2025年1月25日，星期六，第1167期

随着特朗普解密“肯尼迪遇刺案”剩余保密文件，“西方资本复杂转进”进程出现了哪些新变化？

【媒体报道】

1月24日，欧洲央行行长、国际货币基金组织前总裁拉加德在达沃斯世界经济论坛上表示，特朗普就任美国总统后，一些居民可能会移居欧洲。她建议欧洲国家积极引进这些“人才”，并且更积极地看待自己的经济实力。

【讨论纪要】

●对于急于访华的特朗普来说，如果国务卿鲁比奥因中国制裁无法遂行，恐怕很难对访华冠以“成功”二字

2025年1月24日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅应约同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话。

值得大家注意的是，首先，这次通话与2025年1月17日，*******应约同美国当选总统特朗普通电话一样是“应约通话”；其次，从时隔一周，美国总统到美国国务卿两次主动将电话打入北京的情况不难看出，特朗普政府，上至总统，下至国务卿，都急于与中方建立联系；最后，之所以美国国务卿鲁比奥能把电话打入北京，与其在“言行”层面改弦更张密切相关。

在继续展开讨论前，我们来看两则新闻报道：

2025年1月22日外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。

有美国记者提问，中方是否更改了美国国务卿鲁比奥的中文译名？如果属实，这一变动是否与他受制裁有关？毛宁表示，我还没有注意到你提到的情况。我想，与中文译名相比，更重要的是他的英文名字。关于制裁，我的同事昨天已经介绍了中方立场。我可以告诉你的是，中方制裁针对的是损害中国正当利益的言行。

1月21日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆就美国记者提问进行回应。美国记者提问称，鲁比奥确认出任特朗普政府的国务卿。鲁比奥于2020年被中国制裁。鉴于这明显会给中美关系有益发展带来复杂因素或制造障碍，中方是否考虑解除对鲁制裁？郭嘉昆表示，中方将坚定维护国家利益，同时中美两国高层级官员有必要以适当方式保持接触。

众所周知，早在2020年8月10日，中方对在涉港问题上表现恶劣的美国联邦参议员鲁比奥、克鲁兹等11名美方人士实施制裁。而在上个月，也就是2020年7月，鲁比奥已曾因涉疆问题被实施制裁。讽刺的是，就是这样一个在美国政坛上以“反华急先锋”闻名的鲁比奥，刚担任美国国务卿不到两天就“一反常态”，在刚刚出席其上任后首场外交活动——四方安全会谈期间，在全场讨论中，鲁比奥硬是对中国议题“选择性失明”，除了泛泛而谈了一些区域安全合作话题外，对中国只字不提。

此前东方时事解读曾经就特朗普或启用鲁比奥为美国新任国务卿一事做出过初步评估。由于中国对鲁比奥的制裁尚未解除，如果特朗普想要妥善处理对华关系，只有两种可能性：其一，不启用鲁比奥；其二，鲁比奥首先于“言行”层面改弦更张。

不难想象，对于急于访华的特朗普来说，如果国务卿鲁比奥因中国制裁无法遂行，恐怕很难对访华冠以“成功”二字。正所谓，解铃还须系铃人，这或是本应“新官上任三把火”的“反华急先锋”鲁比奥，在四方会谈的整个过程中，对中国问题再也不敢胡说八道的主要原因所在。也正因此，其电话才被允许打入北京。

值得一提的是，在通话中，鲁比奥做了“美方愿同中方坦诚沟通，妥处分歧”“美方不支持‘台湾独立’”等一系列表态。而在通话最后，王毅外长说了这样一句话，那就是：“希望你好自为之，为中美两国人民的未来，为世界的和平与稳定发挥建设性作用。”有趣的是，对于这句话，多家外媒翻译各不相同，基本采用类似“负责任地行动”和“做出正确的决策（定）”这样的说法。但在中国外交部官网发布的通稿中，使用了“好自为之”四个字，不可谓不严厉。

●无论叙利亚是谁主政，面对的首要问题都是“开门七件事”

妥善处理对华关系只是特朗普政府在对内、对外层面，有可能将其鼓吹、炒作的“美国或战略收缩”，以及“合纵连横、远交近攻”策略“玩起来”的基本前提。也就是说，就算特朗普政府在任期内能够妥善处理对华关系，也不意味着美国的战略处境会发生本质性好转。

下面我们不妨继续观察，在特朗普政府于对内、对外层面不断鼓吹、炒作“美国或战略收缩”，以及“合纵连横、远交近攻”背景下方方面面的一些最新变化。

1月24日，我们注意到印度外交部第一副部长米斯里将在访华期间会见中方同仁的新闻报道。据印方提供的消息，米斯里将于2025年1月26日至27日访问北京，出席印中外长和副外长机制会议。印度外交部指出，恢复这一双边机制是遵循两国领导层达成的关于探讨政治、经济和人际关系领域印中关系下一步发展问题协议。

在我们看来，对印度外交部第一副部长米斯里访华一事并不感到奇怪。此前东方时事解读就曾做出过相关评估，在特朗普大玩“美国或战略收缩”，以及“合纵连横、远交近攻”的背景下，不排除欧盟（法国、德国）、俄罗斯、日本、韩国、伊朗等相关国家政要抢在特朗普访华之前先行访华的可能性。印度外交部第一副部长米斯里访华是对这一初步评估的进一步验证。

1月24日，沙特阿拉伯外交大臣费萨尔·本·法尔汉·阿勒沙特对叙利亚进行了正式访问，并在访问期间会见了叙利亚高层官员，双方就区域安全、经济合作以及推动叙利亚重建的具体计划等问题开展讨论。

在我们看来，在阿萨德政权被颠覆后，随着“各路诸侯”纷纷介入叙利亚局势后续发展，对叙利亚问题“很上心”的人很多，比如，美国、欧盟、俄罗斯、土耳其、伊朗等。然而，不管有多少人盯着叙利亚，不管叙利亚临时政府偏向谁，受谁影响较大，只要叙利亚作为一个国家存续一天，当政者都是“开门七件事”，也就是说，首先要解决“肚子问题”。所以，叙利亚目前最需要的就是，解除制裁并进行重建。

沙特为首的海湾国家是目前积极介入叙利亚局势后续发展的重要一方，但在沙特看来，对于重建叙利亚这样浩大的工程，也许在提供资金的问题上还能有所作为，但其他方面，尤其是基建和各类商品、物资的供应和生产上，沙特耐莫能助。而遍观世界，只有一个国家可以完美解决这一难题，那就是中国。不难想象的是，随着叙利亚重建进程的开启，来自沙特的订单一定会如雪片一样飞来。中国什么也没做，但似乎有什么都做了。看不到中国公开介入，但处处都是中国的影子。国际社会就这样通过沙特，间接影响叙利亚（中东）局势的后续发展。

●只要在“私有制”下，这种“短视性”的出现就不可避免

1月24日，俄罗斯总统普京表示，俄罗斯已做好就乌克兰问题进行谈判的准备，但是仍有一些问题需要特别引起注意。

也许普京和特朗普真的很想就乌克兰问题见面喝杯咖啡，但问题是如何谈。在我们看来，特朗普政府目前急于稳定中东和乌克兰局势，但这两个局势早已紧密互动，且并非“相向而行”。也就是说，特朗普在普京谈乌克兰问题，一定会受到欧洲同样高度关注乌克兰局势发展，且已经介入叙利亚（中东）局势后续发展至欧盟的牵制。讽刺的是，美国的中东政策之所以困难到如此地步，都拜本次围绕美国总统大选，美国内部乃至西方内部的全方位“恶斗”所赐。

某种意义上说，拜登政府为一己私利搞乱叙利亚局势，不仅损害了美国国家长远利益，更损害了目前仍代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益（包括“拜登们”代表的一部分美国资本利益，也包括“特朗普们”代表的一部分美国资本利益），甚至损害了西方资本的整体利益。

值得一提是，拜登小集团在损害其代表的那部分美国资本利益的同时，也在损害自己小集团的长远利益，但那个时候的拜登政府已经顾不上了，凸显其在政治上的“短视性”，而这种“短视性”在西方内部的不同利益集团都不同程度地存在。可以说，只要在“私有制”下，这种“短视性”的出现就不可避免。在这个问题上，可以说，跨越时空，跨越民族，跨越文化。

●今天所谓的“西方资本复杂转进”进程变似客观在乎成了因惧怕被残酷清算而不得不进行的“大逃亡”

1月24日，欧洲央行行长、国际货币基金组织前总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在达沃斯世界经济论坛上表示，特朗普就任美国总统后，一些居民可能会移居欧洲。她建议欧洲国家积极引进这些“人才”，并且更积极地看待自己的经济实力。

在我们看来，拉加德的言论是此前匈牙利总理欧尔班有关“索罗斯输掉了美国的战斗，特朗普胜利成其滑铁卢”言论的后续发展。某种意义上说，也是“西方资本利益复杂转进”进程后续演化的一个具体表现。在我们看来，拉加德这番话显然是冲着“索罗斯们”，甚至“拜登们”说的。

在我们的观察与评估中，作为代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益的主体，目前还没有做出最后选择。值得一提的是，一旦特朗普政府将其“战略收缩”策略落实到“不可逆”，或意味着代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益最终选择“复杂转进”至“美国平台”。这或是拉加德提前准备，“拉钱，更是在拉人”的主要原因。

值得注意的是，1月25日，美国总统特朗普日前签署行政令，解密美国前总统约翰·肯尼迪、他的弟弟罗伯特·肯尼迪以及黑人民权运动领袖马丁·路德·金遇刺案的全部剩余档案。而在2天前，也就是1月23日，美国前国务卿蓬佩奥、前高级幕僚布莱恩·胡克以及前白宫国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿的安全保护待遇被撤销。

有趣的是，1月24日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军正在该国南部海域进行大规模军事演习。在我们看来，在蓬佩奥等3人被取消安全保护待遇后，伊朗当局也许立刻想到了一起往事：2020年1月3日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队高级将领苏莱曼尼在伊拉克首都巴格达国际机场附近遭美军三枚导弹袭击身亡，且有明确资料显示，蓬佩奥和博尔顿是主要策划者之一，随后，伊朗在全球范围内对包括现任美国总统特朗普在内的，蓬佩奥、博尔顿等人发出“追杀令”。也就是说，伊朗当局在得知蓬佩奥等3人被取消安全保护待遇后，立刻产生了严重的危机感，伊朗当局认为，一旦蓬佩奥等3人因安全保护待遇被取消而出现什么意外，很可能成为美国政府对伊朗发起直接军事打击的理由。

有必要提醒大家的是，博尔顿和胡克我们暂不去说，就说蓬佩奥其人。其在担任特朗普第一任期美国国务卿之前，是担任过美国中央情报局局长的。而某些网络传闻中，似乎蓬佩奥对肯尼迪遇刺案之真相有“些许了解”，且其曾亲自阻止过特朗普在第一任期期间解密与肯尼迪遇刺案真相相关的某些秘密文档。

不难想象的是，在1月25日，美国总统特朗普日前签署行政令，解密美国前总统约翰·肯尼迪、他的弟弟罗伯特·肯尼迪以及黑人民权运动领袖马丁·路德·金遇刺案的全部剩余档案，蓬佩奥等3人因安全保护待遇被取消的背景下，尤其在对肯尼迪遇刺案真相或有“些许了解”的蓬佩奥随时可能因安全保护待遇被取消出现什么意外的情况下，已经被“揭开盖子”的肯尼迪遇刺案之后续发展已经让美国内部，或者说代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部的某些人感到了空前恐惧，比如，“索罗斯们”“拜登们”。这意味着，围绕本次美国总统大选，虽然1月20日已过，特朗普也已顺利上位，但美国内部，或代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部的“恶斗”不仅没有减弱，反而更加显得“刀刀见骨”！

所以，这种情况下，俄罗斯恐怕和美国特朗普政府之间就乌克兰问题谈不出什么实质性的内容。需要强调的是，相较于最开始东方时事解读提出“西方资本复杂转进”进程的时候，今天所谓的“西方资本复杂转进”进程似乎已经失去了原来“游离于欧美平台之外，到底是转进到哪个平台对西方资本利益更加有利”这种相对主动的色彩，而是基于客观层面，变成了惧怕残酷清算而不得不进行的“大逃亡”（被动选择，主要针对“索罗斯们”“拜登们”）。

●柬埔寨的反复在我们预料之中，且在这一过程中暴露出洪森父子的真实面目

在讨论的最后，我们就中南半岛，围绕柬埔寨这个国家的反复补充一些内容。

有点网友似乎对柬埔寨的反复感到灰心，在我们看来，大可不必。今天柬埔寨的情况用东方时事解读就“落水捞人”问题很早之前给出的评估去衡量，可谓“不出意料”！在我们看来，全球范围内，中国会进行“捞人”的只有“一个半国家”，其中的“一个”指的是朝鲜，另“半个”指的就是柬埔寨。

话说，如果没有柬埔寨“德崇-阜南”运河这档子事儿，越南当局恐怕是不如此焦急地请中国去其北方修铁路的。越南当局很清楚，“德崇-阜南”运河项目越南是拦不住的。如果运河真的建成，越南经济不死也得掉层皮。所以，“德崇－阜南”运河项目，在传统安全层面，很重要的一个作用就是敲打越南。

柬埔寨的反复在我们的预料之中，且在这一过程中暴露出洪森父子的真实面目，他们这个时候跳出来，无非是认为机遇难得，想要当柬王（儿子当首相，老子还想对现在的柬埔寨王室取而代之），搞什么“洪家王朝”。只是他们千算万算没算到，越南居然“想明白了”。既然如此，中国为什么不做一个“顺水人情”呢？一边暂停运河建设，另一边同意越方所请，在其北方按中国提出的要求、标准修建铁路。

需要强调的是，运河建设不是永久停止，而是暂停。只要项目还在，就是一柄悬在越南头顶的“达摩克斯之剑”。关键在于，中老铁路已经开通，柬埔寨和越南某种意义上，相比于泰国，都不是关键所在。当然，随着以后缅甸通道被打通，泰国的重要性也会被相应对冲。需要提醒柬埔寨当局的是，一旦中越铁路顺利建成并开通，柬埔寨很可能成为“死角”，而由此导致柬埔寨在传统安全层面继续遭受越南的压制，在非传统安全层面导致经济发展受到重大挫折，这一切的罪魁祸首就是野心膨胀，只为一己之私而不顾柬埔寨国家长远利益的洪氏题

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声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Saturday, January 25, 2025, Issue No. 1167

As Trump declassifies the remaining confidential files on the "Kennedy assassination," what new changes have emerged in the process of the "complex transfer of Western capital"?

[Media Coverage]

On January 24th, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank and former Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos that some residents may move to Europe after Trump took office as President of the United States. She suggested that European countries actively recruit these "talents" and view their economic strength more positively.

【Discussion Summary】

●For Trump, who is eager to visit China, it would be hard to call his visit a "success" if Secretary of State Rubio cannot make the trip due to Chinese sanctions.

On January 24, 2025, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Chinese Foreign Minister, had a phone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the latter's request.

It is worth noting that, firstly, this conversation, like the one on January 17, 2025, between ******* and U.S. President-elect Trump, was also conducted "at the request" of the U.S. side; secondly, it is evident from the fact that the U.S. President and Secretary of State made calls to Beijing within a week that the Trump administration, from the President down to the Secretary of State, is eager to establish contact with China; finally, the reason why U.S. Secretary of State Rubio was able to make the call to Beijing is closely related to his change in "rhetoric and behavior."

Before continuing our discussion, let's look at two news reports:

On January 22, 2025, Mao Ning, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, presided over the regular press conference.

A U.S. journalist asked whether China had changed the Chinese translation of U.S. Secretary of State Rubio's name, and if so, whether this change was related to the sanctions imposed on him. Mao Ning responded that she had not noticed the situation mentioned. She said that compared to the Chinese translation, his English name is more important. Regarding the sanctions, her colleagues had already explained China's position yesterday. She could say that China's sanctions target actions and words that harm China's legitimate interests.

On January 21st, spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded to a question from a U.S. journalist. The journalist asked that Rubio had been confirmed as Secretary of State in the Trump administration. Rubio was sanctioned by China in 2020. Given that this obviously brings complex factors or creates obstacles to the beneficial development of Sino-U.S. relations, does China consider lifting the sanctions on Rubio? Guo Jiakun stated that China will firmly safeguard its national interests, and at the same time, it is necessary for high-level officials from China and the United States to maintain contact in an appropriate manner.

As we all know, as early as August 10, 2020, China imposed sanctions on 11 U.S. individuals, including Senator Rubio and Senator Cruz, who behaved abominably on Hong Kong-related issues. And in July 2020, Rubio had already been sanctioned for his involvement in Xinjiang-related issues. Ironically, Rubio, who is known in U.S. politics as a "staunch anti-China hawk," "changed his tune" shortly after taking office as Secretary of State. During his first diplomatic event, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Rubio conveniently turned a blind eye to the topic of China throughout the discussion. Apart from generally discussing regional security cooperation, he did not mention China at all.

Previously, Dongfang Shishi Jiedu had made a preliminary assessment of the possibility of Trump appointing Rubio as the new U.S. Secretary of State. Since China's sanctions on Rubio have not been lifted, if Trump wants to properly handle relations with China, there are only two possibilities: either do not appoint Rubio, or Rubio must change his "rhetoric and behavior."

It is not hard to imagine that for Trump, who is eager to visit China, it would be difficult to call his visit a "success" if Secretary of State Rubio cannot make the trip due to Chinese sanctions. As the saying goes, "whoever made the mess should clean it up." This may be the main reason why Rubio, who should have been "setting fires" as the "staunch anti-China hawk" in his new position, dared not say anything nonsense about China throughout the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. And that is why his call was allowed to go through to Beijing.

It is worth mentioning that during the conversation, Rubio made statements such as "the United States is willing to communicate with China openly and properly handle differences" and "the United States does not support 'Taiwan independence'." At the end of the conversation, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, "I hope you will behave yourself and play a constructive role for the future of the Chinese and American people and for world peace and stability." Interestingly, various foreign media outlets have different translations of this sentence, mostly using phrases like "act responsibly" and "make the right decisions." However, the official statement released on the website of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs used the four characters "haoziweizhi" (behave yourself), which is quite stern.

●Regardless of who is in power in Syria, the primary issue they face is the "seven daily necessities."

Properly handling relations with China is only the basic prerequisite for the Trump administration to potentially implement its advocated and hyped strategies of "U.S. strategic retraction" and "divide and conquer, making distant alliances and attacking nearby enemies" both domestically and internationally. That is to say, even if the Trump administration can properly handle relations with China during its term, it does not mean that the strategic situation of the United States will fundamentally improve.

Next, let's continue to observe some of the latest developments in various aspects against the backdrop of the Trump administration's continuous advocacy and hyping of "U.S. strategic retraction" and "divide and conquer, making distant alliances and attacking nearby enemies" both domestically and internationally.

On January 24th, we noticed a news report that Misri, the First Deputy Foreign Minister of India, will meet with his Chinese counterparts during his visit to China. According to information provided by the Indian side, Misri will visit Beijing from January 26 to 27, 2025, to attend the India-China Foreign Ministers and Deputy Foreign Ministers Mechanism meeting. The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the resumption of this bilateral mechanism follows the agreement reached by the leadership of the two countries to explore the next steps in the development of India-China relations in the fields of politics, economy, and people-to-people ties.

In our view, we are not surprised by the visit of Misri, the First Deputy Foreign Minister of India, to China. Previously, Dongfang Shishi Jiedu had made relevant assessments that against the backdrop of Trump's strategy of "U.S. strategic retraction" and "divide and conquer, making distant alliances and attacking nearby enemies," it is not ruled out that politicians from relevant countries such as the European Union (France, Germany), Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Iran may visit China before Trump's visit. The visit of Misri, the First Deputy Foreign Minister of India, is a further validation of this preliminary assessment.

On January 24th, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud paid an official visit to Syria and met with senior Syrian officials. During the visit, both sides discussed issues such as regional security, economic cooperation, and specific plans to promote the reconstruction of Syria.

In our view, after the Assad regime was overthrown, with "various warlords" getting involved in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, many people are "very concerned" about the Syrian issue, such as the United States, the European Union, Russia, Turkey, Iran, etc. However, regardless of how many people are watching Syria and which side the Syrian interim government leans towards or is influenced by, as long as Syria exists as a country, the rulers must address the "seven daily necessities," that is, they must first solve the "food problem." Therefore, what Syria needs most now is to lift the sanctions and carry out reconstruction.

Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia are currently an important party actively involved in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation. However, in Saudi Arabia's view, for such a massive project as reconstructing Syria, they may be able to contribute in terms of providing funds, but in other aspects, especially infrastructure construction and the supply and production of various goods and materials, Saudi Arabia is unable to help. Looking around the world, there is only one country that can perfectly solve this problem, and that is China. It is not hard to imagine that as the reconstruction process in Syria begins, orders from Saudi Arabia will come pouring in like snowflakes. China has done nothing, but it seems to have done everything. China's public intervention is not visible, but its influence is everywhere. The international community is thus indirectly influencing the subsequent development of the Syrian (Middle Eastern) situation through Saudi Arabia.

●As long as "private ownership" exists, this kind of "shortsightedness" is inevitable.

On January 24th, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia is ready to negotiate on the issue of Ukraine, but there are still some issues that require special attention.

Perhaps Putin and Trump really want to meet and have a cup of coffee to discuss the Ukraine issue, but the question is how to talk. In our view, the Trump administration is currently eager to stabilize the situations in the Middle East and Ukraine, but these two situations have long been closely intertwined and are not "moving in the same direction." That is to say, when Trump discusses the Ukraine issue with Putin, it will surely attract equal attention from Europe, which is already involved in the subsequent development of the situation in Syria (the Middle East) and its extension to the EU. Ironically, the reason why US Middle East policy has become so difficult is due to the all-round "fierce fighting" within the US and even within the West, centered around the current US presidential election.

In a sense, the Biden administration's actions to destabilize the situation in Syria for its own selfish interests not only harmed the long-term interests of the United States, but also damaged the interests of US capital (including the interests of the part of US capital represented by "Bidens" and the interests of the part represented by "Trumps"), which still represents Western capital interests, and even harmed the overall interests of Western capital.

It is worth mentioning that while the Biden group is harming the interests of the part of US capital it represents, it is also damaging its own long-term interests. However, the Biden administration could not care less at that time, highlighting its "shortsightedness" in politics. This kind of "shortsightedness" exists to varying degrees among different interest groups within the West. It can be said that as long as "private ownership" exists, this kind of "shortsightedness" is inevitable. This transcends time, nationality, and culture.

●Today's so-called "complex transfer of Western capital" seems to have objectively turned into a "great escape" out of fear of being brutally settled.

On January 24th, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank and former Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that some residents may move to Europe after Trump takes office as US President. She suggested that European countries actively recruit these "talents" and view their economic strength more positively.

In our view, Lagarde's remarks are a follow-up to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's statement that "Soros lost the battle in the US, and Trump's victory was his Waterloo." In a sense, it is also a specific manifestation of the subsequent evolution of the "complex transfer of Western capital interests." In our view, Lagarde's remarks are clearly aimed at "the Soroses" and even "the Bidens."

In our observation and assessment, the main body representing Western capital interests in the US has not yet made a final choice. It is worth mentioning that once the Trump administration implements its "strategic retraction" strategy to the point of "irreversibility," it may mean that the US capital interests representing Western capital interests will ultimately choose to "complexly transfer" to the "US platform." This may be the main reason why Lagarde is preparing in advance to "attract both money and people."

It is noteworthy that on January 25th, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to declassify all remaining files related to the assassinations of former US President John F. Kennedy, his brother Robert F. Kennedy, and civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. Two days earlier, on January 23rd, the security protection privileges of former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Senior Advisor Brian Hook, and former National Security Advisor John Bolton were revoked.

Interestingly, on January 24th, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy was conducting large-scale military exercises in the southern waters of the country. In our view, after Pompeo and the other two had their security protection privileges revoked, the Iranian authorities may have immediately thought of a past event: On January 3, 2020, Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani was killed by three US missiles near Baghdad International Airport in Iraq. There is clear evidence that Pompeo and Bolton were among the main planners. Subsequently, Iran issued "wanted posters" globally for Pompeo, Bolton, and others, including current US President Donald Trump. That is to say, after learning that Pompeo and the other two had their security protection privileges revoked, the Iranian authorities immediately felt a serious sense of crisis. They believed that if anything were to happen to Pompeo and the other two due to the revocation of their security protection privileges, it could very well become a pretext for the US government to launch a direct military strike against Iran.

It is necessary to remind everyone that we won't discuss Bolton and Hook for now, but let's talk about Pompeo. Before serving as US Secretary of State during Trump's first term, he served as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. According to some rumors on the internet, it seems that Pompeo has some "knowledge" of the truth behind the Kennedy assassination and he personally prevented Trump from declassifying certain secret documents related to the truth of the Kennedy assassination during his first term.

It is not hard to imagine that on January 25th, when US President Donald Trump signed the executive order to declassify all remaining files related to the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, his brother Robert F. Kennedy, and Martin Luther King Jr., and against the backdrop of Pompeo and the other two having their security protection privileges revoked, especially when Pompeo, who may have some "knowledge" of the truth behind the Kennedy assassination, could be in danger due to the revocation of his security protection privileges at any time, the subsequent development of the Kennedy assassination case, whose "lid has been lifted," has made some people within the US, or within the US capital interests representing Western capital interests, feel unprecedentedly afraid, such as "the Soroses" and "the Bidens." This means that although January 20th has passed and Trump has smoothly taken office, the "fierce fighting" within the US, or within the US capital interests representing Western capital interests, has not weakened but has become even more "bone-chilling"!

Therefore, in this situation, it is unlikely that Russia and the Trump administration in the US will be able to negotiate any substantive content on the Ukraine issue. It should be emphasized that compared to when East News first proposed the "complex transfer of Western capital," today's so-called "complex transfer of Western capital" seems to have lost its relatively proactive color of "being independent of the European and American platforms and wondering which platform would be more beneficial for Western capital interests to transfer to." Instead, it has objectively turned into a "great escape" out of fear of being brutally settled (a passive choice, mainly targeting "the Soroses" and "the Bidens").

●Cambodia's vacillation is within our expectations, and in this process, the true colors of the Hun Sen father and son have been exposed.

At the end of our discussion, we will add some content regarding the vacillation of Cambodia, a country in the Indochinese Peninsula.

Some netizens seem discouraged by Cambodia's vacillation, but in our view, there is no need. The current situation in Cambodia, when measured against the assessment we made a long time ago on the issue of "rescuing people from danger" using Eastern Current Affairs interpretation, is "not unexpected"! In our opinion, globally, there is only "one and a half countries" where China would engage in "rescuing people," with "one" being North Korea and the "half" being Cambodia.

Frankly, if it weren't for the "Dechou-Phnom Penh" canal project in Cambodia, the Vietnamese authorities probably wouldn't be so eager to invite China to build a railway in the north of their country. The Vietnamese authorities are well aware that they cannot stop the "Dechou-Phnom Penh" canal project. If the canal is really built, the Vietnamese economy will suffer significantly. Therefore, the "Dechou-Phnom Penh" canal project serves an important purpose in terms of traditional security, which is to put pressure on Vietnam.

Cambodia's vacillation is within our expectations, and in this process, the true colors of the Hun Sen father and son have been exposed. They have jumped out now, thinking that the opportunity is rare, and they want to establish a "Hun Dynasty" (with the son as prime minister and the father aiming to replace the current Cambodian royal family). However, they didn't calculate that Vietnam would "figure it out." Given this, why shouldn't China do a "favor" by suspending the canal construction on one hand and agreeing to Vietnam's request to build a railway in the north according to China's proposed requirements and standards on the other hand?

It should be emphasized that the canal construction is not permanently stopped, but suspended. As long as the project exists, it is a "Sword of Damocles" hanging over Vietnam's head. The key point is that the China-Laos railway has already been opened, and to some extent, neither Cambodia nor Vietnam are crucial compared to Thailand. Of course, as the Myanmar corridor is opened up in the future, Thailand's importance will also be correspondingly offset. It should be reminded to the Cambodian authorities that once the China-Vietnam railway is successfully built and opened, Cambodia may become a "dead end," which will lead to Cambodia continuing to be suppressed by Vietnam in terms of traditional security and suffering significant setbacks in economic development in terms of non-traditional security. The culprit for all this is the Hun family, whose ambitions have swollen, pursuing only their own interests without considering Cambodia's long-term national interests.

[Related Topics]

Issue 7749 - Eastern Commentary: Trump Announces Release of JFK and Others' Assassination-Related Archives Within Days (2025-01-21)
Issue 7752 - SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle Team Up to Build AI Infrastructure in the US, What Signal Does This Send? (2025-01-22)
Issue 7755 - Why Is the Trump Administration's Foreign Policy, Especially on Ukraine and the Middle East, Starting to Revert to the Biden Administration's Policy Before November 5, 2024? (2025-01-23)

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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