https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R2sZufFqvPEOeYZI-z0QfQ
东方点评，叙利亚过渡政府任命“东突”分子，中方严重关切 【媒体报道】 1月8日，中国常驻联合国代表团网站发布傅聪大使在安理会叙利亚问题公开会上的发言……第二，无论叙利亚国内局势如何发展，对恐怖主义“零容忍”的底线不能改变。安理会近期就叙局势发表主席新闻谈话，明确各国应打击安理会列名的所有恐怖组织，拒绝为恐怖分子提供庇护。据报道，叙利亚军队近日向多名外国恐怖作战分子授予高级职位，其中包括安理会列名的恐怖组织“突厥伊斯兰党”也就是“东伊运”的头目，中方对此表示严重关切。我们呼吁叙利亚履行反恐义务，防止任何恐怖势力利用叙领土威胁别国安全…… 【讨论纪要】 ●中国的影响力能够被有所遏制，总有一些国家对此喜闻乐见 我们注意到，1月8日，中国常驻联合国代表团网站发布傅聪大使在安理会叙利亚问题公开会上的发言内容，其中提到“叙利亚军队近日向多名外国恐怖作战分子授予高级职位，其中包括安理会列名的恐怖组织‘突厥伊斯兰党’也就是‘东伊运’的头目”一事，中方对此表示严重关切，并呼吁叙利亚履行反恐义务，防止任何恐怖势力利用叙领土威胁别国安全。
这条新闻报道，让我们联想到了阿富汗过渡政府（阿富汗塔利班政权）。 2021年9月9日，阿富汗塔利班驻多哈政治办事处发言人沙欣接受采访时表示，很多“东突厥斯坦伊斯兰运动”（简称“东伊运”）成员目前已经离开了阿富汗，剩余成员中的任何人将来都不可能留在阿富汗境内。阿塔不允许“东伊运”等组织在阿富汗有任何训练场、资金募集机构和士兵招募机构。不过，对于是否会把“东伊运”成员引渡到中国的问题，沙欣当日没有明确回应。 对此，中国外交部发言人赵立坚在10日的例行记者会上指出，“东伊运”是被联合国安理会列明的国际恐怖组织，对中国国家安全和领土完整构成直接威胁，是影响地区安全稳定的一大祸害，也是寄生在阿富汗肌体上的一颗毒瘤。坚决反对、全力遏制、重拳打击、彻底消灭“东伊运”，是包括阿富汗在内的国际社会的共同责任。赵立坚表示，中方多次就“东伊运”问题向阿富汗塔利班方面表明严重关切，阿塔对此是重视的，也是有郑重承诺的。我们希望阿塔言出必行，同“东伊运”等恐怖组织彻底切割，在境内采取有效措施予以坚决打击。同时希望阿塔加强与邻国的协调合作，避免产生跨境外溢效应，让阿富汗不再成为恐怖势力的孳生地、庇护所和扩散源。 在我们看来，这起事件，大概率由美国、欧盟主导，但其背后或也有俄罗斯、印度，伊朗等国家的影子。中国的影响力能够被有所遏制是这些国家所喜闻乐见的。 “9.11事件”后，美国小布什政府在俄罗斯普京政府的配合下，军事“蛙跳”进入阿富汗，这让很多中国军事、战略专家感到错愕。阿富汗与中国接壤，与西太方向相比，将其称作“中国的后背”毫不为过。阿富汗也紧邻中亚地区，中亚地区从来被俄罗斯看作自己的“腹地”。即便如此，俄方仍为美军“蛙跳”进入阿富汗大开方便之门，这就涉及著名的俄罗斯“阿富汗政策小九九”。 俄罗斯“阿富汗政策小九九”有两个侧面，其一，借中国之力遏制西方的影响力；其二，借西方之力遏制中国的影响力。俄罗斯的这一小心思虽然冠以“阿富汗”三个字，但实际上是作用于世界范畴的，且至今仍然是俄罗斯全球战略的核心内容之一，堪称俄罗斯“真正的红线”，至少到目前为止，俄罗斯仍死抱着“阿富汗政策小九九”不放。值得一提的是，2021年8月，美军撤离阿富汗的主要动机之一，也是瞄准这一点。美国对俄罗斯提出通过俄方提供“莫斯科通道”，进而“远程”维持阿富汗局面的要求，并对俄罗斯施展一系列威、逼、利、诱，其中围绕乌克兰问题对俄罗斯施加极限战略施压是典型代表。结果，由于俄罗斯恐惧于被中国送上“被西方实质性消化的快车道”而最终未敢应允（如果俄罗斯答应美国的请求，性质上等同于中俄战略互信被实质性瓦解，西方苦心钻营多年的“南亚破局”进程旋即宣告获得成功）。 而随后，也就是在2022年2月24日爆发的俄乌战争，与此密切相关（俄乌战争的爆发，也有美国军工复合体急于发战争财的所谓“经济意图”。“经济意图”在极端化后，将会以“政治手段”加以呈现。当“政治手段”最终也无法有效解决问题的时候，将最终演变为战争）。某种意义上说，是西方欲以阿富汗问题为切入点瓦解中俄战略互信之险恶用心，在乌克兰问题上“玩脱了稿”。直到目前，2025年1月10日，已经进行了将近三年的俄乌战争距离结束仍遥遥无期。 ●如果不打算与“东伊运”等恐怖组织彻底切割，叙临时政府想获得联合国，乃至国际社会正式承认恐无可能 我们愿再次重申，“东伊运”是被联合国安理会列明的国际恐怖组织，对中国国家安全和领土完整构成直接威胁，是影响地区安全稳定的一大祸害，也是寄生在阿富汗肌体上的一颗毒瘤。坚决反对、全力遏制、重拳打击、彻底消灭“东伊运”，是包括阿富汗在内的国际社会的共同责任。 如果叙利亚临时政府不打算与“东伊运”等恐怖组织彻底切割，让叙利亚再次成为恐怖势力的孳生地、庇护所和扩散源，第一，这是对联合国的公开挑衅；第二，这是对国际社会的公开挑衅；第三，这是对中国的公开挑衅；第四，基于上述三点，叙利亚临时政府想要获得联合国，乃至国际社会的正式承认绝无可能。 在我们看来，叙利亚临时政府没有吸取当年阿富汗临时政府的教训，虽然叙利亚在地缘层面距离中国较远，中国影响力有限，但反过来，中国也可以因此干脆不管。何况，中国目前压根就不想管。 需要提醒的是，如果叙利亚临时政府无法获得联合国，乃至国际社会的正式承认，类似联合国援助这样的款项别想拿到。此外，国际社会可以继续通过叙利亚周边国家影响叙利亚局势的后续发展。当然，这也意味着叙利亚的混乱或还会持续一段时间。与之相对，中东国家解放，民族独立运动的低潮期也会持续一段时间。 ●西方策划这出“闹剧”的过程中，表现出“一边挑衅，一边又小心翼翼”的矛盾心态 至于策划这起闹剧的美、欧，以及躲在欧美后面形形色色的势力，在我们看来，玩这一手的目的无非是瞄着叙利亚局势后续发展急于捏造一个和“无论如何都绕不开、但现在又不急于介入”的中国打交道的“抓手”。需要强调的是，以上意图的核心动机仍建立在防备中国、提防中国的基础上。味道类似俄罗斯，土耳其和伊朗所谓“解决叙利亚问题”而搞的“阿斯塔纳进程”，这是他们之间的默契。 “东伊运”被列入联合国恐怖组织黑名单也是国际社会通过一系列艰苦斗争最终争取来的，某种意义上说，也是某些历史原因造成的，类似台湾问题。所以，一些国家在和中国打交道的时候，总是言必就台湾问题表明立场（台湾是中国不可分割的一部分），作为他们访华成功、获得支持的“敲门砖”。 值得一提的是，由于目前中国无意直接介入叙利亚局势，美欧自然也知道玩这一出不是为了现在。但是，很明显他们在策划这出闹剧的时候也考虑到了中国的实力和影响力，所以，一边挑衅，一边又小心翼翼。玩重了，害怕遭到中国的严厉报复；玩轻了，又无法引起中国的注意。 ●许多西方国家逐渐认识到，他们的问题是美国造成的，而不是中国造成的 1月7日，我们注意到“德国正牵头推动欧盟放松在巴沙尔·阿萨德执政时期对叙利亚实施的制裁”与“美国将部分军事援助资金从埃及转至黎巴嫩”的新闻报道。 目前阶段，欧盟（老欧洲）介入叙利亚非常积极。在我们看来，德国正牵头推动欧盟放松在巴沙尔·阿萨德执政时期对叙利亚实施的制裁，或是欧盟（老欧洲）暗示将进一步切断黎巴嫩真主党的补给。当然，所谓“养寇自重”的道理欧盟也是懂的，黎巴嫩真主党当然要剿灭，但为了更好地与美、以周旋，自然也不可将其全部剿灭。所以，欧盟的主要意图，主要在于瞄着叙利亚局势的后续发展，尽可能赶在美国新旧政府正式交接权利之前掌握主导权。 有关叙利亚局势的后续发展，对拜登政府而言，似乎已经没有精力过度关注了，但姿态还要有，毕竟拜登和“拜登们”还需要通过示好以色列尽量争取美国国内所谓“绝对少数”之“犹太资本”的支持，于是也就有了美国将部分军事援助资金从埃及转至黎巴嫩的这一幕。 需要强调的是，在我们的观察与评估中，尽管表面上美欧在支持黎巴嫩政府的问题上有所一致，但暗中恐怕双方各怀鬼胎。 欧盟支持黎巴嫩政府，某种意义上是“真帮”。但拜登政府这样做，更多是为了示好以色列。当然，这与拜登政府通过侧面推动恶化伊朗与以色列的关系，间接给以色列施压，迫使内塔尼亚胡小集团放弃“大胜”转而只能谋求“小胜”的意图之间并不违和。 需要补充的是，近段时间，就叙利亚局势，乃至中东局势，如果跳出美国“党争”去观察，还是相对平静的。但如果结合美国“党争”一并观察，则显得波谲云诡。再次提醒伊朗当局，在特朗普正式上任之前，仍不排除拜登政府命令美军对伊朗直接进行军事打击的可能性，比如，伊朗核设施。 在这个问题上，特朗普和拜登之间是可以协调的。对特朗普来说，拜登这样做自然拦不住。但是，干成了，中东局面会变得对刚刚上台的特朗普更为有利一些；干不成，拜登政府将锅背走即可。 此外，还需要补充一点的是，结合近几期的综合讨论。韩国尹锡悦政府近段时间想要和中国拉近关系，但美国强压不让，这次的“飞来横祸”就与此有关。但是，随着美帝实力不断削弱，尤其“叙利亚再乱”、美国内部“党争”不断、日韩经济越来越困难，美国还对他们“吸血”的综合背景下，鉴于他们经济也越来越依赖中国，比如，对日本，在光刻行业的一些部件，原材料等方面。两国国家利益反弹越来越强烈。 对此，中国也相应调整相关策略，比如，免签。走群众路线，打破西方媒体对一些西方国家的舆论控制，促使日韩乃至整个西方社会在社会舆论层面掀起“再次认识中国”之潮流。 随着局势的发展，时间的流逝，包括日韩两国在内，许多西方国家越来越深刻认识到，他们的问题是美国造成的，而不是中国造成的。对美国而言，这意味着日后想要笼络，控制这些国家将会变得越来越难，以至于布林肯访韩过程中拿出了“实在不行我也可以选择‘投八路’”一手威胁美国的“盟友们”，这显得十分讽刺。 【相关话题】 第7696期－结合美国国务卿布林肯任期内最后一次外访，再谈为什么“叙利亚再乱”对美国长期国家利益构成巨大损害（2025-1-5） 声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。
Eastern Commentary: Syria's Transitional Government Appoints "East Turkestan" Militants, China Expresses Grave Concern [Media Report] On January 8th, the website of the Chinese Mission to the United Nations released Ambassador Fu Cong's statement at the open meeting of the Security Council on the situation in Syria... Secondly, regardless of how the situation in Syria develops, the bottom line of "zero tolerance" for terrorism cannot be changed. The Security Council recently issued a presidential statement on the situation in Syria, making it clear that all countries should combat all terrorist organizations listed by the Security Council and refuse to provide shelter to terrorists. It is reported that the Syrian army has recently granted senior positions to several foreign terrorist fighters, including the leader of the terrorist organization "Turkistan Islamic Party" (also known as "ETIM"), which is listed by the Security Council. China expresses grave concern about this. We call on Syria to fulfill its counter-terrorism obligations and prevent any terrorist forces from using Syrian territory to threaten the security of other countries... [Discussion Summary] ●Some countries are delighted to see China's influence being contained. We note that on January 8th, the website of the Chinese Mission to the United Nations released Ambassador Fu Cong's statement at the open meeting of the Security Council on the situation in Syria, mentioning that "the Syrian army has recently granted senior positions to several foreign terrorist fighters, including the leader of the terrorist organization 'Turkistan Islamic Party' (also known as 'ETIM')" . China expresses grave concern about this and calls on Syria to fulfill its counter-terrorism obligations and prevent any terrorist forces from using Syrian territory to threaten the security of other countries. This news report reminds us of the transitional government in Afghanistan (the Taliban regime in Afghanistan). On September 9, 2021, Shahin, a spokesman for the Taliban's political office in Doha, said in an interview that many members of the "East Turkestan Islamic Movement" (ETIM) had already left Afghanistan, and it was impossible for any remaining members to stay in Afghanistan in the future. The Taliban would not allow organizations like ETIM to have any training grounds, fund-raising agencies, or soldier recruitment agencies in Afghanistan. However, Shahin did not provide a clear response regarding whether ETIM members would be extradited to China. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian stated at a regular press conference on the 10th that ETIM is an international terrorist organization listed by the UN Security Council, posing a direct threat to China's national security and territorial integrity, and is a major scourge affecting regional security and stability, as well as a cancerous tumor parasitizing on Afghanistan. It is the common responsibility of the international community, including Afghanistan, to resolutely oppose, fully contain, heavily crack down on, and completely eradicate ETIM. Zhao Lijian said that China has repeatedly expressed its grave concern to the Taliban regarding the issue of ETIM, and the Taliban has taken this seriously and made solemn commitments. China hopes that the Taliban will follow through on its words, completely sever ties with terrorist organizations such as ETIM, and take effective measures to resolutely combat them within its territory. At the same time, China hopes that the Taliban will strengthen coordination and cooperation with neighboring countries to avoid cross-border spillover effects, so that Afghanistan will no longer be a breeding ground, safe haven, and source of proliferation for terrorist forces. In our view, this incident is most likely led by the United States and the European Union, but there may also be shadows of countries such as Russia, India, and Iran behind it. Some countries are delighted to see China's influence being contained. After the "9/11" incident, the Bush administration in the United States, with the cooperation of the Putin administration in Russia, conducted a military "leapfrog" into Afghanistan, which surprised many Chinese military and strategic experts. Afghanistan borders China and can be described as China's "backyard" compared to the Western Pacific direction. Afghanistan is also adjacent to Central Asia, which has always been regarded as Russia's "hinterland". Even so, Russia still opened the door for US forces to "leapfrog" into Afghanistan, which involves the famous Russian "Afghan policy calculation". Russia's "Afghan policy calculation" has two aspects: one is to use China's power to contain Western influence; the other is to use Western power to contain China's influence. Although Russia's calculation is named after "Afghanistan", it actually operates on a global scale and remains one of the core elements of Russia's global strategy to this day, which can be called Russia's "true red line". At least until now, Russia still clings to its "Afghan policy calculation". It is worth mentioning that one of the main motivations for the US military's withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 was also aimed at this point. The United States proposed to Russia to maintain the situation in Afghanistan "remotely" through the "Moscow channel" provided by Russia, and exerted a series of pressures, inducements, and threats on Russia, with the extreme strategic pressure on Russia over the Ukraine issue being a typical example. As a result, Russia did not dare to agree due to its fear of being pushed onto the "fast track of being substantially digested by the West" by China (If Russia had agreed to the US request, it would have been tantamount to substantially dismantling Sino-Russian strategic trust, and the West's long-sought "South Asian breakthrough" process would have immediately declared success.). And then, the Russo-Ukrainian War that broke out on February 24, 2022, is closely related to this (The outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War also involves the so-called "economic intent" of the US military-industrial complex to profit from war. When the "economic intent" is extremified, it will be presented through "political means". When "political means" ultimately fail to effectively solve the problem, it will eventually escalate into war.). In a sense, it was the West's sinister intention to dismantle Sino-Russian strategic trust using the Afghanistan issue that "went off script" on the Ukraine issue. As of January 10, 2025, the Russo-Ukrainian War, which has been ongoing for nearly three years, is still far from over. ●If the Syrian Interim Government does not intend to completely sever ties with terrorist organizations such as ETIM, it will be impossible for it to obtain formal recognition from the United Nations and the international community. We would like to reiterate that ETIM is an international terrorist organization listed by the UN Security Council, posing a direct threat to China's national security and territorial integrity, and is a major scourge affecting regional security and stability, as well as a cancerous tumor parasitizing on Afghanistan. It is the common responsibility of the international community, including Afghanistan, to resolutely oppose, fully contain, heavily crack down on, and completely eradicate ETIM. If the Syrian Interim Government does not intend to completely sever ties with terrorist organizations such as ETIM, allowing Syria to once again become a breeding ground, safe haven, and source of proliferation for terrorist forces, first, this is a public provocation to the United Nations; second, it is a public provocation to the international community; third, it is a public provocation to China; fourth, based on the above three points, it will be impossible for the Syrian Interim Government to obtain formal recognition from the United Nations and the international community. In our view, the Syrian Interim Government has not learned from the lessons of the Afghan Interim Government. Although Syria is geographically distant from China and China's influence is limited, conversely, China can simply ignore it. Moreover, China currently has no intention of getting involved. It should be noted that if the Syrian Interim Government cannot obtain formal recognition from the United Nations and the international community, it should not expect to receive funds like UN assistance. In addition, the international community can continue to influence the subsequent development of the situation in Syria through neighboring countries. Of course, this also means that the chaos in Syria may continue for some time. Correspondingly, the low tide of the liberation and national independence movements in Middle Eastern countries may also persist for some time. ● The West's orchestration of this "farce" reveals a contradictory mindset of "provoking while being cautious" As for the US, Europe, and the various forces hiding behind them who orchestrated this farce, it seems to us that their purpose is nothing more than eagerly fabricating a "handle" to engage with China, which they believe is "unavoidable but not urgent to intervene in at present," in anticipation of the subsequent developments in Syria. It is important to emphasize that the core motivation behind this intention is still based on guarding against and being wary of China. This situation bears some resemblance to the "Astana Process" initiated by Russia, Turkey, and Iran for the so-called "resolution of the Syrian issue," which represents a tacit understanding among them. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) being listed on the UN's terrorist organization blacklist is the result of a series of arduous struggles by the international community. In a sense, it is also a product of certain historical reasons, similar to the Taiwan issue. Therefore, when some countries deal with China, they always make it a point to state their position on the Taiwan issue (Taiwan is an inalienable part of China) as a "stepping stone" for a successful visit to China and to gain support. It is worth mentioning that since China currently has no intention of directly intervening in the Syrian situation, the US and Europe naturally know that this move is not for the present. However, it is evident that they have also taken China's strength and influence into account when orchestrating this farce. Therefore, they are provoking while being cautious. If they push too hard, they fear retaliation from China; if they don't push hard enough, they won't be able to catch China's attention. ● Many Western countries are gradually realizing that their problems are caused by the US, not China On January 7th, we noticed news reports about "Germany leading the push for the EU to ease sanctions on Syria imposed during Bashar al-Assad's rule" and "the US redirecting some military aid funds from Egypt to Lebanon." At this stage, the EU (old Europe) is very active in intervening in Syria. In our view, Germany's leadership in pushing for the EU to ease sanctions on Syria imposed during Bashar al-Assad's rule may be a sign that the EU (old Europe) is hinting at further cutting off supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Of course, the EU also understands the concept of "keeping an enemy around to maintain one's own importance," so while Hezbollah must be eliminated, it cannot be completely wiped out in order to better maneuver with the US and Israel. Therefore, the EU's main intention is to focus on the subsequent developments in Syria and try to seize control before the formal transition of power between the old and new US administrations. Regarding the subsequent developments in Syria, the Biden administration seems to have little energy to pay excessive attention, but it still needs to make a gesture. After all, Biden and his allies need to curry favor with the so-called "absolute minority" of "Jewish capital" in the US to gain support. Hence, the scene of the US redirecting some military aid funds from Egypt to Lebanon. It should be emphasized that, in our observation and assessment, although the US and Europe appear to be united in supporting the Lebanese government, they may have hidden agendas. The EU's support for the Lebanese government is, in a sense, "genuine help." However, the Biden administration's action is more about currying favor with Israel. Of course, this is not inconsistent with the Biden administration's intention to indirectly pressure Israel by exacerbating relations between Iran and Israel, forcing the Netanyahu group to abandon a "big win" and instead seek a "small win." It should be added that recently, the situation in Syria and even the Middle East has been relatively calm if observed outside the context of US "partisan politics." However, if observed in conjunction with US "partisan politics," it appears to be full of intrigue. We remind the Iranian authorities again that before Trump officially takes office, the possibility cannot be ruled out that the Biden administration may order the US military to carry out direct military strikes against Iran, such as on its nuclear facilities. On this issue, Trump and Biden can coordinate. For Trump, there is nothing he can do to stop Biden from doing this. However, if it succeeds, the Middle East situation will become more favorable for Trump who has just taken office; if it fails, the Biden administration can simply take the blame. Furthermore, it should be added that, based on recent discussions, the Yoon Suk-yeol government in South Korea has been trying to improve relations with China recently, but the US is strongly pressuring them not to. This "unexpected disaster" is related to that. However, as the strength of the US continues to decline, especially with "Syria becoming chaotic again," ongoing "partisan politics" within the US, and increasing economic difficulties in South Korea and Japan, coupled with the fact that these countries are increasingly economically dependent on China—for example, in the photolithography industry, South Korea and Japan rely on China for certain components and raw materials. The rebound in national interests of these two countries is becoming increasingly strong. In response, China has also adjusted its relevant strategies accordingly, such as visa exemptions. By following the mass line and breaking the Western media's control over public opinion in some Western countries, China is promoting a trend of "re-recognizing China" in South Korea, Japan, and even the entire Western society at the level of public opinion. As the situation develops and time passes, many Western countries, including South Korea and Japan, are increasingly realizing that their problems are caused by the US, not China. For the US, this means that it will become increasingly difficult to coerce and control these countries in the future. To the point where during Blinken's visit to South Korea, he resorted to the threat of "if all else fails, I can choose to 'join the Eighth Route Army'" towards the US's "allies," which is quite ironic. [Related Topics] Issue 7696 - Revisiting Why "Syria Becoming Chaotic Again" Poses a Huge Threat to the US's Long-term National Interests, Based on the Last Foreign Visit of US Secretary of State Blinken During His Term (2025-1-5)
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