https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R2sZufFqvPEOeYZI-z0QfQ
2025年1月4日，星期六，第1148期 围绕叙利亚局势后续发展的“一桌儿麻将”基本已经凑齐 【媒体报道】 1月3日，据白俄罗斯媒体报道，该国领导人卢卡申科准备在白俄罗斯总统大选前访问中国。白俄罗斯总统大选定于1月26日举行。 1月3日，法国外交部长巴罗和德国外交部长贝尔伯克到访叙利亚首都大马士革，并与叙利亚过渡政府领导层会面。 【讨论纪要】 ●欧盟介入叙利亚局势后续发展心情如此急切，恐与土耳其的一番“骚操作”密切相关 1月3日，法国外交部长巴罗和德国外交部长贝尔伯克到访叙利亚首都大马士革，并与叙利亚过渡政府领导层会面。这一新闻报道，属于“等待性质的新闻”。在2024年12月22日的讨论中，我们集中讨论了“透过简单回顾‘地中海计划’，小谈为什么欧盟如此积极地介入叙利亚局势的后续发展”这一话题。指出，欧盟急于介入叙利亚局势后续发展，意欲掌控素有“中东十字路口”之称的叙利亚的主要意图之一在于，在俄乌战争仍然延宕，美国对欧洲能源掌控越来越紧，能源价格高企让欧洲制造业惨淡经营，且俄罗斯输欧主要能源管线被切断的背景下，构建一条首先独立于美国控制之外的“属于欧洲自己”的能源管线。 在2024年12月18日，我们提到“对叙利亚局势后续发展小心思颇多的欧盟终于在土耳其的‘邀请’下介入了”的观点。从2024年12月18日到2025年1月3日，欧盟的“两面政治旗手”，号称“老欧洲”的核心国家之二，德国和法国的外长到访叙利亚，不过半个月的时间，由此可见欧盟介入叙利亚局势后续发展之心情急切溢于言表。 这又是为什么呢？在我们看来，恐怕与土耳其的一番“操作”密切相关。 我们注意到，近日，俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃就德国外长贝尔伯克有关俄罗斯在叙利亚基地的声明做出回应。扎哈罗娃提醒贝尔伯克，美国在德国也有基地。无独有偶，同样在近日，联合国人权理事会（欧盟把控）指责以色列袭击加沙医院致其成“死亡陷阱”，破坏医疗系统。 自阿萨德政权被颠覆后，俄罗斯始终想要保留在叙利亚的两个军事基地。但在欧盟看来，原来有“合法身份”的俄罗斯驻军，如今已沦落为“非法移民”，还有什么资格继续保留在叙利亚的军事基地呢？在我们看来，其中恐怕就有土耳其借拉拢伊朗，尤其是俄罗斯，进而刺激欧盟，推动欧盟尽快介入叙利亚局势后续发展的因素。欧盟介入后，土耳其自然就有了进一步平衡美国和以色列的筹码。这是联合国人权理事会（欧盟把控）对以色列军队近日针对加沙医院所做一系列恶行进行谴责的主要原因之一。 欧盟以后想要在叙利亚站住脚，必须和叙利亚的邻国，尤其是中东主要国家搞好关系，显然，这份谴责有利于拉近欧盟与中东国家之间的关系。当然，德国外长的言论，表面上看是说给俄罗斯听的，实际上也是说给土耳其听的，言外之意就是：既然土耳其有心“请客”，那么在“客人”进“屋子”（叙利亚）前，类似俄罗斯军事基地这种“垃圾”，土耳其是不是及时清理一下？否则，诚意何在？ ●俄罗斯应通过具体行动表达邀请国际社会协助维稳白俄罗斯之诚意 从德国外长的言论中不难看出俄罗斯在叙利亚阿萨德政权被颠覆后到底蒙受了怎样巨大的战略损失。至少现阶段，无论是在重返叙利亚的问题上（再次强调，这种重返方式是错误的。包括伊朗在内，正确的重返方式应着眼于有效重启上合，从推动与中国实质性联手，稳定中亚，安定南亚，后借伊朗为战略支点，将与西方博弈的前线推到叙利亚），还是“土耳其流”，俄罗斯必须看土耳其的颜色行事了。土耳其从原来俄罗斯的“小老婆”摇身一变，成为俄罗斯惹不起的“姑奶奶”。 俄罗斯的损失，自然让白俄罗斯倍感压力，这或是白俄罗斯方面宣布其总统卢拉申科在总统大选之前，也就是1月26日前紧急访华的主要原因。 在我们看来，卢卡申科此次访问或有向中国寻求某种承诺。至于可能的内容是什么，还需继续观察事态后续发展。比如，再来一次中白联合演习，当然可以，但又能如何呢？毕竟中白之间隔着一个俄罗斯，除非俄罗斯公开邀请中国“抱一抱”白俄罗斯这个“俄罗斯的孩子”。但是，邀请总要有诚意，这份诚意仅停留在口头和务虚层（比如，所谓俄罗斯有意和中国一起解决中俄历史遗留问题）是不合适的，一定要有行动，比如，实质性推动中俄联手进程，稳定中亚，安定南亚；比如，实质性推动“首先两件事”与“其次两件事”；比如，与伊朗签署相关协议，为伊朗提供核安全背书，实质性推动中东地区反帝、反霸运动重回高潮等等。 说到稳定中亚，顺便提一句的是，近日，有关哈萨克斯坦总统最新涉华表态引起了各方注意。哈萨克斯坦总统托卡耶夫表示，哈中之间不存在分歧。 在我们看来，图卡耶夫总统“后补”的这句“哈中之间不存在分歧”，指的应该是“中吉乌铁路”项目开工建造这件事。由于哈萨克斯坦的利益得到了一定弥补，俄罗斯的态度也相对明确，再加上中国对哈萨克斯坦的重要性，哈萨克斯坦还是顾全大局，在上合名义下，应邀出兵塞尔维亚协助维稳，并在塞尔维亚局势稳定后，补上了“哈中之间不存在分歧”这句话。值得一提的是，哈萨克斯坦出于自身利益考虑，对“中吉乌铁路”项目有心结，但对于国际社会来说，哈萨克斯坦虽大，但中亚更大，国际社会需要尽可能照顾到所有中亚国家的利益，其中必不可少的会与哈萨克斯坦之间产生一些分歧，但这种分歧是完全可以通过协商和发展来解决的。这一点需要哈萨克斯坦从本国，以及中亚长远利益角度出发加以理解。 ●不排除其欲借炒作“美国或被迫与中国做交易、进而承认未来世界应由中国主导”此话题，刺激各方出面干预的可能性 1月3日，美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯开启预计是他任内的最后一次海外之行，将出访韩国、日本和法国。 在我们看来，对美国而言，基于当年美国在加勒比海击败西班牙后逐渐崛起为世界性强国的历史过往，非常重视南海问题。有美国的学者智库将南海与中国，同昔日的加勒比海与美国相提并论。 在叙利亚阿萨德政权被颠覆后，任何人都不难看出，叙利亚局势的后续发展对美国国家长远利益非常不利，哪有自己全球战略重中之重所在的中东地区，任由出现九龙治水、群雄逐鹿之局面的道理？ 目前阶段，在土耳其的公开邀请下，欧盟已经介入叙利亚局势后续发展之中，这对于即将上台的特朗普而言显然是不利的。对于即将下台，借将中东局势向更复杂、更混乱方向推动的拜登政府而言，某种意义上说也并非全都是好事。至少对于欧盟介入叙利亚局势后续发展后，可能对中东地区产生的新影响，比如，欧盟谴责以色列一事，拜登政府还是要“补一手棋”的。即便从自身小集团利益出发，拜登政府也要对未来美国如何与中、欧、俄就全球局势后续演化如何博弈施加一些影响。“补一手棋”自然不能太急，否则没准儿导致欧俄走近，尾大不掉。 值得一提的是，当年，由于法、英等老牌儿帝国主义国家忌惮美国这个新兴帝国主义国家的崛起，出面干预美国与西班牙之间的战争，迫使美西最终讲和。所以，布林肯最后一次外访，涉及日、韩、法三国，不排除其欲借炒作“美国或被迫与中国做交易、进而承认未来世界应由中国主导”此话题，刺激仍在旧秩序中或深或浅，仍保有既得利益的各方出面干预，其中自然也包括俄罗斯。 当然，美国一方面这样做，在给中国以外的各方施压，甚至动员，但何尝又不是对中国进行战略讹诈？言外之意就是，美国提出的条件中国必须认真考虑。中国不要咄咄逼人，即便能够迫使美国“投降”，中国也别想那么容易坐收成果。更何况，实在不行，他们还可以选择“孤注一掷、战略冒险”。 【相关话题】 第7639期－土耳其似乎成了叙利亚的“新主人”，而俄罗斯和伊朗则“蹲在门口”，眼巴巴地等待“进屋”的邀请（2024-12-19） 声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。
January 4, 2025, Saturday, Issue 1148 The "Mahjong Table" for the Subsequent Development of the Syrian Situation is Basically Set [Media Reports] On January 3, according to Belarusian media reports, the country's leader Lukashenko is preparing to visit China before the Belarusian presidential election. The Belarusian presidential election is scheduled for January 26. On January 3, French Foreign Minister Barrot and German Foreign Minister Baerbock visited Damascus, the capital of Syria, and met with the leadership of the Syrian transitional government. [Summary of Discussion] ●The EU's eagerness to intervene in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation is closely related to Turkey's "clever maneuvers" On January 3, French Foreign Minister Barrot and German Foreign Minister Baerbock visited Damascus, the capital of Syria, and met with the leadership of the Syrian transitional government. This news report is a "news awaiting development". In the discussion on December 22, 2024, we focused on the topic of "Reviewing the 'Mediterranean Plan' to Discuss Why the EU is so Actively Involved in the Subsequent Development of the Syrian Situation". It was pointed out that the EU's urgency to intervene in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, which is known as the "Crossroads of the Middle East", is partly driven by its intention to establish an energy pipeline that is first and foremost independent of US control, amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, tightening US control over European energy, high energy prices straining European manufacturing, and the severance of major Russian energy pipelines to Europe. On December 18, 2024, we mentioned that "the EU, which has many ideas about the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, finally intervened at Turkey's 'invitation'". From December 18, 2024, to January 3, 2025, the foreign ministers of Germany and France, two core countries representing the "old Europe" and serving as the "political flag bearers" of the EU, visited Syria. This happened within just half a month, demonstrating the EU's eagerness to intervene in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation. Why is this the case? In our view, it is closely related to Turkey's "maneuvers". We have noticed that recently, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova responded to German Foreign Minister Baerbock's statement about Russian bases in Syria. Zakharova reminded Baerbock that the United States also has bases in Germany. Similarly, in recent days, the United Nations Human Rights Council (controlled by the EU) condemned Israel for attacking hospitals in Gaza, turning them into "death traps" and disrupting the medical system. Since the Assad regime was overthrown, Russia has always wanted to retain its two military bases in Syria. However, in the eyes of the EU, the Russian troops, which originally had a "legal status", have now become "illegal immigrants". What qualifications do they have to continue retaining military bases in Syria? In our view, this may be partly due to Turkey's strategy of courting Iran, especially Russia, to stimulate the EU and prompt it to intervene in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation as soon as possible. Once the EU intervenes, Turkey will naturally have more leverage to balance the United States and Israel. This is one of the main reasons why the United Nations Human Rights Council (controlled by the EU) condemned the series of atrocities committed by the Israeli army against hospitals in Gaza recently. If the EU wants to establish a foothold in Syria in the future, it must maintain good relations with Syria's neighboring countries, especially the major countries in the Middle East. Obviously, this condemnation is conducive to strengthening the relationship between the EU and Middle Eastern countries. Of course, the German foreign minister's remarks, on the surface, are intended for Russia, but they are also a message to Turkey. The implication is: since Turkey is eager to "host" the "guests", shouldn't Turkey clean up the "trash" like the Russian military bases before the "guests" enter the "house" (Syria)? Otherwise, where is the sincerity? ●Russia Should Demonstrate Sincerity in Inviting the International Community to Assist in Stabilizing Belarus through Concrete Actions It is not difficult to see from the German foreign minister's remarks the enormous strategic losses Russia has suffered since the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria. At least at this stage, whether it is the issue of returning to Syria (once again, this approach to returning is incorrect. Including Iran, the correct approach to returning should focus on effectively restarting the SCO, working substantively with China to stabilize Central Asia, stabilize South Asia, and then use Iran as a strategic fulcrum to push the front line of the battle with the West to Syria) or the "Turkish Stream", Russia must follow Turkey's lead. Turkey has transformed from Russia's "mistress" to a "formidable lady" that Russia cannot afford to offend. Russia's losses naturally put pressure on Belarus, which may be the main reason why Belarus announced that its President Lukashenko will make an urgent visit to China before the presidential election on January 26. In our view, Lukashenko's visit may be to seek some kind of commitment from China. As for what the possible content might be, we need to continue observing the subsequent development of the situation. For example, another joint military exercise between China and Belarus could be held, but what would that achieve? After all, there is Russia between China and Belarus. Unless Russia publicly invites China to "embrace" Belarus, this "child of Russia". However, the invitation must be sincere, and this sincerity cannot just remain at the verbal and theoretical level (for example, the so-called Russia's intention to resolve historical issues with China). There must be actions, such as substantively promoting the process of Sino-Russian cooperation to stabilize Central Asia and South Asia; substantively promoting the "first two things" and the "second two things"; signing relevant agreements with Iran to provide nuclear safety guarantees and substantively promoting the anti-imperialist and anti-hegemonic movement in the Middle East to reach a new climax, and so on. Speaking of stabilizing Central Asia, it is worth mentioning that recently, Kazakhstan's President Tokayev's latest remarks on China have attracted attention from all parties. President Tokayev of Kazakhstan stated that there are no differences between Kazakhstan and China. In our view, President Tokayev's "supplementary" remark that "there are no differences between Kazakhstan and China" refers to the construction of the "China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway" project. Due to Kazakhstan's interests being partially compensated, Russia's attitude being relatively clear, and the importance of China to Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan has acted with a broad view, responding to the call to send troops to Serbia to assist in maintaining stability under the name of the SCO, and after the situation in Serbia stabilized, added the remark that "there are no differences between Kazakhstan and China". It is worth noting that although Kazakhstan is large, Central Asia is even larger. From the perspective of the international community, it is necessary to take into account the interests of all Central Asian countries as much as possible. Inevitably, some differences will arise with Kazakhstan, but these differences can be resolved through consultation and development. Kazakhstan needs to understand this from the perspective of its own long-term interests and the long-term interests of Central Asia. ●It cannot be ruled out that they intend to stir up the topic of "the US may be forced to make a deal with China, and further acknowledge that the future world should be led by China," in order to provoke intervention from various parties. On January 3rd, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarked on what is expected to be his final overseas trip during his tenure, visiting South Korea, Japan, and France. In our view, the US attaches great importance to the South China Sea issue, given its historical rise as a global power after defeating Spain in the Caribbean. Some American scholars and think tanks draw parallels between the South China Sea and China, and the Caribbean and the US in the past. After the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown, it is evident to anyone that the subsequent development of the situation in Syria is highly detrimental to the long-term interests of the US. How could they allow the Middle East, a key region in their global strategy, to descend into a chaotic situation where multiple powers compete for influence? At this stage, at Turkey's open invitation, the EU has become involved in the subsequent development of the situation in Syria, which is clearly detrimental for the incoming Trump administration. For the outgoing Biden administration, which is pushing the Middle East situation towards greater complexity and chaos, this is not entirely a good thing either. At least, the Biden administration needs to "make a move" in response to the new influence that the EU's involvement in the subsequent development of the situation in Syria may have on the Middle East, such as the EU's condemnation of Israel. Even from the perspective of its own small group's interests, the Biden administration also needs to exert some influence on how the US will engage in future global situational evolutions with China, Europe, and Russia. "Making a move" naturally cannot be too hasty, otherwise it might lead to Europe and Russia drawing closer, creating a difficult-to-manage situation. It is worth mentioning that in the past, France, Britain, and other old imperialist powers intervened in the war between the US and Spain out of fear of the rise of the US as a new imperialist power, forcing the US and Spain to ultimately reach a peace agreement. Therefore, Blinken's final overseas visit, which includes stops in Japan, South Korea, and France, cannot be ruled out as an attempt to stir up the topic of "the US may be forced to make a deal with China, and further acknowledge that the future world should be led by China," in order to provoke intervention from parties that still have vested interests in the old order, including Russia. Of course, while the US is doing this to exert pressure on and even mobilize parties other than China, it is also a strategic bluff against China. The implied message is that China must seriously consider the conditions put forward by the US. China should not be aggressive, and even if it can force the US to "surrender," it will not be easy for China to reap the benefits. Furthermore, if all else fails, they can still choose to "take desperate measures and engage in strategic risks." [Related Topics] Issue 7639 - Turkey seems to have become the "new master" of Syria, while Russia and Iran are "squatting at the door," eagerly awaiting an invitation to "enter the house" (December 19, 2024)
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