2025年1月2日，星期四，第1146期

东方点评，叙过渡政府外长首次外访选择沙特

【媒体报道】

1月1日，巴基斯坦和印度交换了各自的核设施清单，这是禁止它们攻击对方核设施的双边协议中的部分内容。双方每年1月的第一天交换这种清单。报道称，巴基斯坦外交部1日在一份声明中说，清单是通过驻伊斯兰堡和新德里的外交官同时交出的。这种交换是两国1988年12月签署的一项禁止攻击对方的核装置和核设施协议中的一部分内容。该协议于1991年1月开始实施。

1月1日，叙利亚过渡政府外交部长阿萨德·哈桑·希巴尼抵达沙特阿拉伯进行首次外访。

【讨论纪要】

●美国国内这种高压、紧张气氛，很可能成为导致全球局势出现爆炸性新闻的“导火索”

2025年1月1日是元旦，但新的一年世界仍不太平。

乌克兰方向。种种迹象表明，俄罗斯总统普京就俄罗斯国内稳定问题开始警觉。在俄乌战争仍在继续，乌军（北约）军事入侵库尔斯克地区问题仍未彻底解决，俄罗斯仍在被动等待特朗普上台，尤其是叙利亚阿萨德政权被颠覆后，尽管是不是在战场上有胜利消息传来，但俄罗斯的总体战略处境显得愈发凶险，无论是拜登政府出于战略冒险全面推动乌克兰局势迅速升级，甚至彻底失控也好，还是在俄罗斯被动等待过程中，白俄罗斯“出事”也罢。我们仍然担心，西方邪恶势力将颠覆叙利亚阿萨德政权的模式拷贝到白俄罗斯，尤其是俄罗斯。而在俄罗斯历史上，不乏失败的国家领导人自裁的先例。1855年2月18日，沙皇尼古拉一世在冬宫服毒自杀，原因是沙皇尼古拉一世领导的俄国在克里米亚战争中惨败。

中东方向，以色列在美国的支持下，强化对胡塞武装的军事打击，意图为争取“大胜”做最后努力。值得一提的是，由于胡塞武装犀利的反击，以色列不胜烦扰，以色列国内对内塔尼亚胡的压力再次来袭，以至于以色列总理内塔尼亚胡做完前列腺切除手术后匆忙离院，前往议会投出“决定性一票”。

美国国内。1月1日，路易斯安那州新奥尔良市发生的汽车冲撞人群事件，该事件目前已造成至少15人死亡、35人受伤。同样在1月1日，特斯拉赛博越野旅行车在著名的特朗普大厦门口起火。

美国企业家埃隆·马斯克认为，拉斯维加斯的特斯拉赛博越野旅行车爆炸事件可能是恐怖袭击。他还表示，这起事件可能与新奥尔良汽车冲撞人群案有关，因为涉事两车均为通过汽车共享平台Turo租用。

尽管到目前为止，事件仍在调查中，且暂时没有直接证据证明两起事件的确是恐怖袭击事件，但这两起事件充分展示出美国国内正处于某种高压状态之中，可以说，一点就燃。拜登和特朗普双方都有意利用两起事件及其后续发展。在我们的观察与评估中，未来18天（到2025年1月20日），这种高压、紧张气氛很可能成为导致全球局势出现爆炸性新闻的“导火索”。

●如果有一天中国096级战略导弹核潜艇正式公布，或意味着上面三个战略方向中至少有一个局势已处于濒临彻底失控

我们注意到1月1日，巴基斯坦和印度交换各自核设施清单的新闻报道。

众所周知，以联合国五大常任理事国为例，尽管围绕国际局势的具体演化，五常中阵营划分泾渭分明，彼此关系紧张，但在重要，尤其是涉核的火箭、洲际导弹发射问题上都有相互通报的惯例。巴基斯坦和印度之间换各自核设施清单的行为也是一种惯例，持续多年。但问题在于，为什么在今年诸多媒体开始高调公开报道此事。

此前，巴基斯坦对印度发出示好信号，希望与印度展开建设性接触与对话，以解决包括克什米尔争端在内的所有悬而未决的问题。而印度不仅对中国和巴基斯坦联合举行的“勇士-8”联合反恐演习的反应较为低调，同时也释放出愿意改善中印双边关系的信号。

在我们的观察与评估中，印度方面恐怕从当前乌克兰、叙利亚局势的后续发展中，尤其是韩国政坛乱象（注：一旦拜登“摔杯为号”，非传统安全层面，韩国可能因此爆发金融危机），以及日本首相石破茂急切希望访华中，看到了巨大的危险。而这种危险最为现实，就在眼前的指向就在非传统安全层面，也就是印度很可能爆发经济，尤其是金融危机。

2024年已过，尽管印度没有在2024年爆发经济危机，尤其是金融危机，但并不代表危险就此消失。反而随着时间进入2025年，这种威胁在不断累积。目前印度股市非常危险，这恐怕是印度释放欲缓和中印关系的主要原因之一。

在印度看来，美国和中国之间，围绕贸易战你来我往的一系列动作，迫使很多资金出于避险因素进一步流入中国，而这些资金中相当一部分的流出地就是印度。此外，印度制造业所在产业链的源头都在中国，在印度国内经济、金融已出现巨大不确定性风险的情况下，如果不能改善与中国之间的双边关系，一旦爆发经济，尤其是金融危机，后果将是灾难性的。

大家在未来一段时间，可将观察到重点锁定以下几个方面：第一，中东方向。比如，拜登政府是否直接对伊朗进行军事打击；第二，乌克兰方向。如果俄罗斯和西方就乌克兰问题谈不妥，乌克兰问题可能因此全面升级，甚至彻底失控；第三，西太方向，拜登政府战略冒险、孤注一掷或可能在朝鲜半岛和南海悍然制造地区不稳定事件。如果有一天，中国的096级战略导弹核潜艇正式公布，或意味着上面三个战略方向中至少有一个已经处于濒临局势彻底失控的境地。

●叙利亚过渡政府高官急于首访沙特的意图是什么？

我们注意到，1月1日，叙利亚过渡政府外交部长希巴尼抵达沙特阿拉伯进行首次外访的新闻报道。

叙利亚过渡政府外交部长希巴尼将首访放在沙特，多少让一些网友感到意外。在这些网友看来，亲土耳其的叙利亚过渡政府，应该将首访选在土耳其或欧盟。不过在我们看来，叙利亚过渡政府将首访选在沙特，反而说明他们更看重的是西方。

从叙利亚过渡政府要与俄罗斯的敌人乌克兰构建战略伙伴关系一事不难看出，在叙利亚局势后续发展中，到目前为止，仍然热切希望驻叙军事基地继续存留的俄罗斯的处境很尴尬。而已被禁止飞跃叙利亚领空的伊朗，叙利亚过渡政府更是早就不拿其当回事儿。这是我们认为叙利亚过渡政府更亲西方的主要原因之一。

“沙姆武装组织”本身就是极端组织，而且是伊斯兰教原教旨主义者。“沙姆武装组织”内部有很多西方国家的雇佣军，在成为叙利亚过渡政府前，“沙姆武装组织”到处烧杀抢掠，名声极坏，与土匪无异。在我们看来，“沙姆武装组织”根本不可能有所谓“全球视野”，所以，在叙利亚过渡政府外交部长希巴尼将首访放在沙特的背后，恐怕有某些具有全球战略视角的势力在其背后“支招”。

所谓“某些具有全球战略视角的势力在其背后‘支招’”的意思在于，在“支招者”眼中，叙利亚过渡政府还是要和邻居们搞好关系的，尤其是沙特，因为中国非常重视沙特（注：国际社会不急于介入叙利亚局势的后续发展，而是在叙利亚周边，比如和沙特这样的国家搞好关系，间接影响叙利亚局势，甚至中东局势的后续发展），叙利亚临时政府不能什么什么都指望“支招者”供给。

值得一提的是，“支招者”为叙利亚过渡政府支的这招还有非常阴险的一面，那就是让叙利亚过渡政府“打扮成”逊尼派穆斯林，通过摆出一副“什叶派抵抗之弧在叙利亚的确被彻底戒断”的姿态，进一步打击伊朗国家威信、宗教威望的同时，还不忘瞄着逊尼派穆斯林与什叶派穆斯林之间的“历史伤疤”（注：尽管伊朗和沙特在中国的全面推动下实现政治和解，但逊尼派穆斯林和什叶派穆斯林之间的恩怨乃冰冻三尺非一日之寒，不是一时之间就能彻底化解的）挑拨离间。

就到底谁是“支招者”这一问题，在我们的观察与评估中，拜登政府应该被排除在外，目前拜登政府仍然寄希望于通过挑动伊朗和以色列两国矛盾，将中东局势向美军有可能被拖下水的方向推动。对特朗普而言，这种有利于中东局势趋稳的现象是其乐见的。但心思最重的恐怕是土耳其，以及土耳其力邀进入叙利亚局势后续发展的欧盟。土耳其深知，仅靠自己恐怕很难推动叙利亚过渡政府和沙特之间改善关系。对沙特而言，其是中东地区的当事国，自然不希望中东生乱生战，所以有这样的接触也不足为奇。或者说，在叙利亚局势后续发展过程中，沙特和欧盟之间，利益似乎出现某种交集。

【相关话题】

第7617期－为什么说，在叙利亚阿萨德政权瞬间倾覆后，最为恐惧的是俄罗斯的另一“盟友”——白俄罗斯？（2024-12-12）
第7647期－透过简单回顾“地中海计划”，小谈为什么欧盟如此积极地介入叙利亚局势的后续发展（2024-12-22）
第7648期－在未来不到30天，方方面面，尤其是俄伊两国，千万不要低估为博取一己私利四处煽风点火、几近疯狂的拜登与“拜登们”的巨大破坏力（2024-12-22）

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

January 2, 2025, Thursday, Issue 1147

Oriental Commentary: Syria's Transitional Government's Foreign Minister Chooses Saudi Arabia for First Foreign Visit

[Media Reports]

On January 1, Pakistan and India exchanged their respective lists of nuclear facilities, as part of a bilateral agreement prohibiting them from attacking each other's nuclear facilities. The two sides exchange such lists on the first day of January every year. According to reports, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry stated in a statement on the 1st that the lists were simultaneously handed over through diplomats stationed in Islamabad and New Delhi. This exchange is part of an agreement signed by the two countries in December 1988, prohibiting attacks on each other's nuclear devices and facilities. The agreement came into effect in January 1991.

On January 1, Assad Hassan Hibani, the Foreign Minister of the Syrian Transitional Government, arrived in Saudi Arabia for his first foreign visit.

[Discussion Minutes]

● The high-pressure and tense atmosphere in the United States may become the "trigger" for explosive news in the global situation.

January 1, 2025, marks the beginning of a new year, but the world remains unrest.

In the Ukraine direction, various signs indicate that Russian President Putin has become vigilant about domestic stability in Russia. With the Russia-Ukraine war still ongoing, the issue of Ukrainian (NATO) military incursion into the Kursk region unresolved, and Russia still passively waiting for Trump to take office, especially after the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, despite occasional victory news on the battlefield, Russia's overall strategic situation appears increasingly precarious. Whether it's the Biden administration pushing for a rapid escalation of the Ukraine situation, even to the point of complete loss of control out of strategic adventure, or if Belarus "encounters problems" while Russia is passively waiting, we remain concerned that the Western evil forces will replicate the model of overthrowing the Assad regime in Syria to Belarus, and even Russia. In Russian history, there have been precedents of failed national leaders committing suicide. On February 18, 1855, Tsar Nicholas I committed suicide by poison in the Winter Palace due to Russia's disastrous defeat in the Crimean War under his leadership.

In the Middle East direction, with US support, Israel is intensifying its military strikes against the Houthi militia, aiming for a final push towards a "decisive victory." It's worth noting that due to the Houthis' sharp counterattacks, Israel is becoming increasingly troubled, and the pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu within the country has resurfaced, to the extent that he hurriedly left the hospital after prostate surgery to cast a "decisive vote" in parliament.

Within the United States, a car ramming incident occurred in New Orleans, Louisiana, on January 1, resulting in at least 15 deaths and 35 injuries. Also on January 1, a Tesla Cybertruck caught fire in front of the famous Trump Tower.

US entrepreneur Elon Musk believes that the explosion of the Tesla Cybertruck in Las Vegas may be a terrorist attack. He also suggested that this incident could be related to the car ramming incident in New Orleans, as both vehicles involved were rented through the car-sharing platform Turo.

Although the incidents are still under investigation and there is no direct evidence so far to prove that they are indeed terrorist attacks, these two incidents fully demonstrate that the United States is currently in a state of high tension, which can be ignited at any moment. Both Biden and Trump are intent on utilizing these two incidents and their subsequent developments. In our observation and assessment, this high-pressure and tense atmosphere is likely to become the "trigger" for explosive news in the global situation in the next 18 days (until January 20, 2025).

● If China officially announces the Type 096 strategic nuclear submarine one day, it may mean that at least one of the three strategic directions mentioned above is on the brink of complete loss of control.

We noticed news reports on January 1 about Pakistan and India exchanging their respective lists of nuclear facilities.

As we all know, taking the five permanent members of the United Nations as an example, despite the clear division of camps and tense relations among the five permanent members over the specific evolution of the international situation, they have a custom of mutual notification on important issues, especially those related to nuclear rockets and intercontinental missile launches. The exchange of nuclear facility lists between Pakistan and India is also a custom that has been ongoing for many years. However, the question is why many media outlets have started to report on this matter prominently this year.

Previously, Pakistan sent a signal of goodwill to India, hoping to engage in constructive contacts and dialogues to resolve all outstanding issues, including the Kashmir dispute. India not only responded low-key to the "Warrior-8" joint counter-terrorism exercise held by China and Pakistan but also signaled its willingness to improve bilateral relations with China.

In our observation and assessment, India may have seen significant danger from the subsequent developments of the situations in Ukraine and Syria, especially the chaos in South Korean politics (note: once Biden "gives the signal," South Korea may experience a financial crisis at the non-traditional security level), and Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba's eagerness to visit China. This danger is most realistic and imminent, pointing to the non-traditional security level, that is, India may experience an economic, and particularly a financial crisis.

The year 2024 has passed, and although India did not experience an economic crisis, especially a financial crisis, in 2024, it does not mean that the danger has disappeared. Instead, as we enter 2025, this threat continues to accumulate. Currently, the Indian stock market is in a precarious situation, which is probably one of the main reasons why India is signaling a desire to ease relations with China.

From India's perspective, the series of actions between the United States and China around the trade war have forced many funds to flow into China for hedging purposes, and a considerable portion of these funds originated from India. Furthermore, the source of the industrial chains in which India's manufacturing sector is located is in China. Given the enormous uncertainties and risks in India's domestic economy and finance, if it cannot improve its bilateral relations with China, the consequences of an economic, especially a financial crisis, once it erupts, will be catastrophic.

In the coming period, everyone can focus their observations on the following aspects: First, the Middle East direction. For example, whether the Biden administration will directly carry out military strikes against Iran; Second, the Ukraine direction. If Russia and the West fail to reach an agreement on the Ukraine issue, the situation in Ukraine may escalate comprehensively and even spiral out of control; Third, the Western Pacific direction, where the Biden administration may take strategic risks and desperately create regional instability in the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea. If China officially announces the Type 096 strategic nuclear submarine one day, it may mean that at least one of the three strategic directions mentioned above is already on the brink of complete loss of control.

● What is the intention behind the Syrian Transitional Government's senior official's eager first visit to Saudi Arabia?

We have noticed news reports stating that on January 1st, the Foreign Minister of the Syrian Transitional Government, Hibani, arrived in Saudi Arabia for his first overseas visit.

Hibani, the Foreign Minister of the Syrian Transitional Government, choosing Saudi Arabia for his first visit has somewhat surprised some netizens. In the view of these netizens, the Syrian Transitional Government, which is pro-Turkey, should have chosen Turkey or the EU for its first visit. However, in our opinion, the fact that the Syrian Transitional Government chose Saudi Arabia for its first visit instead indicates that they place greater importance on the West.

It is not difficult to see from the Syrian Transitional Government's intention to establish a strategic partnership with Ukraine, an enemy of Russia, that in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, Russia, which still eagerly hopes to maintain its military base in Syria, is in an awkward position. Iran, which has been prohibited from flying over Syrian airspace, is no longer considered significant by the Syrian Transitional Government. This is one of the main reasons we believe that the Syrian Transitional Government is more pro-Western.

"The Sham Armed Organization" is itself an extremist group and consists of Islamic fundamentalists. There are many mercenaries from Western countries within "The Sham Armed Organization". Before becoming the Syrian Transitional Government, "The Sham Armed Organization" engaged in looting and pillaging everywhere, had a very bad reputation, and was no different from bandits. In our opinion, "The Sham Armed Organization" simply cannot have a so-called "global vision". Therefore, behind the Syrian Transitional Government's Foreign Minister Hibani choosing Saudi Arabia for his first visit, there may be certain forces with a global strategic perspective "advising" them.

The so-called "certain forces with a global strategic perspective 'advising' them" means that in the eyes of the "advisors", the Syrian Transitional Government still needs to maintain good relations with its neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia. Because China attaches great importance to Saudi Arabia (Note: The international community is not in a hurry to intervene in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, but instead seeks to indirectly influence the Syrian situation, and even the subsequent development of the Middle East situation, by maintaining good relations with countries like Saudi Arabia around Syria), the Syrian Transitional Government cannot rely solely on the "advisors" for support.

It is worth mentioning that there is also a very insidious aspect to the "advice" given by the "advisors" to the Syrian Transitional Government. That is to have the Syrian Transitional Government "dress up" as Sunni Muslims, and by presenting a posture of "completely severing the Shia resistance axis in Syria", they further damage Iran's national prestige and religious authority, while also not forgetting to exploit the "historical scars" between Sunni and Shia Muslims (Note: Although Iran and Saudi Arabia have achieved political reconciliation under China's comprehensive promotion, the grievances between Sunni and Shia Muslims are deeply ingrained and cannot be completely resolved overnight) to sow discord.

Regarding the question of who the "advisors" are, in our observation and assessment, the Biden administration should be excluded. The Biden administration still hopes to push the Middle East situation in a direction where the US military may be dragged into the water by stirring up conflicts between Iran and Israel. For Trump, this phenomenon, which is conducive to stabilizing the Middle East situation, is welcome. However, it is probably Turkey and the EU, which Turkey has invited to participate in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, that are the most concerned. Turkey is well aware that it is difficult to promote improved relations between the Syrian Transitional Government and Saudi Arabia on its own. For Saudi Arabia, as a party in the Middle East region, it naturally does not want chaos and war in the Middle East, so such contact is not surprising. Or it could be said that in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, there seems to be some convergence of interests between Saudi Arabia and the EU.

[Related Topics]

Issue 7617 - Why is it said that after the sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the most fearful is Russia's other "ally" - Belarus? (2024-12-12)
Issue 7647 - Through a brief review of the "Mediterranean Plan", a brief discussion on why the EU is so actively involved in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation (2024-12-22)
Issue 7648 - In the next 30 days, all aspects, especially Russia and Iran, should not underestimate the enormous destructive power of Biden and the "Bidens", who are almost crazy in their attempts to stir up trouble for their own benefit (2024-12-22)

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

原文作者公众号：

广州市贯日翻译服务有限公司为东方时评-衍射传媒/衍射咨询提供翻译支持

翻译请联系http://www.en-ch.com/chcontact.htm

手机微信13924166640

广州市越秀区环市东路世界贸易中心大厦南塔24楼 020-86266990