲欧盟利益以讨好俄罗斯，并为拿到美俄关系缓和后随即展开的访华之旅（缓和对华关系是必选项）奠定基础的话，则不排除特朗普政府在杜特尔特被捕一事后续发展中公开炒作“国际刑事法院对菲律宾没有管辖权”的可能性。如果真的如此，那就是特朗普政府抢先，在杜特尔特被捕一事后续发展中出卖了欧盟。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Saturday, March 15, 2025, Issue No. 1204

What Signal Does the Visit of the Iranian Navy Commander to the PLA’s "052D-L" Missile Destroyer "Baotou Ship" Convey?

[Media Coverage]

On March 14, after concluding the China-Russia-Iran "Security Bond-2025" naval exercise, the Chinese naval fleet docked at an Iranian port. On the 13th local time, Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Irani and military attachés from 19 countries were invited to board the PLA’s 052D destroyer, the Baotou Ship, for a visit. Commander Irani reviewed the PLA honor guard. Subsequently, the entire ship, including its core compartments such as the bridge and cockpit, was openly displayed. Commander Irani and his delegation listened to detailed explanations from Chinese personnel, gaining a thorough understanding of the performance of various weapons and systems.

On March 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that to efficiently fulfill U.S. President Trump’s call to "spare" the besieged Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, Ukrainian leaders should order their troops to lay down their arms and surrender.

【Discussion Summary】

● Russia Will No Longer Easily Believe Anything the West Says—This Is the Bitter Fruit of Politicians Like Merkel and Hollande’s Cleverness on the "Minsk Agreement"

We noted Russian President Putin’s response to U.S. President Trump’s call to "spare" the besieged Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. Putin believes that Ukrainian leaders should order their troops to lay down their arms and surrender.

A besieged Ukrainian (NATO) heavy force and a set of rhetoric intended to deceive Russia into "releasing" them remind us of the "Minsk Agreement." Back then, Russia’s trust in the "Minsk Agreement" resulted in being deceived by the West (Europe and the U.S.) for a full eight years. As former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former French President François Hollande put it, the "Minsk Agreement" was a ploy to deceive Russia and prepare for the Ukraine war. It is worth noting that during this period, due to the Crimea issue, the West imposed economic sanctions on Russia, but they were relatively superficial, causing Russia to largely lower its guard on the Ukraine issue. It can be said that if Russia agrees to Trump’s request to "spare" the besieged Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region in exchange for the West’s tacit approval of Russia’s recapture of the Kursk region, this would undoubtedly be a repeat of the "Minsk Agreement."

Before continuing the discussion, let’s look at another news report.

On March 15, the South Korean military stated that several Russian military aircraft entered the air defense identification zone in the eastern waters of South Korea that morning, without violating South Korean airspace.

The impeachment verdict for South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is imminent, while previous charges against several key officials from Yoon’s original team by Lee Jae-myung were all dismissed. It is not hard to imagine that once Yoon is "reinstated," his "four guardian generals and eight arhats" can immediately assist him in "resuming work." Part of this "resuming work" involves strictly following the Trump administration’s directives, even at the risk of provoking conflict on the peninsula. This has once again plunged the Korean Peninsula into tension.

On March 9, North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a press release condemning the U.S. and South Korea for conducting the large-scale "Freedom Shield" joint military exercise. The press release stated that despite repeated warnings from North Korea, the U.S. and South Korea insisted on conducting the large-scale joint military exercise, calling it an "extremely dangerous provocation" that "pushes the already tense situation on the Korean Peninsula to the limit."

In the observations and assessments of Eastern Commentary, Russia’s military aircraft entering South Korea’s eastern air defense identification zone signals its readiness to fulfill the Russia-North Korea military alliance. Clearly, this posture conveys a strong signal from Russian decision-makers of their deep distrust of the West (Europe and the U.S.). Russia will no longer easily believe anything the West says—this is the bitter fruit of politicians like Merkel and Hollande’s cleverness on the "Minsk Agreement."

Although Russia still harbors unrealistic political fantasies about the West, and even though it has not abandoned the idea of possibly striking a deal with Trump, it must be a case of "one hand pays, the other delivers." Before that, for example, before the Trump administration assists Russia in "effectively returning to Syria," Russia is clearly unwilling to distance itself too much from China.

Whether it is the previously held "Peace Bond-2025" joint naval exercise with China and Iran, or the later proposed "SCO mechanism on the Iranian nuclear issue" with China and Iran in Beijing, Russia is sending a strong signal to all parties, especially the Trump administration, that "I’ve got you in my sights."

From the Trump administration’s perspective, although the essence of Russia’s series of actions is bargaining, it is enough to make them nervous. Russia is stuck here, leaving the Trump administration in an awkward dilemma. As long as Russia’s interests are not substantively met, such as assisting Russia in "effectively returning to Syria," Russia will not provide substantive cooperation on the Ukraine issue. The key problem is that Russia can wait, but the Trump administration cannot. After two months in office, its foreign policy is in shambles, leading to increasingly intense internal strife, and even the stock market (financial stability), which Trump values highly, has been dragged into it—Trump and the "Trump faction’s" opponents, such as Bill Gates and Soros, are willing to lose money to deliberately crash the stock market just to embarrass the Trump government and create difficulties for them.

Therefore, Russia’s belief that it "has the Trump administration in its sights" is somewhat justified. Otherwise, why not the U.S. mend its relationship with the EU? Or try to improve relations with China? If neither can be done, why should Russia be the one to make concessions?

● If Trump Doesn’t Want to Be Ousted Before Completing His Four-Year Term, Then Negotiate Seriously or Fight to the Death. The International Community Will Follow Through!

The logic that Russia believes the Trump administration will find it difficult to handle China-U.S. relations before managing U.S.-EU and U.S.-Russia relations might be something Trump himself agrees with. In Trump’s eyes, compared to U.S.-EU and U.S.-Russia relations, China-U.S. relations are the most important and the most difficult to handle. If U.S.-EU and U.S.-Russia relations are settled before visiting China, it would naturally make negotiations with China easier.

However, the problem is that Trump’s intentions might have already been seen through by China. China only needs to do one thing to tightly bind the Trump administration, and that is to continuously raise the threshold for the U.S. to handle U.S.-EU and U.S.-Russia relations, making it always impossible or significantly delaying the achievement of the strategic intent of "first settling U.S.-EU and U.S.-Russia relations, then relatively easily handling China-U.S. relations." The core of continuously raising the threshold for the U.S. to handle U.S.-EU and U.S.-Russia relations lies in China’s adherence to principles, without yielding an inch.

Take the Taiwan issue as an example. Previously, we discussed in depth the conditions China proposed to Trump regarding his visit to China. One of them was not to discuss the Taiwan issue with him—whether it was the U.S. hype about "abandoning Taiwan" or later about "selling Taiwan cheaply to China," China ignored it all! Taiwan is a province of China, and the Taiwan issue is purely China’s internal affair. On this point, there is nothing to discuss between China and the U.S.

Recently, multiple "island landing devices" appeared along the southeastern coast. These barges come in three models: super-large (185-meter bridge), large (128-meter bridge), and small (108-meter bridge). Through flexible deployment, they can set up temporary docks over 200 meters long, even extending the transfer distance to over 400 meters from the water’s edge. This high level of flexibility brings new possibilities for landings. In the past, areas like Hualien and Taitung on the eastern side of Taiwan were considered non-landing zones due to their complex terrain. However, the emergence of special barges completely breaks this limitation, allowing armored units to be directly transported to coastal roads, rendering the island’s so-called "port defense" plans obsolete.

Additionally, recent media exposure of a 14-meter assembly platform tender indicates that China is fully capable of building larger and more advanced strategic missile nuclear submarines. This further supports our assessment that the "Type 096" strategic missile nuclear submarine, though not yet seen, is likely already on combat duty.

Clearly, in response to the Trump administration’s "double game of ostensibly expressing a desire to negotiate with China while secretly playing tricks on the Taiwan issue for blackmail," China’s answer is only one: ready to take Taiwan at any time! Although China strives to maximize the favorable situation of "crossing the river by feeling the stones," it does not mean China can abandon its principles for this purpose!

It is worth noting that on March 14, after concluding the China-Russia-Iran "Security Bond-2025" naval exercise, the Chinese naval fleet docked at an Iranian port. On the 13th local time, Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Irani and military attachés from 19 countries were invited to board the PLA’s 052D destroyer, the Baotou Ship, for a visit.

It is worth noting that the PLA’s 052D destroyer "Baotou Ship" visited this time is the 052D-L type, which has been rumored to be of great interest to certain Middle Eastern countries, and China has also expressed its intention to export this type of destroyer to the Middle East. From the details in the news report about "China openly allowing everyone to look around freely" and "everyone also looked exceptionally carefully," the signals conveyed are very subtle: some are "very interested" in this warship, and others are interested in those who are "very interested" in this warship. At the very least, the outside world can interpret it as China, Russia, and Iran’s intention to further strengthen trilateral cooperation, and it is "backed by the SCO, with spring blooming!"

It can not only effectively safeguard the security of the main maritime trade routes from Europe to Asia but may also further develop into China and Russia substantively joining forces to stabilize Central Asia, effectively "restart" the SCO, and use Iran as a strategic pivot to push the "frontline" of their confrontation with the West to Syria, known as the "crossroads of the Middle East." This not only aligns with the international community’s righteousness on the Middle East issue but also satisfies Russia and Iran’s desire to "effectively return to Syria."

Therefore, if Trump doesn’t want to be ousted before completing his four-year term, then negotiate seriously or fight to the death. Isn’t he fond of playing games like "vertical and horizontal alliances" and "befriending the distant to attack the near"? The international community will follow through!

● As the Situation Develops, It’s Hard to Say Whether the U.S. Will Use the EU or the EU Will Use the U.S.; Whether the U.S. Will Sell Out the EU First or the EU Will Sell Out the U.S. First!

Before entering the final discussion of this review, let’s look at another news report.

On March 14, large-scale anti-U.S. protests broke out in Manila, the capital of the Philippines. Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets, chanting slogans like "U.S. troops out of the Philippines" and "Marcos step down," clashing with the police, resulting in at least 30 injuries and several police cars being burned.

The U.S. has never had a good impression of the EU-led International Criminal Court (ICC), and even believes that the existence of the ICC is, in a sense, targeting the U.S. In 2002, then-U.S. President George W. Bush signed the "American Servicemembers' Protection Act," blatantly ignoring the ICC—even if Americans commit atrocities like aggression, war, and torture globally, they will not be tried for substantive crimes against humanity in The Hague, Netherlands. The ASPA states that if any American is detained by the ICC, the U.S. President has the authority to take all necessary and appropriate measures to rescue detained or imprisoned U.S. and allied personnel.

Previously, we made a preliminary assessment on the arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, mentioning that the U.S. and the EU, as the "promoter" and "executor" respectively, acted based on their respective interests—the U.S. intended to use the EU’s strength to counterbalance China’s increasing strategic pressure in the Western Pacific, while the EU also intended to intervene in the Western Pacific situation to gain leverage for itself. However, we also emphasized that the outcome of this cooperation cannot be seen from the beginning. In other words, as the situation develops, it’s hard to say whether the U.S. will use the EU or the EU will use the U.S.; whether the U.S. will sell out the EU first or the EU will sell out the U.S. first!

What is certain is that the Marcos Jr. government has most likely been used by the Trump administration. If Duterte is "acquitted" after a relatively short trial, then the Marcos Jr. government being sold out by the Trump administration is a foregone conclusion. This means that the Trump administration, plagued by internal and external troubles, will have to prepare to give China an explanation on the South China Sea issue.

When the U.S. has not managed its relations with Israel (the Netanyahu clique), Iran, and other parties, it can only helplessly return to the Ukraine issue to seek to ease relations with Russia and the EU. However, the EU and Russia are like "a gourd and a ladle" on the Ukraine issue. As a last resort, the Trump administration may have to further seek to compromise with Russia on the Ukraine issue.

But for Russia, it won’t release the eagle without seeing the rabbit. Instead, the Trump administration’s further compromises will be used by Russia as a "death warrant" to demand, or even further extract, the interests it urgently needs from the Trump administration, such as "a small return to Syria." From the EU’s perspective, the Trump administration’s further concessions to Russia mean further damage to the EU’s interests on the Ukraine issue. In this case, it is not impossible that the EU, driven by desperation, will push relevant officials to accelerate their visits to China, or even use the ICC under its control to acquit Duterte, preemptively playing the card that originally belonged to the U.S. This is clearly a specific manifestation of the EU selling out U.S. interests in the follow-up to Duterte’s arrest.

If the Trump administration really intends to achieve a U.S.-Russia détente by further compromising with Russia, it must find a way to restrain the EU. Interestingly, just in the past few days, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Europe and the U.S. will gradually restore "normal relations" with Russia after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If Stoltenberg’s "NATO" refers to the U.S., then "gradually restoring normal relations with Russia after the Russia-Ukraine conflict" clearly targets the remaining part of "NATO"—the EU. Obviously, this is a classic case of "setting the bear on someone."

If the Trump administration really intends to further sacrifice Ukraine’s interests and the EU’s interests to appease Russia and lay the foundation for a U.S.-Russia détente followed by a visit to China (easing China-U.S. relations is a must), then it is not impossible that the Trump administration will publicly hype "the ICC has no jurisdiction over the Philippines" in the follow-up to Duterte’s arrest. If this really happens, it would be the Trump administration preemptively selling out the EU in the follow-up to Duterte’s arrest.

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