2025年1月15日，星期三，第1158期

为什么说2015年至今，国际社会或已至少三次以类似“百团大战”的方式阻止“俄向西方妥协、投降”？

【媒体报道】

1月13日，俄罗斯联邦安全会议副主席梅德韦杰夫在社交媒体上表示，以所谓“德国模式”解决俄乌冲突的方案，仅是基于“俄罗斯解体”的幻想。

1月14日，伊朗与英国、法国、德国外交官13日在瑞士日内瓦举行新一轮对话。伊朗外长阿拉格齐接受伊朗媒体采访时表示，对话的主要内容是讨论如何恢复伊朗核谈判。

1月14日，俄罗斯已准备好在美国候任总统特朗普1月20日就职后，研究其提出的关于结束俄乌冲突的想法。

【讨论纪要】

●美国内部“恶斗”不但没有弱化，反而再度升级且“刀刀见骨”

随着美国当选总统特朗普即将上台，国际局势后续发展，进入所谓国际版“战国”时期的迹象愈发明显。如果最终特朗普之“疯狂计划”得以落实，美国正式开启“以进为退”模式下的全球战略收缩进程，那么，在国际秩序“礼崩乐坏”并走向世界版“战国”时期的背景下，基于类似中国古代战国中期的“秦齐模式”，也就是“两强并立”之“中美模式”，全球范围内的“合纵连横”运动或即将拉开帷幕。

我们注意到。韩国总统尹锡悦被捕后发表演讲，其支持率不跌反升。此前我们有关1月20日之前，如果拜登与“拜登们”和特朗普与“特朗普们”谈不妥，韩国总统尹锡悦可能被审判的相关评估得到了进一步验证。显然，拜登与“拜登们”首先，对内，对特朗普和“特朗普们”摆出了一副“随时准备掀桌子”的姿态。

此外，美国内部“恶斗”再度升级的另一个迹象，也体现在拜登政府决定将古巴从“支恐”名单中移除这一最新动态上。这显然不利于即将上台的特朗普政府推行所谓“美国统一美洲”进程。或者说，特朗普想要顺利“统一美洲”是无法绕不开古巴这个“政治抗美中心”的。将古巴从“支恐”名单中移除，就是破坏特朗普“统一美洲”的抓手。如果特朗普上台后打算绕过这个“坑”，再次将古巴放回“支恐”名单的话，如此出尔反尔，特朗普政府的信用何在？

值得一提的是，从“吹牛老爹”的豪宅毁于加州山火、相关证据毁于一旦的传闻来观察，基于与美国政治，甚至西方政治中很多见不得光的丑闻瓜葛甚深的所谓“美国演艺圈”中一众人等的房产均毁于加州山火的现实，如果关于加州山火后续发展中出现“某某艺人，或涉及某些重要案件的关键证人死于火灾”之类的新闻报道，只能说明美国内部“恶斗”不但没有弱化，反而再度升级且“刀刀见骨”。

随着时间逐渐临近1月20日，拜登政府按“先中东，后乌克兰，最后西太”的顺序，以韩国总统尹锡悦弹劾案、乌克兰对俄罗斯境内纵深目标发动最大规模打击、美军或直接对伊朗进行军事打击为代表，已经在各自地区局势后续发展中“插入雷管”。这意味着国际局势很可能因美国内部恶斗升价激烈而失控的可能性。对此，国际社会务必高度警惕。

●在合纵连横的过程中，如果想要压制对手、谋取优势，并保持、积累优势直到最后胜利的前提是，能够稳住自己并不断发展壮大自己

‌合纵连横是战国中期产生的一种外交策略，也是在“秦、齐模式”，也就是两强并立的格局下产生的一种外交策略。其中伴随着小国不断被兼并，也是各方，尤其是秦、齐两国综合实力的直接比拼。每一次合纵连横的发动，都要消耗不菲的战略资源。

按照以上的说法，古巴显然也是“合纵国”或“被合纵”的对象之一，有可能像俄罗斯与伊朗那样主动寻求享受“合纵国”身份下的好处与便利，也有可能被中、美分别争取。以美国为例，在特朗普的计划中，美国会拿古巴作为反例去合纵其他美洲国家，以期达到“统一美洲”的战略意图。但从拜登政府在即将下台前将古巴移出“支恐”名单的情况来看，合纵连横还未开始，美国似乎就要开始消耗本就有限的战略资源了。‌

我们注意到有关沙特希望利用核能来实现能源结构多样化的新闻报道。

早在2018年，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼就曾表示，如果地区竞争对手伊朗发展核武器，沙特也将这样做。在我们看来，至少从2017年开始，无论是沙特准备涉核，还是准备拥核，其合作对象都已成为中国。值得一提的是，以沙特为首的海湾阿拉伯国家已经介入叙利亚局势的后续发展之中。也就是说，尽管中国至今尚无意直接介入叙利亚局势后续发展，但并不意味着中国对叙利亚局势后续发展没有影响力。

2024年，中国开启大规模“爆兵”模式。特朗普开始炒作吞并加拿大、格陵兰和巴拿马（特朗普内心已怂）以及美国将要战略收缩等话题，就是在珠海航展和中国连续曝光两款“六代机”之后，主打“诛心”二字！进入2025年后，中国又开启大规模“曝矿”模式。这意味着，如果国际局势进一步恶化，并导致全球经济进一步加速滑向“满地鸡毛”之深水区，我们有能力启动“最低经济内循环”。

对中国来说，破解美国通过合纵连横的方式与中国进行博弈之战略企图的最好的办法就是远交近攻。当然，远交近攻指的是我们也会采取类似的合纵连横手段与美国进行博弈，只是在博弈的过程中，有所侧重。其本质是首先做好自己。也就是说，在合纵连横的过程中，如果想要压制对手、谋取优势，并保持、积累优势直到最后胜利的前提是，能够稳住自己并不断发展壮大自己。

●2015年至今，国际社会或已至少三次以类似“百团大战”的方式阻止“俄向西方妥协、投降”

值得一提的是，2024年12月26日，在中国连续爆两款六代机之前的24小时，有传闻称，俄罗斯有一架神秘的高级别飞机飞到了美国。

尽管我们不知道这架神秘飞机上是否搭乘俄罗斯的高官或哪一个级别的高官，但这一情况还是让我们想起2015年7月，俄罗斯出卖伊朗，通过迫使伊朗签订伊核协议向西方妥协，且此后中国果断调整相关经济、金融政策的那一历史阶段。也就是我们常说的“七月流火，八月未央，九月授衣”。

类似的情况还有，2018年2月8日，俄罗斯一支成建制部队在叙利亚被歼灭，且俄罗斯在第一，第二时间均未做出有效反应后，中国感觉到俄罗斯出现了迅速且幅度极大的妥协投降倾向，于是中国再次果断进行战略调整，于2月9日宣布“3月26日人民币原油期货正式上线”（此前一天，朝鲜领导人金正恩秘密访华），就此打响了对西方金融霸权的第一枪。

如果后续国际局势发展证明俄罗斯一架神秘高级别飞机飞到美国，与俄罗斯在叙利亚阿萨德政权被颠覆后，在与西方再次媾和、妥协的问题上再度出现剧烈摇摆有关，那么，2024年12月26日中国连续曝出两款六代机就显得非常具有针对性。

俄罗斯普京政权的妥协性，或者说，始终持续的“妥协又妥协的不彻底，抵抗又抵抗的不坚决”让我们想起了抗日战争时期的国民党蒋介石政府。有趣的是，发生在1940年，著名的“百团大战”，其在战略层面获得的一个巨大成就是，坚决遏制了当时国民党蒋介石政府在对日投降、妥协问题上的剧烈摇摆倾向。

所以，2015年至今，某种意义上说，国际社会或已至少三次以类似“百团大战”的方式阻止“俄向西方妥协、投降”。且在这一过程中，如当年毛主席所说的“急不得”的抗日战争一样，争取到了宝贵的战略发展时间，也就是“河渡人”。

局势发展到了今天，俄乌战争已经爆发且仍在持续，被拖在“三线作战”之中难以自拔的美国在全球版的“叙利亚局势后续发展”层面不得不玩什么战略收缩，玩什么合纵连横，同样表现出其世界霸权，尤其是金融霸权对世界控制能力大幅下降，霸权旁落的明显迹象。这既体现了俄罗斯、伊朗这些美国的敌人已经将自己带入“合纵国”的角色，迫不及待地享受“合纵国”身份下的好处和便利，更体现在美国的一些核心盟友身上，如，英国和日本。关键在于，美国玩战略收缩也好，合纵连横也罢，都需要时间。

●即便如此，经济版的“合纵连横”美国恐也是“还未开始就已落了下风”

我们注意到，俄罗斯二号政治人物梅德韦杰夫否定“德国模式”解决俄乌冲突可能性的新闻报道。

显然，即便西方统一将乌克兰一分为二，俄罗斯仍有要求要提，那就是“另一半乌克兰”不能加入北约。这就是要价，“合纵国”的要价。对此，恐怕西方很难接受。但无论如何，西方，美国是要付出更大代价的。至少，美国现有的中东政策已经明显表现出会妨碍美国拉拢欧盟和俄罗斯。

和俄罗斯“一直心思活泛”类似，日本也是如此。日本公开和美国最大的敌人——中国，开展联系，完全不拿美国“西太安全框架”（美国全球战略两大支柱之一，另一个是北约）的稳定当回事，这又何尝不是日本也基于“合纵国”的角度和美国讨价还价？

有消息称，英伟达CEO黄仁勋即将访华，某种意义上说，这是否意味着美国内部也有我们可以开展合纵连横的对象呢？恐怕答案是肯定的。在我们看来，其中就包括了美国的企业，美国产业链的关键环节，甚至普通的美国百姓。

在黄仁勋看来，中国是很多新兴产业方兴未艾之地，且随着中国在芯片产业上的巨大突破，很快就会自成体系，且会在不断循环升级的过程中对外扩散。也就是说，中国市场的范围将远远超过中国本土，如果不加入，就是等死。黄仁勋显然已经“用脚投票”（行动胜于雄辩）。

此外，我们还注意到，中国商务部14日发布的公告。公告宣布将7家美国实体列入“不可靠实体清单”。中国商务部新闻发言人当天称，7家公司严重损害中国主权、安全、发展利益，中方依法追究其不法责任。

在我们看来，这次处罚的理由是涉及“对台军售”，处理的力度可谓非常严厉。不排除相关处罚基于“寇可往吾亦可往”的层面，发展为“长臂管辖”的可能性。一旦中国真的执行“长臂管辖”，英伟达必死无疑，如果英伟达不与这些遭遇制裁的美国军工企业做切割的话。这恐怕是黄仁勋赶在中国农历春节访问中国，玩一出“身在曹营心在汉”的主要原因。

从黄仁勋即将访华的情况来看，这次反制行动的首要目在于，迫使这些准备或已经在华营业的，且想要好好做生意赚钱的美国企业，首先要和这些被制裁的军工企业做切割，或准备做切割，否则后果自负！也就是说，正式迫使美国企业启动“站队”进程。包括欧日公司在内，首先在诸如“台独”问题上“站队”。这可以看作是经济层面的合纵连横。即便如此，美国恐也处于“还未开始就已落下风”的尴尬境地。

【相关话题】

第7718期－基于美国“战略收缩”或可能“假戏真唱”，小谈美国进一步控制美洲的可能手段（2025-1-12）
第7721期－结合美国防部副部长离任前“别没事挑衅中国引发冲突”讲话，回看2015年“转折年”（2025-1-13）
第7725期－美国的命运会像中国春秋战国时期，热衷于“合纵”的齐国那样，在战国末期不战而降吗？（2025-1-14）

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Wednesday, January 15, 2025, Issue No. 1158

Why is it said that since 2015, the international community may have prevented "Russia from compromising or surrendering to the West" at least three times in a manner similar to the "Hundred Regiments Offensive"?

[Media Coverage]

On January 13, Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, stated on social media that the so-called "German model" for resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict is based solely on the illusion of "Russia's disintegration."

On January 14, Iranian and diplomatic officials from Britain, France, and Germany held a new round of dialogue in Geneva, Switzerland, on the 13th. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, in an interview with Iranian media, said that the main content of the dialogue was to discuss how to resume Iran nuclear negotiations.

On January 14, Russia is ready to study the ideas proposed by the incoming US President Trump on ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict after he takes office on January 20.

【Discussion Summary】

● The "fierce internal struggle" in the US has not weakened but has escalated again, with "every blow striking to the bone"

As the elected US President Trump is about to take office, subsequent developments in the international situation increasingly indicate the emergence of an international version of the "Warring States" period. If Trump's "crazy plan" is ultimately implemented and the US officially embarks on a global strategic retraction process under the "advancing as a means of retreating" model, then, amidst the "collapse of the international order" and the onset of a global "Warring States" period, a "coalition and counter-coalition" movement on a global scale may be about to unfold, based on a model similar to the "Qin-Qi model" of the mid-Warring States period in ancient China, namely the "Sino-US model" of "two strong powers standing together."

We have noticed that after South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl was arrested, he gave a speech, and his approval rating rose instead of falling. Our previous assessment that if Biden and the "Bidens" and Trump and the "Trumps" could not reach an agreement before January 20, South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl might face trial has been further validated. Obviously, Biden and the "Bidens" have first, domestically, adopted a stance of being "ready to flip the table" towards Trump and the "Trumps."

Furthermore, another indication of the escalation of the "fierce internal struggle" in the US is reflected in the latest development where the Biden administration has decided to remove Cuba from the list of "state sponsors of terrorism." This is clearly unfavorable for the incoming Trump administration to pursue the so-called "US unification of the Americas" process. In other words, for Trump to smoothly "unify the Americas," he cannot bypass Cuba, which serves as a "political anti-American center." Removing Cuba from the list of "state sponsors of terrorism" undermines Trump's efforts to "unify the Americas." If the Trump administration plans to circumvent this "pitfall" after taking office and once again places Cuba back on the list, such a reversal would raise questions about the credibility of the Trump administration.

It is worth mentioning that observing the rumor that "Puff. Diddy's" mansion was destroyed by the California wildfires, along with the reality that the homes of many individuals in the so-called "US entertainment industry," deeply entangled in many unsavory scandals in US and even Western politics, were destroyed by the wildfires, if subsequent reports emerge of "certain artists or key witnesses involved in important cases dying in the fires," it would only indicate that the "fierce internal struggle" in the US has not weakened but has escalated again, with "every blow striking to the bone."

As January 20 approaches, the Biden administration, following the sequence of "first the Middle East, then Ukraine, and finally the Western Pacific," has "planted explosives" in the subsequent developments of regional situations, represented by the impeachment case of South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl, Ukraine launching its largest attack on targets deep within Russian territory, and the possibility of the US military directly conducting military strikes against Iran. This suggests that the international situation may spiral out of control due to the intense internal strife in the US. The international community must be highly vigilant.

●In the process of forming alliances and strategic partnerships, the prerequisite for suppressing opponents, gaining advantages, and maintaining and accumulating these advantages until final victory is to stabilize oneself and continuously develop and strengthen oneself.

Forming alliances and strategic partnerships was a diplomatic strategy that emerged in the mid-Warring States period, and also a diplomatic strategy arising under the "Qin-Qi model," a situation where two powerful states coexisted. It was accompanied by the continuous annexation of smaller states and was a direct competition of comprehensive strength among all parties, especially the states of Qin and Qi. Each initiation of forming alliances and strategic partnerships required the consumption of considerable strategic resources.

According to the above statement, Cuba is clearly also one of the "allied countries" or a target of being "allied," potentially seeking to enjoy the benefits and conveniences of being an "allied country" like Russia and Iran, or it may be courted separately by China and the United States. Taking the United States as an example, in Trump's plan, the US would use Cuba as a negative example to form alliances with other American countries, aiming to achieve the strategic intention of "unifying the Americas." However, judging from the Biden administration's removal of Cuba from the list of "state sponsors of terrorism" just before leaving office, it seems that the US is already starting to consume its already limited strategic resources before the formation of alliances and strategic partnerships has even begun.

We have noticed news reports about Saudi Arabia's desire to utilize nuclear energy to diversify its energy mix.

As early as 2018, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated that if regional competitor Iran developed nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia would do the same. In our view, at least since 2017, whether Saudi Arabia was preparing to engage in nuclear activities or seek nuclear weapons, its cooperation partner has been China. It is worth mentioning that Gulf Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia, have already intervened in the subsequent development of the situation in Syria. That is to say, although China has no intention of directly intervening in the subsequent development of the situation in Syria so far, it does not mean that China has no influence on it.

In 2024, China embarked on a large-scale "military expansion" mode. Trump began hyping topics such as annexing Canada, Greenland, and Panama (although Trump was internally cowardly) and the strategic retraction of the United States after the Zhuhai Airshow and China's consecutive unveiling of two "sixth-generation fighter jets," focusing on "psychological warfare"! Entering 2025, China has also embarked on a large-scale "mineral exposure" mode. This means that if the international situation further deteriorates and causes the global economy to accelerate further into the "chaotic" deep waters, we have the ability to initiate a "minimum economic internal circulation."

For China, the best way to counter the US's strategic attempt to compete with China through forming alliances and strategic partnerships is to adopt a strategy of "befriending distant states while attacking nearby ones." Of course, "befriending distant states while attacking nearby ones" refers to our adoption of similar alliance-forming and strategic partnership means to compete with the US, with a focus on certain aspects during the process. Its essence lies in first doing well ourselves. That is to say, in the process of forming alliances and strategic partnerships, if we want to suppress opponents, gain advantages, and maintain and accumulate these advantages until final victory, the prerequisite is to stabilize ourselves and continuously develop and strengthen ourselves.

●Since 2015, the international community has likely prevented "Russia from compromising or surrendering to the West" at least three times in a manner akin to the "Hundred Regiments Offensive."

It's worth mentioning that on December 26, 2024, 24 hours before China unveiled two sixth-generation fighter jets consecutively, there were rumors that a mysterious high-level Russian aircraft flew to the United States.

Although we don't know whether this mysterious aircraft carried high-ranking Russian officials or officials of what level, this situation reminds us of the historical period in July 2015 when Russia betrayed Iran by forcing it to sign the Iran nuclear deal as a compromise to the West, after which China decisively adjusted its related economic and financial policies. This is what we often refer to as "the heat of July, the unending August, and the clothing of September."

A similar situation occurred on February 8, 2018, when a formed unit of the Russian military was annihilated in Syria, and Russia failed to respond effectively at the first and second opportunities. China sensed that Russia was showing a tendency to compromise and surrender rapidly and to a great extent. Therefore, China once again decisively made strategic adjustments and announced on February 9 that "the RMB-denominated crude oil futures would be officially launched on March 26" (the day before, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a secret visit to China), thus firing the first shot against Western financial hegemony.

If subsequent developments in the international situation prove that the mysterious high-level Russian aircraft flying to the United States is related to Russia's renewed intense vacillation on the issue of reconciling and compromising with the West after the Assad regime in Syria was overturned, then China's consecutive unveiling of two sixth-generation fighter jets on December 26, 2024, appears to be highly targeted.

The compromising nature of Russia's Putin regime, or rather, its consistent "incomplete compromise and half-hearted resistance," reminds us of the Kuomintang government led by Chiang Kai-shek during the Anti-Japanese War. Interestingly, the famous "Hundred Regiments Offensive" in 1940 achieved a tremendous strategic accomplishment by resolutely curbing the Kuomintang government's intense vacillation towards surrendering and compromising with Japan at that time.

Therefore, in a sense, since 2015, the international community has likely prevented "Russia from compromising or surrendering to the West" at least three times in a manner akin to the "Hundred Regiments Offensive." And in this process, just like the Anti-Japanese War, where Chairman Mao said "there is no need to rush," valuable strategic development time has been gained, which is like "crossing the river with people."

As the situation develops today, the Russia-Ukraine war has broken out and is still ongoing. The United States, bogged down in a "three-front war," has no choice but to play strategic retraction and form alliances in the global version of the "subsequent development of the Syrian situation," showing clear signs of a significant decline in its control over the world, especially its financial hegemony, and the erosion of its hegemony. This not only reflects that Russia and Iran, enemies of the United States, have already taken on the role of "allied countries" and eagerly enjoy the benefits and conveniences of being "allied countries," but is also embodied in some of the United States' core allies, such as Britain and Japan. The key point is that whether the United States plays strategic retraction or forms alliances, it needs time.

●Even so, in the economic version of "alliance and counter-alliance," the US may already be "at a disadvantage before it even begins."

We have noticed news reports where Medvedev, Russia's second-highest political figure, denied the possibility of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict through a "German model."

Clearly, even if the West unanimously splits Ukraine in two, Russia still has demands, namely that "the other half of Ukraine" cannot join NATO. This is the asking price, the asking price of an "allied country." The West may find this difficult to accept. But in any case, the West, and the US in particular, will have to pay a higher price. At the very least, the US's current Middle East policy has clearly shown that it will hinder the US's efforts to woo the EU and Russia.

Similar to Russia's "constantly shifting allegiances," Japan is also like this. Japan has openly engaged with China, the US's greatest enemy, without giving any thought to the stability of the US's "Western Pacific Security Framework" (one of the two pillars of the US's global strategy, the other being NATO). Isn't this also Japan bargaining with the US from the perspective of an "allied country"?

There is news that NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang will soon visit China. In a sense, does this mean that there are entities within the US with whom we can engage in alliance and counter-alliance? The answer is probably yes. In our view, these include US companies, key links in the US industrial chain, and even ordinary American citizens.

In Huang's view, China is where many emerging industries are thriving, and with China's significant breakthroughs in the chip industry, it will soon form its own system and expand outward in a continuous cycle of upgrading. That is to say, the scope of the Chinese market will far exceed China's borders. If one does not join, one is doomed. Huang has clearly "voted with his feet" (actions speak louder than words).

Furthermore, we have also noticed the announcement issued by China's Ministry of Commerce on the 14th. The announcement stated that seven US entities were added to the "Unreliable Entities List." The spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce said on the same day that these seven companies had seriously harmed China's sovereignty, security, and development interests, and China would hold them accountable for their illegal actions in accordance with the law.

In our view, the reason for this punishment is related to "arms sales to Taiwan," and the punishment is quite severe. It cannot be ruled out that the punishment may develop into "long-arm jurisdiction" based on the principle of "what's good for the goose is good for the gander." If China really enforces "long-arm jurisdiction," NVIDIA will be doomed if it does not sever ties with these sanctioned US military companies. This is probably the main reason why Huang is visiting China before the Chinese Lunar New Year, playing a game of "being physically present but mentally elsewhere."

Judging from Huang's upcoming visit to China, the primary purpose of this countermeasure is to force these US companies that are preparing to or already operating in China and want to do business and make money to first sever ties with these sanctioned military companies, or be prepared to do so, otherwise they will face the consequences! That is to say, it officially forces US companies to start the "taking sides" process. Including European and Japanese companies, they must first "take sides" on issues such as "Taiwan independence." This can be seen as alliance and counter-alliance at the economic level. Even so, the US may already be in an awkward position of "being at a disadvantage before it even begins."

[Related Topics]

Issue 7718 - Based on the possibility of the US "strategic retraction" becoming a "real act," a brief discussion on possible means for the US to further control the Americas (2025-01-12)
Issue 7721 - Revisiting the "turning point year" of 2015 in light of the remarks made by the outgoing US Deputy Secretary of Defense: "Don't provoke China and cause conflicts for no reason" (2025-01-13)
Issue 7725 - Will the fate of the US be like that of the State of Qi during China's Spring and Autumn and Warring States periods, which was enthusiastic about "alliance" but surrendered without a fight at the end of the Warring States period? (2025-01-14)

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

原文作者公众号：

广州市贯日翻译服务有限公司为东方时评-衍射传媒/衍射咨询提供翻译支持

翻译请联系http://www.en-ch.com/chcontact.htm

手机微信13924166640

广州市越秀区环市东路世界贸易中心大厦南塔24楼 020-86266990