https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R2sZufFqvPEOeYZI-z0QfQ
2025年1月6日，星期一，第1150期 东方点评，美国安顾问沙利文访问印度期间将讨论中国雅鲁藏布江水利工程的“负面影响” 【媒体报道】 1月4日，一位美国高级官员透露称，美国国家安全顾问沙利文1月5日至6日访问印度期间，将与印度官员讨论中国修建水坝的影响。这名官员称，“我们确实在印太地区许多地方看到，中国在上游修建的水坝，包括湄公河地区，可能对下游国家造成潜在破坏性的环境和气候影响。” 【讨论纪要】 ●很多国家都担心自己的核心利益是否在所谓“中美交易名单”之列 在上周六讨论中，我们大致给出了一个新观点：美国国务卿布林肯任期内最后一次出访，意欲在国际范围内营造一种“美国或被迫与中国达成‘交易’”的氛围。无独有偶，2024年12月22日，美国总统国家安全事务助理杰克·沙利文自称，他不认为当选总统特朗普能和中国谈成“大买卖”。对此，全世界都感到好奇，好奇中国和美国之间到底是否存在“交易”，如果存在，“交易内容”又是怎样的“大买卖”。 1月4日，据乌克兰媒体报道，即将离职的美国国务卿布林肯在1月3日接受英国媒体采访的时候爆出一则猛料，称当俄罗斯总统普京考虑动用核选项时，是中国阻止了这一切的发生。根据布林肯的说法，美国情报系统在得知俄罗斯有可能向乌克兰发射核武器时，立刻向中国发出了预警。随后，中国方面采取了行动，通过外交渠道或其他方式，劝说俄罗斯不要执行这一极端决定。布林肯说，中国对俄罗斯的干预可能是直接影响了普京的决策，虽然他没有提供更详细的证据或说明。 就布林肯的“自我猜测”，在我们看来，中俄双方都不会主动对此进行回应。即便有所回应，俄方也不会承认是中国阻止了俄罗斯，中国更不会承认有如此大影响力去阻止俄罗斯做什么。但有一点可以肯定，美媒在竭力渲染中美之间仍存在某种战略协调，比如，“美国情报系统在得知俄罗斯有可能向乌克兰发射核武器时，立刻向中国发出了预警”。这也让方方面面更进一步猜测中美之间到底发生了什么。 尽管很多国家恐惧美国，甚至憎恨美国，但同样有很多国家恐惧中国，尤其是一个正在经历伟大复兴的中国。其中包括俄罗斯和欧洲，也包括很多中国周边国家，比如，日本，韩国，印度，缅甸，越南，菲律宾等。甚至包括南美洲的一些国家。“猜测中美之间到底发生了什么”的意思就在于，他们惧怕自己的核心利益是否在“中美交易名单”之列。 ●美国也会“投八路”？ 尽管中国通过成功发射“DF-31AG”洲际弹道导弹展现“掏洞打所”（瞄着“西方资本复杂转进”进程）之能力和决心；通过仅用14个月成功建造世界上独一无二的“076型”两栖攻击舰、一天内曝出两款“新型战机”等震慑西方邪恶势力，以至于中国军事实力发展如此之快，某种意义上说，所谓“美国军事霸权”对于中国而言仅是“存量问题”。但是，这也让美媒与拜登政府炒作“中美交易”说“更具说服力”。 熟悉美国历史的朋友们都知道，美国成长为世界性强国主要经历了两个重要历史事件：第一，美西战争；第二，第二次世界大战。前者，美国通过夺取西班牙在美洲和亚洲的殖民地古巴、波多黎各、菲律宾等，逐渐成长为世界性大国。后者，为美国成长为超级大国奠定坚实基础。尤其在英国向美国（英镑向美元）让渡霸权后，出现了大家熟知的“美英特殊关系”。值得一提的是，美国民主党相对于美国共和党来说，带有一些“理想主义色彩”，对他们来说，如果对手足够强大，在拜登政府看来，与之“做朋友”并不是什么丢人的事情。前提当然是各方如果不听美国号令的话。也就是说，布林肯和沙利文也好，美国媒体也罢，刻意营造“美国或被迫与中国达成‘交易’”之氛围的潜台词就是，“你们不要逼我，否则我也去‘投八路’！”。在我们看来，这层潜台词的首要目标，一个是欧盟，另一个就是俄罗斯。 需要补充的是，如果拜登认为，在和特朗普之间，就美国对外政策如何协调的问题上，有可能会出现有利于强化拜登和“拜登们”围绕本次美国总统大选展开的美国有史以来最激烈的内斗过程中谋取到更大利益，自然拜登政府会做。至少基于“现在对拜登政府有利，未来对特朗普政府有利”为筹码，继续和特朗普讨价还价是在逻辑上是说得过去的。拜登的筹码看着务实，但又务虚。说起务虚，但又瞄着实处。总之，拜登的意思就是，尽管还有两周不到的时间，但能够“帮助”特朗普的只有拜登，所以，特朗普要好好答谢才是。 ●所谓“美国也会‘投八路’”不过是一枚“烟幕弹”…… 美国也会“投八路”吗？也许有的网友会问，美国释放这一信号的本质是什么。对此，我们不妨透过一则新闻加以讨论。 1月4日，一位美国高级官员透露称，美国国家安全顾问沙利文1月5日至6日访问印度期间，将与印度官员讨论中国修建水坝的影响。这名官员称，“我们确实在印太地区许多地方看到，中国在上游修建的水坝，包括湄公河地区，可能对下游国家造成潜在破坏性的环境和气候影响。” 中国刚刚批准雅鲁藏布江水利工程项目，美国人就拿来做文章了。 值得一提的是，印度从来反对中国修建雅鲁藏布江水利工程。反对的理由，当然是“可能对下游国家造成潜在破坏性的环境和气候影响”。但实际上，雅鲁藏布江的下游，也就是印度方面称之为布拉马普特拉河的部分，其主要的水补给并不是上游来水，而是来自该段丰厚的雨量——由于河流域位于喜马拉雅山脉的南坡，面迎西南季风。这种地理位置使得流域内的空气湿度较高，西南季风从印度洋带来大量的水汽，登陆后遇到山脉阻挡，形成丰富的地形雨。布拉马普特拉河流域的降水量大且雨季长。由于地处迎风坡，降水量显著高于背风坡的恒河。真正让印度对中国修建雅鲁藏布江水利工程感到忌惮的是，一旦项目建成，由于该水利工程发电量三倍于长江三峡水利工程，除了供应西藏地区用电外，自然会对中国周边地区出口电力，这显然不利于印度对周边国家的控制。 综上讨论大家不难看出，美国人一边放风“或被迫和中国进行‘交易’”，另一边通过威逼利诱等手段，极尽挑拨离间之能事。所谓“美国也会‘投八路’”不过是一枚“烟幕弹”，以此为掩护，到处拉帮结派，四处遏制、威胁、讹诈中国。 ●如果国际社会应对得当，利用中东局势的最新变化，完全可能迫使美国人把假戏变成了真唱！ 让我们将讨论的焦点转向中东。 我们注意到，土耳其方面有关“俄乌天然气协议到期，我们可以顶上”的言论。这一言论很好验证了此前我们就叙利亚局势后续发展中，土耳其为何如此积极的相关评估。除了传统安全层面的因素（比如，库尔德人问题）外，非传统安全层面，土耳其对执多条能源管线之“牛耳”非常期待。这种期待是如此的迫切，以至于土耳其方面将其公开、直白地表达了出来。今天土耳其方面之所以敢于这样说，就在于土耳其有办法让伊朗、俄罗斯，甚至欧盟出于各自的小算盘，阶段性愿意配合土耳其这样做。 不难想象的是，如果中东的能源能够通过土耳其输往欧洲，欧洲对美国的能源依赖就会被大幅削弱。如果借此机会，欧盟有机会重新恢复和俄罗斯的能源供应联系，美国更会因此被赶出欧洲。此外，伊朗也想利用欧美矛盾杀出重围，促使欧美双方基于各自利益考量分别和伊朗缓和关系。 显然，很多中东国家都希望引入欧盟去平衡美国、以色列，进而在叙利亚局势后续发展中为自己谋取最大利益，甚至以色列都会思考是否，或如何另攀高枝。这也是此前我们多次强调，叙利亚局势后续发展对美国长远国家利益损害极大的具体表现。 如果我们把以叙利亚局势后续发展为代表的当前中东局势“代入”美方正在营造的“美国或被迫与中国达成‘交易’”之氛围去观察，如果国际社会应对得当，利用中东局势的最新变化，完全可能迫使美国人的小算盘玩脱搞，把假戏变成了真唱！当然，这是国际社会因应拜登政府玩得这一出而做出的具体应对手段，我们只在乎过程，并不在乎结果。且在这个过程中，一定会让俄罗斯阿富汗小九九与欧美联手封锁中国等进程受到严重干扰与冲击。 关键在于，无论美国人想怎么玩，无论我们如何陪美国人去玩，都需要时间！比如，雅鲁藏布江水利项目我们就立项了。你美国人会玩合纵，我们何尝不会玩连横？我们也可以和印度接触，你们发展经济需要能源，我们恰好有富裕的能源供应，互利共赢，岂不美哉？为什么一定要接受美国人的挑拨离间玩零和游戏呢？更何况，美国，乃至整个西方从来没把印度当人看！美国就“锡克教徒遭暗杀事件”欺负印度的一处还历历在目！ ●美国人耍小聪明，是在作茧自缚。玩来玩去，都需要时间！ 值得一提的是，美方营造“或被迫与中国达成‘交易’”之氛围也并非完全务虚。我们注意到近期有关中国开始填黄岩岛的消息见诸网络，但从当前国际局势演化背景观察，传闻是真的可能性是存在的。 黄岩岛，被我们称之为基于全球战略层面的“大号的钓鱼岛”，钓的就是美国在西太还没有彻底死心的“鱼”。道理很简单，南海问题何去何从，美国一定会想起自己当年如何基于美西战争走向强大，走向世界的那段历史。所以，所谓的“交易”，美国或会首先从南海问题开始做文章，也就是营造“实在不行，就把南海问题的控制权彻底让渡给中国”的氛围，如果欧、俄拒不听从美国的号令的话。当然，这种氛围的营造，是营造局面向有利于中国方向移动的假象，不到万不得已，美方恐怕不会将棋走到“不可逆”的地步。 最后需要补充的是，局面走到今天这步田地，首先，都拜围绕本次美国总统大选美国，乃至西方内部恶斗不断所赐；其次，也与中国连续“亮肌肉”密切相关。这是对美国军事霸权的绝对诛心！更让“中东全面破局”可能出现的概率大幅提升。在我们看来，美国人在耍小聪明，是在作茧自缚。道理还是那句话，玩来玩去，都需要时间。 问题在于，美国乐此不疲，美国的“小弟”们难道都是傻子，瞎子和聋子？ 以日本为例，美国人应该没有忘记当年日本前首相田中角荣是如何抢在美国前面访华的。日本恐惧金融断尾，更恐惧被三家分晋。而被美国完全掌握在手心的韩国既可以在朝鲜半岛挑事儿，也可能掉头去打日本。前者日本被迫要加入，否则，和韩国可能爆发军事冲突。对此日本一筹莫展，只能问计中国。但问题在于，日方可有决心排除美方施加的压力？比如，是否有决心通过把驻日美军彻底赶走的方式，以表“投诚”之诚意。 【相关话题】 第7647期－透过简单回顾“地中海计划”，小谈为什么欧盟如此积极的介入叙利亚局势的后续发展（2024-12-22） 声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。
January 6, 2025, Monday, Issue 1150 Oriental Commentary: US National Security Advisor Sullivan to Discuss "Negative Impacts" of China's Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Projects During India Visit [Media Report] On January 4, a senior US official revealed that during US National Security Advisor Sullivan's visit to India from January 5 to 6, he will discuss with Indian officials the impact of China's dam construction. The official stated, "We have indeed seen in many places across the Indo-Pacific region that dams built by China upstream, including in the Mekong River region, may have potentially damaging environmental and climatic impacts on downstream countries." [Discussion Summary] ● Many Countries Are Concerned Whether Their Core Interests Are on the So-Called "Sino-US Deal List" During our discussion last Saturday, we roughly presented a new viewpoint: US Secretary of State Blinken's last overseas visit during his tenure aims to create an atmosphere internationally that "the US may be forced to strike a 'deal' with China." Similarly, on December 22, 2024, US Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Jake Sullivan claimed that he did not believe President-elect Trump could negotiate a "big deal" with China. As a result, the world is curious about whether there is indeed a "deal" between China and the US, and if so, what the "big deal" entails. On January 4, Ukrainian media reported that outgoing US Secretary of State Blinken revealed a sensational piece of news during an interview with a British media outlet on January 3, claiming that when Russian President Putin considered using nuclear options, it was China that prevented this from happening. According to Blinken, when the US intelligence system learned of the possibility of Russia launching nuclear weapons at Ukraine, it immediately issued a warning to China. Subsequently, China took action, through diplomatic channels or other means, to persuade Russia not to carry out this extreme decision. Blinken said that China's intervention in Russia may have directly influenced Putin's decision-making, although he did not provide more detailed evidence or explanations. Regarding Blinken's "self-speculation," in our view, neither China nor Russia will proactively respond to this. Even if they do respond, Russia will not admit that China stopped them, and China will not acknowledge having such a significant influence to stop Russia from doing anything. However, one thing is certain: US media is trying to exaggerate that there is still some sort of strategic coordination between China and the US, such as, "When the US intelligence system learned of the possibility of Russia launching nuclear weapons at Ukraine, it immediately issued a warning to China." This has led to further speculation about what exactly is happening between China and the US. Although many countries fear and even hate the US, many also fear China, especially a China undergoing a great rejuvenation. These include Russia and Europe, as well as many neighboring countries of China, such as Japan, South Korea, India, Myanmar, Vietnam, and the Philippines, and even some countries in South America. The meaning of "speculating about what is happening between China and the US" lies in their fear of whether their core interests are on the "Sino-US deal list." ● Can the US Also "Side with the Eighth Route Army"? Despite China demonstrating its ability and determination to "dig deep and strike specifically" (targeting the process of "complex transfer of Western capital") through the successful launch of the "DF-31AG" intercontinental ballistic missile, and deterring Western evil forces by successfully building the world's unique "Type 076" amphibious assault ship in just 14 months and revealing two "new fighter aircraft" within a day. The rapid development of China's military strength, to some extent, the so-called "US military hegemony" is merely a "stock issue" for China. However, this has also made the "Sino-US deal" narrative promoted by US media and the Biden administration more "convincing." Those familiar with US history know that the US's rise as a world power was primarily shaped by two important historical events: first, the Spanish-American War; and second, World War II. The former saw the US gradually emerge as a world power by seizing Spain's colonies in the Americas and Asia, including Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines. The latter laid a solid foundation for the US to become a superpower. Especially after Britain ceded its hegemony to the US (the transition from the British pound to the US dollar), the well-known "special relationship" between the US and the UK emerged. It's worth noting that compared to the Republican Party, the Democratic Party in the US carries some "idealistic tendencies." For them, if an opponent is strong enough, it is not embarrassing for the Biden administration to "befriend" them, provided that all parties heed US directives. In other words, the underlying message of Blinken, Sullivan, and US media deliberately creating an atmosphere that "the US may be forced to strike a 'deal' with China" is, "Don't push me, or I might also 'side with the Eighth Route Army'!" In our view, the primary targets of this underlying message are the European Union and Russia. It should be added that if Biden believes that there is potential for him and Trump to gain greater advantages in the most intense internal struggle in US presidential election history, centered around coordinating US foreign policy, the Biden administration would certainly do so. At the very least, it is logically plausible for the Biden administration to continue negotiating with Trump, using the bargaining chip that "what is beneficial for the Biden administration now may be beneficial for the Trump administration in the future." Biden's bargaining chip appears pragmatic yet abstract, and while it seems abstract, it is aimed at concrete goals. In short, Biden's message is that although there are less than two weeks left, it is only Biden who can "help" Trump, so Trump should be grateful. ●The claim that "the US might also 'side with the Eighth Route Army'" is just a "smokescreen"... Would the US "side with the Eighth Route Army"? Some netizens may ask what the essence of this signal from the US is. To explore this, let's delve into a news story. On January 4th, a senior US official revealed that during US National Security Advisor Sullivan's visit to India from January 5th to 6th, he would discuss with Indian officials the impact of Chinese dam construction. The official stated, "We have indeed observed in many parts of the Indo-Pacific region that dams built by China upstream, including in the Mekong River region, may have potentially damaging environmental and climatic impacts on downstream countries." As soon as China approved the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, the US started to make an issue out of it. It's worth noting that India has always opposed China's construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project. The reason given is, of course, "potentially damaging environmental and climatic impacts on downstream countries". However, in reality, the main water supply for the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, known as the Brahmaputra River in India, does not come from upstream but from the abundant rainfall in that section – due to the river basin being located on the southern slope of the Himalayas, facing the southwest monsoon. This geographical location makes the air humidity in the basin relatively high, and the southwest monsoon brings a large amount of moisture from the Indian Ocean. When it lands, it encounters the mountain range, resulting in abundant orographic rain. The Brahmaputra River basin receives significant rainfall with a long rainy season. Being on the windward slope, the rainfall is significantly higher than that on the leeward slope of the Ganges. What really makes India wary of China's construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is that once completed, with its power generation capacity three times that of the Three Gorges Dam, apart from supplying electricity to Tibet, it will naturally export electricity to neighboring regions, which is obviously disadvantageous for India's control over neighboring countries. From the above discussion, it is not difficult to see that while the US is spreading rumors about "possibly being forced to make a 'deal' with China", it is also doing its utmost to sow discord through coercion, inducements, and other means. The so-called "the US might also 'side with the Eighth Route Army'" is just a "smokescreen" to cover up its actions as it forms cliques everywhere and contains, threatens, and blackmails China. ●If the international community responds appropriately and leverages the latest changes in the Middle East situation, it is entirely possible to force the Americans to turn their false pretense into a genuine action! Let's shift our focus to the Middle East. We have noticed Turkey's statement that "when the Russia-Ukraine natural gas agreement expires, we can step in". This statement well validates our previous assessment of why Turkey has been so active in the subsequent developments of the Syrian situation. Apart from traditional security factors (such as the Kurdish issue), in terms of non-traditional security, Turkey eagerly anticipates holding the "reins" of multiple energy pipelines. This anticipation is so urgent that Turkey has expressed it openly and straightforwardly. The reason Turkey dares to say this today is that it has ways to make Iran, Russia, and even the EU willing to cooperate with Turkey in stages for their own interests. It's not hard to imagine that if Middle Eastern energy can be transported to Europe through Turkey, Europe's dependence on US energy will be significantly reduced. If this opportunity is seized, the EU may have a chance to restore its energy supply relationship with Russia, and the US could be squeezed out of Europe as a result. Furthermore, Iran also wants to take advantage of the conflicts between Europe and the US to break out of its predicament and prompt both Europe and the US to ease their relations with Iran based on their respective interests. Clearly, many Middle Eastern countries hope to introduce the EU to balance the US and Israel, thereby maximizing their own interests in the subsequent developments of the Syrian situation. Even Israel will consider whether or how to seek new alliances. This is also a concrete manifestation of our previous emphasis that the subsequent developments of the Syrian situation will greatly harm the long-term national interests of the US. If we "substitute" the current Middle East situation, represented by the subsequent developments of the Syrian situation, into the atmosphere that the US is creating of "the US may be forced to reach a 'deal' with China", and if the international community responds appropriately and leverages the latest changes in the Middle East situation, it is entirely possible to force the Americans' small calculations to backfire and turn their false pretense into genuine action! Of course, this is a specific response by the international community to the Biden administration's tactics, and we only care about the process, not the outcome. Moreover, in this process, Russia's hidden agenda in Afghanistan and the process of Europe and the US joining forces to blockade China will surely be severely disrupted and impacted. The key is that no matter how the Americans want to play, and no matter how we accompany them in their game, it all takes time! For example, we have already approved the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project. If the Americans can play the game of uniting allies, why can't we play the game of forming alliances? We can also engage with India. You need energy for economic development, and we happen to have surplus energy supplies. Mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, isn't that wonderful? Why must we accept the Americans' sowing of discord and play a zero-sum game? Furthermore, the US, and the West as a whole, has never treated India as an equal! The incident where the US bullied India over the assassination of Sikh leaders is still fresh in our memories! ●Americans playing smart are only entrapping themselves. All these games require time! It's worth mentioning that the US creating an atmosphere of "being forced to reach a 'deal' with China" is not entirely unsubstantial. We've noticed recent news on the internet about China starting to reclaim the Huangyan Island. However, observing from the evolution of the current international situation, there is a possibility that the rumor is true. Huangyan Island, which we refer to as a "larger Diaoyu Island" at the global strategic level, is baiting the "fish" that the US hasn't completely given up on in the Western Pacific. The reason is simple: regarding the direction of the South China Sea issue, the US will surely recall how it grew strong and emerged onto the world stage based on the Spanish-American War. Therefore, for the so-called "deal," the US may start with the South China Sea issue, creating an atmosphere of "if all else fails, we will completely cede control of the South China Sea issue to China" if Europe and Russia refuse to follow US orders. Of course, creating this atmosphere is a facade to shift the situation in China's favor. The US probably won't push the game to an "irreversible" point unless absolutely necessary. Lastly, it should be added that the situation has come to this point firstly due to the continuous internal strife within the US and the West surrounding the current US presidential election. Secondly, it is closely related to China's continuous "flexing of muscles." This is an absolute blow to US military hegemony! It also significantly increases the likelihood of a "comprehensive breakdown in the Middle East." In our view, Americans playing smart are only entrapping themselves. The reason remains the same: all these games require time. The question is, while the US is enjoying this, are its "junior partners" all fools, blind, and deaf? Take Japan as an example. Americans shouldn't forget how former Japanese Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka visited China ahead of the US. Japan fears financial decoupling and even more so being divided by several countries. South Korea, completely under US control, can stir up trouble on the Korean Peninsula or turn around and attack Japan. In the former case, Japan would be forced to join, otherwise, a military conflict with South Korea may erupt. Japan is at a loss and can only seek advice from China. But the question is, does Japan have the determination to resist the pressure exerted by the US? For example, does it have the determination to show sincerity by completely expelling US troops stationed in Japan? [Related Topics] Issue 7647 - A Brief Review of the "Mediterranean Plan" to Discuss Why the EU is So Actively Involved in the Subsequent Development of the Syrian Situation (2024-12-22)
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