2025年2月15日，星期六，第1180期

再谈西方资本利益（美国资本利益代言）在俄乌战争中的“退出机制”

【媒体报道】

2月14日，美国副总统万斯对华盛顿的欧洲盟友进行了猛烈抨击。他称，“我最担心的威胁不是俄罗斯，不是中国，也不是任何其他外部势力。我担心的是来自内部的威胁。欧洲正在放弃一些最基本的价值观，但这些价值观与美国是一致的。”他指责欧洲国家领导人审查社交媒体、干涉选举和侵犯基督徒的权利，“这是摧毁民主的最好方法”。演讲中，万斯点名批评了英国、瑞典和德国。

2月14日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅出席慕尼黑安全会议，在“中国专场”发表题为《坚定做变革世界中的建设性力量》的致辞。

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二是应尊重国际法治。中国有句古话，没有规矩，不成方圆。联合国宪章宗旨和原则是处理国际关系的根本遵循，也是建设多极世界的重要基石。当今世界乱象频出，一个重要原因就是有些国家迷信实力至上，打开了丛林法则的潘多拉盒子。实际上，国家不论大小强弱，都是国际法治的利益攸关方。多极格局不能是无序的状态，如果没有了规矩，昨天在餐桌边，明天就可能在菜单上。大国要带头讲诚信、讲法治，坚决摒弃言行不一、零和博弈。

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【讨论纪要】

●“如果没有规矩，昨天在餐桌边，明天就在菜单上这句话”指向的是谁？

目前阶段，国际局势的焦点仍在欧洲，比如，前几天我们重点讨论的巴黎AI行动峰会以及这几天在德国慕尼黑召开的第61届慕尼黑安全会议。

美国副总统万斯在欧洲大放厥词，震动西方社会，有欧洲媒体直呼：美欧间价值观分歧已无法掩盖。

值得一提的是，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅2月14日出席第61届慕尼黑安全会议，在“中国专场”致辞并回答了现场提问。尤其是针对中美关系问题，王毅在回答时表示，中国有句古话：“天行健，君子自强不息”。中国还有句话说得很形象，“他强任他强，清风拂山岗；他横任他横，明月照大江”。这就是中国人的气度、中华民族的品格。任尔东西南北风，我自泰然处之，岿然不动。

不难看出，中美双方在表达各自观点的过程中都直截了当，美方傲慢无礼，中国大义凛然，中美两个大国在欧洲自己的一亩三分地上碰撞得火花四溅。有趣的是，当西方的媒体记者对中国外长引用的“古话”感到翻译困难的时候，王毅外长直接建议他们尝试使用DeepSeek。

此外，值得大家注意的是，王毅外长套用了美国前国务卿布林肯曾说过的一句话——“在国际体系中，如果你不在餐桌上，就可能会在菜单上”。当时，美国前国务卿布林肯在第60届慕尼黑安全会议（2024年2月16日至18日）上这番言论是如此露骨，足以让每一个听到的人瞠目结舌。王毅外长将布林肯的话进行倒装，并设置了一个前提：多极格局不能是无序的状态，如果没有了规矩，昨天在餐桌边，明天就可能在菜单上。

话说，美国、欧盟和俄罗斯都信奉帝国主义，都不讲规矩，按王毅外长的话说，这三家就都可能“昨天在餐桌上，明天你可能就在菜单上”。

●一份各取所需的“临时商业合同”

这几天，特朗普和普京频繁通话，甚至提到了要进行互访。双方主要聊的内容之一就是把乌克兰放在了“砧板”上。

东方时事解读一贯认为，对美国国家利益来说，不能接受俄乌战争的失败，但西方资本利益可以。而现在特朗普就在“为人民说话，但更在替华尔街办事”。

对特朗普来说，只要能够让他的“敌人们”和“朋友们”继续赚钱，一切问题就都不是问题。特朗普宁可接受乌克兰战败，也要让他的“敌人们”和“朋友们”继续赚钱。也就是说，特朗普政府意图以牺牲乌克兰为代价，阶段性缓和代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部的日渐加深的矛盾，而对价则是让俄罗斯暂时赢得战争。其作用相当于双方暂时拿到了一份“商业合同”。

普京拿着这份“商业合同”去巩固他的政权，将自己包装成俄罗斯的民族英雄；特朗普则拿着这份“商业合同”去给他的“敌人们”和“朋友们”创造继续赚钱的机会。值得一提的是，这份“合同”中，光乌克兰的稀土资源就价值几十万亿美元，显然，特朗普也借此机会向中国发出信号：即便没有中国默许，美国也可以随心所欲地大规模公开启动印钞机！

●即便俄乌停战也是暂时停战，后来的麻烦还多着呢

我们注意到，2月13日有媒体报道称，乌克兰总统泽连斯基决定以“叛国罪”逮捕该国前总统波罗申科。这据称是“原则性决定”。

特朗普需要足够的利益“做蛋糕”分给他的“朋友”或他的“敌人”，3500亿美元的“账单”显然不是全部。有消息称，美国的特工在机场当众拦住了乌克兰总统泽连斯基，要求其在把乌克兰矿产二一添作五分给美国的文件上签字，泽连斯基最终口头上委婉的加以拒绝。但在我们的观察中，泽连斯基最终妥协的可能性很大。多日不曾露面，一露面就炒作准备参加2025年乌克兰总统大选的乌克兰前总统波罗申科的“突然出现”就是强烈信号。

乌克兰的稀土矿产就价值20万亿美元，如果再加上其他的，尤其是乌克兰的重建，这笔资产恐怕规模不止百万亿美元？最重要的是，对特朗普来说，只要有了这个合同，就可以立刻转手将其卖掉，将其做成各种各样的金融衍生品，比如，发债、保险、印钞等。这就能够相当程度缓和代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部，从硅谷银行暴雷开始产生的一系列内部尖锐矛盾。

需要强调的是，在我们看来，盖茨和马斯克之间的矛盾，特朗普和拜登之间的矛盾都是资本层面的矛盾，只要条件允许，就可以有效缓和，哪怕只是阶段性的。

表面看上去，赢家是美国资本利益和俄罗斯，输家是乌克兰、美国国家利益，甚至欧洲利益（包括欧洲国家利益和部分欧洲资本利益）。也许欧洲人听到了王毅外长的讲话会有一定感悟，试问，欧洲利益甘愿为延续三年之久且目前仍在持续，何时以什么形式最终彻底结束尚无定论的俄乌战争买单吗？

在我们看来，俄乌战争真正意义上的停火很难实现。乌克兰所谓“美国和俄罗斯一人一半”，这是不可能长久的，问题是，欧洲利益，美国国家利益，再加上俄罗斯基于战争本身，以及战争负面影响外溢所蒙受的巨大损失，包括前不久叙利亚阿萨德政权的倾覆，尤其是一个长期不稳定的乌克兰（这本来就是西方精心设计的陷阱，也就是微调后中东政策形成的时间陷阱，从2014年套死俄罗斯，同时借此死套俄罗斯的各方利益，包括中东利益、南亚利益等。值得一提的是，这个陷阱无论何时，怎么变化都是始终存在的。西方还要借套住俄罗斯的脖子，讹诈俄罗斯在必要的战略方向配合西方。有趣的是，这个陷阱在俄乌战争还未开始，就又开始起作用了），仅靠“一半的乌克兰”恐怕难以弥补。

对俄罗斯而言，就算能够占据乌克兰，但很难产生实实在在的收益。一方面，乌克兰有黑土地，有矿产，但俄罗斯这些自己也有，并不需要；另一方面，乌克兰有大量破损的房屋和基础设施，需要重建，更有上千万人需要就业，这些俄罗斯却无能为力。

所以，即便俄乌停战也是暂时停战，后来的麻烦还多着呢？但对特朗普来说，要的就是暂时停战，特朗普是商人，随时翻脸，不随时变脸反而他自己觉得不正常。所以，王毅外长的话，也是在善意地提醒欧盟和俄罗斯，不要鼠目寸光，再度上当！

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Saturday, February 15, 2025, Issue No. 1180

Musk's 17th revision to his will includes measures such as "releasing the source code of Starlink if he disappears for 72 hours" — who is he sending a strong warning to?

[Media Coverage]

On February 14th, U.S. Vice President Vance launched a fierce attack on European allies in Washington. He stated, "My greatest concern is not Russia, not China, nor any other external force. My concern lies with the threat from within. Europe is abandoning some of its most fundamental values, which are in line with those of the United States." He accused European leaders of censoring social media, interfering in elections, and violating the rights of Christians, saying, "This is the best way to destroy democracy." In his speech, Vance specifically criticized the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Germany.

OOn February 14th, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, attended the Munich Security Conference and delivered a speech titled "Being a Constructive Force in a Changing World" at the "China Session".

...

The second point is to respect international law. As an old Chinese saying goes, "Nothing can be accomplished without norms or standards." The purposes and principles of the UN Charter are the fundamental guidelines for handling international relations and the important cornerstone for building a multipolar world. The chaos in today's world is partly due to some countries' belief in the supremacy of power, which has opened Pandora's box of the law of the jungle. In fact, countries, regardless of their size or strength, are stakeholders in international law. A multipolar framework cannot be in a state of disorder. Without rules, one could be at the dining table today and on the menu tomorrow. Major powers should take the lead in upholding integrity and the rule of law, resolutely abandoning inconsistencies between words and actions, and zero-sum games.

...

【Discussion Summary】

●Who does the phrase "without rules, one could be at the dining table today and on the menu tomorrow" refer to?

At this stage, the focus of the international situation remains in Europe, such as the Paris AI Action Summit we discussed in detail a few days ago and the 61st Munich Security Conference held in Munich, Germany these days.

U.S. Vice President Vance's outrageous remarks in Europe have shocked Western society, with some European media outlets exclaiming that the values divide between the U.S. and Europe can no longer be concealed.

It is worth mentioning that Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, attended the 61st Munich Security Conference on February 14th and delivered a speech at the "China Session," responding to questions from the audience. Especially regarding Sino-U.S. relations, Wang Yi stated in his response that there is an old Chinese saying, "As heaven's movement is vigorous, so must a gentleman strive relentlessly." Another Chinese saying goes, "Let him be strong, I remain unperturbed like the breeze on the mountains; let him be arrogant, I remain serene like the moon over the river." This reflects the attitude of the Chinese people and the character of the Chinese nation. No matter the winds from the east, west, north, or south, we remain composed and unshaken.

It is evident that both China and the U.S. have been straightforward in expressing their respective views, with the U.S. side being arrogant and China upholding righteousness. The two major powers, China and the U.S., have collided spectacularly on Europe's own turf. Interestingly, when Western media reporters found it challenging to translate the "old sayings" quoted by the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi directly suggested they try using DeepSeek.

Furthermore, it is worth noting that Foreign Minister Wang Yi paraphrased a phrase once said by former U.S. Secretary of State Blinken – "In the international system, if you're not at the table, you're on the menu." At the time, former U.S. Secretary of State Blinken made this blatant remark at the 60th Munich Security Conference (February 16-18, 2024), which was so explicit that it left everyone who heard it stunned. Foreign Minister Wang Yi inverted Blinken's phrase and set a premise: A multipolar framework cannot be in a state of disorder. Without rules, one could be at the dining table today and on the menu tomorrow.

Incidentally, the U.S., the EU, and Russia all subscribe to imperialism and do not follow rules. As Foreign Minister Wang Yi put it, all three could find themselves "at the dining table today and on the menu tomorrow".

●A "Temporary Commercial Contract" for Mutual Benefit

In recent days, Trump and Putin have had frequent conversations, even mentioning the possibility of mutual visits. One of the main topics of their discussions was placing Ukraine on the "chopping block".

Eastern Affairs Interpretation has always believed that for U.S. national interests, a defeat in the Russia-Ukraine war is unacceptable, but Western capital interests can accept it. And now, Trump is "speaking for the people but, more importantly, doing the bidding of Wall Street".

For Trump, as long as his "enemies" and "friends" can continue to make money, nothing else matters. Trump would rather accept a Ukrainian defeat than deprive his "enemies" and "friends" of the opportunity to continue making money. That is, the Trump administration intends to temporarily ease the deepening internal conflicts within U.S. capital interests, which represent Western capital interests, at the expense of Ukraine, with the quid pro quo being Russia's temporary victory in the war. This is tantamount to both sides temporarily reaching a "commercial contract".

Putin uses this "commercial contract" to consolidate his regime and portray himself as a national hero in Russia; Trump uses it to create opportunities for his "enemies" and "friends" to continue making money. It is worth mentioning that this "contract" includes Ukraine's rare earth resources, which are worth trillions of dollars. Clearly, Trump is also using this opportunity to signal to China that even without China's tacit approval, the U.S. can freely and massively activate its printing press!

Even if a ceasefire is reached in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it will only be temporary, and there will be plenty of trouble ahead.

We have noticed that on February 13th, media reports stated that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy decided to arrest former President Poroshenko on charges of "treason." This was allegedly a "principled decision."

Trump needs sufficient benefits to "make a cake" and share it among his "friends" or "enemies." The $350 billion "bill" is clearly not all there is to it. It is reported that US agents publicly stopped Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at the airport and demanded that he sign a document dividing Ukraine's minerals equally with the US. Zelenskyy ultimately politely refused verbally. However, in our observation, there is a high possibility that Zelenskyy will eventually compromise. The "sudden appearance" of former Ukrainian President Poroshenko, who has not been seen for many days and is now promoting his candidacy for the 2025 Ukrainian presidential election, is a strong signal.

Ukraine's rare earth minerals are worth $20 trillion, and when combined with other resources, especially the reconstruction of Ukraine, the value of these assets could exceed trillions or even quadrillions of dollars. Most importantly, for Trump, once he has this contract, he can immediately sell it and turn it into various financial derivatives, such as bonds, insurance, and currency printing. This could significantly ease the series of internal conflicts that have arisen within US capital interests, which represent Western capital interests, since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

It should be emphasized that, in our view, the conflicts between Gates and Musk, as well as between Trump and Biden, are all conflicts at the capital level. They can be effectively eased, even if only temporarily, as long as the conditions permit.

On the surface, it appears that the winners are US capital interests and Russia, while the losers are Ukraine, US national interests, and even European interests (including European national interests and some European capital interests). Perhaps Europeans will gain some insight after hearing Foreign Minister Wang Yi's speech. One has to ask, is European interest willing to foot the bill for the Russia-Ukraine war, which has lasted for three years and is still ongoing, with no definite conclusion on when or how it will ultimately end?

In our view, a truly meaningful ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war is difficult to achieve. Ukraine's so-called "50-50 split between the US and Russia" is not sustainable. The problem is that European interests, US national interests, and the enormous losses suffered by Russia due to the war itself and the spillover of its negative effects, including the recent overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, especially a long-term unstable Ukraine (which was originally a carefully designed trap by the West, a time trap formed after slight adjustments to the Middle East policy, which has ensnared Russia since 2014, and has also trapped various interests of Russia, including those in the Middle East and South Asia. It is worth mentioning that this trap exists at all times and in all forms. The West still wants to use it to choke Russia and blackmail it into cooperating with the West in necessary strategic directions. Interestingly, this trap started to work even before the Russia-Ukraine war began), cannot be compensated for by just "half of Ukraine."

For Russia, even if it can occupy Ukraine, it is difficult to generate tangible benefits. On the one hand, Ukraine has black soil and minerals, but Russia has these resources itself and does not need them. On the other hand, Ukraine has a large number of damaged houses and infrastructure that need to be rebuilt, and there are tens of millions of people who need employment. Russia is powerless to address these issues.

Therefore, even if a ceasefire is reached in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it will only be temporary, and there will be plenty of trouble ahead. But for Trump, all he needs is a temporary ceasefire. Trump is a businessman, and he thinks it's abnormal not to change his mind at any time. Therefore, Foreign Minister Wang Yi's words are also a kind reminder to the EU and Russia not to be shortsighted and fall for it again!

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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