2025年1月23日，星期四，第1165期

东方点评，中方完成对日本福岛核污染水排海首次独立取样检测分析

【媒体报道】

1月22日，对于美国总统特朗普的最新发言，俄罗斯常驻联合国副代表德米特里·波利扬斯基回应称，要解决乌克兰危机不仅仅在于结束武装冲突，更要消除危机的根源

1月23日，中国国家原子能机构就中方对日本福岛核污染水排海独立取样检测结果答记者问时表示，样本中氚和铯-137、锶-90等核素活度浓度未见异常。本次独立取样检测结果仅反映特定时间和地点的海洋环境放射水平。

【讨论纪要】

●中方的邀请是对俄方提供的一种战略策应，也是对美国特朗普政府发出的公开警告

上一次我们主要围绕美国总统特朗普就“美国或战略收缩”背景下，欲展开“合纵连横”策略以对抗中国这一话题，在后续发表一系列新主张并作出相关动作后，欧盟（“老欧洲”）和俄罗斯的反应与动作展开讨论。用一个词来形容就是：一石激起千层浪。

1月22日，对于特朗普批评俄罗斯总统普京的最新发言，俄罗斯常驻联合国副代表波利扬斯基回应称，要解决乌克兰危机不仅仅在于结束武装冲突，更要消除危机的根源。

在我们看来，俄罗斯的反应显然是一种“中式说辞”。所谓“中式说辞”的意思就在于，俄方显然采取了一种类似中国外交部就乌克兰问题经常采取的应对方式，那就是强调“从乌克兰问题的历史经纬和是非曲直出发”这一点。显然，在俄罗斯眼中，特朗普上台前和上台后，在乌克兰问题上的表态存在明显温差，对此俄方感到强烈不满。而在我们眼中，俄罗斯显然“再次被骗”（注：上次被骗，指的是被德国前总理默克尔和法国前总统奥朗德公开羞辱，两者称，“明斯克协议”就是为了给乌克兰争取充足战争准备时间而精心策划的骗局。）

有趣的是，就在特朗普刚刚就乌克兰问题对俄罗斯总统普京进行公开批评后，当地时间1月21日，俄罗斯总统秘书乌沙科夫披露了中俄两国元首视频会晤的一些具体内容：双方就双边关系和国际问题进行了详细讨论。围绕乌克兰局势、特朗普政府在华盛顿上台背景下俄中两国与美国的关系，以及叙利亚的最新局势。在地区议题中，两国领导人特别关注中东局势，尤其是在以色列与哈马斯达成协议的背景下。此外，两国领导人还表示，有兴趣进一步促进金砖国家作为建立多极世界关键工具的地位不断上升。此外，在2025年中国担任上海合作组织轮值主席国的背景下，还详细讨论了该组织的相关工作。

乌沙科夫还透露称，俄罗斯总统普京已收到来自中国的诚挚邀请，将于2025年9月3日出席在北京举行的纪念抗战胜利80周年的盛大活动。

不难看出，对于特朗普的出尔反尔，俄方的反应相对强烈。对此，中国的做法则是“拍拍俄罗斯肩头，虽然没说什么，但递过来一份邀请俄方参加纪念抗战胜利80周年的请柬”。中国的意思很清楚，仍然是我们此前多次重复的那句话：只要俄罗斯回头，背后总站着一个强大的中国。显然，中国的邀请是对俄方提供的一种战略策应，这也是对美国特朗普政府发出的公开警告。

●美国在试图挖别人“墙角”的时候，自己的“墙角”也在快速崩塌

除了俄罗斯外，欧盟方面也有相关后续表态。

1月21日，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在世界经济论坛2025年年会发表讲话时说，欧盟将对特朗普新政府采取“务实”态度，做好谈判准备，但“始终”准备好捍卫自身战略利益，反对任何不合理的措施。

有趣的是，以欧洲亲美势力典型代表人物为世人所熟悉的冯德莱恩，尽管在讲话中14次提及中国，不忘就涉华贸易问题说三道四，但针对特朗普的相关言行也开启了“冯怼怼”模式，强调欧盟应努力与中国实现互利共赢，并与中国开展建设性接触，借2025年中欧建交50周年契机深化对华关系。

此外，荷兰新任首相斯霍夫在1月22日于瑞士达沃斯参加世界经济论坛2025年年会期间也表示，欧洲在与本周宣誓就职的美国总统特朗普合作时需要“有骨气”，欧洲不会表现得像一个“受害者”。

以上两则新闻报道对刚刚上任的美国总统特朗普而言，颇具讽刺意味。美国在试图挖别人“墙角”的时候，自己的“墙角”也在快速崩塌。那我们就不妨继续观察特朗普接下来到底要如何玩“合纵连横，远交近攻”。

说到“合纵连横，远交近攻”，顺便再提一句TikTok问题。

虽然TikTok公司注册地在开曼群岛，但其用了很多中国公司技术，比如，算法技术。美国对其“长臂管辖”有点类似于对阿斯麦。阿斯麦虽然是荷兰公司，但因为使用了很多美国公司的技术。针对美国一心想要吞并TikTok的阴险图谋，中国在应对TikTok问题的时候采取了“以其人之道还治其人之身”的方式，对美国进行“长臂管辖”。不难想象的是，如果TikTok去掉了“中国因素”，无论是“中国技术”还是“中国经济”，那TikTok还是原来的TikTok吗？显然，中国早已看穿特朗普的“底牌”，那就是特朗普无论基于对内，还是基于对外，如果不能稳妥处理对华关系，“合纵连横”也好，“远交近攻”也罢，恐将举步维艰。

●特朗普政府的对外政策似乎开始向2024年相对远离11月5日之前的拜登政府靠近

值得一提的是，特朗普在乌克兰问题上对俄罗斯的出尔反尔，让外界开始注意特朗普政府正式开始运作后，其对外政策的走向问题。除了宣扬“美国或战略收缩”与准备通过“合纵连横，远交近攻”的方式继续对抗中国外，特朗普政府的对外政策似乎开始向2024年相对远离11月5日之前的拜登政府靠近。

在此前，东方时事解读基于美国历届政府在对外政策上具有较高协调性的角度对特朗普上台后或会变成“另一个拜登”，甚至“比拜登还要拜登”作出过相关评估。从特朗普今天乌克兰政策的最新变化上观察，这一评估得到初步验证。此外，特朗普对外政策的变化也体现在中东问题上。

1月21日，巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）高级官员向前一天就任的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普释放友好信号，称特朗普就职演说令他们感到鼓舞。哈马斯希望与新一届美国政府对话，并邀请特朗普中东问题特使访问加沙地带。

哈马斯的表态想必对以色列而言显得格外刺耳，特朗普的中东政策开始逐渐明朗化——马不停蹄地着手稳定中东局势。这与2024年相对远离11月5日之前的拜登政府的中东政策立场非常相似。

不难看出，对特朗普政府的对外政策感到“受伤”的除了俄罗斯外，还有以色列和欧盟。当然，其中，俄罗斯和以色列的感受或会更强烈一些。而欧盟可以期待特朗普政府的对欧政策会逐渐和缓下来，毕竟，无论出于对内，还是出于对外，美国还不能失去欧洲这位盟友，对于欧盟的强烈反应需要适当安抚。但问题在于“按起来葫芦瓢又起”，特朗普的“合纵连横，远交近攻”策略似乎在一开始就显现出“脱稿运行”的迹象。

接下来，我们以美国的“核心盟友”之一的日本为例展开讨论。

●一旦日本当局最终同意永远停止核污染水排放，则意味着这一问题正式跳出“技术范畴”，来到“政治范畴”

1月23日，中国国家原子能机构就中方对日本福岛核污染水排海独立取样检测结果答记者问时表示，样本中氚和铯-137、锶-90等核素活度浓度未见异常。本次独立取样检测结果仅反映特定时间和地点的海洋环境放射水平。

有关中方对日本福岛核污染水排海独立取样检测一事，最早见诸报端是在去年的10月，在我们看来，之所以现在才公布结果，恐怕不是因为技术问题，而在于“时机已经成熟”。值得一提的是，在我们的观察中，中国核专家到日本福岛做独立检查的时候，甚至之前的相当一段时间，日方已经停止排放，这或是本次检测“结果正常”的主要原因。或者说，日方对本次检测信心极高。对此，中国自然“心里有数”，但就是不“立刻公布”，只等国际形势的后续演化。

中国独立调查，在日本当局眼中，自然是一种侮辱，之所以最终允许进行，就在于日方早在2024年10月，时任日本首相岸田文雄执政后期，就已经明确传递出日本将要调整对外政策的强烈信号。

尽管岸田文雄就日本对外政策调整进程“开了个头”，但由于恐惧无法全身而退，甚至有杀身之祸，最终选择“中途退出”，但日本对外政策调整进程并未停止。经过一番激烈博弈，这副重担最终落在现任日本首相石破茂的肩上。

值得一提的是，据中国海关数据统计，2023年，中国自日本进口水海产品及制品3.5亿美元，比上年同比下降39.2%，占自日农产品进口总额25%。其中，贝类及制品1.8亿美元，同比下降47.8%，鱼类及制品1.2亿美元，同比下降25.9%。可以说，2023年，中日水产品进出口贸易额降至近三年来的最低点。此外，截至目前，包括中国在内，韩国、马来西亚、俄罗斯、美国，甚至远如瑞士、科威特、塞内加尔、巴拿马等19个国家以食品安全及环境问题为由加以抵制。由此不难看出，中国对日本“水产品”全部禁止对日本经济，尤其是日本农林水产业打击较大。有消息显示，日本核污水排海事件直接冲击了日本商超的水产销售。不仅标有福岛标签的水产品打“骨折”出售均无人问津，甚至直接还影响到非福岛地区的日本水产从业者，其水产品纷纷被退订。有趣的是，日本民众对食品安全的担忧，业已导致用“脚”投票，选择购买进口水产品，这使得日本成为2023年中国水产品的最大买家。

日本排放核污染水事件，固然有日本极右政权极度自私的决策考量，但也是在美国政府一手怂恿、放纵下造成的。值得一提的是，日本排放核污染水，由于洋流原因，受到最直接、危害最大的反而不是中国，而是美国。但美国政府出于某些不可告人的险恶用心，仍执意为之，令人不齿。

日本排放核污染水事件对日本就是一个“坑”，无论基于传统安全层面还是基于非传统安全层面。日本当局现如今不得不痛苦地承认，这个问题找美国是没用的，只有去找中国寻求解决。

在我们的观察与评估中，日本首相石破茂急于访华，在核污染水检测问题上有“新要求”的可能性很大，比如，要求中国立刻解禁日本水产品进口。但在我们看来，日本当局想要在这个问题上蒙混过关的可能性为零。

1月23日，在中国国家原子能机构出具地对日本福岛核污染水排放独立调查结果后，特意强调了这样一句话：本次独立取样检测结果仅反映特定时间和地点的海洋环境放射水平。

在我们的观察中，“本次独立取样检测结果仅反映特定时间和地点的海洋环境放射水平”的意思在于：

第一，中国对日本当局在福岛核污染水排放问题上玩的小把戏心知肚明；

第二，在“第一”的基础上，中国显然在暗示日方，这一次检测只具有“即时效果”，而不具有“长久效应”；

第三，在“第二”的基础上，不排除中方提出“飞检”的要求，也就是随时随地进行检查。当然，日方无论是否同意，石破茂都可以访华，但是，如果日方不同意，中国解禁日本水产品进口这件事就不要提，没有意义。换句话说，日本如果想要彻底解决问题，只有一个办法，那就是永远停止核污染水排放；

第四，在“第三”的基础上，如果日本当局最终同意永远停止核污染水排放，则意味着日本排放核污染水问题正式跳出“技术范畴”，来到“政治范畴”。或者说，此时此刻的日本，在政治上，尤其是在经济上，于中美之间“选边站队”；

第五，在“第四”的基础上，由于日本是美国“核心盟友”之一，一旦日本于中美之间“选边站队”，对美国“西太安全框架”，乃至全球战略将构成沉重打击。这意味着，此后，日本在美日贸易问题上会更多采取主动性应对措施，在经济上更加依赖中国，国家决策更多以自身利益而非美国利益为依归，甚至就此退出美国主导的“美、日、韩半导体联盟”。

第六，基于以上五点，日本排放核污染水之后续发展，中国必然将其全盘广播给方方面面，无论是企图玩什么“合纵连横，远交近攻”的美国，还是准备或已经在自己脑门儿上贴上“我是被合纵对象”的欧、俄、印、伊等。“题外音”只有一句：美帝已沦落至此，你们看着办！

●盟友不是盟友，马仔不是马仔，内部的敌人还在，无非转移了阵地，这对于美帝而言，算不算另外一种“礼崩乐坏”？

近日，我们注意到匈牙利总理欧尔班有关“索罗斯输掉了美国的战斗，特朗普胜利成其滑铁卢”的新闻报道。

尽管同属于代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益，但马斯克和索罗斯之间可以说是“天敌”般的关系，这是美国资本利益内部深度分裂的具体表现。且这一表现明显因本次美国总统大选被大幅放大。现在，“索罗斯们”显然要退到欧洲去，一边重整旗鼓，另一边寻思着如何对“特朗普们”和“马斯克们”反攻倒算。

历史上，很多处于内部激烈博弈的各方都会对外寻求“外援”。“索罗斯们”似乎正在寻找欧盟，甚至俄罗斯作为自己的“外援”。对特朗普来说，寻求中国成为自己的“外援”就显得现实得多。

特朗普的麻烦除了基于“内斗”层面（注：“马斯克们”和“索罗斯们”的争斗是美国“内斗”的一部分，还有“特朗普们”和“拜登们”之间的“内斗”仍未结束。甚至特朗普威胁称，要公布肯尼迪遇刺的真相。此外，就算“特朗普阵营”内部也存在纷争，比如，“马斯克们”与OpenAI、软银等搞的“星际之门”项目之间的矛盾）寻找“外援”外，基于“对外”层面，还有如何稳定乌克兰，尤其是中东局势。

尽管在上文中我们提到了特朗普似乎正在向相对远离2024年11月5日的拜登政府的对外政策靠近，但这并不意味着特朗普政府的对外政策，比如，中东政策可以彻底回到从前。由于拜登政府出于“党争”的极端自私行为，美国的中东政策已经千疮百孔。别的不说，一个呈现“九龙治水”的叙利亚局势与正在谋求积极介入其中的欧盟就够特朗普头疼好一阵子。在这种情况下，特朗普在对华问题上还玩什么“左手制造问题，右手解决问题”或“胡萝卜+大棒”的把戏就显得颇为滑稽。这是我们此前提到的，不论是对外还是对内，特朗普想要玩“合纵连横”，前提都是处理好对华关系的一个重要原因。不难想象的是，如果特朗普政府不能稳妥处理对华关系，方方面面会“立刻”知道如何和美国打交道。

以现在的情况为例，特朗普政府的“合纵连横，远交近攻”策略尚未全面展开，局面就已经落得个“盟友不是盟友”“马仔不是马仔”的地步。问题在于，内部的敌人还在，无非转移了阵地，以欧洲为基地和特朗普政府死磕。甚至他们以后会更多以“欧洲资本”的面目示人。在这种情况下，美国（特朗普政府）的乌克兰，中东政策又如何能够如愿以偿？

●对于中国的“远交近攻”，特朗普政府作何态度？

最后，就“海鸥”行动破获电诈案件问题简单说说。

1月21日，澜沧江－湄公河综合执法安全合作中心在云南昆明召开“海鸥”联合行动总结会。记者从会上获悉，2024年8月至12月，柬埔寨、中国、老挝、缅甸、泰国、越南六国执法部门共同打击区域电信网络诈骗犯罪及其衍生犯罪与枪支弹药走私犯罪，行动期间，各方总共破获以电诈案件为主的各类案件160余起，抓获犯罪嫌疑人7万余名，解救受害人160余名。

在我们看来，中国就是当着方方面面去公开测试特朗普政府对中方如此处理持什么态度，是像拜登政府那样在此问题地上个阶段处理过程中持默认态度，还是不服气？

需要补充的是，柬埔寨问题更多是其内政问题。柬埔寨的确现在想要在中美之间寻求平衡，谋取最大利益。结果中国撤了，富贵也没了，洪家（父子玩双簧，首先考虑的是自己的私利，比如，取代柬埔寨王室，一家独大，说白了，太自以为是了，损害讹诈中国，门都没有，至于运河，和越南一样，晾起来20年，继续受越南的气，时间一长，柬埔寨发展不起来，如果洪森父子继续执迷不悟，后果难料，柬埔寨内部有人可以随时替代他们）什么也没拿到。

越南真要修铁路，南海问题必须彻底解决。至于你认为中国修北方铁路是分裂越南，大可不修。此外，横向连接中老铁路不就是为了对接中国吗？既然如此，在北方修最为合适。如果越南最终也靠向中国，柬埔寨就更没出路了。中老铁路开了，带动中泰，中越铁路，柬埔寨完全可以绕过。至于缅甸，不把美帝办挺，恐怕始终无法顺利推进，所以，在这件事上，还真不能急。

【相关话题】

第7747期-特朗普将TIKTOK禁令推迟时间从90天缩短至75天，向外界释放放了怎样的信号？（2025-1-21）
第7751期-东方点评，中国最高领导人同俄罗斯总统普京举行视频会晤（2025-1-22）
第7755期-为什么说特朗普政府的对外政策，尤其在乌克兰政策和中东政策上开始回归2024年11月5日前的拜登政府？（2025-1-23）

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Thursday, January 23, 2025, Issue No. 1165

Oriental Commentary: China Completes First Independent Sampling and Analysis of Seawater from Japan's Fukushima Nuclear-Contaminated Water Discharge

[Media Coverage]

On January 22, in response to the latest remarks by US President Trump, Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations Dmitry Polyanskiy stated that resolving the Ukraine crisis involves not only ending the armed conflict but also eliminating the root causes of the crisis.

On January 23, when asked by reporters about the results of China's independent sampling and testing of seawater from Japan's Fukushima nuclear-contaminated water discharge, the China Atomic Energy Authority said that the activity concentrations of tritium, cesium-137, strontium-90, and other radionuclides in the samples were not abnormal. The results of this independent sampling and testing only reflect the radioactive levels in the marine environment at a specific time and location.

【Discussion Summary】

●China's invitation is a strategic response to Russia and a public warning to the Trump administration in the US.

Last time, we mainly discussed the reactions and actions of the European Union ("Old Europe") and Russia following a series of new assertions and related moves made by US President Trump regarding his "possible strategic retraction" and his intention to employ a "diplomatic strategy" to counter China. To put it in one word: One stone stirs up a thousand waves.

On January 22, in response to Trump's latest criticism of Russian President Putin, Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations Polyanskiy stated that resolving the Ukraine crisis involves not only ending the armed conflict but also eliminating the root causes of the crisis.

In our view, Russia's response is clearly a "Chinese-style rhetoric." By "Chinese-style rhetoric," we mean that Russia has adopted a response similar to the one often used by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the Ukraine issue, which is to emphasize "starting from the historical context and the rights and wrongs of the Ukraine issue." It is evident that, in Russia's eyes, there is a significant difference in Trump's stance on the Ukraine issue before and after he took office, and Russia feels strongly about it. In our view, Russia has "been deceived again" (Note: The previous deception refers to the public humiliation by former German Chancellor Merkel and former French President Hollande, who claimed that the "Minsk Agreement" was a carefully planned deception to give Ukraine sufficient time to prepare for war.).

Interestingly, shortly after Trump publicly criticized Russian President Putin on the Ukraine issue, on January 21 (local time), Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov disclosed some details of the video conference between the heads of state of China and Russia. They had a detailed discussion on bilateral relations and international issues, focusing on the situation in Ukraine, the relations between Russia and China and the United States against the backdrop of the Trump administration taking office in Washington, and the latest situation in Syria. On regional issues, the two leaders paid special attention to the situation in the Middle East, especially in the context of the agreement reached between Israel and Hamas. In addition, the two leaders expressed interest in further promoting the rising status of the BRICS countries as a key tool for establishing a multipolar world.

Ushakov also revealed that Russian President Putin had received a sincere invitation from China to attend the grand event commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan on September 3, 2025, in Beijing.

It is not difficult to see that Russia's reaction to Trump's flip-flopping is relatively strong. In response, China has taken the approach of "patting Russia on the shoulder, not saying much, but handing over an invitation to attend the commemorative event for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan." China's message is clear: as long as Russia turns around, there will always be a strong China standing behind it. Obviously, China's invitation is a strategic response to Russia and a public warning to the Trump administration in the US.

●While the US is trying to poach others, its own "cornerstone" is also rapidly crumbling.

In addition to Russia, the European Union has also made relevant subsequent statements.

On January 21, European Commission President von der Leyen, speaking at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025, said that the EU will take a "pragmatic" approach towards the new Trump administration, be prepared for negotiations, but always be ready to defend its strategic interests and oppose any unreasonable measures.

Interestingly, von der Leyen, who is well-known to the world as a typical representative of pro-US forces in Europe, despite mentioning China 14 times in her speech and not forgetting to comment on trade issues involving China, also turned on her " Von Defender" mode in response to Trump's related remarks, emphasizing that the EU should strive for mutual benefit and win-win cooperation with China and engage in constructive contacts with China, deepening relations with China on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the EU in 2025.

Furthermore, the new Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Schouten, stated during the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 in Davos, Switzerland, on January 22 that Europe needs to "have backbone" when cooperating with US President Trump, who took the oath of office this week, and that Europe will not behave like a "victim."

These two news reports are quite ironic for the newly inaugurated US President Trump. While the US is trying to poach others, its own "cornerstone" is also rapidly crumbling. So, let's continue to observe how Trump will play the game of "diplomatic strategy and distant alliances, offensive against nearby enemies."

Speaking of "diplomatic strategy and distant alliances, offensive against nearby enemies," let's also mention the issue of TikTok.

Although TikTok is registered in the Cayman Islands, it uses many technologies from Chinese companies, such as algorithm technology. The US's "long-arm jurisdiction" over it is somewhat similar to that over ASML. Although ASML is a Dutch company, it uses many technologies from US companies. In response to the US's sinister plot to acquire TikTok, China has adopted a tit-for-tat approach in dealing with the TikTok issue, exercising "long-arm jurisdiction" over the US. It is not difficult to imagine that if TikTok removes the "Chinese factors," whether it's "Chinese technology" or "Chinese economy," would TikTok still be the same TikTok? Obviously, China has already seen through Trump's "cards," that is, whether based on domestic or foreign considerations, if Trump cannot handle relations with China properly, whether through "diplomatic strategy" or "offensive against nearby enemies," he is likely to struggle.

●The Trump administration's foreign policy seems to be shifting towards a stance relatively distant from the Biden administration's pre-November 5, 2024 position

It is worth noting that Trump's flip-flopping on the issue of Ukraine vis-à-vis Russia has drawn attention to the direction of the Trump administration's foreign policy once it officially starts operating. Besides advocating for "strategic retraction" and preparing to continue confronting China through a strategy of "alliance and diplomacy, befriending distant states while attacking nearby ones", the Trump administration's foreign policy seems to be shifting towards a stance relatively distant from the Biden administration's pre-November 5, 2024 position.

Previously, based on the high level of coordination in foreign policy among successive US administrations, East News Interpretation assessed that Trump might become "another Biden" or even "more Biden than Biden" after taking office. Judging from the latest changes in Trump's policy on Ukraine, this assessment has been preliminarily verified. In addition, changes in Trump's foreign policy are also reflected in the Middle East issue.

On January 21st, senior officials of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in Palestine sent friendly signals to US President Donald Trump, who had taken office the day before, saying that they were encouraged by Trump's inaugural address. Hamas hopes to engage in dialogue with the new US administration and has invited Trump's special envoy for the Middle East to visit the Gaza Strip.

Hamas's statement is surely grating to Israel, and Trump's Middle East policy is gradually becoming clear—he is quickly working to stabilize the situation in the Middle East. This is very similar to the Middle East policy stance of the Biden administration pre-November 5, 2024.

It is not difficult to see that Russia, Israel, and the EU are also "hurt" by the Trump administration's foreign policy, with Russia and Israel perhaps feeling it more intensely. The EU can expect the Trump administration's policy towards Europe to ease gradually, after all, whether for internal or external reasons, the US cannot afford to lose its ally, Europe, and needs to appropriately appease the EU's strong reaction. However, the problem is that Trump's strategy of "alliance and diplomacy, befriending distant states while attacking nearby ones" seems to be "going off script" from the outset.

Next, let's discuss Japan, one of the US's "core allies", as an example.

●If the Japanese authorities ultimately agree to permanently stop discharging contaminated water, it means that this issue has officially moved from the "technical realm" to the "political realm"

On January 23rd, when asked about China's independent sampling and testing results of seawater from Japan's Fukushima nuclear contaminated water discharge, the China Atomic Energy Authority stated that the activity concentrations of tritium, cesium-137, strontium-90, and other radionuclides in the samples were not abnormal. The results of this independent sampling and testing only reflect the radioactive levels in the marine environment at a specific time and location.

Regarding China's independent sampling and testing of Japan's Fukushima nuclear contaminated water discharge, it was first reported in the press in October of last year. In our view, the reason for announcing the results only now is probably not due to technical issues, but rather because "the time was ripe". It is worth mentioning that during the independent inspection by Chinese nuclear experts in Fukushima, and even for a considerable period before that, Japan had already stopped discharging, which may be the main reason for the "normal" results of this test. In other words, Japan had high confidence in this test. China naturally "knows this", but did not "immediately announce" the results, waiting for subsequent developments in the international situation.

China's independent investigation was naturally seen as an insult by the Japanese authorities. The reason they ultimately allowed it was that as early as October 2024, during the late term of then-Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, Japan had already clearly signaled a strong intention to adjust its foreign policy.

Although Kishida Fumio "initiated" the process of adjusting Japan's foreign policy, fearing that he could not withdraw cleanly and might even face life-threatening consequences, he ultimately chose to "withdraw halfway". However, the process of adjusting Japan's foreign policy did not stop. After a fierce struggle, this heavy responsibility ultimately fell on the shoulders of the current Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Akira.

It is worth mentioning that according to Chinese customs data, in 2023, China's imports of aquatic products and related products from Japan amounted to USD 350 million, a year-on-year decrease of 39.2%, accounting for 25% of total agricultural imports from Japan. Among them, shellfish and related products amounted to USD 180 million, a year-on-year decrease of 47.8%, and fish and related products amounted to USD 120 million, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9%. It can be said that in 2023, Sino-Japanese trade in aquatic products fell to its lowest level in three years. In addition, to date, 19 countries, including China, South Korea, Malaysia, Russia, the United States, and even distant countries such as Switzerland, Kuwait, Senegal, and Panama, have boycotted it on the grounds of food safety and environmental issues. It is not difficult to see that China's total ban on Japanese "aquatic products" has dealt a significant blow to the Japanese economy, especially the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries industry. Reports indicate that the incident of Japan discharging nuclear contaminated water has directly impacted the sales of aquatic products in Japanese supermarkets. Not only are aquatic products labeled as originating from Fukushima being sold at heavily discounted prices with no takers, but it has also directly affected aquatic product workers in non-Fukushima areas, with their products being canceled. Interestingly, Japanese people's concerns about food safety have led them to "vote with their feet" and choose to buy imported aquatic products, making Japan the largest buyer of Chinese aquatic products in 2023.

The incident of Japan discharging nuclear contaminated water is indeed a result of the extremely selfish decision-making of the far-right Japanese regime, but it was also encouraged and indulged by the US government. It is worth mentioning that due to ocean currents, the country most directly and severely affected by Japan's discharge of nuclear contaminated water is not China, but the United States. However, the US government still insists on it out of some unspeakable sinister intentions, which is despicable.

The incident of Japan discharging nuclear contaminated water is a "pit" for Japan, both in terms of traditional and non-traditional security. The Japanese authorities now have to painfully acknowledge that turning to the US for this issue is useless, and the only solution is to seek a resolution from China.

In our observation and assessment, there is a high possibility that Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Akira is eager to visit China and has "new requests" regarding the testing of nuclear contaminated water, such as asking China to immediately lift the ban on imports of Japanese aquatic products. However, in our view, the possibility of the Japanese authorities getting away with this issue is zero.

After the China Atomic Energy Authority issued the independent testing results on January 23rd regarding the discharge of nuclear contaminated water from Japan's Fukushima plant, it specifically emphasized the following statement: The results of this independent sampling and testing only reflect the radioactive levels in the marine environment at a specific time and location.

In our observation, "the results of this independent sampling and testing only reflect the radioactive levels in the marine environment at a specific time and location" means the following:

First, China is well aware of the tricks played by the Japanese authorities regarding the discharge of nuclear contaminated water from the Fukushima plant.

Second, based on the first point, China is clearly hinting to Japan that this test only has an "immediate effect" and not a "long-term effect".

Third, based on the second point, China does not rule out proposing "unannounced inspections", that is, inspections at any time and place. Of course, whether or not Japan agrees, Ishiba Akira can still visit China. However, if Japan does not agree, there is no point in mentioning the lifting of the ban on imports of Japanese aquatic products. In other words, if Japan wants to completely resolve the issue, the only way is to permanently stop discharging nuclear contaminated water.

Fourth, based on the third point, if the Japanese authorities ultimately agree to permanently stop discharging nuclear contaminated water, it means that the issue of Japan discharging nuclear contaminated water has officially moved from the "technical realm" to the "political realm". In other words, at this moment, Japan is "choosing sides" between China and the US in politics, especially in economics.

Fifth, based on the fourth point, since Japan is one of the US's "core allies", if Japan "chooses sides" between China and the US, it will deal a heavy blow to the US's "West Pacific Security Framework" and even its global strategy. This means that in the future, Japan will take more proactive measures in trade issues with the US, become more economically dependent on China, and make national decisions based more on its own interests rather than those of the US, and may even withdraw from the US-led "US-Japan-South Korea Semiconductor Alliance".

Sixth, based on the above five points, China will inevitably broadcast the subsequent developments of Japan's discharge of nuclear-contaminated water to all aspects, whether it's the United States attempting to play any tricks like "uniting some against others or befriending distant states while attacking nearby ones," or Europe, Russia, India, Iran, etc., that are preparing to or have already labeled themselves as "targets of such alliances." There is only one "aside": America has stooped so low, so you decide what to do!

●Allies are not allies, lackeys are not lackeys, and internal enemies still exist, only shifting their ground. Is this another form of "collapse of morality and order" for the American empire?

Recently, we noticed a news report from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stating that "Soros lost the battle in the United States, and Trump's victory became his Waterloo."

Although they both represent Western capital interests within the United States, there is a "natural enemy"-like relationship between Musk and Soros, which is a specific manifestation of the deep division within American capital interests. This manifestation has been significantly amplified by the recent U.S. presidential election. Now, the "Soroses" are clearly retreating to Europe, where they will regroup and ponder how to counterattack the "Trumps" and "Musks."

Historically, many parties engaged in intense internal struggles have sought "external assistance." The "Soroses" seem to be looking to the European Union, and even Russia, as their "external assistance." For Trump, seeking China as his "external assistance" seems much more realistic.

Trump's troubles stem not only from the "internal strife" level (Note: The struggle between the "Musks" and the "Soroses" is part of the "internal strife" in the United States, and the "internal strife" between the "Trumps" and the "Bidens" is still ongoing. Trump has even threatened to reveal the truth about the Kennedy assassination. Furthermore, even within the "Trump camp," there are disputes, such as the conflict between the "Musks" and the "Stargate" project involving OpenAI and SoftBank) and seeking "external assistance," but also from the "external" level, including how to stabilize Ukraine and especially the Middle East situation.

Although we mentioned earlier that Trump seems to be moving towards a foreign policy that is relatively distant from that of the Biden administration as of November 5, 2024, this does not mean that Trump's foreign policy, such as his Middle East policy, can completely return to what it was before. Due to the Biden administration's extreme selfishness stemming from "partisan politics," America's Middle East policy is in shambles. Not to mention, the "nine dragons governing the waters" situation in Syria and the European Union's attempt to actively intervene is enough to give Trump a headache for a while. In this situation, it seems quite ridiculous for Trump to continue playing the game of "creating problems with one hand and solving them with the other" or "carrot and stick" in dealing with China. As we mentioned earlier, whether domestically or internationally, if Trump wants to play the game of "diplomatic maneuvering," the premise is to handle relations with China properly. It is not hard to imagine that if the Trump administration cannot handle relations with China steadily, all parties will "immediately" know how to deal with the United States.

Taking the current situation as an example, Trump's strategy of "diplomatic maneuvering and attacking nearby while befriending distant" has not yet been fully implemented, and the situation has already reached a point where "allies are not allies" and "lackeys are not lackeys." The problem is that internal enemies still exist, only shifting their ground, using Europe as a base to fight against the Trump administration. They may even appear more as "European capital" in the future. In this situation, how can the United States (the Trump administration) achieve its goals in Ukraine and the Middle East policies?

●What is the Trump administration's attitude towards China's "befriending distant countries while attacking nearby ones"?

Finally, let's briefly talk about the "Seagull" operation's success in cracking down on telecom fraud cases.

On January 21st, the Lancang-Mekong Law Enforcement and Security Cooperation Center held a summary meeting for the "Seagull" joint operation in Kunming, Yunnan. Reporters learned from the meeting that from August to December 2024, law enforcement agencies from Cambodia, China, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam jointly combated regional telecom network fraud crimes and their derivative crimes, as well as gun and ammunition smuggling crimes. During the operation, all parties cracked down on over 160 cases, mainly telecom fraud cases, arrested more than 70,000 criminal suspects, and rescued over 160 victims.

In our view, China is publicly testing the Trump administration's attitude towards China's handling of this issue in front of all parties. Will they tacitly approve, as the Biden administration did in the previous stage of handling this issue, or will they be dissatisfied?

It should be added that the issue in Cambodia is more of an internal political matter. Cambodia indeed wants to seek a balance between China and the United States to maximize its interests. As a result, China withdrew, and the wealth and prosperity disappeared. The Hun family (the father and son are playing a double act, primarily considering their own private interests, such as replacing the Cambodian royalty and becoming the sole dominant force. Frankly, they are too self-righteous, and there's no way they can harm or extort China. As for the canal, like Vietnam, they can be left aside for 20 years and continue to be bullied by Vietnam. If this continues, Cambodia will not develop. If the Hun Sens continue to be deluded, the consequences are unpredictable, and there are people within Cambodia who can replace them at any time.) got nothing.

If Vietnam really wants to build a railway, the South China Sea issue must be thoroughly resolved. As for your belief that China building a northern railway is dividing Vietnam, then we don't have to build it. Moreover, the horizontal connection of the China-Laos railway is intended to connect with China. Therefore, it is most suitable to build it in the north. If Vietnam eventually leans towards China, Cambodia will have even fewer options. With the opening of the China-Laos railway, it will drive the development of China-Thailand and China-Vietnam railways, and Cambodia can completely bypass them. As for Myanmar, it may not progress smoothly until the US is dealt with. So, in this matter, we really can't rush it.

[Related Topics]

Issue 7747 - Trump Shortens the Postponement Period for the TikTok Ban from 90 Days to 75 Days, What Signal Is He Sending to the Outside World? (2025-01-21)
Issue 7751 - Oriental Commentary: China's Top Leader Holds a Video Meeting with Russian President Putin (2025-01-22)
Issue 7755 - Why Is the Trump Administration's Foreign Policy, Especially on Ukraine and the Middle East, Starting to Revert to the Biden Administration's Policy Before November 5, 2024? (2025-01-23)

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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