2025年3月4日，星期二，第1194期

透过错综复杂的“北溪-2”天然气管道重启事件再观察，是否会上演美版“土木堡之变”

【媒体报道】

3月3日，某德国知名媒体援引消息人士的话报道称，美国总统特别任务特使格雷内尔数次前往瑞士，就重启“北溪”天然气管道进行商讨。报道指出，协议规定，美国将充当俄罗斯通过“北溪2”管道供应天然气的中间人。同时，还计划修复和重建“北溪”管道，以通过其从芬兰向德国输送绿色氢气。

【讨论纪要】

●俄罗斯或将是否同意“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启，看作是特朗普政府对俄缓和关系的“诚意”所在

3月3日，有德国媒体报道称，美国总统特别任务特使格雷内尔数次前往瑞士，就重启“北溪”天然气管道进行商讨。这一新闻报道的内容看上去似乎与上一次我们就这一话题给出的初步评估有所不同。我们认为，主要依靠美国传统能源既得利益集团上位的特朗普没有理由去推动“北溪-2”天然气管道的重启项目，因为这直接损害了美国传统能源供应商的核心利益，他们现在正源源不断地将液化天然气运往欧洲，赚取输欧能源的高额利润。反倒是已经或正计划逃往欧洲的“特朗普们之马斯克们”的冤家对头——“拜登们之索罗斯们”有动机这样做。

目前阶段，有迹象表明，美国内部恶斗的主要领域已经转向对强力部门的争夺，比如，警察，军队等。总体来说，双方是“半斤对八两”。从这一点看，“特朗普们之马斯克们”似乎没有理由得罪美国的传统能源既得利益集团。

在继续展开讨论前，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

3月2日，克里姆林宫称，没有任何关于管道谈判的信息，但俄气则拒绝对此进行回应。

在“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启的问题上，俄罗斯的态度比较微妙，一方面，其官方，也就是外交部表示不掌握情况；另一方面，非官方，也就是俄罗斯天然气股份有限公司即不承认，也不否认。在我们看来，两者综合起来或许是俄方的真实态度（俄罗斯不会主动提及，因为欧洲目前对俄政策是敌对的。目前特朗普政府和欧洲的关系微妙复杂，特朗普政府无论出于国内，还是出于国外因素也不会主动去推动，显然，这就是一个陷阱。遗憾的是，我们看不到俄罗斯有这个智慧处理好这件事。俄罗斯只要上当，特朗普政府也只能随之，因为特朗普政府要缓和美俄关系，俄罗斯会顺势提出解除制裁）。也就是俄罗斯有意推动“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启。当然，意愿是意愿。也就是说，如果真的“北溪-2”天然气管道项目进行重建，单靠俄罗斯自己，恐怕是拿不出这笔钱的。不过，这并不妨碍俄罗斯将是否同意“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启，看作是特朗普政府对俄缓和关系的“诚意”所在。

●“拜登们之索罗斯们”想要“将水搅混”

在“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启问题上，欧盟心态比较复杂。出于必须确保能够在瓜分乌克兰的过程中分到一杯羹，表面上是不会赞同的。出于可以重新从俄罗斯获取廉价能源，改善欧洲经济惨淡经营的现状，心里则会大加赞同。

但对特朗普政府来说，在“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启一事上的就不仅是心态复杂的问题了，而是很棘手：一方面，特朗普政府不能明确表态支持，因为这会让美国传统能源既得利益集团感到愤怒；另一方面，特朗普政府又不能明确表态不支持，因为这会让俄罗斯感到愤怒。

不排除，在某些欧洲媒体炒作“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启一事的背后，有人在“特朗普们之马斯克们”和美国传统能源既得利益集团之间挑拨是非的可能性，并借此机会让特朗普政府决策困难。如果真的特朗普政府没有能够拦住“北溪-2”天然气管道项目的重启，美国传统能源既得利益集团是否会把特朗普看作是“肯尼迪式的叛徒”呢？

至于“有人”指的是谁，至少，已经“逃离”美国来到欧洲“安营扎寨”的，某种意义上说，虽然仍是代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益的一部分，但越来越多以“欧洲资本利益”甚至“欧洲利益”示人、发声的“拜登们之索罗斯们”难逃嫌疑。当然，其中或也包括计划“逃离”美国的代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益的“另一些人”。

需要强调的是，“拜登们之索罗斯们”当然也不会实际推动“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启，毕竟他们在惨烈的美国内部恶斗中也要争取美国传统能源既得利益集团的支持，但并不妨碍他们在这个问题上“带节奏”给“特朗普们之马斯克们”设置陷阱。显然，“拜登们之索罗斯们”想要“将水搅混”，无论是在美国内部还是在美国外部。传递出的信号很强烈，那就是：特朗普政府不是谋求通过缓和对华、对欧、对俄关系中的“大多数”为更好地执行“攘外必先安内”政策提供外部战略腾挪空间吗？那就把特朗普政府的这些努力全都搅和了，让其无从下手，不知所措，决策困难，看你特朗普还怎么继续内斗！也就是，怎么借助外部策应，调用外交资源更好地去内斗！

不难想象的是，如果我们的评估最终得到证实，有人真的借此机会给“特朗普们之马斯克们”设置陷阱，甚至刻意将其贴上“肯尼迪式叛徒”的标签，那么距离美国版“土木堡之变”的出现还会远吗？

●“哑巴吃黄连，有苦说不出”的特朗普（政府）

需要补充的是，一方面，鉴于西方（欧美）在明斯克协议的问题上让俄罗斯上过当，所以现在忽悠俄罗斯自然是没有那么容易，“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启一事对俄罗斯的吸引力不可谓不大，甚至超过完全赢得俄乌战争本身。或者说，完全实现对乌特别军事行动的全部军事目标。因为经济利益是最实在的，可以说立竿见影；另一方面，一旦“北溪-2”天然气管道项目真的重启，那将意味着西方基本上实质性解禁对俄罗斯的经济制裁（贸易、结算全部恢复正常，对俄制裁将名存实亡），甚至可以说，西方在俄乌战争中彻底失败。虽然美国资本利益在俄乌战争上有退出机制，但欧洲国家利益怎么办？美国国家利益又得到了什么？

所以，在“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启这件事上，可以说，对俄罗斯的吸引力越大，俄罗斯越上心，特朗普政府越是决策困难。显然，将“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启一事提出来炒作的人经过了精心策划，选的点不可谓不刁钻，这件事无论最终能不能成，对美俄关系的缓和不是一件好事，让美欧关系变得更加微妙复杂，更让“特朗普们之马斯克们”在美国内部恶斗日益激烈的今天处境变得愈发不妙。而这恐怕正是将局势搅浑。且意图混水摸鱼的“拜登们之索罗斯们”乐见的混会摸鱼。

类似的事情还有，2月26日，美国总统特朗普在首次内阁会议上提及台湾问题，强调美国将与中方发展良好关系，但拒绝就“出兵保台”发表评论。在我们看来，面对中国人民解放军舰队怼在澳大利亚家门口“开枪放炮”一事，特朗普政府的心态与面对“北溪-2”天然气管道项目重启一事类似。将这两件事放在美国内部恶斗日益激烈的角度去观察，大家也许就很容易明白，为什么特朗普不敢轻易张嘴，落得个“哑巴吃黄连，有苦说不出”的被动处境。

●再次强调，巴基斯坦在关键时刻能保持中立就不错了

对特朗普政府而言，除了为了更好应对美国内部恶斗而阶段性缓和俄美关系外，其中从来都内嵌有实质性瓦解中俄战略互信的险恶意图，也就是先谋求“解冻”目前处于“暂时冻结”状态的“南亚破局”进程，后谋求实质性推动之。

在这样一个背景下，我们不妨关注一下南亚、中亚方向的一些新变化。

我们注意到，近日，塔利班与巴基斯坦边防军在托尔哈姆边境口岸发生武装冲突的新闻报道。

在我们看来，在俄美关系总体趋于缓和的大背景下，南亚方向的巴基斯坦和中亚方向的阿富汗还是很可能要出事的。这也是在很早之前，东方时事解读在“落水捞人”的问题上做出“巴基斯坦在关键时刻能保持中立就不错了”之相关评估的原因之一。

公开消息显示，巴基斯坦当局已经将其境内最大的雷科迪克巨型金铜矿交予加拿大矿业公司合作，项目潜在产值超2600亿美元。值得一提的是，雷科迪克巨型金铜矿就位于这次塔利班与巴基斯坦边防军在托尔哈姆边境口岸发生武装冲突的俾路支地区。

某种意义上说，中巴关系是不错的，但在实际利益层面，巴基斯坦当局做出了上述选择，由此可见，巴基斯坦内部受西方影响是不能忽视的。近段时间，国际社会和西方在阿富汗的博弈日益激烈。中国虽然支持阿富汗临时政府，但俄罗斯的真实想法始终晦暗不明。所以，短期内，阿富汗难以实现真正的稳定，再加上一个对外政策基本运行在“投降主义”路线上的伊朗当局，巴基斯坦所在的南亚地区也是如此。

简单来说，这件事对国际社会而言，有好有坏。一方面，国际社会显然未能参与到这一保守估计价值2600亿美元的庞大矿产开发项目中；另一方面，国际社会也不急于参与其中。在我们看来，今天西方在这里“搞建设”所做的一切都是为以后“一带一路”做“嫁衣裳”。西方在这里开采矿产的核心目的并不是为了建设，更没有长远的宏伟目标，他们更喜欢“赚快钱”。所以，他们今天所做的一切注定是短视的，局部的，阶段性的。而国际社会最大的优势就在时间。此外，友情提醒巴基斯坦当局的是，如果未来遇到了什么为难之处，作为友好邻邦，中国自然不会袖手旁观，但鉴于巴基斯坦当局已经将其境内最大的雷科迪克巨型金铜矿交予加拿大矿业公司经营的现实选择，建议更多帮助请向加拿大寻求。这是一件很公平的事情。

最后需要补充的是，如果“北溪-2”项目真的开启重建了，无论是特朗普政府真的没拦住，亦或是“假戏”因“操作不慎”变成“真唱”，大家不妨密切观察俄罗斯对外政策，尤其是对华政策会否出现不利于国际社会的新变化。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Tuesday, March 4, 2025, Issue No. 1194

Re-examining the Complex Situation of the "Nord Stream 2" Pipeline Restart: Could It Lead to an American Version of the "Tumubao Incident"?

[Media Coverage]

On March 3, a well-known German media outlet reported, citing sources, that U.S. President's Special Envoy Grenell has made several trips to Switzerland to discuss the restart of the "Nord Stream" natural gas pipeline.

The report pointed out that the agreement stipulates that the United States will act as an intermediary for Russia's natural gas supply through the "Nord Stream 2" pipeline.

At the same time, there are plans to repair and rebuild the "Nord Stream" pipeline to transport green hydrogen from Finland to Germany.

【Discussion Summary】

●Russia May View Its Agreement to Restart the "Nord Stream 2" Project as a Sign of the Trump Administration's Sincerity in Easing Relations**

On March 3, a German media report stated that U.S. President's Special Envoy Grenell has made several trips to Switzerland to discuss the restart of the "Nord Stream" natural gas pipeline. The content of this news report seems to differ from our previous preliminary assessment on the topic. We believe that Trump, who rose to power primarily with the support of traditional U.S. energy interest groups, has no reason to push for the restart of the "Nord Stream 2" project, as it directly harms the core interests of traditional U.S. energy suppliers, who are currently profiting handsomely from exporting liquefied natural gas to Europe. Instead, it is more likely that the "Bidens and Soroses," the adversaries of the "Trumps and Musks" who have fled or are planning to flee to Europe, have the motivation to do so.

At this stage, there are signs that the main battleground of internal strife in the United States has shifted to the competition for control over powerful institutions, such as the police and the military. Overall, the two sides are evenly matched. From this perspective, the "Trumps and Musks" seem to have no reason to alienate traditional U.S. energy interest groups.

Before continuing the discussion, let's look at another news report.

On March 2, the Kremlin stated that it had no information about pipeline negotiations, while Gazprom refused to comment.

Regarding the restart of the "Nord Stream 2" project, Russia's attitude is quite nuanced. On one hand, its official channels, such as the Foreign Ministry, claim to have no knowledge of the situation; on the other hand, unofficial channels, such as Gazprom, neither confirm nor deny it. In our view, the combination of these two positions may reflect Russia's true stance (Russia will not

bring it up proactively, as Europe's current policy toward Russia is hostile. The Trump administration's relationship with Europe is also complex, and Trump, whether for domestic or international reasons, will not actively push for it. Clearly, this is a trap. Unfortunately, we do not see Russia having the wisdom to handle this matter well. If Russia falls into the trap, the Trump administration will have no choice but to follow, as it seeks to ease U.S.-Russia relations, and Russia will likely demand the lifting of sanctions). In other words, Russia may indeed intend to push for the restart of the "Nord Stream 2" project. Of course, intention is one thing. Even if the "Nord Stream 2" project is to be rebuilt, Russia alone likely cannot afford the cost. However, this does not prevent Russia from viewing its agreement to restart the project as a sign of the Trump administration's sincerity in easing relations.

●The "Bidens and Soroses" Want to "Muddy the Waters"

On the issue of restarting the "Nord Stream 2" project, the EU's mindset is complex. On the surface, it would not support the project, as it must ensure it can secure a share in the division of Ukraine. However, deep down, it would likely welcome the opportunity to obtain cheap energy from Russia again and improve Europe's struggling economy.

For the Trump administration, the issue of restarting the "Nord Stream 2" project is not just a matter of complex mindset but a thorny one: on one hand, the Trump administration cannot explicitly support it, as it would anger traditional U.S. energy interest groups; on the other hand, it cannot explicitly oppose it, as it would anger Russia.

It cannot be ruled out that behind the hype in some European media about the restart of the "Nord Stream 2" project, there may be someone attempting to sow discord between the "Trumps and Musks" and traditional U.S. energy interest groups, thereby making it difficult for the Trump administration to make decisions. If the Trump administration fails to prevent the restart of the "Nord Stream 2" project, would traditional U.S. energy interest groups view Trump as a "Kennedy-style traitor"?

As for who this "someone" might be, at the very least, the "Bidens and Soroses," who have "fled" the United States and settled in Europe, are prime suspects. In a sense, although they still represent part of the interests of Western capital, they increasingly present themselves as "European capital interests" or even "European interests." Of course, this may also include others who plan to "flee" the United States and represent the interests of Western capital.

It is important to emphasize that the "Bidens and Soroses" would not actually push for the restart of the "Nord Stream 2" project, as they also need to win the support of traditional U.S. energy interest groups in the fierce internal U.S. struggle. However, this does not prevent them from setting traps for the "Trumps and Musks" on this issue. Clearly, the "Bidens and Soroses" want to "muddy the waters," both within and outside the United States. The strong signal they are sending is this: Isn't the Trump administration seeking to ease relations with China, Europe, and Russia to create external strategic maneuvering space for its "domestic consolidation before external action" policy? Then let's disrupt all these efforts, leaving the Trump administration unable to act, confused, and struggling to make decisions. Let's see how Trump continues his internal battles! In other words, how can he leverage external support and diplomatic resources to better wage internal battles!

It is not hard to imagine that if our assessment is ultimately confirmed, and someone indeed uses this opportunity to set traps for the "Trumps and Musks," even deliberately labeling them as "Kennedy-style traitors," then the emergence of an American version of the "Tumubao Incident" may not be far off.

●The Trump Administration: "A Mute Eating Bitter Melon, Unable to Express Its Pain"

It is worth noting that, on one hand, given that the West (Europe and the U.S.) previously deceived Russia with the Minsk agreements, it is now much harder to trick Russia again. The restart of the "Nord Stream 2" project holds significant appeal for Russia, even surpassing the complete victory in the Russia-Ukraine war itself. In other words, achieving all the military objectives of the special military operation in Ukraine. This is because economic benefits are tangible and immediate. On the other hand, if the "Nord Stream 2" project is indeed restarted, it would mean that the West has essentially lifted its economic sanctions on Russia (trade and settlements would return to normal, rendering the sanctions meaningless). It could even be said that the West has completely failed in the Russia-Ukraine war. While U.S. capital interests have an exit mechanism in the Russia-Ukraine war, what about the national interests of European countries? What has the U.S. national interest gained?

Therefore, the greater the appeal of restarting the "Nord Stream 2" project to Russia, the more Russia will focus on it, and the more difficult it will be for the Trump administration to make decisions. Clearly, those who brought up the issue of restarting the "Nord Stream 2" project for hype have carefully planned it, choosing a particularly tricky point. Whether this matter ultimately succeeds or not, it is not beneficial for the easing of U.S.-Russia relations, makes U.S.-Europe relations more complex, and puts the "Trumps and Musks" in an increasingly precarious position in the intensifying internal U.S. struggle. This is likely exactly what the "Bidens and Soroses," who aim to muddy the waters and fish in troubled waters, are happy to see.

A similar situation occurred on February 26, when U.S. President Trump mentioned the Taiwan issue at his first cabinet meeting, emphasizing that the U.S. would develop good relations with China but refused to comment on "sending troops to defend Taiwan." In our view, the Trump administration's mindset in facing the Chinese People's Liberation Army fleet "firing shots" near Australia's doorstep is similar to its approach to the "Nord Stream 2" project restart. Observing these two issues in the context of the intensifying internal U.S. struggle, it becomes easy to understand why Trump dares not speak rashly, leaving him in a passive position of "a mute eating bitter melon, unable to express its pain."

●Reiterating That Pakistan Remaining Neutral at Critical Moments Is Already a Positive Outcome

For the Trump administration, in addition to temporarily easing U.S.-Russia relations to better cope with internal U.S. struggles, there has always been an embedded malicious intent to substantially undermine the strategic mutual trust between China and Russia. This involves first seeking to "thaw" the currently "frozen" process of "breaking the situation in South Asia" and then pushing for its substantive advancement.

In this context, let’s pay attention to some new developments in South Asia and Central Asia.

We have noticed recent news reports of armed clashes between the Taliban and Pakistani border forces at the Torkham border crossing.

In our view, against the backdrop of an overall easing of U.S.-Russia relations, trouble is likely to arise in South Asia, particularly in Pakistan, and in Central Asia, particularly in Afghanistan. This is one of the reasons why, in earlier assessments, we concluded that "Pakistan remaining neutral at critical moments is already a positive outcome" in the context of "rescuing someone from drowning."

Public information shows that the Pakistani authorities have handed over the country's largest Reko Diq gold and copper mine to a Canadian mining company, with a potential project value exceeding $260 billion. Notably, the Reko Diq mine is located in the Balochistan region, where the recent armed clashes between the Taliban and Pakistani border forces occurred.

In a sense, China-Pakistan relations are good. However, at the level of practical interests, the Pakistani authorities have made the above choice, indicating that Western influence within Pakistan cannot be ignored. Recently, the competition between the international community and the West in Afghanistan has intensified. While China supports the interim Afghan government, Russia's true intentions remain unclear. Therefore, Afghanistan is unlikely to achieve true stability in the short term, and the same applies to South Asia, where Pakistan is located, especially with an Iranian regime whose foreign policy largely follows a "capitulationist" line.

Simply put, this matter has both positive and negative aspects for the international community. On one hand, the international community has clearly not participated in this massive mining project, conservatively estimated at $260 billion; on the other hand, the international community is in no hurry to get involved. In our view, everything the West is doing here today to "build" is essentially preparing the groundwork for the future "Belt and Road" initiative. The core purpose of the West in mining here is not for construction, nor does it have long-term grand goals—they prefer to "make quick money." Therefore, what they are doing today is destined to be short-sighted, localized, and temporary. The international community's greatest advantage lies in time. Additionally, as a friendly reminder to the Pakistani authorities: if they encounter difficulties in the future, as a friendly neighbor, China will naturally not stand idly by. However, given the Pakistani authorities' choice to hand over the Reko Diq mine to a Canadian company, it is suggested that they seek more assistance from Canada. This is a fair approach.

Finally, it is worth noting that if the "Nord Stream 2" project indeed begins reconstruction—whether because the Trump administration failed to stop it or because a "fake play" turned into a "real performance" due to "careless handling"—it is worth closely observing whether Russia's foreign policy, especially its policy toward China, will show new changes unfavorable to the international community.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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