https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R2sZufFqvPEOeYZI-z0QfQ
2025年1月18日，星期六，第1161期 美国“新、老军工复合体”若“结婚”并“开枝散叶”，或可作为观察拜登与特朗普顺利交接的切入点之一 【媒体报道】 1月17日，援引一名“直接了解”拜登言论的人士称，去年11月大选后，拜登私下曾考虑过赦免特朗普，认为这是一个展示宽宏大量的举动。 1月17日，白俄罗斯共和国总统卢卡申科表示，美国有兴趣与白俄罗斯合作，如果两国当局同意，两国将进行互动。 1月17日，*******应约同美国当选总统特朗普通电话。 1月17日，刚刚结束访华行程的日本自民党干事长森山裕再次透露，日本首相石破茂有意尽早访华。 【讨论纪要】 ●拜登与特朗普有可能“顺利交班”的明显迹象已经出现 1月17日，援引一名“直接了解”拜登言论的人士称，去年11月大选后，拜登私下曾考虑过赦免特朗普。拜登认为这是一个展示宽宏大量的举动。 对于上述新闻报道，我们首先想要强调的是： 第一，如果拜登真的赦免特朗普，那特朗普将不再背负重罪。就在大约一周前，也就是1月10日，美国纽约州最高法院法官胡安·梅尔就美国候任总统特朗普所涉“封口费”案作出判决，宣布特朗普为重罪犯，但予以无条件释放； 第二，在“第一”的基础上，这或意味着拜登与“拜登们”至少目前阶段，愿意与特朗普与“特朗普们”顺利交接权力。值得一提的是，这种“先判罪，后赦免”的手法是西方政客最常用的“左手制造问题，右手解决问题”。只不过这一次，拜登与“拜登们”将其用在了“美国的内部敌人”——美国当选总统特朗普身上； 第三，在“第二”的基础上，如果权力交接顺利，在特朗普顺利上台后，不排除拜登的名字会列在特朗普“赦免名单”上的可能性。如果简单调侃一下，也许拜登的名字会列在名单的最后。 ●对“老军工复合体”来说，所谓“另谋出路”，重点或就在“和平扩军”四个字上 近日，即将下台的拜登政府与美国军工复合体、科技工业综合体之间的矛盾全面激化。需要强调的是，如果我们将“美国军工复合体”称之为“老军工复合体”，那么以马斯克之流为代表的所谓“科技工业综合体”则可以称之为“新军工复合体”。两者之间即矛盾尖锐，但也不排除未来进行合作，甚至深度合作的可能性。可能合作的方向之一是共同开发、生产基于AI、深度信息化、无人化等新兴理念的武器系统；方向之二则是“相互深度参股”。 值得一提的是，近段时间，美国当选总统特朗普勒令北约成员增加军费占其GDP的5%，结果，以德国为代表的“老欧洲”和以波兰为代表的“新欧洲”纷纷表示“臣妾做不到”。 在“老军工复合体”眼中，尽管，基于欧洲国家的反应，特朗普“画饼”能否实现还要打个问号，但是，特朗普毕竟选赢了，而且特朗普至少表达了其对“老军工复合体”应有的诚意。所以，但凡有机会，还是与特朗普和“特朗普们”合作较为符合“老军工复合体”的长远利益。 此外，随着特朗普的正式上台，美国执行战略收缩策略或成为现实，这意味目前以乌克兰政策、中东政策为代表的美国对外政策比之拜登时期会有所变化，且这种变化很可能伴随着“战争烈度”的相对减弱。这意味着此前，依靠“发战争财”赚得盆满钵满的时期已经过去，对“老军工复合体”而言，想要继续赚钱，需要另谋出路。所谓“另谋出路”，在我们的观察与评估中，重点或在“和平扩军”四个字上。 在“老军工复合体”看来，就算5%增加军费无法做到，但哪怕是一半，也就是2.5%，也能立刻“变现”。众所周知，俄乌战争自2022年2月24日爆发到今天，已经进行了将近三年，且仍在继续。对于支持乌克兰泽连斯基的欧美国家来说，武备库存早已消耗殆尽，急需增补库存。可以说，增加的每一分军费都会立刻成为“老军工复合体”的订单。 ●你站在桥上看风景，却不知看风景的人却在楼上看你 对国际社会来说，如果拜登和特朗普真的最终能够顺利交班，绝对是好事一件，相当于西方更进一步倾向于选择主动接受“河渡人”的局面。之所以强调“更进一步”，就在于，基于目前国际局势变化的种种迹象，这只是一种趋势。如果将其放在围绕本次美国总统大选展开的美国两党“恶斗”的问题上，特朗普和拜登之间的争斗显然并不是到1月20日就会戛然而止，某种意义上说，其后续发展仍旧不可预测。 如果拜登和特朗普真的最终能够顺利交班，如果特朗普打算将美国战略收缩策略落到实处并开玩合纵连横，和中国相对缓和关系则是必要前提之一。2025年1月17日晚，*******应约同美国当选总统特朗普通电话。这一新闻报道初步证实了上述评估。而从“应约”二字不难看出，显然对于缓和对华关系一事，特朗普还是蛮着急的。 所以，真到了关键时刻，驻韩美军（美军）到底听谁的还真不好说。不过有一点可以肯定，随着拜登与特朗普有可能“顺利交班”的明显迹象已经出现，韩国总统尹锡悦成为“弃子”的可能性在大幅增加。 需要再次强调的是，如果特朗普选择执行美国战略收缩策略，尽管是其更进一步选择主动接受“河渡人”的具体表现，但其中显然内嵌了通过合纵连横继续对抗中国的战略企图。所以，这意味着，本质上，其最终选择妥协认怂与选择“孤注一掷、狗急跳墙”的比率仍未“五五开”，且国际社会尤其要对其可能玩一手“前一秒孤注一掷，下一秒妥协认怂”做好充分准备。在此基础上，对国际社会而言，不过是“我走我的阳关道，你过你的独木桥”“见人说人话，见鬼说鬼话”；又道是“你站在桥上看风景，却不知看风景的人也在楼上看你”。 ●美国“新、老军工复合体”若“结婚”并“开枝散叶”，或可作为观察拜登与特朗普顺利交接的切入点之一 合纵连横，某种意义上说，对于不同程度认知的国家而言，也是“横看成岭侧成峰，远近高低各不同”。在日本首相石破茂再次表露愿意尽快访华之意向的同时，俄罗斯、伊朗却仍将自己置于“被合纵国”的角色上玩得不亦乐乎。对此，显然白俄罗斯有了更进一步的“自己的想法”。 1月17日，白俄罗斯共和国总统卢卡申科表示，美国有兴趣与白俄罗斯合作，如果两国当局同意，两国将进行互动。 连同日本首相石破茂再次表露愿意尽快访华这一消息，这两条新闻报道的出现对美国和俄罗斯而言颇具讽刺意味——当美国要玩战略收缩的时候，美国的“核心盟友”日本跑得比谁都快。当俄罗斯“插标卖首”的时候，俄罗斯的“核心盟友”白俄罗斯同样跑得比谁都快。而更为讽刺的是，有关俄罗斯与伊朗签署的那份“千呼万唤始出来”的全面战略合作协议细节被披露后，本来就无意签署什么军事盟约的伊朗，尤其是俄罗斯，也许出于某些外界无法理解的因素，还是强行在协议中塞入了相关军事的内容——在俄罗斯或伊朗遭受攻击时，另外一方不得向侵略者提供任何援助。 在我们的观察与评估中，“在俄罗斯或伊朗遭受攻击时，另外一方不得向侵略者提供任何援助”这一内容实在让人忍俊不禁，列出来还不如不列出来。唯一的作用或就在于，双方通过这样一种近乎“公开下跪”的姿态对美国，对西方强调俄罗斯和伊朗的“人畜无害”性。这也是我们说俄罗斯在叙利亚问题上（叙利亚阿萨德政权被颠覆）要负主要责任的主要原因。 俄罗斯和伊朗商量好了的“萨克撒洪水行动”没有和国际社会商量。俄罗斯和西方愿意在叙利亚保持一种默契，说到底还是阿富汗政策小九九作怪。讽刺的是，俄罗斯16日强调有义务确保白俄罗斯的安全，却在17日与伊朗签署了这份荒唐的协议。然而，24小时未过，白俄罗斯方面就用“美国对于白俄罗斯合作感兴趣”对俄罗斯所谓“有义务确保白俄罗斯的安全”做出回应。 最后需要补充的是，我们注意到，国防初创公司Anduril融资15亿美元，用于生产人工智能武器，传闻马斯克是英特尔潜在买家的新闻报道。 很显然，代言西方资本利益的美国资本利益内部仍在“重组”之中。特朗普一边给“老军工复合体”画饼，另一边却在不遗余力地扶持“新军工复合体”，如果再加上“一切为了股市”这句话，拜登与特朗普顺利交接权力的可能性不小。一旦美国“新、老军工复合体”若“结婚”并“开枝散叶”，或可作为观察拜登与特朗普顺利交接的切入点之一。 【相关话题】 第7729期－为什么说2015年至今，国际社会或已至少三次以类似“百团大战”的方式阻止“俄向西方妥协、投降”？（2025-1-15） 声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。
Saturday, January 18, 2025, Issue No. 1161 If the "new and old military-industrial complexes" in the US "marry" and "branch out," it could serve as one of the entry points for observing a smooth transition between Biden and Trump. [Media Coverage] On January 17th, citing a person with "direct knowledge" of Biden's remarks, it was reported that after the November election last year, Biden privately considered pardoning Trump, seeing it as a gesture of magnanimity. On January 17th, President Lukashenko of the Republic of Belarus stated that the United States is interested in cooperating with Belarus, and if the authorities of both countries agree, they will engage in interaction. On January 17th, ******* had a telephone conversation with former U.S. President Trump at the latter's request. On January 17th, Moriyama Hiroshi, Secretary-General of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, who had just concluded his visit to China, revealed again that Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru intends to visit China as soon as possible. 【Discussion Summary】 ● Obvious signs of a potentially "smooth transition" between Biden and Trump have emerged. On January 17th, citing a person with "direct knowledge" of Biden's remarks, it was reported that after the November election last year, Biden privately considered pardoning Trump, seeing it as a gesture of magnanimity. Regarding the above news reports, we first want to emphasize the following points: First, if Biden really pardons Trump, Trump will no longer bear the burden of a felony conviction. Just about a week ago, on January 10th, Juan Merchan, a judge of the New York Supreme Court, ruled on the "hush money" case involving President-elect Trump, declaring him a felon but releasing him unconditionally; Second, based on the "first" point, this may imply that Biden and "the Bidens" are at least willing, at this stage, to have a smooth transition of power with Trump and "the Trumps." It's worth mentioning that this "convict first, pardon later" approach is a common tactic used by Western politicians, namely "creating problems with the left hand and solving them with the right hand." It's just that this time, Biden and "the Bidens" used it on "America's internal enemy" – former U.S. President Trump; Third, based on the "second" point, if the power transition goes smoothly and Trump takes office without incident, it is not impossible that Biden's name could appear on Trump's "pardon list." If we want to joke about it, perhaps Biden's name will be at the bottom of the list. ● For the "old military-industrial complex," the key to "seeking alternative pathways" may lie in the phrase "peaceful military expansion." Recently, conflicts between the outgoing Biden administration and the US military-industrial complex, as well as the tech-industrial complex, have escalated comprehensively. It's important to emphasize that if we refer to the "US military-industrial complex" as the "old military-industrial complex," then the so-called "tech-industrial complex" represented by figures like Elon Musk can be called the "new military-industrial complex." Although there are sharp contradictions between the two, the possibility of future cooperation, even deep collaboration, cannot be ruled out. One potential direction for cooperation is the joint development and production of weapon systems based on emerging concepts such as AI, deep information technology, and unmanned operations; another direction is "mutual deep equity participation." It's worth mentioning that recently, US President-elect Trump ordered NATO members to increase their military spending to 5% of their GDP. However, both "old Europe" represented by Germany and "new Europe" represented by Poland have responded with "we can't do it." In the eyes of the "old military-industrial complex", although it is doubtful whether Trump's "pie drawing" can be realized based on the reaction of European countries, Trump has won the election after all, and Trump has at least expressed his sincerity to the "old military-industrial complex".Therefore, whenever there is an opportunity, it is more in line with the long-term interests of the "old military-industrial complex" to cooperate with Trump and "the Trumps." Furthermore, with Trump's official taking of office, the implementation of a US strategic retraction policy may become a reality. This means that current US foreign policies, represented by policies towards Ukraine and the Middle East, will change compared to the Biden era, and this change is likely to be accompanied by a relative decrease in the "intensity of war." This implies that the period of making huge profits by "profiteering from war" is over. For the "old military-industrial complex," to continue making money, they need to seek alternative pathways. In our observation and assessment, the key to "seeking alternative pathways" may lie in the phrase "peaceful military expansion." In the view of the "old military-industrial complex," even if a 5% increase in military spending is not feasible, half of that, which is 2.5%, can be immediately "cashed in." As we all know, the Russia-Ukraine war, which has been ongoing since February 24, 2022, has lasted for nearly three years and is still continuing. For European and American countries that support Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, their armaments inventories have long been depleted, and there is an urgent need to replenish them. It can be said that every penny of increased military spending will immediately become an order for the "old military-industrial complex." ● You stand on the bridge and look at the view, unaware that those who are looking at the view are also watching you from above. For the international community, if Biden and Trump can indeed successfully transition, it would be a good thing, equivalent to the West being more inclined to choose to actively accept the situation of being "ferried across the river" by others. The reason for emphasizing "more inclined" is that, based on various signs of changes in the current international situation, this is only a trend. If we look at the issue of the fierce "battle" between the two US political parties surrounding this presidential election, the conflict between Trump and Biden will obviously not come to an abrupt end on January 20th. In a sense, its subsequent development remains unpredictable. If Biden and Trump can indeed successfully transition, and if Trump intends to implement the US strategic retraction policy and play the game of diplomacy, one of the necessary prerequisites is to relatively ease relations with China. On the evening of January 17, 2025, ******* had a telephone conversation with US President-elect Trump as scheduled. This news report preliminarily confirms the above assessment. And from the word "as scheduled," it is not difficult to see that Trump is quite eager to ease relations with China. Therefore, when it really comes to the critical moment, it's hard to say who the US troops stationed in South Korea will listen to. However, one thing is certain: with the emergence of obvious signs that Biden and Trump may "successfully transition," the possibility of South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl becoming a "pawn to be sacrificed" is greatly increased. It needs to be emphasized again that if Trump chooses to implement the US strategic retraction policy, although it is a specific manifestation of his further choice to actively accept being "ferried across the river" by others, it obviously embeds a strategic intention to continue confronting China through diplomacy. Therefore, this means that, essentially, the ratio of his ultimate choice between compromising and conceding versus "going all in and making a desperate move" is still not "50-50," and the international community must be fully prepared for the possibility that he may play a trick of "going all in one second and compromising the next." On this basis, for the international community, it's just a matter of "I'll go my way, and you go yours," "speaking human language to humans and ghost language to ghosts"; and as the saying goes, "you stand on the bridge and look at the view, unaware that those who are looking at the view are also watching you from above." ●If the "new and old military-industrial complexes" in the US "marry" and "branch out," it could serve as one of the entry points for observing a smooth transition between Biden and Trump. In a sense, alliances and counter-alliances are like "mountains viewed from different angles, each presenting a different aspect" to countries with varying levels of understanding. While Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has once again expressed his willingness to visit China as soon as possible, Russia and Iran continue to revel in their roles as "countries being allied against." In response, it is evident that Belarus has developed its own "ideas." On January 17th, President Lukashenko of the Republic of Belarus stated that the United States is interested in cooperating with Belarus, and if the authorities of both countries agree, they will engage in interactions. Together with the news that Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has once again expressed his willingness to visit China as soon as possible, these two reports are ironic for both the United States and Russia – when the US wants to pursue strategic retraction, its "core ally" Japan is quicker than anyone to distance itself. When Russia appears to be "selling itself out," its "core ally" Belarus is similarly quicker than anyone to do the same. What is even more ironic is that after the details of the long-awaited comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran were disclosed, Iran, which had no intention of signing any military alliance, and Russia, perhaps due to factors incomprehensible to the outside world, still forcibly included military-related content in the agreement – neither party shall provide any assistance to the aggressor if Russia or Iran is attacked. In our observation and assessment, the clause stating that "neither party shall provide any assistance to the aggressor if Russia or Iran is attacked" is downright ridiculous. It would have been better not to include it at all. Its only purpose may be for both parties to emphasize to the US and the West, through such a nearly "public kneeling" gesture, that Russia and Iran are "harmless." This is also the main reason why we say that Russia bears primary responsibility for the situation in Syria (where the Assad regime was overturned). Russia and Iran conspired on the "Saksa Flood Operation" without consulting the international community. Russia and the West are willing to maintain a tacit understanding in Syria, ultimately due to their ulterior motives in Afghanistan policy. Ironically, Russia emphasized on the 16th that it has an obligation to ensure the security of Belarus, but on the 17th, it signed this absurd agreement with Iran. However, within 24 hours, Belarus responded to Russia's so-called "obligation to ensure Belarus's security" with the news that "the US is interested in cooperating with Belarus." Lastly, it is worth noting that defense startup Anduril has raised $1.5 billion to produce AI weapons, and there are rumors that Musk is a potential buyer of Intel. It is evident that the internal restructuring of US capital interests, which represent Western capital interests, is still ongoing. Trump is both drawing a pie-in-the-sky for the "old military-industrial complex" and sparing no effort to support the "new military-industrial complex." If we add the phrase "everything for the stock market," the possibility of a smooth transition of power between Biden and Trump is not small. If the "new and old military-industrial complexes" in the US "marry" and "branch out," it could serve as one of the entry points for observing a smooth transition between Biden and Trump. [Related Topics] Issue 7729 - Why has the international community possibly prevented "Russia from compromising and surrendering to the West" at least three times in a manner similar to the "Hundred Regiments Offensive" since 2015? (January 15, 2025)
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