2025年1月11日，星期六，第1155期

在中国官方公布鄂尔多斯盆地泾川地区取得铀矿找矿重大突破的背后，美国“战略收缩”的强烈信号触动了谁的小心思？

【媒体报道】

1月10日，在鄂尔多斯盆地泾川地区发现特大型铀矿，这将形成我国找铀新局面，大幅增加铀资源量，提升铀资源安全保障程度。

【讨论纪要】

●会出现一个基于异构概念的“美洲合众国”吗？

今天我们就特朗普“相关威胁”的一些细节做一些补充和扩展。

在我们的观察与评估中，在特朗普有关“吞并”加拿大、格陵兰岛和巴拿马运河的疯“狂计划中”，美国兼并加拿大的可能性恐怕最大。除了加拿大对美国在边境不设防（美国和其飞地阿拉斯加之间就隔着加拿大，如果美国吞并加拿大，美国的领土就连成一片），美军可以十分轻松占领加拿大外，加拿大和美国在经济结构上“相克”也是主要原因之一。且随着美国工业空心化不可逆转得越来越严重，美国正变得和俄罗斯、加拿大一样，成为主要出口农产品、矿产和化石能源的“农业国”。在美国看来，与其说留下一个强有力的竞争对手，不如将其“吞并”。更何况加拿大地广人稀（只有4000万人），自然资源储备丰厚。

此外，基于美国“战略收缩”或可能“假戏真唱”，美国在进一步控制美洲的过程中可能会采取与应对加拿大完全不同的办法。在我们看来，美国不会像“吞并”加拿大那样“吞并”墨西哥，只会强化对墨西哥的经济、政治控制（墨西哥已经是美国的经济殖民地，所以是在这个基础上，在经济和政治上进一步对墨西哥进行控制），也就是通过更加残酷的殖民统治控制墨西哥，并继续在美墨边境修建更完善的隔离系统，阻止墨西哥移民越过边境进入美国。

在“吞并”加拿大，进一步殖民墨西哥的基础上，控制巴拿马运河就显得容易很多。至于南美洲，美国完全可以通过寻找“代理人”的方式强化控制，比如，阿根廷。阿根廷是南美国家中的一个奇葩，曾经是一个经济非常发达的国家，而不像今天这般落魄，以至于“去本国货币化”对阿根廷而言已经成为大概率要发生的事情。值得一提的是，与美墨边境的隔离系统类似，墨西哥将成为美国隔离南美移民的“隔离墙”。

所以说，此前我们提出的，在美国战略收缩、退至美洲大陆的可能背景下，美利坚合众国或可能改名为“美洲合众国”首先是一种异构的虚拟概念，其次更是一种戏谑的调侃，而并非美国要吞并或占领整个美洲大陆，真的成立一个叫“美洲合众国”的国家。

●特朗普口中“吞并”格陵兰岛的套路与当年美国从哥伦比亚强行分离巴拿马的完全一样

我们注意到，1月10日，有关“格陵兰自治政府总理表示，格陵兰不想属于美国或丹麦，而是想要独立”的新闻报道。

尽管依据丹麦和美国1951年签订的一项防务条约，美国在格陵兰岛图勒空军基地有驻军（位于格陵兰岛西北海岸，距北极圈以北750英里（1210 公里）。距北极947英里（1524公里）。特朗普在其首个总统任期内正式批准成立太空军，图勒空军基地于2023年更名为皮图菲克太空基地，为美国国防部地理位置最北的设施，部署的部队包括第12太空预警中队），但在我们看来，美国完全可以用钱搞定格陵兰岛，因为格陵兰岛的常住人口非常稀少，只有5万余人，而陵兰岛自治议会的议员也只有30人左右。美国只要收买这些议员，辅助必要的军事镇压手段即可，何况相比于做丹麦人，也许岛上的居民更愿意做美国人。

或许丹麦意识到了“胳膊拧不过大腿”（欧盟还因俄罗斯有求于美国，再加上美国是“北约司令”，所以，就算丹麦告到欧盟，告到北约也是惘然），于是便传出了丹麦愿意和特朗普“私下”谈格陵兰岛问题的消息以及格陵兰自治政府总理表示，格陵兰不想属于美国或丹麦，而是想要独立的消息。值得一提的是，特朗普口中“吞并”格陵兰岛的套路与当年美国从哥伦比亚强行分离巴拿马的完全一样。都是显策动其独立，脱离原来的国家，然而再伺机控制。

讨论到这里，大家是不是觉得特朗普口中的“疯狂计划”有模有样了？但我们仍要强调，特朗普的“疯狂计划”看似在吹嘘美国谋求战略扩张的话题，实则在炒作美国战略收缩的话题，且将这一强烈信号主要朝向欧盟和俄罗斯进行“定向”广播。

美国“战略收缩”之强烈信号从“灵魂深处”触动了俄罗斯“阿富汗政策小九九”的小心思

在继续展开讨论前，再来看一则新闻报道。

日前，自然资源部中国地质调查局联合中国石油长庆油田分公司、中国核工业地质局等单位，在鄂尔多斯盆地泾川地区取得铀矿找矿重大突破，资源储量规模达特大型。

众所周知，我国一向在能源获取问题上采取“多条路一起走”的办法，核能就是其中之一。

有消息称，中国2025年将建全球首个钍基熔盐反应堆核电站，2029年满功率运行。此外，中国钍储量28.6万吨，足够未来两万年需求。在我们看来，钍基熔盐反应堆是可控核聚变反应堆商用前的终极方案。

相比于储量丰富的钍，中国的铀储量则要贫瘠得多，至少从以前官方公布的数据来看是这样的。而在此前，基于俄罗斯二号政治人物梅德韦杰夫访华这一问题基础上，我们曾讨论过俄罗斯将哈萨克斯坦某大型铀矿股份转让给中国的话题。下面不妨让我们共同回顾一下2024年12月26日的部分讨论内容，对大家更好理解上述新闻报道会有所帮助：

所谓“新想法”，在我们看来：

第一，“中吉乌铁路”项目即将动工开建，尽管哈萨克斯坦对此心中有所不满（目前中欧班列主要经过哈萨克斯坦，所以哈萨克斯坦认为，“中吉乌铁路”项目可能会分流运输，使哈萨克斯坦利益受损），但总体上仍服从于这一局面。由于“中吉乌铁路”开工建设一定经过了俄罗斯的默许，在客观上，俄罗斯与哈萨克斯坦之间的关系或会有所拉近。至于靠多近，另当别论，但有一点可以肯定，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦现在都离不开中国；

第二，如果说，俄方就“蒙古问题”作为“愿意共同解决历史遗留问题”之切入点，诚意尚可，但仍显务虚的话。那么在相对务实的层面，我们注意到，据英国媒体报道，在中、俄、哈三方协商下，俄罗斯原子能公司旗下的铀一集团已将其在哈萨克斯坦扎列奇诺耶铀矿的49%股份，转交给了中国核铀资源开发公司的消息出现。当然，这一消息尚待有关方的官方进一步确认；

第三，如果这一消息被证实无误，在我们看来，基于“在商言商”的层面，也算是俄方诚意在务实方面的具体表现。相应的，我们对俄罗斯的战略策应会比之以往更加有力一些（仍达不到实质性战略策应的程度）；

第四，所谓“在商言商”的意思在于，如果俄罗斯希望我们提供更有力一些的战略策应，在诸如“中俄实质性联手稳定中亚”“俄罗斯实质性放弃阿富汗政策‘小九九’”等话题得出“最终结论”之时机仍不成熟的背景下，就需要用真金白银的利益进行交换。基于此，我们认为，这一传闻的可行性是较高的；

第五，尽管目前诸如“中俄实质性联手稳定中亚”“俄罗斯实质性放弃阿富汗政策‘小九九’”等话题得出“最终结论”之时机仍不成熟，但中亚稳定问题似乎正在以另外一种形式慢慢形成，那就是中、俄、哈三方基于越来越多的共同利益交集，尤其是，对我们来说是资产，对俄罗斯来说是“后腰”的安全，对哈萨克斯坦来说是得到中俄提供的安全保障（对哈萨克斯坦来说，稳定最重要。而想要实现稳定，唯一途径就是依靠中俄，依靠上合），共同促使中亚地区稳定。所以，这一变化虽然距离质变层面还有距离，但可以看作量变层面的一种重大跃进；

第六，综上五点，或是哈萨克斯坦愿意向塞尔维亚部署部队的主要原因之一。值得注意的是，有媒体报道，本次哈萨克斯坦向塞尔维亚派遣特种部队，是在塞尔维亚向上合请求下，基于“反恐”进行的。值得一提的是，2001年6月15日成立的上合，哈萨克斯坦是创始成员国之一。如果俄罗斯最终选择与中国实质性联手，那么上合就会被有效“重启”，一旦如此，中俄共同组成“党小组核心”（类似于，党组书记），包括哈萨克斯坦在内的创始成员国将成为“党小组核心成员”（类似于，党组成员）。

结合上述回顾大家不难看出，围绕哈萨克斯坦扎列奇诺耶铀矿的股份转让问题，表面看是经济问题，实际上是政治问题，且直接涉及俄罗斯是否愿意彻底放弃“阿富汗政策小九九”，是否愿意与中国实质性联手。

在我们看来，在美国“战略收缩”之强烈信号的刺激下，欧盟或会更紧地抱住美国的大腿，而俄罗斯也很可能因此被牵动，从而使得中俄关系发生变化。显然，在我国公布鄂尔多斯盆地泾川地区取得铀矿找矿重大突破，资源储量规模达特大型的背后，或是哈萨克斯坦铀矿合作项目发生了“新变化”，且变化的方向是消极的。看样子，美国“战略收缩”之强烈信号从“灵魂深处”触动了俄罗斯“阿富汗政策小九九”的小心思。

此外，需要补充的是，在美国公开释放强烈战略收缩之信号，俄罗斯准备认怂，伊朗已经认怂的背景下，这股“歪风”的负面影响或会在中东地区以及中国周边地区有所显性化，比如，巴基斯坦、柬埔寨、缅甸、泰国、日本等。当然，日本货因为随时可能成为拜登政府在2025年1月20日之前，甚至之后，美国内部“恶斗”不断升级的“炮灰”，所以想法上和欧、俄略有不同，比如，比之安倍晋三时期，岸田文雄时期执行更加明显且强烈的“最后一次战略投机”策略，这当然是美国玩这种战略收缩的副作用之一。

在应对乌克兰问题的过程中，对俄罗斯尽管从对外政策协调的方面，客观上，特朗普的“胡萝卜”为主与拜登的“大棒”为主颇像是在演双簧，但是，如果从美国内部“恶斗”不断的角度去观察，拜登所做的显然是在“自行其是”。某种意义上说，拜登和“拜登们”随着2025年1月20日的日益临近，争摆出一副不惜在中东、乌克兰和西太三个战略方向“玩火”的讹诈姿态。随时准备狗急跳墙、战略冒险。但在我们看来，无论美国怎么折腾，就算是玩“前一秒战略冒险，后一秒妥协认怂”的“把戏”，其作为传统意义上的美国，最长存在时间也不过是7年而已（如果不可逆的玩战略冒险，也许只要2年或更短）。

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声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Saturday, January 11, 202, Issue No. 1155

Behind China's official announcement of a significant breakthrough in uranium exploration in the Jingchuan area of the Ordos Basin, the strong signal of a potential "strategic retraction" by the United States has stirred up whose thoughts?

[Media Coverage]

A super-large uranium deposit was discovered in the Jingchuan area of the Ordos basin on January 10, which will form a new situation for uranium exploration in China, greatly increasing the amount of uranium resources and improving the security of uranium resources.

【Discussion Summary】

● Will there be a "United States of America" based on a heterogeneous concept?

Today we're going to add some details about Trump's "related threats."

In our observations and assessments, the US annexation of Canada is perhaps the most likely in Trump's crazy "mad plan" to "annex" Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal. Apart from Canada's lack of border defense against the United States (Canada is separated from the United States and its enclave of Alaska), If the United States annexed Canada, the United States territorial contiguity), the United States can be very easy to occupy Canada, Canada and the United States in the economic structure of the "cross" is one of the main reasons. And as U.S. industrial hollowing out becomes more irreversible, the U.S, like Russia and Canada, is becoming an "agricultural nation" that exports agricultural products, minerals and fossil energy. In America's view, rather than leaving a strong rival, it is better to "annex." Not to mention Canada's small population (only 40 million people), rich reserves of natural resources.

Moreover, based on US "strategic contraction," or possibly "playing along but singing for real," the US might take a completely different approach to further control of the Americas than it would to Canada. In our view, the United States will not "annex" Mexico as it did Canada, but will only strengthen its economic and political control over Mexico (Mexico is already an economic colony of the United States, On this basis, therefore, Mexico was further controlled economically and politically (by more brutal colonial rule) and a better separation system along the U.S.-Mexico border was continued to prevent Mexican immigrants from crossing the border into the United States.

On the basis of the "annexation" of Canada and the further colonization of Mexico, it would be much easier to control the Panama Canal. As for South America, the United States could emphasize its control by looking for "agents," such as Argentina. Argentina, a strange South American country, was once a very developed economy, not as depressed as it is today, so much so that "de-monetization" has become a probable occurrence for Argentina. It is worth mentioning that, similar to the quarantine system at the US-Mexico border, Mexico would become a "wall" for the US to isolate South American migrants.

So, what we have proposed before, in the possible context of the strategic withdrawal of the United States to the mainland of America, The United States of America, or possibly the United States of the Americas, is first and foremost a fictitious virtual concept, and secondly a playful joke, not because the United States intends to annex or occupy the entire American continent and actually form a country called the United States.

● Trump's alleged "annexation" of Greenland is exactly the same pattern as the United States' forced secession of Panama from Colombia.

We noted news reports on 10 January that "the Prime Minister of Greenland's self-governing government said that Greenland does not want to belong to the United States or Denmark, but wants independence."

Despite a 1951 Danish-American defence treaty, the United States maintains a garrison at Thule Air Force Base in Greenland, on Beihai's northwest coast, 750 miles (1,210 kilometers) north of the Arctic Circle. It is 947 miles (1,524 km) from the North Pole. Trump formally approved the creation of the Space Force during his first term as president, and Teller Air Force Base was renamed Pitufix Space Base in 2023, the northernmost facility of the US Department of Defense. The troops deployed include the 12th Space Early Warning Squadron, but in our view, the United States could afford to pay for Greenland, which has a very sparse permanent population of just over 50,000 and a self-governing Parliament of about 30 members. The United States could simply buy these lawmakers to supplement the necessary military repression, especially since perhaps the island's inhabitants would rather be American than Danish.

Perhaps Denmark realizes that one cannot fight against overwhelming force (the EU is also dependent on Russia's interest in the US, which is the "commander in chief of NATO"), So even if Denmark went to the EU, it went to NATO, and so there was news that Denmark was willing to talk to Trump "privately" about Greenland and that the Prime Minister of Greenland's autonomous government said that Greenland did not want to belong to the United States or Denmark, but wanted independence. It is worth noting that Trump's alleged "annexation" of Greenland is exactly the same pattern as that used when the United States forcibly separated Panama from Colombia. Both explicitly advocated independence from the original state, but then sought control.

Having talked about it, do you think what Trump called the "crazy plan" looks like? However, we would like to stress that Trump's "crazy plan" appears to trumpet the US's pursuit of strategic expansion, but instead is hyping up the topic of US strategic contraction, and broadcasting this strong signal mainly to the EU and Russia.

● Strong signals of U.S. "strategic contraction" have touched Russia's "little mind" about Afghanistan policy "from the depths of its soul."

Before proceeding further, I would like to take another news report.

A few days ago, the China Geological Survey Bureau of the Ministry of Natural Resources, PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Company, China Bureau of Nuclear Industry Geology and other units, in the Ordos Basin Jingchuan area to achieve a major breakthrough in uranium prospecting, resource reserves of large scale.

As we all know, China has always adopted a "many paths together" approach to energy access, and nuclear energy is one of them.

It is reported that China will build the world's first thorium-based molten salt reactor nuclear power plant in 2025, and it will be fully operational in 2029. In addition, China's thorium reserves are 286 thousand tons, enough for the next 20,000 years. In our view, thorium-based molten salt reactor is the ultimate solution before commercial operation.

China's uranium reserves are far less abundant than the abundant thorium reserves, at least according to previous official data. Earlier, on the basis of the visit of Russia's second-ranking politician, Dmitry Medvedev, to China, we discussed Russia's transfer of a stake in a large uranium mine in Kazakhstan to China. Here's a look back at some of the discussions on December 26, 2024 to help you better understand the above news reports:

The so-called "new ideas," in our view:

First, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway project is about to begin, despite Kazakhstan's frustration (at present, the main route of the China Europe Railway passes through Kazakhstan). Kazakhstan therefore believed that the "China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway" project might divert transport to the detriment of its interests, but remained generally subordinate to the situation. Since the construction of the "China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway" must have been started with Russia's tacit approval, objectively, relations between Russia and Kazakhstan may be closer. How close it is another matter, but one thing is certain: both Russia and Kazakhstan cannot now live without China.

Second，If Russia's intention to use the "Mongolia problem" as an entry point for its "willingness to jointly solve the legacy of history" is good, but it is still very reckless. On the practical level, we have noted that, according to the British media coverage, under the tripartite consultation between China, Russia and Kazakhstan, Russia's Atomic Energy Corporation's Uranium One Group has transferred its 49 per cent stake in the Zarechinskoye uranium mine in Kazakhstan to the China Nuclear Uranium Resources Development Corporation, it has emerged. Of course, this information has yet to be confirmed officially by the parties concerned;

Third, if this information is confirmed, it would, in our view, be a concrete expression of the Russian side's sincerity in terms of pragmatism on the basis of "negotiating." As a result, our strategic response to Russia will be more robust than ever before (still below the level of a substantive strategic response);

Fourth, what the phrase " When talking about business, stick to business." means is that if Russia wants us to provide a more robust strategic response, in areas such as "China and Russia substantially join forces to stabilize Central Asia" and "Russia substantially abandons its Afghanistan policy ’calculations and maneuvers '” and so on the topic "the final conclusion" the opportunity is still not mature under the background, needs to carry on the exchange with the real money Baiyin's benefit. For this reason, we believe that the plausibility of this rumor is high;

Fifth, although the current such as "China and Russia to substantially join forces to stabilize Central Asia," "Russia to substantially abandon the Afghan policy; The time for "final conclusions" on topics such as "Little Nine" is still immature, but the issue of stability in Central Asia seems to be slowly taking shape in another form. That is, China, Russia, and Kazakhstan are intertwined on the basis of increasing common interests - in particular, assets for us, security for Russia's "backside," and security guarantees for Kazakhstan (for Kazakhstan, stability is paramount). The only way to achieve stability is to rely on China and Russia and the SCO to jointly promote stability in Central Asia. Therefore, although this change is still far from the qualitative dimension, it can be seen as a major leap forward at the quantitative dimension;

Sixthly, in summary, the above five points may be one of the main reasons why Kazakhstan is willing to deploy troops to Serbia. It is worth noting that some media coverage, the Kazakhstan sent special forces to Serbia, Serbia in the joint request, based on "counter-terrorism." It is worth mentioning that Kazakhstan was one of the founding members of the SCO, which was established on 15 June 2001. If Russia ultimately chooses to substantially join forces with China, the SCO will be effectively "restarted," Once this happens, China and Russia together form the "core of the party group" (similar to, say, party secretary), and the founding members, including Kazakhstan, will become "core members of the party groups" (similar as, party membership).

In the light of the above review, it is not difficult to see that the issue surrounding the transfer of shares in the Zarechinskoye uranium mine in Kazakhstan, What appears to be an economic issue is, in fact, a political one, and directly involves Russia's willingness to completely abandon its "calculations and maneuvers in Afghanistan policy" and to substantially join forces with China.

In our view, the European Union, spurred by the strong signs of "strategic contraction" in America, may embrace the United States more closely, and Russia may be affected by this, thus changing the Sino-Russian relations. Obviously, in China announced that the Ordos basin Jingchuan area has made a major breakthrough in uranium exploration, resources reserves reached a large scale behind, or Kazakhstan uranium project has taken place in the "new changes," and the direction of change is negative. It appears that a strong signal of U.S. "strategic contraction" has touched Russia's "calculations and maneuvers in Afghanistan policy" about Afghanistan policy "from the depths of its soul."

In addition, it should be added that Russia is ready to concede, after publicly sending a strong signal of strategic contraction in America, Against the backdrop of Iran's acknowledgement, the negative impact of this "skewed wind" may be felt in the Middle East and around China, such as Pakistan, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand and Japan. Of course, Japanese goods could at any time become the "cannon fodder" of the Biden administration's escalating fighting within the United States before and even after January 20, 2025. So the idea is slightly different from Europe and Russia, for example, Kishida Fumio than Shinzo Abe, the implementation of the "last strategic speculation," which is certainly one of the side effects of the United States to play this strategic contraction.

In dealing with the Ukraine problem, despite the aspects of foreign policy coordination with Russia, Objectively, Trump's "carrot" and Biden's "big stick" are a bit of a double play, but if you look at the constant fight within the United States, what Biden is doing is clearly "acting on his own will." In a sense, as January 20, 2025 approaches, Biden and the "Bidens" are vying for a blackmail gesture that would risk "playing with fire" in three strategic directions: the Middle East, Ukraine, and Western Asia. Always be prepared for a dog jumping a wall or a strategic adventure. But it seems to us that whatever America does, it's a game.“The first second of strategic adventures, The "second-second compromise" trick means that the maximum length of American existence in the traditional sense is only seven years (perhaps two years or less if strategic adventures are irrevocably played).

[Related Topics]

7698 - U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's final foreign trip during his term, or a climate in which "America is forced to make deals with China" (2025 - 1-6)
Issue 7709 - Trump says he won't rule out using military force to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal. What is the signal?（2025-1-8）

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