2025年2月7日，星期五，第1173期

各方都明白特朗普政府玩的是权宜之计，于是纷纷采取“紧盯跟人”方式，加速谋求己方利益

【媒体报道】

2月5日，叙利亚当局称，叙过渡时期总统艾哈迈德·沙拉接到了法国总统马克龙的电话，后者对其表示祝贺并邀请其赴法访问。报道称，法国总统府称，马克龙向沙拉传递了三个信息：叙利亚过渡进程要符合“叙利亚人民意愿”，叙利亚库尔德人要“充分融入”到进程中，“必须继续打击恐怖主义”。

2月6日，俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃说，冻结俄乌冲突或临时停火都是不可接受的，因为西方会利用这一点来加强基辅政权的军事力量。

2月6日，美国总统特朗普表示，他将与国会合作，确保可以尽快采用新的电脑化空中交通管制系统。他还表示，其他国家使用的系统远比美国先进，他的私人飞机就是在使用另一个国家生产的系统。

2月6日，针对华盛顿军用直升机与客机相撞事件，特朗普将之与“高尔夫球在半空中不会互撞”作比较。特朗普表示，在练习场内，球到处飞，但他从未见过高尔夫球会在半空击中另一个球。特朗普称，目前空管设备过时，人手也不足，他猜事发时直升机飞得过高，虽然仍然有待调查，但这次事故促成空管系统进行现代化改造，特朗普强调，“这将是一个全新的，而不是拼凑出来的系统”。

【讨论纪要】

●方方面面，尤其是欧盟和俄罗斯都看懂了，特朗普政府玩的不过是权宜之计

2月5日，据美国媒体援引知情人士消息报道，特朗普政府将于下周在德国举行的慕尼黑安全会议（慕安会）上提出一项结束俄乌冲突计划，内容可能包括暂时冻结当前战线。随后，在特朗普政府就乌克兰问题“吹风”的“第二时间”，也就是2月6日，俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃回应称，冻结俄乌冲突或临时停火都是不可接受的，称西方会利用这一点来加强基辅政权的军事力量。

在我们看来，俄方在“第一时间”没有就特朗普政府关于将于下周在德国举行的慕尼黑安全会议（慕安会）上提出一项结束俄乌冲突计划提出质疑，尽管其中提到了“可能包括暂时冻结当前战线”这一点，显然是对特朗普政府仍抱有不切实际的幻想。而在“第二时间”明确指出俄方不接受“冻结俄乌冲突或临时停火”，意在警告特朗普政府，俄方不会接受没有胜利情况下结束的俄乌战争。而在同一天，德国前总理默克尔罕见发声，称“俄罗斯在乌克兰的胜利不可接受”。

特朗普政府想要在乌克兰问题上同时让欧、俄感到满意，很难。而之所以“如此难，也要做”，主要原因就在于，特朗普政府明显通过动用美国的外交资源，以牺牲美国国家利益为代价，为自己所在的利益集团能够在美国日趋激烈的“内斗”中不落下风争取外部支撑空间。

值得一提的是，美国通过放风准备从叙利亚撤军的消息向欧洲传递，美国准备将叙利亚问题主导权让渡给欧盟的信号。但在我们看来，如果美国玩的是真的，以色列就会第一个跳出来表示反对，而当前，特朗普政府巴结内塔尼亚胡小集团还来不及，有怎么真的让以色列强烈反对的事情呢？此外，在乌克兰问题上美国也不能退。因为只要美国一退，北约就没了，而北约是支撑美国全球战略的两大安全核心之一。没有北约，特朗普又何谈在美国内部激烈的“恶斗”中立足？

所以，方方面面，尤其是欧盟和俄罗斯都看懂了，特朗普政府玩的是权宜之计，这意味着特朗普在乌克兰问题上也好，在中东问题也罢，所谓的妥协和让步只是临时性的。一旦特朗普政府腾出手来，恐怕会立刻换副嘴脸。

●各方纷纷采取“紧盯跟人”方式，加速谋求己方利益

美国内部的“恶斗”到了什么程度，我们可以从特朗普自曝其私人飞机用别国交管系统一事中看出端倪。在堂堂美利坚合众国总统特朗普眼中，美国对他而言，已经到处都是“死亡陷阱”。而有“马部长”之称的马斯克则显得更加“悲壮”——2月5日，网上出现了一个关于马斯克安排后事的视频。马斯克在视频中说，“假如我不幸遭遇不测，公司董事会将会把寻找一位持有相同远大愿景的继任者作为首要任务。”

不难看出，美国内部“恶斗”的参与双方，已经到了水火不容，不是你死就是我亡的地步，而越是这样，参与恶斗的双方就也需要“寻求外援”，这种现象在中国古代可谓比比皆是。所谓“寻求外援”的意思在于，主观或客观上借助外部策应，力求己方在“恶斗”中不落下风。

说到“寻求外援”，如果落在中国周边地区，目前阶段，中国比较感兴趣的是南海问题。也就是说，如果美国人想要用在南海问题上的妥协、让步换取中国不要在美国公开大规模印钞的问题上加以干涉，中国则可以考虑和美国人聊聊。至于台湾问题，中国则不会与美国做任何交易。

在我们看来，如今的美军在第一，第二岛链已经没有和PLA交手的勇气了。也许用不了多久，美国就会变为“第二个俄罗斯”——将核武经常性挂在嘴边，正所谓“常规军力不够只能核武来凑”！值得一提的是，如果美国最终在南海问题上将妥协和让步做到底，则在性质上类似当年英国（英镑）向美国（美元）让渡世界霸权。当然，中国不追求霸权，更反对霸权。但意思类似，也就是通过一种相对和平的方式，让渡“世界第一”的位置。

如果我们将上述讨论具象化到菲律宾领土的法理性范围问题上，在美帝日落西山的背景下，尤其对菲律宾这种相对封闭的社会，包括菲律宾国内的某些政客，反华势力等进行近距离直面震慑是有必要的。尤其让他们直观感受到，在中国对其进行直接震慑的整个过程中，美国始终保持相对低调。

通过上两节的讨论，大家不难看出，各方，尤其是国际局势的主要参与方，如，中国，欧盟，俄罗斯等，或者说，或已经，或准备加入美国全球战略收缩背景下所谓“合纵连横”的方方面面来说，对于特朗普政府玩的权宜之计是心知肚明的，所以，最重要的莫过于抓紧时间，抓住时机，采取“紧盯跟人”的方式，尽可能地利用美国内部“恶斗”再次白热化，特朗普政府无暇他顾的节骨眼儿，更多谋求己方利益。甚至不排除在不久的将来，俄罗斯正式就“重返叙利亚问题”向美国正式提出诉求。

而对特朗普政府，或“特朗普们”而言，问题的复杂性远不止于此，还有已经逃到欧洲的“拜登们”之“索罗斯们”也会从中作梗，他们同样是资本势力，同样是代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益的一部分，甚至部分已经变为欧洲资本利益的一分子。所以，双方恶斗的范围显然不局限于乌克兰和叙利亚。

●国际社会务必在生物战、网络战等方面，做好应对西方邪恶势力狗急跳墙的准备

2月4日，在某美国媒体播出的节目上，比尔·盖茨透露称，他最近在海湖庄园与美国总统特朗普会谈三个小时，劝说他不要让美国政府停止资助预防艾滋病毒和脊髓灰质炎在全球传播的相关科研项目。在节目中，虽然盖茨对马斯克“在私营部门的工作成绩”大加赞赏，但他对马斯克团队叫停“可以拯救生命”的美国国际开发署部分业务表示不满。此前，马斯克将美国国际开发署形容成是一个“犯罪组织”，需要“被送进木屑机”，因为上面长满了“虫子”。

对此，盖茨表示：“我的基金会与美国国际开发署在营养和疫苗方面开展合作，知道吗，那里面有很多了不起的人，在那里工作的并不是虫子。”盖茨还称，他希望马斯克本人和特朗普政府能够意识到美国国际开发署部分业务的重要性，并声称如果不恢复，“可能会有数百万人死亡”。

有消息称，比尔·盖茨曾深度参与到某些生化项目的研发过程中。从上述美国媒体爆料的内容看，至少证明比尔·盖茨与美国国际开发署之间，在某些涉及疫苗等内容的生化项目上又有着密切联系。

此外，从中国已经开启对谷歌、苹果和英特尔立案调查进程的情况看，微软加入被立案调查的行列恐怕只是时间问题。从比尔·盖茨的为人和言论可以断定，微软的视窗操作系统是不可靠的。中国必须有自己的操作系统。而结合比尔·盖茨“可能会有数百万人死亡”的描述一并观察，国际社会务必在生物战方面，做好应对西方邪恶势力狗急跳墙的准备。

●欧盟“顺势而为”，逼着美国在中东让渡真金白银的利益

最后，我们就今天讨论的主要内容做一个总结。

由于美国内部“恶斗”不断升级，极度缺乏“安全感”的特朗普政府以及“特朗普们”开始动用一切外交资源，以不惜损害美国国家长远利益，甚至损害西方资本的部分利益为手段，最大程度上使己方在“恶斗”中不落下风。

以乌克兰问题为例，美国试图平衡俄罗斯和欧盟，具体方式就是，围绕“冻结战线”和“临时停战”等问题，左右横跳。结果却是压住了葫芦瓢又起（俄罗斯和欧盟都不买账）。于是，特朗普政府不得不在叙利亚问题上进行“找补”，也就是通过炒作“美军撤离叙利亚，考虑将叙利亚问题主导权交予欧盟”等话题“忽悠”欧盟。但欧盟早就对特朗普玩权宜之计心知肚明，于是有了法国总统马克龙把电话打到了叙利亚临时政府“约法三章”的一幕。说白了就是逼着美国让渡真金白银的利益，比如，库尔德人问题，美国是不是要有个说法？

所谓“说法”的意思就是，要么为欧洲所用（叙利亚过渡进程要符合“叙利亚人民意愿”，叙利亚库尔德人要“充分融入”到进程中），要么就是恐怖分子，人人得而诛之（“必须继续打击恐怖主义”）。否则，不排除欧盟在叙利亚问题上联合土耳其、沙特等“地方王国家”，拉拢俄罗斯，甚至引入中国，首先基于“重新定义恐怖主义”层面把美国挤出中东。

Friday, February 7, 2025, Issue No. 1173

All parties understand that the Trump administration is playing a stopgap measure, so they have adopted a "close monitoring and following" approach to accelerate the pursuit of their own interests.

[Media Coverage]

On February 5th, Syrian authorities stated that Syrian transitional president Ahmed Jarba received a call from French President Emmanuel Macron, who congratulated him and invited him to visit France. According to reports, the French presidency said Macron conveyed three messages to Jarba: the Syrian transition process should align with the "will of the Syrian people," Syrian Kurds should be "fully integrated" into the process, and the "fight against terrorism must continue." On February 6th, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that a freeze on the Russia-Ukraine conflict or a temporary ceasefire would be unacceptable because the West would use this to strengthen the military capabilities of the Kyiv regime.

On February 6th, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he would work with Congress to ensure the adoption of a new computerized air traffic control system as soon as possible. He also said that systems used by other countries are far more advanced than the one in the United States, and his private jet uses a system produced by another country.

Also on February 6th, regarding the collision between a military helicopter and a passenger plane in Washington, Trump compared it to "golf balls not colliding in mid-air." Trump said that on the practice range, balls fly everywhere, but he has never seen a golf ball hit another ball in mid-air. Trump claimed that the current air traffic control equipment is outdated and understaffed, and he guessed that the helicopter was flying too high at the time of the accident. Although the investigation is still ongoing, this incident has prompted the modernization of the air traffic control system. Trump emphasized, "This will be a brand-new system, not a patched-together one."

【Discussion Summary】

●All aspects, especially the EU and Russia, understand that the Trump administration is only playing a stopgap measure.

On February 5th, according to U.S. media citing sources familiar with the matter, the Trump administration will propose a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Germany next week, which may include a temporary freeze of the current front lines. Subsequently, on February 6th, in response to the "second round" of the Trump administration's "briefing" on the Ukraine issue, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that a freeze on the Russia-Ukraine conflict or a temporary ceasefire would be unacceptable, claiming that the West would use this to strengthen the military capabilities of the Kyiv regime.

In our view, Russia did not question the Trump administration's plan to propose a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Germany next week at the "first time," despite the mention of a "possible temporary freeze of the current front lines." This clearly shows that Russia still has unrealistic fantasies about the Trump administration. However, at the "second time," Russia clearly stated that it would not accept a "freeze on the Russia-Ukraine conflict or a temporary ceasefire," intending to warn the Trump administration that Russia will not accept ending the Russia-Ukraine war without victory. On the same day, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel rarely spoke out, saying that "Russia's victory in Ukraine is unacceptable."

It is difficult for the Trump administration to satisfy both Europe and Russia on the Ukraine issue. The main reason for "doing it even though it's so difficult" is that the Trump administration is obviously using U.S. diplomatic resources to seek external support space for its interest group in the increasingly fierce "internal struggle" in the United States, at the expense of U.S. national interests.

It is worth mentioning that the United States has signaled to Europe by releasing information about its intention to withdraw troops from Syria, indicating that it is prepared to cede dominance over the Syrian issue to the EU. However, in our view, if the United States were serious, Israel would be the first to object. And currently, the Trump administration is too busy pandering to the Netanyahu group to do anything that would strongly oppose Israel. Furthermore, the United States cannot backtrack on the Ukraine issue. Because if the United States withdraws, NATO will cease to exist, and NATO is one of the two core security pillars supporting the U.S. global strategy. Without NATO, how can Trump establish a foothold in the fierce "internal struggle" in the United States?

Therefore, all aspects, especially the EU and Russia, understand that the Trump administration is only playing a stopgap measure. This means that Trump's so-called compromises and concessions, whether on the Ukraine issue or in the Middle East, are only temporary. Once the Trump administration frees up its hands, it is likely to immediately change its tune.

● All parties are eagerly adopting a "close monitoring and following" approach to expedite the pursuit of their own interests

The extent of the "fierce internal battle" within the United States can be glimpsed from the fact that Trump revealed his private jet used another country's air traffic management system. In the eyes of Donald Trump, the President of the United States of America, his own country has become full of "death traps". And Elon Musk, known as the "Minister of Mars," appears even more "tragic" – on February 5th, a video of Musk arranging his last wishes appeared online. Musk said in the video, "If I unfortunately meet with misfortune, the company's board of directors will make it their top priority to find a successor who shares the same grand vision."

It is not difficult to see that the two sides involved in the "fierce internal battle" within the United States have reached a point where they are irreconcilable, and it's a matter of life and death. The more this is the case, the more both sides involved in the fierce battle need to "seek external assistance," a phenomenon that is ubiquitous in ancient China. The meaning of "seeking external assistance" lies in subjectively or objectively leveraging external support to strive for an advantage in the "fierce battle."

Speaking of "seeking external assistance," if it falls in China's neighboring regions, at this stage, China is particularly interested in the South China Sea issue. That is to say, if the Americans want to exchange compromises and concessions on the South China Sea issue for China's non-interference in the issue of the US massively printing money, China could consider talking to the Americans. As for the Taiwan issue, China will not make any deals with the United States.

In our view, the US military now lacks the courage to engage with the PLA in the first and second island chains. Perhaps it won't be long before the United States becomes the "second Russia" – frequently invoking nuclear weapons, as the saying goes, "when conventional military power is insufficient, nuclear weapons must make up for it"! It's worth mentioning that if the United States ultimately makes compromises and concessions on the South China Sea issue to the end, it would be similar in nature to when Britain (the pound sterling) ceded world hegemony to the United States (the US dollar). Of course, China does not pursue hegemony and opposes hegemony. But the meaning is similar, which is to cede the position of "world number one" through a relatively peaceful means.

If we concretize the above discussion to the issue of the legal and rational scope of Philippine territory, against the backdrop of the declining American empire, it is necessary to conduct close-range and direct deterrence against relatively closed societies like the Philippines, including certain politicians and anti-China forces within the country. Especially to make them intuitively feel that throughout the process of China's direct deterrence against them, the United States has maintained a relatively low profile.

Through the discussions in the previous two sections, it is not difficult to see that all parties, especially the major players in the international situation, such as China, the European Union, and Russia, or those who have already or are preparing to join the so-called "alliance and counter-alliance" strategy under the backdrop of the US global strategic retraction, are well aware of the expedient tactics played by the Trump administration. Therefore, the most important thing is to seize the time and opportunity, adopt a "close monitoring and following" approach, and leverage the moment when the internal "fierce battle" in the United States heats up again and the Trump administration is preoccupied with other matters, to seek as much of their own interests as possible. It is even possible that in the near future, Russia will formally raise the issue of "returning to Syria" with the United States.

For the Trump administration or "Trumps," the complexity of the issue goes far beyond this. There are also the "Soroses" of the "Bidens" who have fled to Europe and will stir up trouble. They are also capital forces and part of the US capital interests that represent Western capital interests, and some have even become part of European capital interests. Therefore, the scope of the fierce battle between the two sides is clearly not limited to Ukraine and Syria.

● The international community must prepare for desperate moves by Western evil forces in biological and cyber warfare

On February 4th, on a program broadcast by a US media outlet, Bill Gates revealed that he recently held a three-hour meeting with US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, persuading him not to have the US government stop funding research projects to prevent the global spread of HIV and polio. During the program, although Gates praised Musk's "work achievements in the private sector," he expressed dissatisfaction with Musk's team's halt of certain USAID operations that "could save lives." Previously, Musk described USAID as a "criminal organization" that needed to be "put in a woodchipper" because it was infested with "bugs."

In response, Gates said, "My foundation collaborates with USAID on nutrition and vaccines, you know, there are a lot of great people there, and it's not bugs working there." Gates also said he hoped that Musk himself and the Trump administration would recognize the importance of certain USAID operations and claimed that if they were not resumed, "millions of people could die."

It is reported that Bill Gates was deeply involved in the research and development of certain biological projects. From the content revealed by the US media mentioned above, it at least proves that there is a close connection between Bill Gates and USAID in certain biological projects involving vaccines.

Furthermore, judging from the fact that China has initiated investigation proceedings against Google, Apple, and Intel, it is only a matter of time before Microsoft joins the list of companies under investigation. Judging from Bill Gates' character and remarks, it can be concluded that Microsoft's Windows operating system is unreliable. China must have its own operating system. And observing this together with Bill Gates' description that "millions of people could die," the international community must prepare for desperate moves by Western evil forces in biological warfare.

● The EU "goes with the flow" and forces the US to cede genuine interests in the Middle East

Finally, let's summarize the main content of today's discussion.

Due to the escalating "fierce internal battle" within the United States, the Trump administration and the "Trumps," who are severely lacking in "security," have begun to use all diplomatic resources, resorting to means that harm the long-term interests of the United States and even some interests of Western capital, to maximize their advantage in the "fierce battle."

Taking the Ukraine issue as an example, the United States attempts to balance Russia and the EU by vacillating on issues such as "freezing the front line" and "temporary ceasefire." The result, however, is that one problem is solved, and another arises (neither Russia nor the EU is buying it). As a result, the Trump administration had to "make up for it" on the Syria issue, that is, by hyping topics such as "the withdrawal of US troops from Syria and considering transferring the leadership on the Syria issue to the EU" to "deceive" the EU. But the EU has long been aware of Trump's expedient tactics, hence the phone call from French President Macron to the Syrian interim government to "lay down three rules." In simple terms, it is forcing the United States to cede genuine interests, such as the Kurdish issue – does the United States have an explanation for this?

The meaning of "explanation" is either to be used by Europe (the Syrian transition process must align with the "will of the Syrian people," and Syrian Kurds must be "fully integrated" into the process), or they are terrorists and everyone should fight against them ("the fight against terrorism must continue"). Otherwise, the EU does not rule out joining forces with "regional kingdoms" such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia on the Syria issue, courting Russia, and even bringing in China, to first push the United States out of the Middle East based on "redefining terrorism."

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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