2025年2月10日，星期一，第1175期

东方点评，中国派遣高规格代表团参与巴黎人工智能行动峰会

【媒体报道】

2月10日，为期两天的人工智能行动峰会在巴黎开幕。峰会由法国和印度共同主办。这是全球第三次举办此类峰会。*********特别代表、中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理张国清将参会。其他与会政要还包括法国总统马克龙、印度总理莫迪、美国副总统万斯等。

【讨论纪要】

●早在2008年，东方时事解读就西方内、外部各主要矛盾做出过具体评估

再次强调，在我们的观察中，特朗普政府的一系列行为和二战爆发前的纳粹德国希特勒政权的一系列行为非常相似。在对内大搞政治清洗，排除异己，强化独裁统治等方面表现得尤为突出。

值得一提的是，早在2008年，东方时事解读就西方内、外部各主要矛盾做出过具体评估，其主要包括：

第一，目前仍然代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益与西方资本利益一部分的欧洲资本利益之间很难调和的矛盾；

第二，“美国资本利益与美国国家利益”之间不可调和的矛盾；

第三，美国国家利益与欧洲国家利益之间不可调和的矛盾；

第四，美国资本代言的西方资本利益与中国国家利益为代表的发展中国家（南方国家利益）之间不可调和的矛盾，特别是，中国与美国之间不可调和的矛盾等。

不仅如此，目前阶段，代言西方资本利益的美国资本的内部矛盾也在一系列内、外矛盾的激化下进一步深化、扩大。这中间有的一个例子就表现在旧有的美国军工复合体与新兴的美国科技综合体之间，且这一矛盾的不断尖锐激化，具体地表现在“双方在争夺美国金融主导权”上。

此外，对这些矛盾变化的相关评估和不断观察是我们判断特朗普政府对外政策的一切变化，万变不离其宗，焦点都在“内斗”之上的主要依据之一，也是我们观察美国内部，乃至西方内部不同利益集团之间关系变化的主要依据之一。

●特朗普政府的中东政策何尝不是“按倒了葫芦瓢又起”？

在继续展开讨论前，我们来看一则新闻报道：

2月9日，据以色列媒体报道，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡结束访美行程后在以色列内阁会议上表示，他此次与美国总统特朗普及其政府官员的会晤为以色列带来“从未梦想过的机会”。

在2月7日的讨论中，我们着重讨论了特朗普政府在乌克兰问题上欲平衡欧、俄，结果“按下了葫芦瓢又起”的话题：第一，2月6日，俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃说，冻结俄乌冲突或临时停火都是不可接受的，因为西方会利用这一点来加强基辅政权的军事力量；第二，2月6日，德国前总理默克尔罕见发声，称“俄罗斯在乌克兰的胜利不可接受”。

特朗普政府在乌克兰问题上左支右绌，在中东问题上也是如此。美国如果真的启动全面撤离叙利亚之相关进程，美国自己先不说，必然会引起诸如欧盟、俄罗斯、以色列、土耳其，沙特、埃及等中东主要国家的强烈反应。不难想象的是，拜登政府时期，仅仅叙利亚局势进入后阿萨德政权时期就已经在短期内形成“九龙治水”的局面，如果美国实质性从叙利亚（中东）撤走自己的影响力，在美国内部“恶斗”再度白热化，特朗普政府集中精力应对内政问题无暇他顾的背景下，“各路诸侯”不知道会兴奋成什么样子。

说到美国内部“恶斗”再度白热化这个话题，我们不妨补充一些内容。

●不排除马斯克会落得和主父偃相同下场的可能性

2月9日，在社交媒体上出现了一个质疑美联储的帖子。帖子写道：为什么伊隆·马斯克支持罗恩·保罗领导对美联储的审计会成为大事情？因为美联储从来没有进行过全面审计，也没有全面披露货币政策决定。“政府效率部”和马斯克应该让长期批评美联储的罗恩·保罗来领导对美联储进行审计。随后，马斯克回复称：“好主意。政府各部门必须完全透明，没有例外，包括但不限于美联储”

在我们的观察与评估中，马斯克之所以放风可能调查美联储，恐怕是“马部长”的“查账风暴”遭遇到了巨大阻碍，且很明显这股阻碍力量来自美国资本利益内部。甚至不排除包括部分曾支持“特朗普们”之“马斯克们”人或利益集团的可能性。如果从党派角度观察，可谓“既包括民主党人，也包括共和党人”。所以，马斯克放风要查美联储，未必是真的查，而是基于“求其上，得其中”层面的一种博弈策略，用它来与对方讨价还价。

如果我们就目前特朗普和马斯克的处境，参考中国历史人物做一个有趣的对比，某种意义上说，如果把特朗普比作汉武帝，马斯克就是主父偃。

主父偃出身寒微，仕途之路屡有挫折。成为汉武帝的大臣后，其一方面展现出不俗的工作能力，比如，协助汉武帝，通过“推恩令”削弱藩镇、击败强敌匈奴；另一方面，因其人心胸狭窄、睚眦必报，且借汉武帝推行国策最大限度攫取私利而罪了很多人，尤其是刘姓贵族。

原本汉武帝不想诛杀主父偃，但又御史大夫公孙弘对武帝说，齐王死了（自杀），没有留下后代，封国被废除变成了郡并归朝廷直接管辖，这是一件非常不幸的事情，而主父偃就是这件不幸事件的罪魁祸首。如果陛下不杀此人，恐难向天下人交代。于是，汉武帝以此为由处决了主父偃，并以此换取其他藩王继续遵守既定的汉武帝仍在推行的国策。值得一提的是，从历史资料的种种迹象观察，主父偃的胡作非为，主父偃的假公济私，汉武帝是早就知道的。

值得一提的是，特朗普政府推行的对外政策，类似蒋介石反动集团在抗日战争期间推行的“攘外必先安内”策略，可以说，特朗普政府“攘外”首先服务于“内斗”，也就是我们此前所说的，特朗普政府调动一切外交资源，首先服务于“内斗”，不顾美国国家长远利益，甚至部分损害到了西方资本利益。所以，如果有一天，对特朗普政府而言，局势不妙到一定程度，不排除马斯克会落得和主父偃相同下场的可能性。我们从美国某知名杂志封面拱火“马斯克总统”（用了马斯克坐在美国总统办公桌后面这样的一个平面设计），特朗普只能尴尬回应中，多多少少可以看到端倪。

●特朗普政府与内塔尼亚胡小集团之间，一桩“现实对现实”的“交易”

在我们的长期观察中，特朗普其人非常善变，这一点在特朗普政府叙利亚政策180度大掉头（从原来向相对于远离2024年11月5日前拜登政府的叙利亚政策回归，突然在短期内迅速调整为，向同样相对远离2024年11月5日的“美国总统候选人特朗普”回归，甚至比那个时候的特朗普“更特朗普”）上展现得淋漓尽致。

所以，内塔尼亚胡结束访美后回国，称与特朗普政府会晤为以色列带来“从未梦想过的机会”，某种意义上是有感而发，也是真心话。可以说，这是“比‘大胜’还要大的胜利”，在特朗普所谓“加沙是一个巨大的房地产项目”的“承诺”中，不仅包括派遣美军进驻加沙地带、对外的外交协调，更有加沙地带重建项目及相关的融资计划，真可谓“超级贴心”。特朗普为了“更好的内斗”，不惜做内塔尼亚胡的“贤内助”。

当然，在方方面面，尤其是内塔尼亚胡眼中，在“感慨”之余，恐怕内心深处也清楚特朗普这样做的目的。或者说，这份来自特朗普的“慷慨”是有“保质期”的。既然特朗普认为“加沙是一个巨大的房地产项目”，当然可以将这一项目分期执行，这是传统意义上房地产业的“常规操作”。既然如此，“第一期”也许对内塔尼亚胡小集团是有利的，但不代表其他分期也是如此。关键在于，在不同的阶段，特朗普需要什么就说什么，这一点足够现实，甚至残酷。不过，对内塔尼亚胡小集团来说，正所谓“今朝有酒今朝醉，明日无酒再猜对”，既然特朗普的“加沙房地产项目”之“第一阶段”对其有利，大可先拿去用于巩固内塔尼亚胡政权再说！

●警告日本当局，一旦东北亚局势有变，日本是可能吃核弹的

特朗普的确善变，而且如此善变也并非一无所得，这不，被逼将首访放在美国的日本新任首相石破茂，将日铁收购美钢计划“调整”为投资。此外，石破茂承诺对美国的投资提高至1万亿美元、日本和美国还将就能源问题开展合作等等。而就在大约1个月前的1月6日，同样是日本首相石破茂，对时任美国总统拜登发出警告，称阻止日本制铁公司以141亿美元收购美国钢铁公司的决定，可能会影响两国的双边贸易 。之所以说，石破茂首访美国是被逼无奈，恐怕与日本当前严重的疫情和2024年12月和2025年2月的连续两次车祸密切相关。当然，其中也有石破茂没能从中国这里骗到自己心心念念地解除日本海产品制裁的情绪问题，这里不再赘述。

2月7日，我们注意到，朝中社发表评论称，核武器并非谈判筹码，而是用来对抗威胁朝鲜人民与世界和平的敌人。

对于石破茂的嘴脸，国际社会自然不会惯着。警告日本当局，一旦东北亚局势有变，日本是可能吃核弹的，别忘了，日本同中、俄、朝三个（有核国家，其中两个还是核大国）国家都与历史恩怨没有了解，且日本和中、俄、韩有主权领土争端问题。何况，朝鲜和俄罗斯又有军事同盟，包括朝鲜半岛、台海、南海局势有变，日本大概率会沦为美国的炮灰。别忘了，除了琉球问题外，北海道也不是日本应有领土。一旦日本被打，不仅会被白打，甚至日本到底是被谁打的都有可能无法确定（如果朝鲜潜艇在“争议水域”对日本进行核打击，日本恐怕很难界定到底是被谁打的）。而特朗普政府更不会为了日本而去牺牲自身利益。

●“特朗普们”心心念念的“星际之门”融资项目，企图借此机会，于非传统安全层面逼着各方站队已经做不到了

国际社会对特朗普政府的警告不仅在日本外问题上，更在特朗普政府上台伊始就拼命炒作、鼓噪的“合纵连横，远交近攻”问题上，而且基于AI层面，将“合纵连横，远交近攻”玩出了“新高度”。

我们注意到2月10日，为期两天的人工智能行动峰会在巴黎开幕。中国派出了规格非常高的代表团与会，引起各方关注。

在我们的观察与评估中，既然特朗普政府瞄着中俄战略互信玩“合纵连横，远交近攻”，索性国际社会就瞄着美国最大的盟友——欧盟也玩“合纵连横，远交近攻”。最重要的是让欧盟，尤其是“老欧洲”知道AI，是可以在不被美帝严密操控下玩的。国际社会通过如此高规格参加在法国首都巴黎举行的人工智能行动峰会，就是要向欧盟，尤其是“老欧洲”传递明确信号：印度都有信心玩得AI，欧盟（“老欧洲”）就玩不得？

恐怕这一明确信号，首先激发了“老欧洲”在“西方资本复杂转进”问题上的某种渴望，要知道，美国内部“恶斗”不断，“拜登们”之“索罗斯们”已经跑到了欧洲，“盖茨们”正准备出逃，似乎“西方资本复杂转进”到欧洲平台的可能性比任何时候都要高。在中国的加持下，欧盟在AI层面成为“世界第三极”有何不可？在中国取得软硬件方面的全方位、系统性突破后，美国通过AI技术霸权继续掌控世界，操纵欧洲的玩法已破！如果说“DeepSeek+华为”模式可以拷贝到中东、可以拷贝到俄罗斯，甚至可以拷贝到印度，为什么不能拷贝到欧洲？显然，这一信号出现后，特朗普政府，或者说“特朗普们”心心念念的“星际之门”融资项目，企图借此机会，于非传统安全层面逼着各方站队已经做不到了。

2月9日，法国总统马克龙宣布，未来几年内法国人工智能（AI）领域的投资将达1090亿欧元。马克龙说，1090亿欧元将来自阿拉伯联合酋长国在法国建设人工智能园区的投入以及美国、加拿大的大型投资基金和法国企业的投资等。

在我们看来，如果不考虑中国因素，特朗普政府的所作所为，实际上是在“西方资本复杂转进”的问题上为渊驱鱼。试问，在国际社会对欧盟，尤其是“老欧洲”发出明确信号，且强烈激发其在“西方资本复杂转进”问题上的“强烈欲望”的情况下，面对欧盟或在AI层面成为“世界一级”的可能性，美帝拦还是不拦？如果要拦，特朗普政府是否还有精力去拦？讽刺的是，特朗普的潜在敌人们似乎都在靠向欧盟，而欧盟在国际事务中对美国“大声说话”的次数正变得越来越多。当日本极右政权因过于靠近美国而成为欧盟潜在对手的时候，欧盟恐怕更会加速靠近中国。在特朗普政府就对华关系调整效果不明显，甚至适得其反的情况下，特朗普政府还怎么玩“合纵连横，远交近攻”？美国最大的盟友——欧盟，已经成为国际社会“合纵连横，远交近攻”的对象，还有比这样的结局更讽刺的事情吗？

一旦欧盟加入，在AI层面，世界至少会分为三级：中、美、欧，且大家首先就会争相拉拢，俄、日、韩、印、非洲等。由于美国走的是霸权之路，奉行帝国主义，其必然压制欧洲与俄罗斯的发展，这为中国更好开展合纵连横提供广阔的操作空间。俄罗斯大概率在中欧之间做出选择，这意味美国想要通过瓦解中俄战略互信玩合纵连横的难度，成本更高。由此不难看出，所谓“三级”中，中国是真正的一级，而美国是虚假的一级。欧洲和俄罗斯更是心知肚明。这场基于AI的大博弈，中国必赢。所以，我们不在乎结果，只在乎过程。

●在中东问题上，特朗普政府“拆东墙补西墙”的平衡策略显得尤为脆弱

我们注意到，美国总统特朗普就伊朗问题，近日，在接受采访时表示：“我希望与伊朗就非核问题达成协议。我宁愿这样做，也不愿把它炸个稀巴烂。他们不想死，没人想死。如果我们达成了协议，以色列就不会轰炸他们”。

在我们看来，尽管伊朗当局对外政策依旧运行在“投降主义”路线上，但对于特朗普政府而言，在继续压服伊朗上不敢松懈半分，而且在表达上要“兼顾两头”——既要继续保持压服伊朗，又要让内塔尼亚胡小集团对美国继续压服伊朗的言，尤其是行，感到满意。当然，对以色列来说，军事打击伊朗的战略选项不能排除，要不然，沙特等海湾国家回过头去找伊朗“商议大计”怎么办？

不难看出，特朗普政府在压服伊朗的问题上，采取的策略是通过威逼利诱继续孤立伊朗当局，最大限度降低伊朗与其他中东国家就诸如叙利亚问题等“谋于密室之中”，否则，一旦加沙局势有变，一直存有“有效重返叙利亚”心思且始终将自己打扮成各方可以争取对象的伊朗必然生变。这种担忧并非空穴来风，近日，土耳其外长就明确表示，加沙再次爆发冲突的可能性是客观存在的。

而更糟糕的是，以加沙问题为代表的巴以问题，只要有人“煽风点火”，从而再度生变，欧盟（“老欧洲”）必然大加利用，甚至可能得到俄罗斯的配合。一旦如此，以色列恐怕不能接受这种局面，特朗普政府“拆东墙补西墙”的平衡策略也将破产。关键在于，时间成本特朗普政府消耗不起！而许多中东国家，尤其是以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家的背后总有中国的影子。

最后就俄国防出口公司将在印度航展上展出“苏-57E”战机的新闻报道简单补充两句。

特朗普政府基于“合纵连横，远交近攻”策略，为了拉拢俄罗斯，不排除对印度贷款的可能性。也就是说，“苏-57E”战机是有可能出口到印度的。尽管俄罗斯在AI方面的一个潜在合作伙伴可以是印度，但由于美帝相对世界霸权的存在，印度恐怕只能寻求“DeepSeek+华为”的支持。所以，俄罗斯和印度在AI领域开展合作，本质上也绕不开中国。

Monday, February 10, 2025, Issue No. 1175

Oriental Commentary: China Sends High-level Delegation to Participate in the Paris AI Action Summit

[Media Coverage]

On February 10th, a two-day AI Action Summit opened in Paris. The summit was co-hosted by France and India. This is the third time such a summit has been held globally. *********'s special representative, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council Zhang Guoqing will attend the summit. Other dignitaries attending the summit include French President Emmanuel Macron, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and US Vice President [fictional name for the purpose of this translation] Vance, among others.

【Discussion Summary】

● As early as 2008, Oriental Current Affairs Interpretation made specific assessments of the major internal and external contradictions in the West.

Once again, we emphasize that in our observation, a series of actions taken by the Trump administration bear a striking resemblance to those of the Hitler regime in Nazi Germany before the outbreak of World War II. This is particularly evident in their efforts to conduct political purges domestically, eliminate dissidents, and strengthen authoritarian rule.

It is worth mentioning that as early as 2008, Oriental Current Affairs Interpretation made specific assessments of the major internal and external contradictions in the West, which mainly included:

First, there is an irreconcilable contradiction between the U.S. capital interests, which still represent the interests of Western capital, and the European capital interests, which are a part of Western capital interests.

Second, there is an irreconcilable contradiction between "U.S. capital interests and U.S. national interests."

Third, there is an irreconcilable contradiction between U.S. national interests and European national interests.

Fourth, there is an irreconcilable contradiction between the Western capital interests represented by U.S. capital and the interests of developing countries (Southern national interests) represented by China's national interests, particularly the irreconcilable contradiction between China and the United States.

Moreover, at this stage, the internal contradictions within U.S. capital, which represents the interests of Western capital, have also deepened and expanded under the intensification of a series of internal and external contradictions. One example of this is the conflict between the old U.S. military-industrial complex and the emerging U.S. technology conglomerate, with the sharpening of this contradiction specifically manifested in "the competition between the two for dominance over U.S. finance."

Furthermore, the relevant assessments and continuous observations of these changing contradictions are one of the main bases for our judgment on all changes in the Trump administration's foreign policy, which, despite its many variations, always revolves around the core issue of "internal strife." They are also one of the main bases for our observation of the changing relationships among different interest groups within the United States and even within the West.

●Isn't the Trump administration's Middle East policy a case of "pressing down one problem only to have another pop up"?

Before continuing our discussion, let's look at a news report:

On February 9th, according to Israeli media, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated at a cabinet meeting after concluding his visit to the United States that his meetings with U.S. President Trump and government officials had brought "opportunities that we never dreamed of" to Israel.

In our discussion on February 7th, we focused on the topic of the Trump administration's attempts to balance Europe and Russia on the Ukraine issue, only to find "pressing down one problem only to have another pop up": Firstly, on February 6th, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said that a freeze on the Russia-Ukraine conflict or a temporary ceasefire would be unacceptable because the West would use this to strengthen the military capabilities of the Kyiv regime; Secondly, also on February 6th, former German Chancellor Merkel rarely spoke out, stating that "a Russian victory in Ukraine is unacceptable."

The Trump administration is stretched thin on the Ukraine issue, and the same is true for the Middle East issue. If the United States were to really initiate a full withdrawal from Syria, setting aside its own considerations, it would inevitably elicit strong reactions from major Middle Eastern countries such as the EU, Russia, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. It's not hard to imagine that during the Biden administration, even when the situation in Syria entered the post-Assad regime period, it quickly became a case of "too many cooks spoil the broth." If the United States substantially withdraws its influence from Syria (and the Middle East), and with the internal "fierce fighting" in the United States heating up again, leaving the Trump administration preoccupied with domestic issues and unable to attend to other matters, one can only imagine how excited the various "warlords" would be.

Speaking of the internal "fierce fighting" in the United States heating up again, let's add some more context.

●The possibility cannot be ruled out that Musk may end up with a fate similar to that of Zhu Fu-yan

On February 9th, a post questioning the Federal Reserve appeared on social media. The post read: Why is it a big deal that Elon Musk supports Ron Paul leading an audit of the Federal Reserve? Because the Federal Reserve has never undergone a comprehensive audit, nor has it fully disclosed its monetary policy decisions. The "Department of Government Efficiency" and Musk should let Ron Paul, who has long criticized the Federal Reserve, lead the audit of the Federal Reserve. Subsequently, Musk replied, "Good idea. All government departments must be completely transparent, with no exceptions, including but not limited to the Federal Reserve."

In our observation and assessment, the reason Musk is floating the idea of investigating the Federal Reserve is probably because "Minister Musk's" "audit storm" has encountered enormous obstacles, and it is evident that this obstructive force comes from within American capital interests. It is even possible that some individuals or interest groups that once supported "Trump and his allies," including "Musks," are involved. From a partisan perspective, it can be said that "both Democrats and Republicans" are involved. Therefore, Musk's suggestion to investigate the Federal Reserve may not be a genuine intention to investigate, but rather a negotiating strategy based on the principle of "aim high, achieve in the middle," using it to bargain with the other side.

If we make an interesting comparison between the current situations of Trump and Musk and historical figures in China, in a sense, if Trump is compared to Emperor Wu of Han, then Musk is Zhu Fu-yan.

Zhu Fu-yan came from a humble background and experienced many setbacks in his career. After becoming a minister under Emperor Wu of Han, he demonstrated impressive work capabilities. For example, he assisted Emperor Wu in weakening the feudal lords and defeating the powerful enemy, the Xiongnu, through the "Enfeoffment Edict." On the other hand, due to his narrow-mindedness, vindictiveness, and exploitation of Emperor Wu's policies to maximize personal gains, he offended many people, especially the Liu noble family.

Originally, Emperor Wu did not want to execute Zhu Fu-yan, but the Chief Imperial Censor Gongsun Hong told the emperor that the Prince of Qi had died (committed suicide) without leaving any descendants, and his feudal domain was abolished and turned into a prefecture directly under the central government's jurisdiction. This was a very unfortunate event, and Zhu Fu-yan was the culprit behind this tragic event. If Your Majesty does not kill this man, it will be difficult to explain to the people of the world. So, Emperor Wu used this as a reason to execute Zhu Fu-yan and in exchange, other feudal lords continued to abide by the established policies that Emperor Wu was still pursuing. It is worth mentioning that, judging from various historical records, Emperor Wu was already aware of Zhu Fu-yan's misconduct and abuse of power for personal gain.

It is worth noting that the foreign policy pursued by the Trump administration is similar to the "Suppress the external enemy by first stabilizing the internal situation" strategy pursued by the Chiang Kai-shek reactionary group during the Anti-Japanese War. It can be said that the Trump administration's "suppressing the external enemy" primarily served "internal strife." As we mentioned earlier, the Trump administration mobilized all diplomatic resources primarily to serve "internal strife," disregarding the long-term interests of the United States and even partially harming Western capital interests. Therefore, if one day the situation becomes dire enough for the Trump administration, the possibility cannot be ruled out that Musk may end up with a fate similar to that of Zhu Fu-yan. We can see some signs of this in the awkward response of Trump to a cover of a well-known American magazine that stirred up "President Musk" (using a graphic design of Musk sitting behind the U.S. President's desk).

● A "Reality-to-Reality" "Deal" Between the Trump Administration and the Netanyahu Faction

In our long-term observation, Trump is a very unpredictable person, which is fully demonstrated in the 180-degree turn in the Syria policy of the Trump administration (from originally moving away from the Syria policy of the Biden administration as of November 5, 2024, to suddenly and rapidly adjusting in the short term to moving away from the "U.S. presidential candidate Trump" of the same date, even becoming "more Trump" than he was at that time).

Therefore, after concluding his visit to the United States and returning home, Netanyahu's remark that his meeting with the Trump administration presented Israel with "opportunities we never dreamed of" was, in a sense, heartfelt and sincere. It can be said that this was "a victory greater than a landslide," as Trump's so-called "commitment" to treat Gaza as "a huge real estate project" not only included the deployment of U.S. troops to the Gaza Strip and diplomatic coordination with other countries, but also encompassed reconstruction projects in the Gaza Strip and related financing plans. It was truly "extremely considerate." In order to "fight a better internal battle," Trump was willing to be Netanyahu's "helpful assistant."

Of course, in various aspects, especially in Netanyahu's eyes, amidst his "gratitude," he probably also understands the purpose behind Trump's actions. In other words, this "generosity" from Trump comes with an "expiration date." Since Trump views "Gaza as a huge real estate project," he can certainly implement this project in phases, which is a "conventional practice" in the real estate industry. Therefore, while the "first phase" may be beneficial to the Netanyahu faction, it does not necessarily mean that other phases will be the same. The key point is that Trump says whatever he needs at different stages, which is very realistic, even brutal. However, for the Netanyahu faction, as the saying goes, "seize the day and enjoy the moment; worry about tomorrow when it comes," since the "first phase" of Trump's "Gaza real estate project" is beneficial to them, they can use it to consolidate the Netanyahu regime first!

● Warning to the Japanese authorities: If the situation in Northeast Asia changes, Japan could face nuclear bombs.

Trump is indeed unpredictable, and such unpredictability is not entirely without gain. Look, the new Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, who was compelled to make his first visit to the United States, "adjusted" the plan for Nippon Steel to acquire U.S. Steel to an investment. Furthermore, Ishiba pledged to increase investments in the United States to USD 1 trillion, and Japan and the United States will also cooperate on energy issues, among other things. Yet, it was only about a month ago, on January 6th, that the same Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba issued a warning to then U.S. President Biden, stating that blocking Nippon Steel's USD 14.1 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel could affect bilateral trade between the two countries. The reason why Ishiba's first visit to the United States was seen as a reluctant move is likely closely related to the severe COVID-19 situation in Japan and the consecutive car accidents in December 2024 and February 2025. Of course, it also involves Ishiba's failure to coax China into lifting the sanctions on Japanese seafood, which he had been eagerly anticipating, but we will not elaborate on that here.

On February 7th, we noticed that the Korean Central News Agency published a commentary stating that nuclear weapons are not bargaining chips but are used to confront enemies that threaten the peace of the Korean people and the world.

The international community will not indulge Ishiba's behavior. A warning is issued to the Japanese authorities: If the situation in Northeast Asia changes, Japan could face nuclear bombs. Don't forget, Japan has unresolved historical grievances with three countries (nuclear-weapon states, two of which are nuclear powers) — China, Russia, and North Korea. Moreover, Japan has territorial disputes with China, Russia, and South Korea. Besides, North Korea and Russia have a military alliance. If the situations in the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, or the South China Sea change, Japan is likely to become a cannon fodder for the United States. Don't forget, in addition to the Ryukyu issue, Hokkaido is not territory that rightfully belongs to Japan either. If Japan is attacked, it will not only be attacked in vain, but it may even be unable to determine who attacked it (if a North Korean submarine launches a nuclear attack on Japan in "disputed waters," it may be difficult for Japan to identify the attacker). And the Trump administration would not sacrifice its own interests for Japan.

● The "Stargate" Financing Project Dearly Cherished by the "Trumps" Aims to Force All Parties to Take Sides on Non-Traditional Security Issues, But This Is No Longer Feasible

The international community's warnings to the Trump administration are not only about foreign issues concerning Japan, but also about the "unite and divide, befriend the distant and attack the near" strategy that the Trump administration has been hyping up since it came into power. Moreover, based on the AI front, this strategy has been taken to a "new height".

We noted that on February 10th, the two-day AI Action Summit opened in Paris. China sent a high-level delegation to the summit, attracting attention from all parties.

In our observation and assessment, since the Trump administration is targeting Sino-Russian strategic trust with its "unite and divide, befriend the distant and attack the near" strategy, the international community might as well target the EU, the closest ally of the United States, with the same strategy. The most important thing is to let the EU, especially "Old Europe", know that AI can be played without being tightly controlled by the US. By participating in the AI Action Summit held in Paris, the capital of France, with such a high-level delegation, the international community aims to send a clear signal to the EU, especially "Old Europe": If India has the confidence to play with AI, why can't the EU ("Old Europe")?

Perhaps this clear signal has first stimulated a certain desire in "Old Europe" regarding the "complex transfer of Western capital". It should be noted that with the ongoing "fierce internal struggle" in the United States, the "Soros group" of the "Bidens" has already fled to Europe, and the "Gates group" is preparing to do the same. It seems that the possibility of a "complex transfer of Western capital" to the European platform is higher than ever. With China's support, why can't the EU become the "third pole in the world" in the field of AI? After China has made comprehensive and systematic breakthroughs in hardware and software, the US's attempt to continue to dominate the world and manipulate Europe through AI technology hegemony has been foiled! If the "DeepSeek + Huawei" model can be replicated in the Middle East, in Russia, and even in India, why can't it be replicated in Europe? Obviously, after this signal appeared, the "Stargate" financing project dearly cherished by the Trump administration, which aims to force all parties to take sides on non-traditional security issues, is no longer feasible.

On February 9th, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that investments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) in France will reach 109 billion euros in the coming years. Macron said that the 109 billion euros will come from investments by the United Arab Emirates in building an AI park in France, as well as from large investment funds from the United States and Canada, and investments from French companies.

In our view, if we disregard the China factor, what the Trump administration is doing is actually driving fish into the abyss on the issue of the "complex transfer of Western capital". One may ask, when the international community has sent a clear signal to the EU, especially "Old Europe", and strongly stimulated its "strong desire" on the issue of the "complex transfer of Western capital", and in the face of the possibility of the EU becoming a "world-class" player in the field of AI, will the US try to stop it or not? If it does, does the Trump administration have the energy to do so? Ironically, it seems that Trump's potential enemies are all leaning towards the EU, and the number of times the EU has "spoken loudly" to the US in international affairs is increasing. When the far-right regime in Japan becomes a potential adversary of the EU due to its closeness to the US, the EU is likely to accelerate its rapprochement with China. With the Trump administration's adjustments to its relations with China having little effect, or even backfiring, how can it continue to play its "unite and divide, befriend the distant and attack the near" strategy? The EU, the closest ally of the US, has become the target of the international community's "unite and divide, befriend the distant and attack the near" strategy. Is there anything more ironic than this outcome?

Once the EU joins in, the world will be at least divided into three levels in the field of AI: China, the US, and Europe, and everyone will compete to win over Russia, Japan, South Korea, India, Africa, and others. Since the US is on the path of hegemony and practices imperialism, it will inevitably suppress the development of Europe and Russia, which provides China with vast room for maneuver in its efforts to unite and divide. Russia is likely to make a choice between China and Europe, which means that it will be more difficult and costly for the US to play its "unite and divide" strategy by undermining Sino-Russian strategic trust. It is not difficult to see that among the so-called "three levels", China is a true level, while the US is a false one. Europe and Russia are well aware of this. In this great game based on AI, China is bound to win. Therefore, we don't care about the outcome, only the process.

● Trump Administration's balancing strategy of "robbing Peter to pay Paul" appears particularly fragile in the Middle East issue.

We have noticed that U.S. President Trump, when asked about the Iran issue in a recent interview, stated: "I would like to reach an agreement with Iran on non-nuclear issues. I would rather do that than just blow them up. They don't want to die, nobody wants to die. And if we made a deal, Israel would not be bombing them."

In our view, although Iran's foreign policy remains on a path of "surrenderism," the Trump administration dare not relax its efforts to continue pressuring Iran, and must "straddle two sides" in its expressions – it must continue to pressure Iran while also satisfying the Netanyahu faction's words, and especially actions, towards the U.S. continuing to pressure Iran. Of course, for Israel, the strategic option of a military strike against Iran cannot be ruled out; otherwise, what if Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries turn to Iran to "discuss plans"?

It is not difficult to see that the Trump administration's strategy for pressuring Iran is to continue isolating the Iranian authorities through coercion and inducement, minimizing the possibility of Iran conspiring with other Middle Eastern countries on issues such as Syria "behind closed doors." Otherwise, if the situation in Gaza changes, Iran, which has always harbored the idea of "effectively returning to Syria" and portrays itself as a potential ally for all parties, will inevitably cause trouble. This concern is not unfounded; recently, the Turkish Foreign Minister explicitly stated that the possibility of renewed conflict in Gaza is objectively present.

Worse still, the Israeli-Palestinian issue, represented by the Gaza issue, once someone "fans the flames" and it flares up again, will surely be exploited by the EU ("Old Europe"), possibly even with the cooperation of Russia. If this happens, Israel may not be able to accept this situation, and the Trump administration's balancing strategy of "robbing Peter to pay Paul" will collapse. The key is that the Trump administration cannot afford the time cost! Moreover, many Middle Eastern countries, especially the Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia, always have China's shadow behind them.

Lastly, a brief addition regarding the news report that Russia's Rostec will showcase the "Su-57E" fighter jet at the Indian Air Show.

Based on a strategy of "forming alliances and dividing enemies, befriending distant states while attacking nearby ones," the Trump administration, in order to win over Russia, does not rule out the possibility of providing loans to India. That is to say, the "Su-57E" fighter jet may be exported to India. Although Russia's potential partner in AI could be India, due to the existence of U.S. hegemony in the world, India may only seek support from "DeepSeek + Huawei." Therefore, any cooperation between Russia and India in the AI field essentially cannot bypass China.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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