2025年3月1日，星期六，第1192期

美乌总统白宫“激烈争吵”到底是真是假？其背后传递出怎样的政治信号？

【媒体报道】

3月1日，美国总统特朗普表示，如果泽连斯基停止批评俄罗斯领导人普京并明确表示希望和平解决冲突，他愿意恢复与泽连斯基的对话。美国总统特朗普与泽连斯基2月28日在华盛顿举行的会晤演变成了一场争论。据美国媒体报道，冲突发生后，特朗普感到不受尊重，将泽连斯基“赶”了出去。华盛顿与基辅之间稀土金属交易的签署被取消。

【讨论纪要】

●叙利亚库尔德武装“叙利亚民主力量”是美国在叙利亚豢养的恐怖分子组织

首先，我们来关注一下叙利亚局势的一些最新变化。

2月27日，被土耳其政府监禁的库尔德工人党领导人阿卜杜拉·厄贾兰发表“弃武”声明后，土耳其官员于2月28日要求所有与这一组织有关联的叙利亚和伊拉克境内的库尔德武装也放下武器、宣布解散。3月1日，有法国媒体报道称，如果库尔德工人党宣布与土耳其政府停火，将结束长达40余年的流血冲突。

从法国媒体报道的内容看，似乎有关于库尔德人和土耳其之间长达40余年的流血冲突即将结束，但真实的情况恐怕并非如此。

阿卜杜拉·奥贾兰，库尔德工人党原总书记，1978年11月28日，奥贾兰成立了库尔德工人党。1999年2月15日，他在非洲被土特工拘捕并押送回国。至此，其一直被土耳其政府囚禁至今。

2025年2月27日，土耳其议会第三大党、亲库尔德人的人民平等与民主党举行新闻发布会，并通过电视直播，先后用库尔德语和土耳其语宣读了被关押在伊姆拉勒岛监狱的库尔德工人党领导人阿卜杜拉·厄贾兰的亲笔信。厄贾兰在信中明确提出“库尔德工人党应召开大会并宣布自行解散”，并呼吁所有武装团体都应放下武器。

值得注意的是，库尔德工人党尚未公开回应厄贾兰的表态。库区主席内奇尔万·巴尔扎尼在2月27日表示，全力支持这一和平进程，愿意协助推动后续和谈。同日，叙利亚库尔德武装“叙利亚民主力量”（前译“叙利亚民主军”）指挥官马兹卢姆·阿卜迪同样对厄贾兰的呼吁表示欢迎。但他指出，厄贾兰关于放下武器的指示仅针对土境内的库尔德工人党，与叙利亚的库尔德武装无关。

众所周知，叙利亚库尔德武装“叙利亚民主力量”是美国在叙利亚豢养的恐怖分子组织，实力不容小觑。如果连他们也一并放下武器并解散，则意味着美国彻底退出叙利亚，甚至彻底退出中东。所以，叙利亚库尔德武装“叙利亚民主力量”指挥官马兹卢姆·阿卜迪明确表示，厄贾兰关于放下武器的指示仅针对土境内的库尔德工人党，与叙利亚的库尔德武装无关，我们并不感到奇怪。当然，库尔德人问题从来都是中东问题中一个较为敏感的分支，值得大家密切关注。

●仍然强调，不要把泽连斯基将美国完全对立，所以，这一争吵既可能是“真的”，也可能是“假的”

其次，我们来关注一下闹得沸沸扬扬的美乌总统白宫“吵架”的新闻报道。

据媒体报道，美国总统特朗普与泽连斯基2月28日在华盛顿举行的会晤演变成了一场争论。据美国媒体报道，冲突发生后，特朗普感到不受尊重，将泽连斯基“赶”了出去。华盛顿与基辅之间稀土金属交易的签署被取消。

在我们看来，美乌总统“吵架”的画面能够放出，本身就是一个奇迹。当然，我们仍然强调，不要把泽连斯基将美国完全对立，所以，这一争吵既可能是“真的”，也可能是“假的”。

在乌克兰问题上，欧美之间的确存在矛盾和分歧，所以，特朗普和泽连斯基的“吵架”至少对外释放了“特朗普很不爽，美国可能随时在乌克兰问题上‘撂挑子’”的强烈信号。这对于欧盟，当然，对俄罗斯来讲，都是一种压力。对于欧盟来说，欧洲的安全没有美国的支持是不可想象的；对于俄罗斯来说，特朗普给出的乌克兰停火协议绝对是“过了这个村，就没了那个店”！

此外，我们也注意到了有网友认为泽连斯基和特朗普如此吵嘴的背后一定有欧盟鼎力相助的观点。我们认为，表面上看似乎是这样的，但实际上，所谓“欧洲不顾一切支持泽连斯基”反而是有些发假，因为欧洲没有这样的能力。所以，在这背后的真相是，要么美国在乌克兰问题上“撂挑子”是假的，要么“欧洲不顾一切支持泽连斯基”是假的。但有一点可以肯定，欧美之间还远未到发生“公开争吵”的地步。对特朗普政府来说，其需要借用欧盟在乌克兰问题上间接对俄罗斯施压，敦促其尽快签署“乌克兰和平协议”。对欧盟来说，需要借美国的掩护向乌克兰派遣“欧洲维和部队”并保证能在瓜分乌克兰的过程中分杯羹。

总的来说，目前各方中，特朗普政府的压力是最大的，这当然源于美国内斗“只有更激烈，没有最激烈”。有消息称，除了重提“MH370事件”外，特朗普还叫嚣公布“911事件”的“真相”。此外还有洛马“F-35”的“最大零部件供应商是中国”这个传说炒得额沸沸扬扬。

接下来，如果特朗普政府始终不能利诱威逼俄罗斯同意签署“乌克兰和平协议”，恐怕特朗普政府就真的坐蜡了，届时，美国内部“特朗普们”的仇家们反攻倒算是非常有可能的。如果真是这样，也就是特朗普不能将“蛋糕”做大，那就只能寻求内部妥协，比如，继续让俄乌战争持续下去。所以，特朗普对俄罗斯施压，除了借欧盟之力外，还有一个层面，那就是让俄乌战争继续下去。也就是说，特朗普明确向俄罗斯发出信号，如果特朗普和“特朗普们”因“卖国”（采取了近乎“投降”对俄罗斯示好）被“斗倒”，俄罗斯什么也别想得到。

●在乌克兰问题上，不排除基于美、欧、俄各自后退一步的“折中方案”出现的可能性

我们注意到有俄罗斯专家卢基扬诺夫有关俄罗斯不要幻想与美方的“新恋情”的相关言论。

显然，在俄罗斯社会内部对俄美关系应如何发展，存在较大争议。相当一部分人，包括俄罗斯的政要在内认为，在明斯克协议问题上俄罗斯上过当，受过骗。所以，卢基扬诺夫的言论也算是俄罗斯对特朗普政府敦促其签署“乌克兰和平协议”的一种回应。但是，政治人物总是讲究现实和讲究利益的，对于俄罗斯决策层最后如何选择，我们仍无法确定。

在我们的观察与评估中，不排除基于美、欧、俄各自后退一步的“折中方案”出现的可能性。美、欧、俄三方都知道所谓“乌克兰和平协议”是临时性质的，但僵持下去总归不是办法，各取所需，各撤一步，从长计议或是不错的主意。这样一来，对特朗来说，可以拿着这份“乌克兰和平协议”访问中国，俄罗斯拿下东乌对国内也算有个交代，欧洲则变相进入了乌克兰并确保自己可以在。瓜分乌克兰的过程中分到一杯羹。

●美，欧，俄无论怎么玩，合纵连横也好，远交近攻也罢，中国手里始终扣着一张底牌，那就是视情况而定，随时武装收台！

3月1日，我们注意到，对于美国和乌克兰总统在白宫会谈时发生激烈争吵一事，日本首相石破茂表示“意外”的新闻报道。

在我们看来，日本首相石破茂看似说得轻松，恐怕内心早已在不断“打鼓”了。虽然我们说欧美之间还没有发展到“公开争吵”的地步，但说再度出现“公开争吵”的迹象则毫不为过。日本极右看到这样一个正走向分崩离析的西方阵营，一个内乱的无以复加的美国和一个强大的无以复加的中国，心里不慌才怪呢。

其中首要一点就在于日本的安全几乎完全仗“西太安全框架”。不难想象的是，如果真的有一天局势发展到欧美“公开争吵”且北约因此倾覆的地步，作为西方世界霸权，尤其是经济霸权在传统安全层面的“两大支柱”之一的“西太安全框架”必然独木难支。而没有“西太安全框架”的支撑，日本不仅安全无从保障，更没有任何可以与中国继续讨价还价的筹码。由于中国坚持原则，日本不同意中国对福岛核污染水进行“飞检”（当然宣布永远停止排放核污染水也可以），结果石破茂原本想要将首访放在中国的企图未能实现。结果石破茂被迫将首访放在了美国，结果面对这样一个西太，这样一个美国，日本就更没有筹码和中国谈了（值得一提的是，第一次日本耍小聪明没有得逞，第二次则不得不同意中国检查福岛第一核电站内没有稀释的核污染水，甚至上岸的水产品，显然，第二次中方的要求要比第一次要严格得多。讽刺的是，石破茂访美什么也没有得到，于是借安倍晋三这个“死鬼”狠狠恶心了一把美国）。

退一步说，就算欧美之间还没有发展到“公开争吵”的地步，北约仍然“健在”，但“西太安全框架”也在剧烈摇晃，随时可能坍塌。在日本极右看来，就算澳大利亚没想到PLA能如此大迂回，大穿插，直接威胁自己的安全，问题在于，美国人呢？难道也没想到？战略预警在哪里？对澳大利亚的军事支援又在哪里？

需要再次强调的是，美，欧，俄无论怎么玩，合纵连横也好，远交近攻也罢，中国手里始终扣着一张底牌，那就是视情况而定，随时武装收台！恰恰这个时候PLA在台湾周边大规模演习，尤其是演习地点距离台湾本岛40海里，是典型两栖登陆作战的攻击阵位。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Saturday, March 1, 2025, Issue No. 1192

Is the "Heated Argument" Between the US and Ukrainian Presidents at the White House Real or Fake? What Political Signals Does it Convey?

[Media Coverage]

On March 1, US President Trump stated that he is willing to resume dialogue with Zelenskyy if the latter stops criticizing Russian leader Putin and clearly expresses a desire for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The meeting between US President Trump and Zelenskyy in Washington on February 28 turned into a debate. According to US media reports, after the conflict, Trump felt disrespected and "kicked" Zelenskyy out. The signing of a rare earth metals deal between Washington and Kyiv was canceled.

【Discussion Summary】

● The Syrian Kurdish militia "Syrian Democratic Forces" is a terrorist organization nurtured by the US in Syria<

First, let's take a look at some of the latest developments in the situation in Syria.

On February 27, after the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan, who is imprisoned by the Turkish government, issued a "ceasefire" statement, Turkish officials demanded on February 28 that all Kurdish militias associated with this organization in Syria and Iraq also lay down their arms and announce their dissolution. On March 1, a French media outlet reported that if the PKK declares a ceasefire with the Turkish government, it will end more than 40 years of bloody conflict.

From the content reported by the French media, it seems that the bloody conflict between the Kurds and Turkey, which has lasted for more than 40 years, is about to end. However, the real situation is probably not the case.

Abdullah Öcalan, the former general secretary of the PKK, founded the PKK on November 28, 1978. On February 15, 1999, he was arrested by Turkish agents in Africa and deported back to Turkey. Since then, he has been imprisoned by the Turkish government.

On February 27, 2025, the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), the third-largest party in the Turkish parliament and a pro-Kurdish party, held a press conference, which was broadcast live on television, and read out a letter in both Kurdish and Turkish from Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the PKK who is imprisoned on Imrali Island. In the letter, Öcalan clearly proposed that "the PKK should convene a congress and宣布 its self-dissolution," and called on all armed groups to lay down their arms.

It is worth noting that the PKK has not publicly responded to Öcalan's statement. On February 27, Nechirvan Barzani, the President of the Kurdistan Region, expressed full support for this peace process and willingness to assist in promoting subsequent peace talks. On the same day, Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the Syrian Kurdish militia "Syrian Democratic Forces" (formerly translated as "Syrian Democratic Army"), also welcomed Öcalan's call. However, he pointed out that Öcalan's instruction to lay down arms only applies to the PKK within Turkey and has nothing to do with the Kurdish militias in Syria.

As we all know, the Syrian Kurdish militia "Syrian Democratic Forces" is a terrorist organization nurtured by the US in Syria, with considerable strength. If they also lay down their arms and dissolve, it would mean that the US has completely withdrawn from Syria, or even the Middle East. Therefore, it is not surprising that Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the Syrian Kurdish militia "Syrian Democratic Forces," clearly stated that Öcalan's instruction to lay down arms only applies to the PKK within Turkey and has nothing to do with the Kurdish militias in Syria. Of course, the Kurdish issue has always been a sensitive branch of the Middle East issue, which deserves close attention from everyone.

●We still emphasize that Zelenskyy should not be seen as completely opposed to the US, so this quarrel could be both "real" and "fake."

Next, let's focus on the news reports about the heated "quarrel" between the US and Ukrainian presidents at the White House.

According to media reports, the meeting between US President Trump and Zelenskyy in Washington on February 28th turned into an argument. According to US media, after the conflict, Trump felt disrespected and "kicked" Zelenskyy out. The signing of a rare earth metals deal between Washington and Kyiv was canceled.

In our view, the fact that footage of the "quarrel" between the US and Ukrainian presidents was released is a miracle in itself. Of course, we still emphasize that Zelenskyy should not be seen as completely opposed to the US, so this quarrel could be both "real" and "fake."

On the issue of Ukraine, there are indeed contradictions and differences between Europe and the US. Therefore, the "quarrel" between Trump and Zelenskyy at least sends a strong signal externally that "Trump is very unhappy, and the US may 'abandon' the Ukraine issue at any time." This is a source of pressure for both the EU and Russia. For the EU, European security is unimaginable without US support; for Russia, the ceasefire agreement for Ukraine proposed by Trump is definitely a "one-time offer"!

In addition, we have noticed that some netizens believe that behind Zelenskyy and Trump's quarrel, there must be strong support from the EU. We believe that on the surface, it may seem that way, but in reality, the so-called "Europe's desperate support for Zelenskyy" is somewhat unconvincing because Europe does not have such capability. Therefore, the truth behind this is that either the US "abandoning" the Ukraine issue is fake, or "Europe's desperate support for Zelenskyy" is fake. However, one thing is certain: Europe and the US are far from reaching the point of "public quarrels." For the Trump administration, it needs to use the EU to indirectly pressure Russia on the Ukraine issue and urge it to sign the "Ukraine Peace Agreement" as soon as possible. For the EU, it needs to use the cover of the US to send "European peacekeeping forces" to Ukraine and ensure that it can get a share in the process of dividing up Ukraine.

Overall, among all parties, the Trump administration is under the greatest pressure, which of course stems from the intense internal strife in the US, "only getting more intense, never the most intense." It is reported that in addition to revisiting the "MH370 incident," Trump is also threatening to reveal the "truth" behind the "9/11 incident." Furthermore, there is a rumor that the "largest component supplier" for Lockheed Martin's "F-35" is China, which has caused quite a stir.

Next, if the Trump administration cannot persuade or coerce Russia into agreeing to sign the "Ukraine Peace Agreement," the Trump administration may find itself in a difficult position. At that time, it is very possible that Trump's enemies within the US will launch a counterattack. If this happens, meaning Trump cannot make the "pie" bigger, he may have to seek internal compromises, such as continuing to let the Russia-Ukraine war drag on. Therefore, in addition to using the EU's power, Trump is also pressuring Russia by signaling that if Trump and his allies are "overthrown" for "treason" (by adopting a nearly "surrendering" attitude to appease Russia), Russia will get nothing.

●On the issue of Ukraine, we cannot rule out the possibility of a "compromise solution" where the US, Europe, and Russia each take a step back.

We have noticed the relevant remarks made by Russian expert Lukyanov about Russia not fantasizing about a "new romance" with the US.

Obviously, there is considerable controversy within Russian society about how Russia-US relations should develop. A considerable number of people, including Russian politicians, believe that Russia has been deceived on the issue of the Minsk Agreement. Therefore, Lukyanov's remarks can also be seen as Russia's response to the Trump administration's urging it to sign the "Ukraine Peace Agreement." However, politicians always emphasize reality and interests, so we are still unable to determine how the Russian decision-makers will ultimately choose.

In our observation and assessment, we cannot rule out the possibility of a "compromise solution" where the US, Europe, and Russia each take a step back. All three parties, the US, Europe, and Russia, know that the so-called "Ukraine Peace Agreement" is temporary, but a stalemate is not a solution. It might be a good idea to get what each wants, take a step back, and consider the long-term perspective. In this way, Trump can use the "Ukraine Peace Agreement" as a tool during his visit to China, Russia can give an explanation to its domestic audience by taking control of eastern Ukraine, and Europe can indirectly enter Ukraine and ensure that it can get a share in the process of dividing up Ukraine.

Regardless of how the US, Europe, and Russia play their games, whether through alliances or distant alliances and near attacks, China always holds a trump card: to armedly reclaim Taiwan based on the situation!

On March 1st, we noticed news reports stating that Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru expressed "surprise" at the heated argument that occurred during the meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents at the White House.

In our view, while Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru may have appeared nonchalant, he was likely extremely anxious inside. Although we haven't seen the US and Europe reach the point of "public quarrels," it's not an exaggeration to say that signs of "public quarrels" reemerging are evident. Japanese far-right elements are undoubtedly panicked when they see a Western camp that is falling apart, a US mired in internal chaos, and an increasingly powerful China.

The primary concern is that Japan's security almost entirely relies on the "West Pacific Security Framework." It's not hard to imagine that if the situation develops to the point where the US and Europe engage in "public quarrels" and NATO collapses as a result, the "West Pacific Security Framework," one of the "two pillars" of Western hegemony, especially economic hegemony, in the traditional security realm, will surely be unable to stand alone. Without the support of the "West Pacific Security Framework," not only will Japan's security be unguaranteed, but it will also lose any bargaining chips it has with China. Due to China's adherence to principles, Japan disagreed with China's "on-site inspection" of Fukushima's contaminated water (of course, announcing a permanent halt to discharging contaminated water would also suffice), leading to Ishiba Shigeru's initial plan to make China his first foreign visit destination unfulfilled. As a result, Ishiba Shigeru was forced to make the US his first stop. Faced with such a West Pacific and such a US, Japan has even fewer bargaining chips with China. (It's worth mentioning that Japan tried to be clever the first time but had to agree to China's inspection of undiluted contaminated water at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant and even seafood that has come ashore the second time. Obviously, China's requirements the second time were much stricter than the first. Ironically, Ishiba Shigeru gained nothing from his visit to the US and took the opportunity to use the late Abe Shinzo to give the US a nasty shock.)

Even if the US and Europe haven't reached the point of "public quarrels" and NATO remains "intact," the "West Pacific Security Framework" is also shaking violently and could collapse at any moment. In the eyes of Japanese far-right elements, even if Australia didn't expect the PLA to make such a large-scale detour and penetration, directly threatening their security, the question is, what about the Americans? Where is their strategic early warning? Where is their military support for Australia?

It needs to be emphasized again that regardless of how the US, Europe, and Russia play their games, whether through alliances or distant alliances and near attacks, China always holds a trump card: to armedly reclaim Taiwan based on the situation! At this very moment, the PLA is conducting large-scale exercises around Taiwan, particularly in locations 40 nautical miles from the Taiwan mainland, which are typical attack formations for amphibious landing operations.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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