土耳其宣称向中国寻求稀土合作
或意欲为“讨论叙利亚问题”寻找搭讪的借口

【媒体报道】

1月6日，土耳其总统埃尔多安对叙利亚的任何分裂发出警告，并表示一旦出现“风险”，他已准备好采取“必要措施”。报道认为，这一警告是对库尔德战斗人员发出的，更是对支持叙利亚民主力量的美国发出的。叙利亚民主力量曾站在打击“伊斯兰国”组织圣战分子的最前沿。土耳其总统表示：“恐怖主义无容身之地，那些支持恐怖主义的人将与他们的武器一同被埋葬。”

1月7日，土耳其能源和自然资源部长阿尔帕斯兰·巴伊拉克塔尔表示，土耳其愿意与中国公司在稀土金属领域合作并获得相关技术。

1月7日，美国当选总统特朗普表示，即将离任的美国总统拜登正在将权力交接复杂化。

【讨论纪要】

●如何才能迫使西方资本利益内部的大多数不敢轻易选择战略冒险？

上次讨论中我们谈到了美国国务卿布林肯访问韩国的可能意图：第一，通过营造“美国或被迫与中国进行‘交易’”之氛围对中国示弱；第二，对欧、俄、日、印等从心里往外不希望中国崛起的方方面面传递信号，如果不配合美国继续遏制中国，不排除美国在必要时候也去“投八路”的可能性；第三，利用将中东局势，乌克兰局势，尤其是西太局势，比如，南海问题，朝鲜半岛问题，甚至台湾问题（重点在朝鲜半岛问题上），朝升级，甚至完全失控方向推动威胁中国。

布林肯的这套把戏，简单形容就是玩极限战略讹诈。于是也就有了国际社会在1月6日通过朝鲜成功发射新型高超音速导弹，对拜登政府，尤其是“拜登政府背后的另一体系”发出强烈警告。

就“拜登政府背后的另一体系”需要再次强调的是，2021年1月6日，在美国国会山骚乱事件中，时任美参谋长联席会议主席的马克·米利采取了一系列行动，例如，与其他国家军方领导人沟通，以确保美国核武器的安全控制。由此可见，在美国政府之外，还有“另外一个体系”对基于全球战略层面的各类风险进行实际把控。某种意义上说，马克·米利的优先级要高于特朗普。

但是，即便基于2021年美国国会山事件之历史事实，到目前为止，我们仍将美国（西方资本利益）选择孤注一掷和妥协投降比例定义为“50%对50%”。大家知道，美军是西方资本利益的核心资产，只是由于目前美国，乃至西方内部围绕本次美国总统大选“内讧”严重，客观上导致美军无法被美国总统有效调动的情况。之所以强调“客观”效果，意思就在于，真正导致美军“无法行动”的是国际社会与美帝做坚决斗争的过程中不抱任何幻想，立足自己，做最坏准备以争取最好局面。说白了就是：“你敢做初一，我就做十五；你敢战略冒险，我就敢掀桌子”。只有这样才能迫使西方资本利益内部的大多数不敢轻易选择战略冒险。

需要补充的是，布林肯的这套把戏之所以相信者大有人在，就是因为一些与美国类似，具有西方文化背景，信奉所谓西方民主价值的国家，如，俄罗斯，都认为，“图强者必霸”，以及“打不过的敌人就做朋友”。所以，他们不仅拿“实在不行我就投降中国”做筹码威胁彼此，而且也相信，如果对方真的走到“实在不行”的地步，“投降中国”完全可能！

●目前阶段，至少欧盟（老欧洲）与土耳其都深刻意识到，处理叙利亚问题（中东问题）恐怕很难绕开中国

让我们将讨论转向中东方向。今天我们将继续讨论叙利亚局势的后续发展。今天的叙利亚局面，就是拜登政府基于“党争”之一己私利，完全不顾及美国长远国家利益而一手造成的。说到叙利亚局势，我们不得不再提一下土耳其这个国家，以及在土耳其公开邀请下，急火火介入叙利亚局势后续发展的欧盟。

2025年1月1日通过乌克兰输送俄罗斯天然气的申请流量为零。尽管欧盟委员会一位发言人称，欧洲天然气基础设施具有足够的灵活性，可以通过替代路线向中东欧国家供应俄罗斯以外地区的天然气。但按斯洛伐克总理菲佐的话说，泽连斯基正在破坏斯洛伐克和欧盟的经济利益。泽连斯基的决定将导致欧盟损失700亿欧元。就在俄罗斯因对欧主要能源输送管线被切断（除“土耳其流”外）而被美国逼入绝境的同时，欧洲也几乎被美国逼上了只能购买美国高价能源的绝路。
这是欧盟急于介入叙利亚局势后续发展的主要原因之一，也是宣布新任总理贝鲁即将访问中国的法国总统马克龙访华最想要与中国讨论的话题之一。至少在欧盟（老欧洲）眼中，处理叙利亚问题（中东问题）恐怕很难绕开中国。

我们注意到近日有关土耳其能源和自然资源部长阿尔帕斯兰·巴伊拉克塔尔表示，土耳其愿意与中国公司在稀土金属领域合作并获得相关技术的新闻报道。

在我们看来，与“老欧洲”有类似想法的还有土耳其。也就是说，尽管目前阶段掌握叙利亚过渡政府，但土耳其也从叙利亚局势后续发展的复杂性和不确定性中深刻感受到，处理叙利亚问题（中东问题）恐怕很难绕开中国。在我们看来，土耳其宣称向中国寻求稀土合作，或意欲为“讨论叙利亚问题”寻找搭讪的借口。

值得一提的是，包括土耳其在内的方方面面都清楚，中国一贯主张“中东是中东人民的中东”，海湾阿拉伯国家更是对中国钟爱有加，所以，在土耳其摆出一副“我准备找机会就叙利亚问题，也就是中东问题找中国好好聊聊”的背后，显然，也是将这一姿态摆给已经介入，以及意欲介入叙利亚局势后续发展的一些势力，比如，美国，欧盟，俄罗斯，以色列，伊朗等。

●土耳其也敢与美国就叙利亚问题公开叫板，足见“叙利亚再乱”对美国国家利益损害之大

说到土耳其，不得不再提一句。

土耳其近段时间总是把“反对分裂叙利亚，必须维持叙利亚主权和领土完整”之类的话挂在嘴边。在我们看来，这不过是为埃尔多安所谓“打土耳其梦”打掩护。

1516年至1918年，‌叙利亚被奥斯曼土耳其帝国占领‌，在这段时间内，叙利亚一直是奥斯曼土耳其帝国的一个行省。在埃尔多安看来，如果能一劳永逸地占据叙利亚，恢复昔日奥斯曼土耳其帝国之荣光，自己成为“大土耳其”的“国父”，就绝对可以永保权利。当然土耳其也知道，“大土耳其”的实现不是一天两天之内就能完成的。至少在过渡阶段，继续宣布支持维护叙利亚主权和领土完整是必要的。然而，即便是过渡阶段，似乎埃尔多安的“梦想”也遭遇到了前所未有的阻碍，一个是美国人支持的库尔敌人势力，另一个则是与其同样有类似想法的以色列内塔尼亚胡小集团。好在土耳其现在有欧盟（透过拉拢俄罗斯和伊朗对欧盟的刺激，促使其尽快介入叙利亚局势后续发展）、俄罗斯和伊朗助力，而欧盟（老欧洲）和俄罗斯恰恰又是乌克兰问题的主要参与者。显然，在埃尔多安公开警告美国，小心“一同被埋葬”的背后：

1. 对整个美国打乌克兰牌，对拜登打以色列牌，对特朗普打叙利亚牌；

第二，埃尔多安的潜台词是，土耳其可以帮美国稳定中东，那美国打算给土耳怎样的回报呢？

第三，如果我埃尔多安不好过，谁也别想好过，包括美国！在我们看来，其中就包括一种可能性，那就是我们所说的，美国作为传统意义上统一的国家形态最长或再7年内解体一事，也许真落在以叙利亚局势后续发展为当前阶段之典型代表的中东问题上，也就是美国的中东政策上。由此可见，一个土耳其也敢与美国就叙利亚问题公开叫板，足见“叙利亚再乱”对美国国家利益损害之大。

●所谓“各怀鬼胎”的一个具体表现就在于，拜登与特朗普之间关系的复杂和微妙性

1月7日，美国当选总统特朗普表示，即将离任的美国总统拜登正在将权力交接复杂化。有趣的是，特朗普指责拜登的表面理由是，拜登宣布禁止在美国大部分沿海海域开发石油和天然气。

在我们看来，特朗普口中的“拜登正在将权力交接复杂化”一定不是指开发石油和天然气这些“鸡毛蒜皮”之事，而是指以美国国务卿布林肯访问韩国为代表的，拜登政府正在实行的所谓“疯狂计划”，其中就包括在本次讨论开篇第一节中提到的内容。

距离2025年1月20日还有不到两周的时间，拜登和“拜登们”想的恐怕只有两个字，那就是讹诈——先就中东方向对内、对外进行讹诈，然后是乌克兰方向，最后是西太方向。与之相对，特朗普和“特朗普们”想的恐怕也只有两个字，那就是维稳——而且是一次性打出三张“维稳牌”（相关内容，大家可以收听第12月17日，7632期东方音频，标题是，还有30余天才可能顺利上位的美国当选总统特朗普为何如此迫不及待连续打出三张“维稳牌”？）。某种意义上说，这是“两列火车在迎面相撞”。无论是哪个战略方向“捅了篓子”，甚至导致局面迅速升级，乃至彻底失控，对特朗普而言，绝对不是“和平交权”！不难看出，尽管拜登和特朗普之间存在一定程度的沟通与协调，尤其在对外政策上，但又与美国内政问题密切相关，且各怀鬼胎。

所谓“各怀鬼胎”的一个具体表现就在于，二者关系的复杂和微妙性。比如，对特朗普而言，虽然其惧怕于拜登的“疯狂计划”，但与此同时，又何尝没有某种投机心理——如果拜登政府能“杀出一条血路”，特朗普上台伊始就能收获一个对美国较为有利的战略局面，那岂不是好事一件？也就是说，特朗普虽然惧怕拜登政府四处搞极限战略讹诈的过程，但真的期待拜登政府四处搞极限战略讹诈的过程的结果。美国人的思维习惯和英国一样，不试到最后一秒，他们怎么知道对方一定坚持到底？基于此，就伊朗为应对“新安全威胁”举行核设施防御演习这一新闻报道的出现，我们再次提醒伊朗决策层务必小心，在中东方向玩极限战略讹诈的拜登政府，如果不能直接逼迫以色列做什么，很可能命令美军“直接下手”，比如，打击伊朗核设施。

对拜登来说，营造“美国或被迫与中国‘交易’的气氛”可以帮助特朗普，这是特朗普默认的。但作为惯用的“胡萝卜+大棒”的“大棒”，我“可以帮你，也可以威胁你”，恐怕这就是特朗普口中“权力交接复杂化”的真实含义。其中就伴随着，首先是中东方向，其次是乌克兰方向，最后是西太方向局面“瞬间失控”的巨大风险。以叙利亚问题为例，不排除美国是就此问题最后向中国“寻求帮助”的一方，如果是这样，美国（西方）接受“河渡人”局面某种意义上就处于一种“不可逆”了，这样距离“中东全面破局”还有多远？

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第7659期－若伊朗继续怂下去，“拜登们”恐怕就不得不直接搞事，将中东，甚至乌克兰局面（不排除西太）继续往失控方向驱赶（2024-12-25）
第7671期－拜登政府摆出“实在不行就孤注一掷”的姿态讹诈四方，包括西太方向，但在几处“可能搞事”之切入点的选择上还是按可控风险程度高低分出三六九等（2024-12-29）

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Turkey Claims to Seek Rare Earth Cooperation with China,
Perhaps Seeking a Pretext to "Discuss the Syrian Issue"

[Media Reports]

On January 6, Turkish President Erdoğan warned against any division of Syria and stated that he is ready to take "necessary measures" if there is any "risk". The report believes that this warning is directed at Kurdish fighters and, more importantly, at the United States, which supports the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF was at the forefront of the fight against jihadists from the Islamic State organization. The Turkish President said, "There is no place for terrorism, and those who support terrorism will be buried along with their weapons."

On January 7, Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar stated that Turkey is willing to cooperate with Chinese companies in the field of rare earth metals and acquire related technologies.

On January 7, U.S. President-elect Trump said that outgoing U.S. President Biden is complicating the transition of power.

[Discussion Summary]

●How can we force the majority within Western capital interests to not easily choose strategic risks?

In our previous discussion, we talked about the possible intentions of U.S. Secretary of State Blinken's visit to South Korea: First, to show weakness to China by creating an atmosphere that "the U.S. may be forced to 'deal' with China"; Second, to signal to Europe, Russia, Japan, India, and others who do not want China to rise that if they do not cooperate with the U.S. in containing China, the U.S. does not rule out the possibility of "joining the Eighth Route Army" (a metaphor for aligning with China) when necessary; Third, to use the situations in the Middle East, Ukraine, and especially the Western Pacific, such as the South China Sea issue, the Korean Peninsula issue, and even the Taiwan issue (with a focus on the Korean Peninsula issue), to escalate or even push towards complete失控 (out of control) to threaten China.

Blinken's tactics can be simply described as playing extreme strategic blackmail. As a result, on January 6, the international community issued a strong warning to the Biden administration, especially "the other system behind the Biden administration," through North Korea's successful launch of a new hypersonic missile.

Regarding the "other system behind the Biden administration," it is worth emphasizing again that during the U.S. Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley took a series of actions, such as communicating with military leaders of other countries to ensure the secure control of U.S. nuclear weapons. This shows that there is "another system" outside the U.S. government that actually controls various risks at the global strategic level. In a sense, Mark Milley has a higher priority than Trump.

However, even based on the historical fact of the 2021 U.S. Capitol incident, we still define the proportion of the U.S. (Western capital interests) choosing to go all in versus compromising and surrendering as "50% to 50%." As we know, the U.S. military is the core asset of Western capital interests, but due to the serious "internal strife" within the U.S. and the West surrounding this U.S. presidential election, the U.S. military cannot be effectively mobilized by the U.S. President. The emphasis on the "objective" effect means that what really makes the U.S. military "unable to act" is that the international community, in resolutely fighting against the U.S. imperialism, does not hold any illusions, relies on itself, and prepares for the worst to strive for the best outcome. In simpler terms: "If you dare to take the first step, I will take the second; if you dare to take strategic risks, I will dare to flip the table." Only in this way can we force the majority within Western capital interests to not easily choose strategic risks.

It should be added that the reason why many people believe in Blinken's tactics is because some countries with a Western cultural background and who believe in so-called Western democratic values, such as Russia, think that "those who seek power will inevitably seek hegemony" and "make friends with enemies they cannot defeat." Therefore, they not only use "I will surrender to China if I have to" as a bargaining chip to threaten each other, but they also believe that if the other side really reaches the point of "having no other choice," "surrendering to China" is entirely possible!

●At this stage, at least the EU (Old Europe) and Turkey deeply realize that it is difficult to bypass China when dealing with the Syrian issue (Middle East issue)

Let's turn our discussion to the Middle East. Today, we will continue to discuss the subsequent development of the Syrian situation. The current situation in Syria is entirely the result of the Biden administration's selfish pursuit of "partisan politics," without any consideration for the long-term national interests of the United States. Speaking of the Syrian situation, we must mention Turkey again, as well as the EU, which has eagerly intervened in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation at Turkey's open invitation.

On January 1, 2025, the requested flow of Russian natural gas through Ukraine was zero. Although a spokesperson for the European Commission said that Europe's natural gas infrastructure is flexible enough to supply Central and Eastern European countries with natural gas from sources other than Russia through alternative routes, according to Slovak Prime Minister Fico, Zelenskyy is undermining the economic interests of Slovakia and the EU. Zelenskyy's decision will result in a loss of 70 billion euros for the EU. Just as Russia is being pushed into a corner by the U.S. due to the cutoff of its main energy pipelines to Europe (except for "Turkish Stream"), Europe is also being forced by the U.S. to buy expensive energy from the U.S. This is one of the main reasons why the EU is eager to intervene in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, and it is also one of the topics that French President Macron, who announced that his new Prime Minister Bérou will visit China, wants to discuss with China. At least in the eyes of the EU (Old Europe), it is difficult to bypass China when dealing with the Syrian issue (Middle East issue).

We have noticed recent news reports that Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar stated that Turkey is willing to cooperate with Chinese companies in the field of rare earth metals and acquire related technologies.

In our view, Turkey shares similar ideas with "Old Europe." That is to say, although Turkey currently controls the Syrian transitional government, it also deeply feels from the complexity and uncertainty of the subsequent development of the Syrian situation that it is difficult to bypass China when dealing with the Syrian issue (Middle East issue). In our opinion, Turkey's claim to seek rare earth cooperation with China may be an excuse to "discuss the Syrian issue," that is, the Middle East issue.

It is worth mentioning that all parties, including Turkey, are aware that China has always advocated that "the Middle East belongs to the people of the Middle East," and Gulf Arab countries are particularly fond of China. Therefore, behind Turkey's posture of "I am ready to find an opportunity to have a good talk with China about the Syrian issue, that is, the Middle East issue," it is obvious that it is also showing this posture to some forces that have intervened or intend to intervene in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, such as the United States, the EU, Russia, Israel, Iran, etc.

●Turkey Dares to Publicly Challenge the US on Syria, Highlighting the Significant Damage to US National Interests if Syria Further Destabilizes

When it comes to Turkey, it's worth mentioning again.

Recently, Turkey has been constantly repeating phrases like "opposing the division of Syria and insisting on maintaining Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity." In our view, this is just a cover for Erdoğan's so-called "pursuit of the Turkish Dream."

From 1516 to 1918, Syria was occupied by the Ottoman Empire, during which time it was a province of the empire. In Erdoğan's view, if Turkey can occupy Syria once and for all, restore the glory of the Ottoman Empire, and establish himself as the "father of a Greater Turkey," he can secure his power permanently. Of course, Turkey is aware that the realization of a "Greater Turkey" cannot be achieved overnight. At least during the transitional phase, it is necessary to continue declaring support for maintaining Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, even during this transitional phase, Erdoğan's "dream" seems to be encountering unprecedented obstacles, one being the Kurdish forces supported by the United States, and the other being the Netanyahu faction in Israel with similar ideas. Fortunately, Turkey now has the support of the EU (by courting Russia and Iran to stimulate the EU into intervening in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation), Russia, and Iran, with the EU (old Europe) and Russia being key players in the Ukraine issue. Clearly, behind Erdoğan's public warning to the US to beware of being "buried together" lies the following:

First, using the Ukraine card against the entire US, the Israel card against Biden, and the Syria card against Trump.

Second, Erdoğan's underlying message is that Turkey can help stabilize the Middle East for the US, so what kind of reward is the US willing to give Turkey?

Third, if I, Erdoğan, am not doing well, no one else will either, including the US! In our view, this includes the possibility that the US, as a traditionally unified nation-state, may disintegrate within the next seven years, perhaps due to the Middle East issue, represented by the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, which is a key aspect of US Middle East policy. This shows that even Turkey dares to publicly challenge the US on the Syrian issue, highlighting the significant damage to US national interests if Syria further destabilizes.

●A Specific Manifestation of "Each Having Their Own Hidden Agendas" Lies in the Complexity and Subtlety of the Relationship Between Biden and Trump

On January 7th, US President-elect Trump stated that outgoing President Biden was complicating the transition of power. Interestingly, Trump accused Biden on the surface for announcing a ban on oil and gas development in most of the US coastal waters.

In our view, when Trump says "Biden is complicating the transition of power," he is certainly not referring to trivial matters like oil and gas development, but rather to the so-called "crazy plan" being implemented by the Biden administration, exemplified by US Secretary of State Blinken's visit to South Korea, which includes the content mentioned in the first section of this discussion.

With less than two weeks until January 20, 2025, Biden and "the Bidens" are probably thinking of only one word: extortion—first, extorting internally and externally in the Middle East direction, then in the Ukraine direction, and finally in the Western Pacific direction. In contrast, Trump and "the Trumps" are probably thinking of only one word: stability—and they are playing three "stability cards" at once (for related content, please listen to the December 17th, 7632nd episode of the Oriental Audio, titled "Why Is US President-elect Trump, Who Still Has Over 30 Days Before Taking Office, So Eager to Play Three 'Stability Cards' Consecutively?"). In a sense, this is like "two trains colliding head-on." Whether any strategic direction "causes trouble" or even leads to a rapid escalation and complete loss of control, it would absolutely not be a "peaceful transfer of power" for Trump. It is not difficult to see that although there is some degree of communication and coordination between Biden and Trump, especially on foreign policy, they each have their own hidden agendas, which are closely related to US domestic political issues.

A specific manifestation of "each having their own hidden agendas" lies in the complexity and subtlety of their relationship. For example, although Trump fears Biden's "crazy plan," at the same time, he also has a certain speculative mindset—if the Biden administration can "carve out a path," Trump can inherit a strategic situation that is relatively favorable to the US when he takes office, which would be a good thing. That is to say, although Trump fears the process of the Biden administration engaging in extreme strategic extortion everywhere, he really looks forward to the results of the Biden administration's extreme strategic extortion. Americans, like the British, won't know if the other side will persist until the last second. Based on this, with the emergence of the news report that Iran is holding nuclear facility defense exercises in response to "new security threats," we once again remind the Iranian decision-makers to be cautious. The Biden administration, which is engaging in extreme strategic extortion in the Middle East direction, may "directly take action" by ordering the US military to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if it cannot directly force Israel to do anything.

For Biden, creating an "atmosphere where the US may be forced to 'negotiate' with China" can help Trump, which is something Trump tacitly agrees with. But as the "stick" in the commonly used "carrot + stick" approach, "I can help you, or I can threaten you," this is probably the true meaning of Trump's "complicating the transition of power." This is accompanied by the enormous risk of situations "instantly spinning out of control" in the Middle East direction first, then the Ukraine direction, and finally the Western Pacific direction. Taking the Syrian issue as an example, it cannot be ruled out that the US may be the one to "seek help" from China on this issue. If this is the case, the acceptance by the US (the West) of a "crossing the river by feeling the stones" situation will become somewhat "irreversible." So, how far are we from a "comprehensive breakthrough in the Middle East"?

[Related Topics]

Episode 7637 - Paraphrasing Putin's Famous Quote "What's the Use of a World Without Russia?" Biden's Self-Proclamation as a "Zionist" Sends the Signal that "What's the Use of a US Without Biden?" (December 18, 2024)
Episode 7659 - If Iran Continues to Cower, the "Bidens" May Have to Directly Stir Up Trouble, Driving the Situations in the Middle East and Even Ukraine (Not Excluding the Western Pacific) Further Towards "out of control" (December 25, 2024)
Episode 7671 - The Biden Administration Adopts a Posture of "Going All In if Necessary" to Extort All Sides, Including the Western Pacific Direction, But Still Ranks Potential Points of Intervention Based on Controllable Risk Levels (December 29, 2024)

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