2025年2月21日，星期五，第1185期

2月20日，反中乱港组织香港“民主党”今日宣布解散。

【媒体报道】

2月20日，反中乱港组织香港“民主党”今日宣布解散。

【讨论纪要】

●军队向前进，生产长一寸。加强纪律性，革命无不胜！

在上次的讨论中，我们和大家首次讨论了，在美国拉着俄罗斯，欧盟拉着中国围绕乌克兰问题与叙利亚问题，摆下两张“麻将桌”之外，在特朗普政府的“精心安排”下，美、欧、俄、印等为制衡中国，有意在中国周边地区摆上第三张“麻将桌”。地点可能选在巴基斯坦。操作手段是“取其上，得其中”。着眼点在台湾问题上（“取其上，得其中”中的“取其上”），而着手点在南海问题或南亚问题上（“取其上，得其中”中的“得其下”）。

“台湾问题”归属于“三独问题”“三独”主要指“台独”“疆独”和“藏独”，后来，将“港独”也归入其中。恰好在2月20日，反中乱港组织香港“民主党”今日宣布解散。

大家知道，香港一向是境内外反华势力的大本营之一，尤其是美国和英国。香港地区间谍、特务云集，素有“谍报天堂”之称。值得一提的是，从反中乱港组织香港“民主党”的成立、发展过程来看，原来我国的香港政策存在一定问题，倾向于和所谓“香港的上层”打交道，尤其在十八大之前。十八大之后，我国调整了原有的香港政策，效果明显，尤其在港版国安法出台之后。尽管香港最高法院还被美西方所掌握，但目前香港法律的最终解释权却在全国人大。在此前提下，如果香港最高法院继续我行我素、胡作非为，中国政府有权将其废除。

从此不难看出，在香港问题上，政权很重要，军权更重要。值得一提的是，当年围绕中国人民解放军驻军香港的问题，中英双方是较量过的。也就有了英国人在最终被迫答应中国人民解放军驻军香港后说的那句经典：如果我们不坚持到最后怎么知道你们一定不会答应（中国人民解放军无权驻港）。在“港独”分子最嚣张的那段日子，之所以他们最终未能得手，就在于有驻港部队起到的重要的“兜底”作用。由此可见，军事力量非常关键。而1999年中国驻南联盟大使馆被炸，炸醒了很多中国人，其中一条就是让他们深刻认识到，在关键时刻，军事力量的极端重要性，光发展经济是没用的，经济发展和军事建设，二者相辅相成，不可偏废。引用毛主席的一句话就是：军队向前进，生产长一寸。加强纪律性，革命无不胜。

也因为今天中国在经济发展与军事国防建设方面取得的巨大成就，一个有强大经济实力，尤其是制造业做支撑的中国军工科技，武器装备呈现爆炸式发展趋势；而强大的国防建设和军事力量又成为我国经济继续发展，产业转型、升级的最终保障。这也成为中华人民共和国常驻联合国副代表、特命全权大使耿爽在1月16日进行安理会审议乌克兰问题时做出“如果中国真的向俄罗斯提供军事补给，战场的局势就不会是今天这个样子了”之经典发言的最有力的依仗。

●特朗普的言行与昔日的纳粹德国元首希特勒越来越像

让我们将讨论的焦点转回到开篇提到的在美国的“精心安排”下，美，欧，俄，印等国，有意在中国周边地区摆“第三桌麻将”的话题上。特朗普政府之所以要这样做，首要目的仍在于尽可能通过在对华、对欧、对俄三方关系中寻找“最大公约数”，为进一步执行“攘外必先安内”政策打开操作空间。

在继续展开相关讨论前，我们再来看一则新闻报道。

2月20日，美国交通部在致纽约州州长凯西·霍赫尔的一封信中表示，将终止与该州在2024年11月达成的协议。据一位知情人士透露，此前特朗普总统至少两次与霍赫尔就结束该项目进行了交谈。白宫在某社交平台官方账号发帖称，拥堵收费已死。曼哈顿和整个纽约都得救了。国王万岁！并配了一张特朗普头戴王冠的图片。

特朗普政府这样做完全出于“政治正确”。也就是说，只要是拜登政府留下的政策，特朗普政府就有理由加以反对。美国总统特朗普更是表示，正在考虑将马斯克领导的政府效率部削减开支节省资金的20%发给美国纳税人。显然，这是公开的贿赂与“买选票”。美国上上下下都发现特朗普的言行与昔日的纳粹德国元首希特勒越来越像。显然，特朗普已经开始谋划4年后的自己，也就是2029年1月20日后的自己如何确保“绝对安全”。

无独有偶，美国总统特朗普当地时间20日在华盛顿参加一场活动时表示，他打算前往肯塔基州诺克斯堡，视察这里的黄金储备情况。

众所周知，在美国肯塔基州最大城市路易斯维尔市西南约50公里处的诺克斯堡，四周由起伏丘陵和茂密丛林环绕。诺克斯堡金银储存库是为美国政府存储贵金属储备，该设施严禁访客进入，且有重兵把守，即便美国总统也不能轻易进入。在美国历史上，除了罗斯福和杜鲁门，再没有美国其他政治人物进入，俨然美国内部的“国中之国”。值得一提的是，特朗普在第一任期时的财长姆努钦曾经想要进入诺克斯堡金库，但最终被阻拦未能进入，这或意味着特朗普在那个时候就已经盯上这里了的黄金。

●如果最终真的有直接证据证明诺克斯堡的黄金变成了“钨金”，绝对是“兹事体大”

相关资料显示，诺克斯堡至少存放了美国至少一半的黄金储备。除了美国自有的约8133吨黄金外，还有来自其他国家大约7000吨黄金‌。这几乎占了全世界黄金总量的将近一半（民间不计算在内）。

在我们的观察中，对于早已进入金融资本主义阶段的美国的金融资本家们而言，是绝不会让这些黄金静静地存放在“番库”中的，因为单纯的黄金是不产生任何额外利润的。想要让这些黄金成为“钱生钱”的工具，首先就要让其“流动”起来，这也就意味着，诺克斯堡的金库中大概率没有对外宣传中那么多的现货黄金。甚至，当大量现货黄金作为金融衍生品交易的抵押物转手后，根本无法重新归位，甚至出现了“以钨代金”充数的传闻。此外，多方也对外国储存在美国的黄金到底还在不在持质疑态度，否则，为什么英格兰银行会出现黄金挤兑现象？

此前我们讨论过有关特朗普限制马斯克的话题。在我们看来，这或是“特朗普们”和“拜登们”就“内部矛盾”（首先是代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益）准备达成或已经部分达成某种交易的具体表现。作为马斯克要查账美联储，甚至诺克斯堡之一“求其上得其中”的博弈阶段性成果，特朗普的“查账”终于进入五角大楼内部。最新消息显示，美防长赫格塞思正在指示美国各大军种列出可供削减的清单，这些资金将用于与总统特朗普的优先事项“相符的项目”。

在我们看来，这种交易大致可能的内容包括但不局限于，“特朗普们”可以去“查账”五角大楼，但保证不去“查账”美国财政部、美联储和诺克斯堡的金库。当然，在美国外部，特朗普政府要通过逼迫北约成员国提高军费也给他的“敌人们”和“朋友们”不遗余力的做大“蛋糕”。值得一提的是，美国国防部从来就是美国新老军工复合体争斗的焦点。

值得一提的是，“布雷顿森林体系”崩溃的那么快就与黄金密切相关。如果最终真的有直接证据证明诺克斯堡的黄金变成了“钨金”，绝对是“兹事体大”——不仅意味着美元体系会瞬间崩塌；“马斯克们”“特朗普们”心心念之的比特币、“X币”取代美元，继续在“X帝国”维持世界霸权的计划就将付诸东流。所以，“特朗普们”和“拜登们”都知道，匹兹堡查不得，否则就是鱼死网破，两败俱伤。从后来五角大楼终于接受“查账”的情况来看，似乎真正惧怕鱼死网破，两败俱伤的反而是“拜登们”，虽然在行政层面他们是光脚的，但利益却是绑定在一起的。

●南亚问题为什么会成为特朗普政府最有可能“落笔”之处？

美国内部“恶斗”如此剧烈，催促特朗普政府必须在对外政策上不断尝试在对华、对欧、对俄关系中寻求“最大公约数”。在继续展开讨论前，我们来看一条新闻报道。

2月19日，美国国务院发言人塔米·布鲁斯表示，美国与我们的菲律宾盟友站在一起，谴责中国人民解放军海军在斯卡伯勒礁（黄岩岛）附近干扰菲律宾的海事空中行动的不安全且不负责任的行为。当菲律宾渔业和水产资源局的一架飞机在进行例行飞越时，一架中国直升机进入距离该机三米的范围内，危及飞机及其机组人员的安全。在这次事件发生之前，中国于2月11日进行的另一次不安全且不专业的操作危及一架在南中国海进行例行海事巡逻的澳大利亚飞机的安全。

中国此类罔顾后果的行为对南中国海的航行和飞越构成威胁，我们将继续支持我们的盟友及合作伙伴，确保印太地区的自由和开放。我们呼吁中国不要采取胁迫行动，并根据国际法以和平方式解决争端。

特朗普政府在不断尝试在对华、对欧、对俄关系中寻求“最大公约数”的问题上再次进行调整，调整的脉络与我们评估的方向大致一致：台湾问题是不能动的，但可以将其作为调整的“支点”，而文章落笔在南亚问题上或南海问题上。显然，在此前南亚方向因特朗普政府公开干涉巴基斯坦内政，敦促巴基斯坦当局释放巴基斯坦前总理伊姆兰·汗之后，南海方向，美国人也有了新动作。

正所谓“敌不动，我不动。敌欲动，我先动”。在我们的观察与评估中，中国外交部发言人在2月19日外交部例行记者会上，针对英国媒体记者挑出的越南在南沙群岛的柏礁（越南非法侵占）开展非法建设活动一事进行回应，就是在美国在南海问题上又有“小动作”的背景下，在“第一时间”敲打越南。

有趣的是，针对英国媒体记者在这样一个节骨眼儿上，在越南非法侵占柏礁问题上“带节奏”，妄图在南海问题上配合美国挑拨是非，中方的应对则是“将计就计”——正好我方认为有必要敲打越南，但又没有太好的借口。言外之意就是，警告越南当局，不要认为美国人再次跳出了就有了靠山，进而在南海问题上再生非分之想！否则，刚刚签署的越南北部连接到中越边境的铁路项目恐怕就此作废！

到目前为止，越南当局没有公开高调呼应美国在南海问题上的“小动作”，如果持续一段时间越南当局依然低调应对，这意味着中国对越南在南海问题上进行了有效压制。如果越南不掺和，只是菲律宾，美国人恐怕也掀不起什么大浪。在东方时事解读一贯评估中，越南是在南海问题上唯一能给中国“找麻烦”的国家。

对于中国的手段，特朗普政府自然看在眼里。既然南海问题上不容易得手，那么就只能在南亚问题上再做文章。或者说，在美国人眼中，基于“取其上得其中”，原本想的是以台湾问题为“支点”，在南海问题上做文章。但现在中国在南海问题上也不答应（压住了越南），那就只能以南海问题为“支点”，寻求在南亚问题上做文章了。值得一提的是，如果俄罗斯做得太过分了，在南海问题上也可能导致中俄战略互信的实质性解体，类似台湾问题。所以，在美国人看来，在南海问题上迫使或诱骗俄罗斯就范难度太大。于是，退而求其次，在南亚问题上谋求实质性瓦解中俄战略互信可操作性要大得多。别的不说，南亚就有俄罗斯的切实利益，比如，围绕“苏-57”展开的对印军售项目，俄罗斯现在急需一笔资金启动和升级国内的“苏-57”生产线。再加上一个根深蒂固的“阿富汗政策小九九”所在的阿富汗（中亚国家）。也许大家也注意到了，这几天印度在阿富汗问题上空前活跃（印度近期尝到了甜头，不仅有俄罗斯伸过来的橄榄枝，还有美国人的。也就是“苏-57”和“F-35”），以至于在2021年8月底9月初美军从阿富汗撤军后，时隔几年，阿富汗“妖风再起”（阿富汗国内政治生态出现不利于国际社会的新变化）。

需要补充的是，特朗普政府之所以将文章落笔在南亚，除了上述几个原因，第一，中国在南海问题上也是咬死不放；第二，美国想要在南海问题上拉俄罗斯形成“南亚破局”难度太高（如果是类似帮越南打油，买军火这样的事情，中国会将其放在“瓮城效应”中处理；如果是类似美国撑腰菲律宾在南海问题上挑衅中国，比如撑腰越南在南海问题上挑衅中国，中国会立刻与俄罗斯翻脸，对此俄罗斯没有胆量去做）之外，再有第三个原因就是中亚地区到南亚地区有太多变数，可做文章的点很多，比如，印度，尚未被联合国、俄罗斯公开承认的阿富汗临时政府，在中俄关系或紧密，或疏远之间反复游移不定的中亚五国，以及此前我们提到过的在伊朗当局继续运行在“投降主义”路线下可能产生的，成为西方对中亚、南亚进一步渗透、施加影响的“伊朗通道”。如果俄罗斯在以上讨论的内容上持默认态度，甚至暗中推动，进而在一定程度上配合特朗普政府，那么，目前处于“暂时冻结”状态的“南亚破局”进程将正式“解冻”。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Friday, February 21, 2025, Issue No. 1185

On February 20, the anti-China and pro-Hong Kong chaos organization, the Hong Kong "Democratic Party," announced its dissolution.

[Media Coverage]

On February 20, the anti-China and pro-Hong Kong chaos organization, the Hong Kong "Democratic Party," announced its dissolution.

【Discussion Summary】

● "The army advances, production increases by one inch. Strengthen discipline, and the revolution will be unstoppable!"

In our previous discussion, we explored how the U.S. is pulling Russia, and the EU is pulling China, surrounding the issues of Ukraine and Syria, setting up two "mahjong tables." Additionally, under the "careful arrangement" of the Trump administration, the U.S., Europe, Russia, India, and other countries intend to set up a third "mahjong table" in China's neighboring regions. The location could be Pakistan, with the strategy being "take the upper, get the lower." The focus is on the Taiwan issue ("take the upper") and the starting point is the South China Sea or South Asian issues ("get the lower").

The "Taiwan issue" falls under the "Three Independences" ("Three Separatists"), primarily referring to "Taiwan independence," "Xinjiang independence," and "Tibetan independence." Later, "Hong Kong independence" was also included. Coincidentally, on February 20, the anti-China and pro-Hong Kong chaos organization, the Hong Kong "Democratic Party," announced its dissolution.

As you know, Hong Kong has long been one of the strongholds of anti-China forces, both domestically and internationally, especially the United States and the United Kingdom. Hong Kong has been a hub for spies and agents, earning it the nickname "Paradise of Spies." It is worth noting that, from the establishment and development process of the anti-China and pro-Hong Kong chaos organization, the Hong Kong "Democratic Party," it can be seen that China's previous Hong Kong policy had certain issues, leaning towards dealings with the so-called "Hong Kong elite," especially before the 18th Party Congress. After the 18th Party Congress, China adjusted its Hong Kong policy, with significant effects, especially after the implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law. Although the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal is still controlled by Western forces, the final interpretation of Hong Kong law now rests with the National People's Congress. Under this premise, if the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal continues to act recklessly, the Chinese government has the authority to abolish it.

From this, it is clear that in Hong Kong affairs, political power is important, but military power is even more crucial. It is worth mentioning that during the negotiations between China and the UK over the stationing of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in Hong Kong, both sides engaged in a struggle. This led to the classic statement by the British: "If we hadn't insisted until the end, how would we know you wouldn't agree (that the PLA has no right to be stationed in Hong Kong)?" During the peak of the "Hong Kong independence" movement, the reason they ultimately failed was due to the crucial "safety net" role of the PLA troops stationed in Hong Kong. This highlights the extreme importance of military power. The bombing of the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999 was a wake-up call for many Chinese people, making them deeply aware that, in critical moments, military power is extremely important. Economic development alone is useless; economic growth and military construction must complement each other and cannot be neglected. As Chairman Mao said, "The army advances, production increases by one inch. Strengthen discipline, and the revolution will be unstoppable!"

Because of the significant achievements China has made today in economic development and national defense construction, coupled with strong economic power, especially the support of manufacturing, China's military-industrial technology is experiencing explosive growth in weapons and equipment. At the same time, strong national defense and military power have become the ultimate guarantee for China's continued economic development and industrial transformation and upgrading. This also serves as the strongest support for the classic statement made by Geng Shuang, Deputy Permanent Representative and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of the People's Republic of China to the United Nations, during the Security Council meeting on the Ukraine issue on January 16: "If China really provided military supplies to Russia, the situation on the battlefield would not be what it is today."

● "Trump's actions are becoming more and more like those of Hitler, the former Nazi German leader."

Let us shift our focus back to the topic mentioned earlier: under the "careful arrangement" of the United States, the U.S., Europe, Russia, India, and other countries intend to set up a "third mahjong table" in China's neighboring regions. The Trump administration's primary goal in doing so is to find the "greatest common divisor" in its relations with China, Europe, and Russia, creating operational space for further implementing its "secure the homeland first" policy.

Before continuing the discussion, let's look at another piece of news.

On February 20, the U.S. Department of Transportation sent a letter to New York Governor Kathy Hochul, stating that it would terminate the agreement reached with the state in November 2024. According to a source, former President Trump had at least two discussions with Hochul about ending the project. The White House posted on its official social media account, "Congestion pricing is dead. Manhattan and all of New York are saved! Long live the king!" accompanied by a photo of Trump wearing a crown.

The Trump administration took this action entirely out of "political correctness." In other words, any policy left by the Biden administration gives the Trump administration a reason to oppose it. U.S. President Trump has even stated that he is considering cutting 20% of the budget from the government efficiency department led by Musk and giving the savings to American taxpayers. This is clearly an outright bribe and "vote-buying." Americans, both in and out of power, have noticed that Trump's words and actions are becoming more and more like those of Hitler, the former Nazi German leader. Clearly, Trump has already begun planning for his own "absolute safety" after January 20, 2029.

Interestingly, U.S. President Trump announced on February 20 that he plans to visit Fort Knox, Kentucky, to inspect the gold reserves there.

As is well-known, Fort Knox, located about 50 kilometers southwest of Louisville, the largest city in Kentucky, is surrounded by rolling hills and dense forests. The Fort Knox Bullion Depository is a facility used by the U.S. government to store precious metal reserves, and it is strictly off-limits to visitors, heavily guarded. Even the U.S. President cannot easily enter. In U.S. history, only Roosevelt and Truman, among other political figures, have entered Fort Knox, making it an "state within a state." It is worth noting that during Trump's first term, his Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, wanted to enter the Fort Knox vault but was ultimately blocked. This may indicate that Trump had already set his sights on the gold reserves there at the time.

● If there is finally direct evidence proving that the gold in Fort Knox has turned into "tungsten gold," it will be a "major event."

According to available information, Fort Knox holds at least half of the United States' gold reserves. In addition to the approximately 8,133 tons of gold owned by the U.S., there are around 7,000 tons of gold from other countries. This amount accounts for nearly half of the world's total gold reserves (excluding private holdings).

In our observation, for the financial capitalists in the U.S., who have long entered the stage of financial capitalism, they would never allow this gold to sit idly in the "vault." Pure gold does not generate any additional profits. To make this gold become a tool for "making money," it must first be put into "circulation." This implies that the actual amount of physical gold in Fort Knox is likely far less than what is publicly claimed. In fact, when a large amount of physical gold is used as collateral for financial derivative transactions, it becomes impossible to reposition it, leading to rumors that tungsten is being used to replace gold. Additionally, there are doubts about whether the gold stored in the U.S. on behalf of other countries still exists, as evidenced by the gold repatriation requests from countries like Germany and the gold rush phenomenon at the Bank of England.

Previously, we discussed Trump's restrictions on Musk. In our view, this may be a specific manifestation of a transaction between "Trump's faction" and "Biden's faction" regarding "internal contradictions" (primarily representing Western capitalist interests in the U.S.). As part of the phase-by-stage outcome of Musk's audit of the Federal Reserve and Fort Knox, Trump's "audit" has now entered the Pentagon. The latest news shows that U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is directing the various branches of the military to list items that can be cut, with the savings to be used for projects that align with President Trump's priorities.

In our view, the content of such a transaction may include, but is not limited to, allowing "Trump's faction" to audit the Pentagon but ensuring they do not audit the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, or the gold vaults at Fort Knox. Of course, externally, the Trump administration is pressuring NATO member states to increase their military spending, helping his "enemies" and "friends" to enlarge the "cake." It is worth noting that the U.S. Department of Defense has always been a focal point of competition between old and new military-industrial complexes.

It is also worth mentioning that the rapid collapse of the Bretton Woods system is closely related to gold. If there is eventually direct evidence that the gold in Fort Knox has been replaced with "tungsten gold," it will be a "major event"—not only would the dollar system collapse instantly, but plans for "Musk," "Trump," and others to have Bitcoin or "X-coin" replace the dollar and maintain global hegemony under an "X Empire" would also be doomed to fail. Therefore, both "Trump's faction" and "Biden's faction" know that scrutiny of Fort Knox is unthinkable, as it would lead to mutual destruction. However, the fact that the Pentagon has finally agreed to an audit suggests that it is the "Biden faction" that fears mutual destruction the most, even though they may be more exposed administratively, their interests are bound together.

● Why has the South Asia issue become the most likely place for the Trump administration to "take action"?

The intense internal struggles within the U.S. are prompting the Trump administration to seek "greatest common divisors" in its relations with China, Europe, and Russia. Before continuing the discussion, let's look at another piece of news.

On February 19, U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated that the U.S. stands with its ally, the Philippines, in condemning the unsafe and irresponsible actions of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy, which interfered with Philippine maritime aerial operations near Scarborough Shoal (Panatag Shoal). During a routine flight by a plane from the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, a Chinese helicopter entered the vicinity of the aircraft, endangering the safety of the plane and its crew. Prior to this incident, on February 11, China conducted another unsafe and unprofessional operation that endangered an Australian plane conducting routine maritime patrols in the South China Sea.

China's reckless behavior poses a threat to navigation and overflight in the South China Sea. The U.S. will continue to support its allies and partners to ensure the freedom and openness of the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. calls on China to refrain from coercive actions and to resolve disputes peacefully in accordance with international law.

The Trump administration has again adjusted its approach to seeking "greatest common divisors" in its relations with China, Europe, and Russia, consistent with our assessment. While the Taiwan issue is non-negotiable, it can serve as a "fulcrum" for adjustments. The focus of the action shifts to the South China Sea or South Asia issues. Clearly, after the Trump administration openly interfered in Pakistan's internal affairs, urging the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, there have been new developments in the South China Sea direction as well.

As the saying goes, "If the enemy does not move, we do not move. If the enemy wants to move, we move first." In our observation and assessment, when a British journalist raised the issue of Vietnam's illegal construction activities on Pigeon Reef in the Spratly Islands during a routine press conference of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on February 19, the Chinese side responded promptly. This was against the backdrop of new U.S. maneuvers in the South China Sea. The Chinese response was to "use the enemy's plan against them"—it so happened that the Chinese side deemed it necessary to warn Vietnam, despite lacking a good pretext. The implicit message was a warning to the Vietnamese authorities not to think that they have the backing of the U.S. to provoke China on the South China Sea issue.

Interestingly, Vietnam has not openly or high-profile aligned itself with the U.S. on this issue. If Vietnam continues to respond low-key for some time, it would indicate that China has effectively suppressed Vietnam on the South China Sea issue. If Vietnam does not intervene, and only the Philippines and the U.S. are involved, it is unlikely to stir up significant waves. In our consistent assessment at *Dongfang Shibao*, Vietnam is the only country in the South China Sea that can "give China trouble."

The Trump administration naturally sees through China's strategies. Since progress in the South China Sea is difficult, the focus must shift to South Asia. In other words, while initially intending to use the Taiwan issue as the "fulcrum" to make moves in the South China Sea, China's firm stance there (and its pressure on Vietnam) has forced the U.S. to seek other avenues. It is worth noting that if Russia oversteps in the South China Sea, it could lead to a substantive dissolution of China-Russia strategic mutual trust, similar to the Taiwan issue. Therefore, in the U.S.' view, forcing or deceiving Russia into compliance in the South China Sea is too difficult. Hence, it is more feasible to seek substantive dissolution of China-Russia strategic mutual trust in South Asia. Notably, South Asia is home to real Russian interests, such as the "Su-57" arms sales project with India. Additionally, the "Afghan policy tricks" deeply rooted in Afghanistan (a Central Asian nation) play a role. It is likely that everyone has noticed India's unprecedented activity in Afghan affairs recently (India has tasted the sweetness of both Russian overtures and American interests, i.e., the "Su-57" and "F-35").

It is important to add that the Trump administration's focus on South Asia, aside from the aforementioned reasons, is also because: First, China remains resolute on the South China Sea issue. Second, The difficulty of involving Russia in the South China Sea to create a "South Asian breakthrough" is too high (if it involves helping Vietnam or the Philippines provoke China, China will treat it as a "jar effect"; Russia lacks the courage to engage in such actions). Third, The Central Asia to South Asia region has too many variables and points of leverage, such as India, the unrecognized Afghan interim government, the five Central Asian countries wavering between close and distant relations with China and Russia, and the potential "Iranian corridor" for Western infiltration into Central and South Asia under Iran's continued "surrenderist" policies. If Russia adopts a compliant or even covertly supportive stance toward these developments, the "South Asian breakthrough" process, currently in a "frozen" state, will officially be "unfrozen."

In summary, the complex interplay of interests, alliances, and strategies in South Asia makes it a region where the Trump administration can attempt to undermine China's influence, leveraging existing tensions and economic interests to create instability and weaken China-Russia cooperation.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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