2025年1月24日，星期五，第1166期

“飞检”性质的持续独立取样监测才是管控福岛核污染水排海风险的有效措施

【媒体报道】

2025年1月23日外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。

记者：据报道，中国科研机构已完成对日本福岛核污染水排海首次独立取样的检测分析，能否介绍具体情况？

毛宁：确保中方等利益攸关国独立取样监测是日方在福岛核污染水排海问题上作出的承诺内容之一。经向有关部门了解，中方科研机构已完成对中方首次独立取样样本的检测、分析，样本中氚和铯-137、锶-90等核素活度浓度未见异常。

记者：上述检测结果是否验证了福岛核污染水排海的安全性？

毛宁：福岛核污染水排海涉及国际公益，日方罔顾周边国家和国际社会关切所采取的单方面行动缺乏正当性、合理性，中方反对排海的立场没有变化。在国际社会缺乏阻止日方排海的强制机制情况下，利益攸关国对日方排海持续进行独立取样监测是管控排海风险的有效措施。

同时我们注意到，专业部门指出，单次检测结果的参考意义是有限的。中方将继续会同国际社会敦促日方切实履行承诺，确保福岛核污染水排海始终处于严格国际监督之下，持续对海水进行独立采样监测。

记者：还是关于福岛核污染水检测结果的问题。这个检测结果正常是否代表中方将恢复日本水产品进口？

毛宁：中国政府始终坚持人民至上，坚定维护人民群众食品安全。在恢复日本水产品进口问题上，中方始终秉持科学态度。首次独立取样检测只是日方落实在排海问题上承诺的一个步骤。能否最终恢复日本水产品进口，要基于中方持续独立取样监测等一系列科学数据，且日方要切实采取措施有效保障输华水产品的质量安全。

【讨论纪要】

●再次强调，彻底解决问题只的唯一途径就是日本彻底停止排放核污染水

我们注意到1月23日，外交部发言人毛宁就日本福岛核污染水排放问题的相关发言。与我们23日就同一问题做出的初步评估基本吻合。对此想要着重强调的是：

第一，外交部发言人毛宁确认了上次（2024年10月中旬）中方独立检查的结果，也就是“没有异常”，这是一个事实，且我们承认这一事实；

第二，尽管日方做出让步，允许中方独立检测，但这不会改变中国坚决反对日本排放核污染水的相关立场和原则。中国对福岛核污染水排放问题进行独立检测是中方的权利，是日本朝问题彻底解决迈出的一小步，不存在“日本对中国示好、让步”的说法；

第三，是否解禁日本水产品，取决于日方最后的选择。中国政府始终坚持人民至上，坚定维护人民群众食品安全。在恢复日本水产品进口问题上，中方始终秉持科学态度。首次独立取样检测只是日方落实在排海问题上承诺的一个步骤。能否最终恢复日本水产品进口，要基于中方持续独立取样监测等一系列科学数据，且日方要切实采取措施有效保障输华水产品的质量安全。

就在中国外交部于1月23日就日本排放核污染水相关问题表明立场后，有媒体报道称，日本东京电力公司23日当天公布了2025年度福岛第一核电站核污染水排海计划。计划将分7次排放，总计约5.46万吨。

在我们的观察与评估中，日方有关2025年福岛第一核电站核污染水排海计划的公布，既坏又蠢。日本当局紧盯中国宣布“未见异常”之独立调查结果，欲通过这种小动作试探中国的真实态度，殊不知，这反而给了中方提出“飞检”性质的持续独立取样监测才是管控福岛核污染水排海风险的有效措施以正当理由。

在我们的观察与评估中，日本福岛核污染水“有问题”可能性极大，“没问题”的可能性极小。之所以“没有异常”是因为日方提前停止排放。也就是说，日方在排放之前将大量核污染水进行技术上的妥善处理以符合排放标准的可能性为零。说白了，这个问题日本想要彻底解决只有一个途径——彻底停止排放核污染水。

●中国通过展示自己的实力，尤其是使用实力的决心，坚定捍卫了中国周边地区的和平与稳定

日本当局在以核污染水排放问题为代表的传统安全层面开始向国际社会靠拢，其中很重要的原因在于恐惧于美国内部“恶斗”外溢导致其对外政策后续发展具有的极大不确定性。这一点在拜登政府即将下台，为了一己私利不惜在三个战略方（乌克兰、中东和西太）向摆出一副“我不好过，你们谁都别想好过”的讹诈嘴脸上表现的尤为突出。以西太方向为例，围绕韩国总统尹锡悦弹劾案，拜登政府将这种极限战略讹诈玩到了极致。对日本而言，一旦真的在拜登政府一手推动下，朝鲜半岛或日韩之间发生冲突，甚至演化为局部战争，日本都会成为拜登政府的政治牺牲品，沦为乌克兰泽连斯基政权那样的炮灰。

所以，从国家利益角度出发，包括日本在内的中国周边国家，是从心底感谢中国的，中国此前一系列密集的“爆兵”，极大遏制了西方邪恶势力战略冒险的冲动（与类似引爆一场局部战争相比，只敢搞一些小动作，比如，电诈事件再起），坚定维持了地区的和平与稳定。

值得一提的是，美国的许多盟友早就已经在寻思调整对外政策，最经典的一幕莫过于英国前首相苏纳克的“撂挑子”与日本前首相岸田文雄的“急流勇退”。讽刺的是，英国和日本都是孤悬于欧亚大陆之外的岛国，也都是美国玩“离岸制衡”战略的重要支点。

●目前中东问题发展趋势显然越来越不利于美国维持中东地区基本稳定

在上一次讨论中，我们重点讨论了一个话题，那就是，为什么不论是对外还是对内，特朗普想要玩“合纵连横”，前提都是妥善处理好对华关系。在对外方面，从欧盟（“老欧洲”）、俄罗斯、英国和日本等国家和地区国际组织的最新动态来观察也好；在对内方面，从伺机反扑的“拜登们”，退到欧洲重整旗鼓的“索罗斯们”，尤其是“特朗普阵营”内部围绕“星际之门”项目公开表现出的分裂和矛盾来观察也罢，“合纵连横”策略还未正式展开，却已经表现出明显“脱稿运行”的迹象。

1月23日，强烈谴责以色列在约旦河西岸杰宁地区发起军事行动，造成当地民众伤亡。声明称，以方行动公然违反国际人道主义法和国际人权法，呼吁国际社会采取应对措施，为当地平民提供全面保护。声明还重申卡塔尔在巴勒斯坦问题上的坚定立场，支持巴勒斯坦人民的合法权利，支持建立以东耶路撒冷为首都的独立巴勒斯坦国。

需要注意的是，约旦河西岸的杰宁地区是执政巴勒斯坦的巴勒斯坦解放运动（法塔赫）的势力范围，而欧盟与巴勒斯坦政府关系向来密切。以色列这样做是一点不给欧盟的面子。所以，在表面上看，以色列这样做，是在帮助特朗普政府遏制欧盟在中东地区的影响力。

在我们看来，以色列这样做实际上是在给特朗普“挖坑”。也就是说，以色列通过这种“帮倒忙”的方式，通过激化欧美矛盾的方式，迫使特朗普政府更加更坚定支持以色列内塔尼亚胡政府。显然，内塔尼亚胡也是看准了现在的特朗普政府的处境远不如其上台之前。也就是说，目前的中东局势在向“更乱”的方向，也是不利于美国维持中东地区基本稳定的方向不断演进。

在以色列看来，必须想办法阻止特朗普政府的中东政策回归到相对远离2024年11月5日前的拜登政府的中东政策，否则，内塔尼亚胡小集团的利益则无法保证。某种意义上说，在叙利亚阿萨德政权被颠覆后，尽管伊朗一蹶不振，俄罗斯杯赶出了叙利亚，但后来者，土耳其和欧盟要比伊朗和俄罗斯更难对付，而且这些后来者显然不打算遵守以前的“游戏规则”。也就是说，对以色列内塔尼亚胡集团来说，随着特朗普中东政策的后续走向越来越靠近相对远离2024年11月5日前的拜登政府，曾经唾手可得的“大胜”似乎正再次变得遥不可及。

●不争是争，争是不争，夫唯不争，天下莫能与之争！

面对这样的中东局势，特朗普如果想要尽可能稳住，拉拢沙特必不可少。但沙特也深知美国的形式之道，一定会对沙特威、逼、利、诱。所以，沙特必须想办法平衡美国的影响力，而遍观世界，除了中国恐怕没有第二选择。

有趣的是，1月16日，中国政府中东问题特使翟隽访问以色列，分别会见以外交部总司长塔尔、主管亚太事务副总司长埃兹拉和主管中东事务副总司长约瑟夫，就双边关系和加沙停火等议题深入交换意见。

在我们看来，以色列此举显然有做给美、欧、沙特等方方面面看的意思，言外之意就是，你们可以找中国，以色列也可以找中国。“巴勒斯坦人民的民族合法权利应当得到实现，以色列的合理安全关切也应当得到重视，这是中方的一贯立场”这句话，以色列可是没有忘记！

通过上述讨论，大家不难看出，中国就通过这样一种间接方式，对以叙利亚问题、巴以问题为典型代表的中东局势后续变化发挥独特影响力。以叙利亚问题为例，尽管中国是各方中公开介入最浅的一方，但对中东局势后续发展“有想法”的方方面面都绕不开中国。这就叫，不争是争，争是不争，夫唯不争，天下莫能与之争！也许到了最后，各方才会惊讶的发现，只有中国的“一带一路”倡议才是同时满足各方最大利益的最佳方案，没有之一。

●未来一段时间特朗普会很忙，但也许有一天他会惊讶的发现，忙来忙去不过为中国“做嫁衣裳”

说到中东局势的最新变化，除了刚刚走马上任的特朗普政府感到棘手外，另一个狼狈不堪的就是俄罗斯。

种种迹象显示，俄罗斯很想和美国谈，但特朗普却故意不理俄罗斯，与此同时，伙同欧盟，通过操纵叙利亚临时政府，让俄罗斯驻叙利亚军队“有家难回”——最新消息显示，叙利亚新当局以俄罗斯没有按合同约定对港口进行现代化改造为由，终止了与俄罗斯签订的关于在塔尔图斯港投资的协议，收回由叙利亚自己经营，并禁止俄罗斯船舶进入。

显然，在欧盟的配合下，玩了一出中止协议并禁止俄罗斯船舶进入塔尔图斯港的特朗普政府向俄罗斯发出强烈警告——不要敬酒不吃吃罚酒！特朗普提出的乌克兰和平方案（与特朗普上台前的许诺有较大“温差”），俄罗斯最好立刻接受！在我们看来，乌克兰政策和中东政策已经出现明显迹象靠近相对远离2024年11月5日拜登政府后，说不定，今天的特朗普政府在乌克兰问题上对俄罗斯比拜登政府更加凶狠。这也体现出美国政府在对外政策上的协调性，尽管围绕美国总统大选，“拜登们”和“特朗普们”斗的不可开交。

特朗普政府中东政策的困难之处，某种意义上说，最大的问题在于无法回到之前，也就是无法和回到拜登政府为一己私利破坏叙利亚局势、甚至破坏美国中东政策之前，这也是现在美国急于在中东问题上拉住沙特的主要原因之一。当沙特在中东局势后续发展过程中吃重越来越大的时候，中国对中东问题的影响力也就越深。

需要补充的是，我们提醒伊朗决策层，投降是没有出路的。如果特朗普政府接受伊朗的投降，那又如何面对伊朗的宿敌——以色列，又将如何笼络住沙特以稳定中东局势？所以，不排除俄罗斯和伊朗在尝试各种“重返叙利亚”的办法且均遭失败的情况下被迫重返上合的可能性，对此，国际社会虚位以待。

通过这几天的讨论，大家不难看出，特朗普政府无论是对内，对外均很难摆平各方。如果特朗普政府想要将这件事做的七七八八，前提只能是和中国相对缓和关系，这也意味着，特朗普要更进一步牺牲盟友，而这也将进一步促使美国的盟友们逐渐与美国对外政策，尤其是对华政策保持距离。未来一段时间，也许大家会看到，特朗普会很忙，但也许有一天他会惊讶的发现，忙来忙去不过为中国“做嫁衣裳”。特朗普正在将所有资源推向中国，而“川建国”这三个字显然不是白叫的。

【相关话题】

第7747期-特朗普将TIKTOK禁令推迟时间从90天缩短至75天，向外界释放放了怎样的信号？（2025-1-21）
第7751期-东方点评，中国最高领导人同俄罗斯总统普京举行视频会晤（2025-1-22）
第7755期-为什么说特朗普政府的对外政策，尤其在乌克兰政策和中东政策上开始回归2024年11月5日前的拜登政府？（2025-1-23）

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Friday, January 24, 2025, Issue No. 1166

"Continuous Independent Sampling and Monitoring with 'Surprise Inspection' Nature is an Effective Measure to Control the Risks of Discharging Fukushima Nuclear Contaminated Water into the Sea

[Media Coverage]

January 23, 2025, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning presided over the regular press conference.

Reporter: It is reported that Chinese scientific research institutions have completed the first independent sampling and analysis of the discharge of nuclear contaminated water from Japan's Fukushima into the sea. Could you provide details on the situation?

Mao Ning: Ensuring independent sampling and monitoring by China and other stakeholders is one of the commitments made by Japan regarding the discharge of nuclear contaminated water from Fukushima into the sea. Upon consulting with relevant departments, Chinese scientific research institutions have completed the testing and analysis of the first independent samples taken by China, and no abnormalities were found in the activity concentrations of tritium, cesium-137, strontium-90, and other radionuclides in the samples.

Reporter: Does the aforementioned test result verify the safety of discharging Fukushima nuclear contaminated water into the sea?

Mao Ning: The discharge of nuclear contaminated water from Fukushima into the sea involves international public interests, and Japan's unilateral action, disregarding the concerns of neighboring countries and the international community, lacks legitimacy and rationality. China's position against the discharge remains unchanged. In the absence of a mandatory mechanism in the international community to stop Japan's discharge, continuous independent sampling and monitoring by stakeholders is an effective measure to control the risks associated with the discharge.

At the same time, we note that professional departments have pointed out that the reference significance of a single test result is limited. China will continue to work with the international community to urge Japan to fulfill its commitments and ensure that the discharge of nuclear contaminated water from Fukushima remains under strict international supervision, with continuous independent sampling and monitoring of seawater.

Reporter: Another question about the test results of Fukushima nuclear contaminated water. Does a normal test result mean that China will resume imports of Japanese aquatic products?

Mao Ning: The Chinese government always puts the people first and firmly safeguards the food safety of the people. Regarding the resumption of imports of Japanese aquatic products, China maintains a scientific attitude. The first independent sampling and testing is only a step in Japan's fulfillment of its commitments on the discharge issue. Whether to ultimately resume imports of Japanese aquatic products will be based on a series of scientific data from China's continuous independent sampling and monitoring, and Japan must take effective measures to ensure the quality and safety of aquatic products exported to China.

【Discussion Summary】

●It is once again emphasized that the only way to completely solve the problem is for Japan to completely stop discharging nuclear contaminated water.

We note that on January 23, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning made statements on issues related to the discharge of nuclear contaminated water from Japan's Fukushima. This aligns with our preliminary assessment on the same issue made on the 23rd. We would like to emphasize the following points:

First, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning confirmed the results of the previous independent inspection by China (in mid-October 2024), which found "no abnormalities." This is a fact, and we acknowledge it.

Second, although Japan has made concessions by allowing China to conduct independent testing, this will not change China's firm position and principles against the discharge of nuclear contaminated water by Japan. China's independent testing of the discharge of nuclear contaminated water from Fukushima is China's right and a small step towards a complete resolution of the issue. There is no such thing as "Japan making concessions or showing goodwill to China."

Third, whether to lift the ban on Japanese aquatic products depends on Japan's final choice. The Chinese government always puts the people first and firmly safeguards the food safety of the people. Regarding the resumption of imports of Japanese aquatic products, China maintains a scientific attitude. The first independent sampling and testing is only a step in Japan's fulfillment of its commitments on the discharge issue. Whether to ultimately resume imports of Japanese aquatic products will be based on a series of scientific data from China's continuous independent sampling and monitoring, and Japan must take effective measures to ensure the quality and safety of aquatic products exported to China.

After the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed its position on issues related to the discharge of nuclear contaminated water by Japan on January 23, media reports stated that Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. announced its plan for discharging nuclear contaminated water from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in FY2025 on the same day. The plan involves seven discharges, totaling approximately 54,600 tons.

In our observations and assessments, Japan's announcement of the 2025 plan for discharging nuclear contaminated water from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station is both bad and foolish. The Japanese authorities are closely monitoring China's independent investigation results, which showed "no abnormalities," and attempt to test China's true attitude through such small actions. However, they do not realize that this instead gives China a legitimate reason to propose that continuous independent sampling and monitoring with a "surprise inspection" nature is an effective measure to control the risks of discharging Fukushima nuclear contaminated water into the sea.

In our observations and assessments, it is highly likely that there are issues with the nuclear contaminated water from Fukushima, and the possibility of there being no issues is extremely low. The reason for "no abnormalities" is that Japan stopped the discharge in advance. In other words, the possibility of Japan technically treating a large amount of nuclear contaminated water to meet discharge standards before discharge is zero. Frankly, there is only one way for Japan to completely solve this problem – to completely stop discharging nuclear contaminated water.

●China has firmly defended peace and stability in its neighboring regions by demonstrating its strength, especially its determination to use it.

The Japanese authorities are beginning to align with the international community on traditional security issues, represented by the discharge of nuclear-contaminated water, largely out of fear of the enormous uncertainty in the subsequent development of US foreign policy due to the spillover effects of internal "fierce infighting." This is particularly evident as the Biden administration, nearing the end of its term, resorts to extreme blackmail in three strategic directions (Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Western Pacific) for its own selfish interests, adopting an attitude of "if I can't have it, nobody will." Taking the Western Pacific direction as an example, the Biden administration has pushed this extreme strategic blackmail to the extreme around the impeachment case of South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl. For Japan, if conflicts really erupt on the Korean Peninsula or between South Korea and Japan due to the Biden administration's push, or even escalate into local wars, Japan will become a political sacrifice of the Biden administration, reduced to cannon fodder like the Zelenskyy regime in Ukraine.

Therefore, from the perspective of national interests, countries neighboring China, including Japan, are genuinely grateful to China. China's series of intensive military demonstrations have greatly curbed the impulse of Western evil forces to engage in strategic adventures (compared to triggering a local war, they only dare to engage in small actions, such as the resurgence of telecom scams), firmly maintaining regional peace and stability.

It is worth mentioning that many US allies have long been considering adjusting their foreign policies. The classic examples are the "resignation" of former British Prime Minister Sunak and the "retirement" of former Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. Ironically, both Britain and Japan are island countries off the Eurasian continent and important pivots for the US's "offshore balancing" strategy.

●The current development trend of the Middle East issue is clearly increasingly unfavorable for the US to maintain basic stability in the region.

In the previous discussion, we focused on a topic: why, both externally and internally, Trump's attempt to play "diplomacy of alliance and division" hinges on properly handling relations with China. Externally, this can be observed from the latest developments in the European Union ("Old Europe"), Russia, Britain, Japan, and other countries, regions, and international organizations; internally, it can be seen from the "Bidens" waiting for an opportunity to strike back, the "Soroses" retreating to Europe to regroup, and especially the division and contradictions publicly displayed within the "Trump camp" over the "Stargate" project. The "diplomacy of alliance and division" strategy has not yet been officially launched, but it has already shown signs of "going off script."

On January 23rd, [a statement] strongly condemned Israel's military operation in the Jenin area of the West Bank, which caused casualties among local civilians. The statement claimed that Israel's actions blatantly violated international humanitarian law and international human rights law, calling on the international community to take responsive measures to provide comprehensive protection for local civilians. The statement also reiterated Qatar's firm stance on the Palestinian issue, supporting the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.

It should be noted that the Jenin area in the West Bank is under the control of the ruling Palestinian faction, Fatah. The EU has always had close relations with the Palestinian government. By acting in this way, Israel is not giving any face to the EU. Therefore, on the surface, Israel's actions appear to be helping the Trump administration curb the EU's influence in the Middle East.

In our view, Israel is actually "digging a hole" for Trump by doing this. That is, by "doing more harm than good" and intensifying Euro-American conflicts, Israel is forcing the Trump administration to provide firmer support for the Netanyahu government in Israel. Clearly, Netanyahu has also seen that the Trump administration is in a much weaker position now than before it came to power. In other words, the current situation in the Middle East is evolving in a "more chaotic" direction, which is unfavorable for the US to maintain basic stability in the region.

From Israel's perspective, it is necessary to find a way to prevent Trump's Middle East policy from reverting to a policy relatively distant from that of the Biden administration before November 5, 2024. Otherwise, the interests of the Netanyahu group cannot be guaranteed. In a sense, after the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown, although Iran was severely weakened and Russia was expelled from Syria, the newcomers, Turkey and the EU, are even more difficult to deal with than Iran and Russia, and these newcomers clearly do not intend to abide by the previous "rules of the game." That is, for the Netanyahu group in Israel, as Trump's Middle East policy moves closer to a policy relatively distant from that of the Biden administration before November 5, 2024, the once easily attainable "victory" seems to be slipping away again.

●Not competing is competing, competing is not competing. Only by not competing, can one be unrivaled in the world!

Faced with the current situation in the Middle East, if Trump wants to stabilize it as much as possible, it is essential to win over Saudi Arabia. However, Saudi Arabia is well aware of America's way of wielding power and will certainly face coercion, intimidation, benefits, and inducements from the US. Therefore, Saudi Arabia must find a way to balance US influence, and looking around the world, there is no better choice than China.

Interestingly, on January 16th, China's Special Envoy for Middle East Issues Zhai Jun visited Israel and met with Director-General of the Foreign Ministry's Department塔尔, Deputy Director-General for Asia-Pacific Affairs Ezra, and Deputy Director-General for Middle East Affairs Joseph. They had in-depth exchanges on bilateral relations and the ceasefire in Gaza, among other topics.

In our view, Israel's move clearly aims to show the US, Europe, Saudi Arabia, and others that they can seek China, and so can Israel. Israel has not forgotten the phrase, "The legitimate national rights of the Palestinian people should be realized, and Israel's reasonable security concerns should also be taken seriously. This is China's consistent position."

Through the above discussion, it is not difficult to see that China is exerting unique influence on the subsequent changes in the Middle East situation, typified by the Syrian and Israeli-Palestinian issues, through such an indirect approach. Taking the Syrian issue as an example, although China is the least publicly involved party among all, all parties with "ideas" about the subsequent development of the Middle East situation cannot bypass China. This is what is meant by, "Not competing is competing, competing is not competing. Only by not competing, can one be unrivaled in the world!" Perhaps in the end, all parties will be surprised to find that China's "Belt and Road" initiative is the best solution that simultaneously satisfies the maximum interests of all parties, without exception.

●Trump will be very busy in the coming period, but one day he may be surprised to find that all his efforts are only making a "wedding dress" for China.

Speaking of the latest developments in the Middle East situation, in addition to the newly inaugurated Trump administration feeling overwhelmed, another party in disarray is Russia.

Various signs indicate that Russia wants to talk with the US, but Trump deliberately ignores Russia. Meanwhile, in collusion with the EU, by manipulating the Syrian interim government, they are making it difficult for the Russian military in Syria to "return home" – the latest news shows that the new Syrian authorities have terminated the agreement with Russia on investing in the Tartus port, citing Russia's failure to modernize the port as contracted, and have taken over its operation, prohibiting Russian ships from entering.

Clearly, with the cooperation of the EU, the Trump administration has played a trick by terminating the agreement and prohibiting Russian ships from entering the Tartus port, sending a strong warning to Russia – don't refuse a kind offer and ask for trouble! Russia had better immediately accept the peace plan for Ukraine proposed by Trump (which has a significant "temperature difference" from Trump's pre-election promises)! In our view, there are clear signs that US policies on Ukraine and the Middle East are moving closer to those before the Biden administration on November 5, 2024. Perhaps the current Trump administration will be even tougher on Russia on the Ukraine issue than the Biden administration. This also reflects the coordination in US foreign policy, despite the fierce competition between the "Bidens" and the "Trumps" surrounding the US presidential election.

The difficulty of the Trump administration's Middle East policy, to some extent, lies in its inability to return to the past, that is, to the situation before the Biden administration undermined the situation in Syria and even US Middle East policy for its own interests. This is also one of the main reasons why the US is eager to win over Saudi Arabia on the Middle East issue. As Saudi Arabia plays an increasingly important role in the subsequent development of the Middle East situation, China's influence on the Middle East issue will also deepen.

It should be added that we remind the Iranian decision-makers that surrender is not an option. If the Trump administration accepts Iran's surrender, how can it face Iran's sworn enemy, Israel, and how can it win over Saudi Arabia to stabilize the Middle East situation? Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Russia and Iran, after trying various ways to "return to Syria" and failing, may be forced to return to the SCO. The international community is waiting with anticipation.

Through the discussions in recent days, it is not difficult to see that the Trump administration is struggling to balance all parties both domestically and internationally. If the Trump administration wants to get things mostly done, the premise can only be to ease relations with China, which means that Trump will have to further sacrifice his allies. This will also further prompt US allies to gradually distance themselves from US foreign policy, especially its policy towards China. In the coming period, everyone may see that Trump will be very busy, but one day he may be surprised to find that all his efforts are only making a "wedding dress" for China. Trump is pushing all resources towards China, and the nickname "Chuan the Founder" is certainly not given in vain.

[Related Topics]

Issue 7747: What signal does Trump's shortening of the TikTok ban deadline from 90 days to 75 days send to the outside world? (January 21, 2025)
Issue 7751: Oriental Commentary: China's Top Leader Holds Video Conference with Russian President Putin (January 22, 2025)
Issue 7755: Why is the Trump administration's foreign policy, especially on Ukraine and the Middle East, starting to revert to that of the Biden administration before November 5, 2024? (January 23, 2025)

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