2025年2月19日，星期三，第1183期

看似互不相关的两张“麻将桌”如何被基于切实经济利益的“反美帝单边主义，世界大团结万岁”有机联系起来？

【媒体报道】

2月18日，世界贸易组织在瑞士日内瓦召开总理事会2025年度第一次会议。中方主动设置议题，在会议上对美方单边加征关税做法及其恶劣影响表达严重关切，要求美方取消相关做法，并呼吁各方以切实行动维护以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，引发各方强烈共鸣。

2月18日，据美媒报道，当天晚些时候，美国总统特朗普告诉记者，美俄代表“谈得非常好”，同时批评乌克兰总统泽连斯基“开始了”这场流血冲突，敦促乌克兰举行大选。特朗普还称，他“完全不反对”欧洲维和部队驻扎乌克兰。但俄外长拉夫罗夫称此举“不可接受”。

【讨论纪要】

●为了更好和美国人讨价还价，“重提伊朗话题”并提醒美国人“俄伊关系”依然“健在”，还是有必要的

2月18日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫在接受伊朗媒体采访时表示，俄方愿就解决与伊朗核计划相关的问题向伊方提供协助，且所有这些问题应该以谈判方式解决。此外，俄美谈判的启动将不会对俄伊合作产生任何影响。

同一天，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊表示，美国政府将现有的巴勒斯坦人迁出加沙，并把这个满目疮痍的地带重建成海滨度假胜地的计划“愚蠢”且“将一无所获”。

在我们看来，伊朗当局的“投降路线”恐怕已经走到了死路上。世界范围内在谈及中东问题的时候，更多会将目光聚焦在沙特、埃及和土耳其等中东主要地方国家上，唯独忽略了伊朗。相比于埃及媒体高调密集报道埃及军方开始接收中国首批“歼-10CE”战机，伊朗这一方可谓“门前冷落鞍马稀”。

当然，俄罗斯还是为伊朗说了两句话的。

佩斯科夫就俄美一系列密集互动是否会影响俄伊关系简单安抚了一下焦虑的伊朗媒体。佩斯科夫表示，俄美谈判的启动将不会对俄伊合作产生任何影响。

在我们看来，在俄罗斯急于谋求“有效重返”叙利亚之际，作为曾经自己在中东地区施加影响的“重要抓手”之一的伊朗，尽管目前这一“抓手”仅剩“残骸”，但为了更好和美国人讨价还价，“重提伊朗话题”并提醒美国人“俄伊关系”依然“健在”，还是有必要的。

●美国和俄罗斯，中国和欧盟，基于乌克兰问题和中东问题，隔空摆出了两桌儿看似互不相关的“麻将”

2月18日，美国务卿鲁比奥表示，美国和俄罗斯同意恢复驻华盛顿和莫斯科大使馆的人员配置，以组建代表团支持解决乌克兰问题、双边关系和更广泛的合作。

2017年9月1日，美国国务院发表声明称，为实现外交使团的对等，美国要求俄罗斯在9月2日前关闭其驻旧金山总领事馆及位于华盛顿和纽约的两处建筑。而时任美国总统的特朗普（2017年1月20日到2021年1月20日）亲自做出了关闭俄驻旧金山总领馆的决定。

不难看出，当初玩“外交战”的特朗普，横跨一届美国政府（拜登政府）后，与俄罗斯普京政府“相视一笑”——既然“玩法”不对，那就索性“重开罗另开张”好了。之所以美俄双方选择在沙特首都利雅得会晤，就在于双方都盯着叙利亚问题后续发展——俄罗斯一心想要借美国之力“有效重返”，而美国则希望借俄罗斯之力维持自己在中东的存在，一边抗衡欧盟，一边防范中国。于是，双方就默契地共同演绎了一出“乌克兰问题中东谈”的戏码儿。

在我们看来，乌克兰总统泽连斯基称，不排除中国参与乌克兰问题谈判的可能性，这背后是欧盟的意思。也就是说，欧盟有意拉着中国就乌克兰问题“摆一桌儿麻将”。有趣的是，尽管欧盟将乌克兰问题看得很重要，但俄罗斯似乎并不这样认为，近日，俄方明确表示，排除欧洲参与乌克兰问题谈判的可能性。

俄方的决定显然让欧盟很是光火，既然如此，欧盟也摆出一副把俄罗斯排除在任何涉及叙利亚问题之外的架势。言外之意就是，俄罗斯想要“有效重返”叙利亚，欧盟第一个就不答应！与此同时，欧盟还准备拉上美国的最大敌人——中国，就“乌克兰问题中东谈”玩一出反弹琵琶，也就是“中东问题乌克兰谈”。

于是，美国和俄罗斯，中国和欧盟，就这样，基于乌克兰问题和中东问题，隔空摆出了两桌儿看似互不相关的“麻将”。

“不反对”欧洲部署维和部队，但美军不参与——特朗普也在用中欧联合威胁俄罗斯，如果俄罗斯要把欧洲排除在外，要美国帮忙，俄罗斯就要对美国让步。美国务卿鲁比奥甚至称，乌克兰和欧洲将参与“真正的”和谈。美国的意思就是，欧洲要参加要多努力，政治上继续尊美国为盟主，经济上继续交军费，军事上要派维和部队。值得一提的是，俄罗斯就北约进入乌克兰的事情一句否决。但俄罗斯也知道，用不了多久，乌克兰到中东还会再有一座新麻将，就是中欧。

●中国主动注入变量，将原本看上去毫无关联且“太过飘逸”的“两桌儿麻将”有机联系起来，并为其喷涂上意味极其浓厚的“反帝、反霸”色彩

在乌克兰问题上和中东问题上，中国都与之没有直接关系（不是当事方）。中国有可能“入局打牌”是欧盟“诚邀相请”。相比之下，美、欧、俄三方倒是显得有些急不可耐。

在中国看来，在美国内部“恶斗”不断、国际局势后续发展仍具有极强不确定性的背景下谈乌克兰和平问题似乎“太过飘逸”，既然有人喊“三缺一”，非要拉着中国玩麻将，那么“纯玩”就显得有些没意思了，想要各位玩得尽兴，总要带上一点彩头的。

2月18日，世界贸易组织在瑞士日内瓦召开总理事会2025年度第一次会议。中方主动设置议题，在会议上对美方单边加征关税做法及其恶劣影响表达严重关切，要求美方取消相关做法，并呼吁各方以切实行动维护以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，引发各方强烈共鸣——欧盟、加拿大、巴西、俄罗斯等超过30个世贸组织成员发言对美方单边主义做法表达严重关切；加拿大、新西兰、新加坡呼吁，国际社会不应重回强权政治和“丛林法则”时代；挪威、尼加拉瓜表示，贸易战及其引发的不确定性将使依赖国际贸易的中小成员受到严重冲击；巴西、巴基斯坦等呼吁，珍惜和维护二战后建立的国际经济治理体系和最惠国待遇基本原则；澳大利亚、尼日利亚、埃及等呼吁，克制采取有损多边贸易体制的单边措施……

通过上述新闻报道，大家或已经猜到了，所谓“彩头”可以基于非传统安全层面，比如，经济问题。或者说，美俄，中欧，围绕乌克兰问题，中东问题搭建的，看似互不相关的两张“麻将桌儿”是可以通过各方共同关心的切实经济利益联系起来并相互转化的。

那么在传统安全层面呢？自然也是如此！既然欧盟有意拉中国谈乌克兰问题，那中国就一定会把“中国主张”带入其中。

2025年2月14日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅出席慕尼黑安全会议，在“中国专场”致辞并回答现场提问。

关于中国在解决乌克兰危机方面的立场，王毅说，对于世界上的争端与冲突，中国一贯主张对话协商、政治解决。在俄乌冲突问题上也一样。中国不是这场危机的制造者，更不是当事方，但我们没有隔岸观火，更没有借机牟利。从危机爆发的第二天起，中方就希望对话协商解决。*****提出四点主张，是中国立场的最权威阐释，指出各国的主权和领土完整应得到尊重，联合国宪章宗旨和原则应得到遵守，各方合理安全关切应得到重视，一切致力于和平的努力都应得到支持。我们以此为遵循积极开展外交斡旋，并同巴西等“全球南方”国家发起“和平之友”小组。形势发展证明，中方的主张客观、公正、理性、务实，体现了国际社会的广泛共识。

需要说明的是，“中国主张”在此时此刻的乌克兰问题上显得非常巧妙：其一，中国在乌克兰问题上主张和立场从未改变，变来变去的另有其人；其二，从未改变主张和立场的中国乌克兰政策，在“变到今天这番田地”的欧盟眼中可谓“非常顺眼”，尤其是“各国的主权和领土完整应得到尊重，联合国宪章宗旨和原则应得到遵守”这句话，毕竟，目前的乌克兰泽连斯基政府在乌克兰问题上的立场是偏向于欧盟的。

以此类推，按照中国一贯的外交立场和原则，在谈及中东问题的时候，中国也绝不会学美国和俄罗斯，将直接当事国，比如，乌克兰问题上的乌克兰和叙利亚问题上的叙利亚撇在一边，以牺牲直接当事国的核心利益为对价与对方讨价还价，这是典型的帝国主义行为和大国沙文主义行为。既不得人心，更是死路一条。

结合以上非传统安全层面，尤其是经济层面，以及传统安全层面，尤其是政治层面的某种氛围，大家不难感受到。中国一边在世贸组织层面，于包括美国传统盟友在内的众多深受美帝单边霸权行径毒害的国家的配合之下；另一边在“中东问题乌克兰谈”层面，于欧盟的配合下，在继续推动基于“中东是中东人民的中东”理念下的、由国际社会主导的“新中东多边安全框架”的过程中，在更广泛的、但涉及各方核心利益的经济问题上，或更准确地说，在美方单边加征关税做法及其恶劣影响问题上，注入变量，将原本看上去毫无关联且“太过飘逸”的“两桌儿麻将”有机联系起来，并为其喷涂上意味极其浓厚的“反帝、反霸”色彩。

●一句话形容这种局面：中国玩的是时间，美国玩的是内斗，俄罗斯玩的是幻想，欧洲玩的是伤心

美国人不是要玩“合纵连横”吗？那中国就好好教你们怎么玩！

众所周知，中国实力最强的地方就是经济，比如，进出口贸易。中国就以此为切入点让包括欧盟、俄罗斯，以及传统美国盟友，如，加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰、新加坡、挪威等在内的方方面面都拿到了反制美国，与其讨价还价的筹码。这是“远交近攻，合纵连横”，更是“群众路线与统一战线”！

对中国来说，如果乌克兰和平进程和中东和平进程都可以推，那就两个进程“轮推”；哪一边可以推，我们就推哪一边；如果都无法推，其一，中国的相关立场原则不会改变；其二，你们继续打，继续斗，我们回去忙着开民企座谈会，部署经济结构进一步转型升级。

问题在于，像美国前总统拜登这样玩（为一己私利，在叙利亚问题上打开了持续损害美国长期国家利益的“潘多拉魔盒”），像特朗普这样玩（同样为一己私利，全面调动外交资源服务于“攘外必先安内”政策），美国还有盟友吗？尤其是对当前美国全球战略稳定极其重要的欧美关系也敢损害。

当然，各方也知道，一旦特朗普政府有效缓和了代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部恶斗，特朗普的对外政策恐怕会“立刻变脸”。所以，对各方而言，趁着特朗普政府全面执行“攘外必先安内”政策无暇他顾之际，借中国提供的筹码、舞台、麦克风，尽可能从美国手中淘换到自己急需的利益就成了各自对外政策，尤其是对美政策的优先选择。一句话形容这种局面：中国玩的是时间，美国玩的是内斗，俄罗斯玩的是幻想，欧洲玩的是伤心。

●对美国来说，这样一个越南，想要将其向远离中国的方向拉开，成本要比之前高得多

最后，就中国周边地区的一些最新动态简要补充一些内容。

2月19日，据越南媒体报道，越南国会批准投资建设老街—河内—海防铁路项目。值得注意的是，这一铁路项目建设均使用中国技术，尤其是中国标准。

越南看上去似乎“成熟”了一些，但在我们看来，越南更多恐怕被吓怕了。

越南不仅和中国接壤，要面对世界作战能力第一、且装备已经领先美国陆军至少一代的中国人民解放军陆军，对那枚“敢问世间谁与争锋”的“DF31-AG”，极具战略威慑力的2024珠海航展，一次曝光两款新型战机，以及层出不穷的各类无人作战设备更是感到空前绝望。

尽管柬埔寨与中国关系出现反转，但毕竟“德崇-扶南”运河项目建设仅是“暂停”。如果洪森政府彻底改弦更张或被柬埔寨国内清算，德崇-扶南”运河项目建设是否会重新开工，越南心里没底。更何况，中老铁路，中泰铁路建设如火如荼，美国内部又乱成了今天这个样子，无暇他顾。而日本极右政权更是通过允许中国独立调查福岛核污染水问题低头认怂。越南深知，再不跟上，恐怕就彻底没机会了。而对美国来说，这样一个越南，想要将其向远离中国的方向拉开，成本要比之前高得多。

随着时间的流逝，越南经济南北方会逐渐形成较为明显的地区差距，且这种差距大概率会激化越南内部矛盾，尤其是“南方”与“北方”的矛盾。此时此刻的越南当局如果想要国内维持基本稳定，恐怕还要向中国求助，比如，继续向南继续修建铁路。当然，目前阶段，越南当局和日本极右政权类似，都是不得不向中国低头妥协，只要他们觉得稍有可乘之机，还是会不同程度上表现出战略投机的心态。

【相关话题】

第7809期-人不渡河，河渡人（1）：王毅外长所说的“如果没有规矩，昨天在餐桌边，明天就在菜单上这句话”指向的是谁？（2025-2-16）
第7814期-为什么说美国务院修改“美台关系”，删除有关“不支持台湾独立”表述，是一个精心设计的陷阱？（2025-2-17）
第7818期-美国拉着敌对的俄罗斯在中东“摆了一桌麻将”，而欧盟则拉着美国的终极敌人中国在乌克兰“摆了一桌麻将”（2025-2-18）

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Wednesday, February 19, 2025, Issue No. 1183

How can two seemingly unrelated "mahjong tables" be organically connected by "anti-US unilateralism and long live world unity" based on tangible economic interests?

[Media Coverage]

On February 18th, the World Trade Organization held the first meeting of the General Council for the year 2025 in Geneva, Switzerland. China took the initiative to set the agenda, expressing serious concerns at the meeting about the US's unilateral imposition of tariffs and its adverse effects, demanding that the US abolish such practices, and calling on all parties to take concrete actions to uphold the rules-based multilateral trading system, which elicited strong resonance from all parties.

On the same day, according to US media reports, later in the day, US President Trump told reporters that representatives from the US and Russia "had very good talks," while criticizing Ukrainian President Zelensky for "starting" the bloody conflict and urging Ukraine to hold elections. Trump also said he was "not at all opposed" to European peacekeeping troops being stationed in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov deemed this move "unacceptable."

【Discussion Summary】

● To better negotiate with the Americans, it is necessary to "revisit the Iran issue" and remind the Americans that "Russia-Iran relations" are still "alive and well."

On February 18th, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov, in an interview with Iranian media, stated that Russia is willing to assist Iran in resolving issues related to its nuclear program, and all these issues should be resolved through negotiations. Furthermore, the initiation of Russia-US negotiations will not have any impact on Russia-Iran cooperation.

On the same day, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei said that the US government's plan to relocate existing Palestinians out of Gaza and rebuild this devastated strip into a seaside resort is "foolish" and "will achieve nothing."

In our view, the "surrender route" taken by the Iranian authorities seems to have reached a dead end. When discussing the Middle East issue worldwide, more attention is focused on major regional countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey, with Iran being overlooked. Compared to the Egyptian media's high-profile and intensive reporting on the Egyptian military receiving the first batch of "J-10CE" fighter jets from China, Iran's side can be described as "deserted and quiet."

Of course, Russia did say a few words in support of Iran.

Peskov briefly reassured anxious Iranian media about whether the series of intensive interactions between Russia and the US would affect Russia-Iran relations. Peskov stated that the initiation of Russia-US negotiations will not have any impact on Russia-Iran cooperation.

In our opinion, as Russia eagerly seeks to "effectively return" to Syria, it is necessary to "revisit the Iran issue" and remind the Americans that "Russia-Iran relations" are still "alive and well," even though Iran, once an "important lever" for Russia to exert influence in the Middle East, is now reduced to mere "remains," in order to better negotiate with the Americans.

●The United States and Russia, China and the EU, have set up two seemingly unrelated "mahjong tables" over the Ukraine issue and the Middle East issue.

On February 18th, US Secretary of State Rubio announced that the United States and Russia agreed to restore staffing at their embassies in Washington and Moscow to form delegations to support the resolution of the Ukraine issue, bilateral relations, and broader cooperation.

On September 1st, 2017, the US State Department issued a statement saying that in order to achieve reciprocity in diplomatic missions, the United States demanded that Russia close its consulate general in San Francisco and two buildings in Washington and New York by September 2nd. Then-US President Trump (from January 20th, 2017, to January 20th, 2021) personally made the decision to close the Russian consulate in San Francisco.

It is not difficult to see that Trump, who once played "diplomatic wars," has, after spanning a US government administration (the Biden administration), "exchanged smiles" with the Putin government in Russia – since the "game rules" were not right, they might as well "start over and open a new chapter." The reason why the US and Russia chose to meet in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, is that both sides are keeping an eye on the subsequent developments of the Syria issue – Russia is eager to "effectively return" with the help of the United States, while the United States hopes to maintain its presence in the Middle East with the help of Russia, to counterbalance the EU on one hand and guard against China on the other. Thus, both sides tacitly staged a drama of "negotiating the Ukraine issue in the Middle East."

In our view, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that he does not rule out the possibility of China participating in negotiations on the Ukraine issue, which is the EU's intention. That is to say, the EU intends to invite China to "set up a mahjong table" regarding the Ukraine issue. Interestingly, although the EU attaches great importance to the Ukraine issue, Russia seems not to think so. Recently, Russia explicitly stated that it excludes Europe from participating in negotiations on the Ukraine issue.

Russia's decision obviously angered the EU. Given this, the EU has also taken a stance of excluding Russia from anything related to the Syria issue. The implication is that if Russia wants to "effectively return" to Syria, the EU will be the first to object! At the same time, the EU is also preparing to team up with China, the biggest enemy of the United States, to play a counter melody on the "negotiating the Ukraine issue in the Middle East," namely "negotiating the Middle East issue in Ukraine."

Thus, the United States and Russia, China and the EU, have, based on the Ukraine issue and the Middle East issue, set up two seemingly unrelated "mahjong tables" across the globe.

"Not opposed" to the deployment of European peacekeeping troops, but with no US military involvement – Trump is also using the China-EU alliance to threaten Russia. If Russia wants to exclude Europe and seeks help from the United States, it will have to make concessions to the United States. US Secretary of State Rubio even said that Ukraine and Europe will participate in "real" peace talks. What the United States means is that Europe should participate and make more efforts, continue to respect the United States as the leader politically, continue to pay military fees economically, and send peacekeeping troops militarily. It is worth mentioning that Russia vetoed NATO's entry into Ukraine. But Russia also knows that it won't be long before there will be a new mahjong table between Ukraine and the Middle East, which is China and Europe.

●China Proactively Introduces Variables, Organically Linking Two Seemingly Unrelated and "Too Ethereal" "Mahjong Tables" and Coating Them with a Strong "Anti-Imperialist, Anti-Hegemonist" Hue

China has no direct involvement (as a party) in either the Ukraine issue or the Middle East issue. China's potential "entry into the game" was "cordially invited" by the EU. In contrast, the US, EU, and Russia appear somewhat impatient.

From China's perspective, discussing the issue of peace in Ukraine amidst continuous "vicious battles" within the US and significant uncertainties in the subsequent development of the international situation seems "too ethereal." Since someone is shouting "one more player needed" and insists on inviting China to join the mahjong game, simply "playing for fun" seems uninteresting. To make the game enjoyable for everyone, there must be some stakes involved.

On February 18th, the World Trade Organization held the first meeting of the General Council for 2025 in Geneva, Switzerland. China proactively set the agenda, expressing serious concerns at the meeting about the US's unilateral imposition of tariffs and its adverse effects, demanding that the US abolish such practices, and calling on all parties to take concrete actions to uphold the rules-based multilateral trading system. This elicited strong resonance from all parties – over 30 WTO members, including the EU, Canada, Brazil, and Russia, spoke out against the US's unilateralist approach; Canada, New Zealand, and Singapore urged that the international community should not revert to a era of power politics and the "law of the jungle"; Norway and Nicaragua stated that trade wars and the uncertainty they create will severely impact small and medium-sized members that rely on international trade; Brazil, Pakistan, and others called for cherishing and maintaining the international economic governance system established after World War II and the basic principle of most-favored-nation treatment; Australia, Nigeria, Egypt, and others urged restraint in taking unilateral measures that harm the multilateral trading system...

From the aforementioned news report, you may have guessed that the so-called "stakes" can be based on non-traditional security aspects, such as economic issues. In other words, the two seemingly unrelated "mahjong tables" set up by the US-Russia and China-EU around the Ukraine issue and the Middle East issue can be linked and mutually transformed through common economic interests that are of concern to all parties.

The same applies to the traditional security level! Since the EU intends to involve China in discussions on the Ukraine issue, China will certainly bring its "Chinese propositions" into the mix.

On February 14th, 2025, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, attended the Munich Security Conference, delivering a speech and answering questions during the "China Session."

Regarding China's position on resolving the Ukraine crisis, Wang Yi said that China has always advocated dialogue, consultation, and political settlement for disputes and conflicts in the world. The same applies to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. China is neither the creator of this crisis nor a party to it, but we have not stood idly by or taken advantage of the situation. From the second day of the crisis, China has hoped for a resolution through dialogue and consultation. ***** put forward four propositions, which are the most authoritative explanation of China's position, pointing out that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, the purposes and principles of the UN Charter should be adhered to, the legitimate security concerns of all parties should be taken seriously, and all efforts towards peace should be supported. Following this guidance, we have actively conducted diplomatic mediation and initiated the "Group of Friends of Peace" with Brazil and other "Global South" countries. Developments have proven that China's propositions are objective, fair, rational, and pragmatic, reflecting the broad consensus of the international community.

It should be noted that "China's propositions" are very clever in the current context of the Ukraine issue: firstly, China's positions and propositions on the Ukraine issue have never changed; it is others who have changed; secondly, China's consistent Ukraine policy, which has never altered its positions and propositions, is considered "very pleasing" in the eyes of the EU, which has "changed to this state today," especially the phrase "the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, and the purposes and principles of the UN Charter should be adhered to." After all, the current Zelenskyy government in Ukraine leans towards the EU on the Ukraine issue.

By analogy, in line with China's consistent diplomatic positions and principles, when discussing the Middle East issue, China will never follow the example of the US and Russia by setting aside direct parties, such as Ukraine in the Ukraine issue and Syria in the Syria issue, and bargaining with the other side at the cost of sacrificing the core interests of the direct parties. This is typical imperialist behavior and great power chauvinism. It is unpopular and leads to a dead end.

Combining the above non-traditional security aspects, especially the economic level, with a certain atmosphere at the traditional security level, particularly the political level, it is not difficult to feel that, on one hand, at the WTO level, with the cooperation of many countries, including traditional US allies, that have been poisoned by US unilateral hegemonic actions, and on the other hand, at the level of "negotiating the Middle East issue in Ukraine," with the cooperation of the EU, China is continuing to promote an "New Middle East Multilateral Security Framework" led by the international community based on the concept that "the Middle East belongs to the people of the Middle East." In the process, on broader economic issues that involve the core interests of all parties, or more accurately, on the issue of the US's unilateral imposition of tariffs and its adverse effects, China is introducing variables to organically link the two seemingly unrelated and "too ethereal" "mahjong tables" and coating them with a strong "anti-imperialist, anti-hegemonist" hue.

● One sentence to describe this situation: China is playing with time, the US is engaging in internal strife, Russia is indulging in fantasies, and Europe is nursing a broken heart.

Aren't the Americans trying to play the game of "alliance and counter-alliance"? Then China will teach you how to play it right!

As we all know, China's strongest suit is its economy, such as import and export trade. China uses this as an entry point to give various parties, including the EU, Russia, and traditional US allies like Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Norway, leverage to counter and negotiate with the US. This is "distant diplomacy and allying with the near while attacking the distant," and it's also the "mass line and united front"!

For China, if both the peace processes in Ukraine and the Middle East can be promoted, then we will promote them alternately; whichever side can be pushed forward, we will push it; if neither can be pushed, first, China's relevant positions and principles will not change; second, you can keep fighting and quarreling, while we go back to holding private enterprise symposia and deploying further transformations and upgrades of our economic structure.

The problem is, with former US President Biden playing like this (opening a "Pandora's box" that continuously harms the US's long-term national interests on the Syrian issue for his personal gain) and Trump playing like that (also for his personal gain, fully mobilizing diplomatic resources to serve the policy of "settling internal affairs before resisting external aggression"), does the US still have allies? Especially daring to harm the crucial US-Europe relationship for the current US global strategic stability.

Of course, all parties are aware that once the Trump administration effectively eases the internal strife among US capital interests that represent Western capital interests, Trump's foreign policy may "immediately change its face." Therefore, for all parties, while the Trump administration is fully implementing the policy of "settling internal affairs before resisting external aggression" and has no time for other matters, it has become a priority in their foreign policies, especially towards the US, to take advantage of the leverage, stage, and microphone provided by China to bargain for the interests they urgently need from the US. One sentence to describe this situation: China is playing with time, the US is engaging in internal strife, Russia is indulging in fantasies, and Europe is nursing a broken heart.

● For the US, the cost of pulling a Vietnam like this away from China is much higher than before.

Finally, I will briefly supplement some content on the latest developments in China's neighboring regions.

On February 19th, according to Vietnamese media reports, the Vietnamese National Assembly approved the investment and construction of the Lao Cai-Hanoi-Haiphong railway project. It is worth noting that this railway project will be built using Chinese technology, especially Chinese standards.

Vietnam seems to have "matured" somewhat, but in our view, Vietnam is probably more frightened.

Vietnam not only borders China but also faces the People's Liberation Army, which has the world's first combat capability and equipment that is at least a generation ahead of the US Army. Vietnam feels unprecedentedly desperate about the "DF31-AG" that "dares to ask who can compete in the world," the highly strategically deterrent 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, the exposure of two new types of fighter jets at once, and the endless variety of unmanned combat equipment.

Although relations between Cambodia and China have taken a turn, the construction of the "De Chong-Funan" canal project is merely "suspended." If the Hun Sen government completely changes course or is held accountable domestically in Cambodia, it is uncertain whether the construction of the "De Chong-Funan" canal project will resume. Furthermore, with the construction of the China-Laos and China-Thailand railways in full swing, and the US in disarray with no time for other matters, and the Japanese far-right regime even bowing down by allowing China to independently investigate the issue of Fukushima contaminated water. Vietnam knows that if it doesn't keep up, it may miss out on opportunities entirely. And for the US, the cost of pulling a Vietnam like this away from China is much higher than before.

As time goes by, a more pronounced regional disparity will gradually emerge between the north and south of Vietnam's economy, and this disparity will likely intensify internal conflicts in Vietnam, especially between the "south" and the "north." If the Vietnamese authorities want to maintain basic stability domestically at this moment, they may have to seek help from China, such as continuing to build railways southward. Of course, at this stage, the Vietnamese authorities, similar to the Japanese far-right regime, have no choice but to compromise with China. As long as they feel there is any opportunity, they will still exhibit a strategic opportunistic mindset to varying degrees.

[Related Topics]

Issue 7809 - People Don't Cross Rivers, Rivers Cross People (1): Who is Wang Yi, the Foreign Minister, referring to when he says, "If there are no rules, one could be at the dining table today and on the menu tomorrow"? (2025-02-16)
Issue 7814 - Why is the US State Department's revision of "US-Taiwan relations" and deletion of the statement about "not supporting Taiwan independence" a carefully designed trap? (2025-02-17)
Issue 7818 - The US is playing "mahjong" in the Middle East with its adversary Russia, while the EU is playing "mahjong" in Ukraine with China, the ultimate enemy of the US (2025-02-18)

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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