2024年12月30日，星期一，第1144期

美国自肯尼迪时代以来的首次“斯普特尼克时刻”——中国公布两款新型先进战机如何起到“诛心”作用？

【媒体报道】

12月27日，一名消息人士称，美国“萨德”反导系统首次在以色列参与了弹道导弹拦截。今年10月，美国在以色列境内部署首套“萨德”系统。该消息人士还称，在过去24小时内，“萨德”反导系统被用于拦截胡塞武装从也门向以色列发射的弹道导弹，并将通过分析决定拦截是否成功。对此，五角大楼没有立即回应置评请求。而以色列国防军表示，一枚弹道导弹被拦截，但未指明是被什么武器拦截。

12月29日，库尔德工人党创始人和精神领袖阿卜杜拉·厄贾兰表示已准备好呼吁和平解决土耳其的库尔德问题。他自1999年以来一直被囚禁在土耳其的一个小岛上。现年76岁的厄贾兰12月29日在土耳其亲库尔德的左翼政党人民平等与民主党的网站上发表声明说：“我已准备好采取必要的积极措施并发出呼吁。”

12月29日，阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫表示，尽管坠机事件的最终调查结果尚未出炉，但“事实”表明，“来自地面的攻击”就是坠机发生的原因。阿利耶夫表示，阿方认为这并非一起蓄意事件，但俄方有意掩盖问题，要求俄方道歉、认错、严惩责任人并承担赔偿。

【讨论纪要】

●无论伊朗内部出现什么问题导致其决策困难，但在外界，伊朗始终被作为一个整体看待

12月27日，外交部发言人毛宁宣布伊朗外长阿拉格奇将访华两天。消息字数虽少，却引起各方关注，因为这是中伊短期内第三次外交接触——12月19日，伊朗副总统扎里夫会见中国大使。两天后，12月21日，哈梅内伊顾问拉里贾尼又见中国大使。伊朗外长将访华则是第三次。值得一提的是，伊朗因目前战略处境险恶选择与中国进行外交接触并不奇怪，奇怪的是短期内如此密集，且明显分为来自伊朗政府和来自伊朗最高精神领袖的“两拨人”。似乎他们就如何与中国进行外交接触，要与中国谈什么，怎么谈，内部意见并不统一。甚至隐隐约约传出类似围绕本次美国总统大选，美国内部恶斗不断的味道。

再次强调，伊朗内部出问题导致决策困难，比如，哈梅内伊尚未解决“接班人”的问题等，我们都可以理解，但在外界看来，伊朗是被作为一个整体看待的。所以，伊朗最终做出什么选择，就要承担何种代价。

●为国际社会其他成员鼓气，更是对西方邪恶势力发出的严厉警告并诛心

12月27日，一名消息人士称，美国“萨德”反导系统自今年10月部署在以色列以来，首次参与弹道导弹拦截。该消息人士还称，在过去24小时内，“萨德”反导系统被用于拦截胡塞武装从也门向以色列发射的弹道导弹，并将通过分析决定拦截是否成功。对此，五角大楼没有立即回应置评请求。而以色列国防军表示，一枚弹道导弹被拦截，但未指明是被什么武器拦截。

对于以上新闻报道，提醒大家注意几个细节：

第一，这是美国“萨德”反导系统自今年10月部署在以色列以来，首次参与弹道导弹拦截。而在此前我们的评估中，部署在以色列的“萨德”反导系统很可能用于防御以色列的核设施，或者储存、转运战术核武器的重要军事基地；

第二，这次“萨德”系统拦截的是弹道导弹。而在此前的12月25日，胡塞武装发表声明称，该武装使用“巴勒斯坦-2”型高超音速弹道导弹，成功打击了以色列特拉维夫雅法地区的一个军事目标。我们不禁要问，如果这次来袭的导弹是“巴勒斯坦-2”型高超音速弹道导弹，“萨德”系统还能拦截吗？

1. 无论是弹道导弹还是高超音速弹道导弹，导航和坐标胡塞武装是从何获得的？说不定胡塞武装真的捡到了塞着“用打印机打印着以军重要目标经纬坐标”小纸条的什么“漂流瓶”。在我们看来，导航和坐标俄罗斯可以给，自不必说，但问题是，是否还有别人？

答案恐怕是有。也许大家还记得，上次中国在海南岛发射“DF-31AG”，虽然朝向南太，但剑指方向却涵盖整个地中海（包括欧、美本土，展示“掏洞打所”的能力，尤其是决心），就是冲着当时的中东形势去的。

值得一提的是，当时恰逢俄罗斯萨尔马特洲际弹道导弹发射失败，使得外界对俄罗斯核威慑有效性，不仅在能力上，更在使用这种能力的决心上投去进一步怀疑的目光，以至于近段时间西方媒体、智库拼命鼓噪“俄罗斯核威慑无用论”。所以，发射“DF-31AG”也有为俄罗斯“救场”，为国际社会发声之意。有趣的是，面对发射“DF-31AG”，第一时间西方的反应是蒙圈的，但在第二时间，西方媒体开始集中炒作这不是“DF-31AG”，而是更先进的“DF-41”。显然，西方在尽一切可能削弱西方社会对中国战略核威慑能力，或者国际社会战略核威慑能力的担忧和焦虑。除了努力营造“中古最先进的战略武器不过如此”之氛围外，更在暗示，“DF-41”数量有限（“DF-31AG”量大管饱）。

如果说那一次就“DF-31AG”发射，西方媒体还能勉强“洗地”，但对近几天以西飞、沈飞两款新一代战机、076型两栖攻击舰“四川舰”下水，空警-3000等为标志的中国军工、科技的高调宣传、新锐装备的密集展示、服役恐怕让西方再次深刻感受到了“斯普特尼克时刻”。

所谓“斯普特尼克时刻”指的是1957年，苏联成功发射全球首颗人造卫星“斯普特尼克一号”，这让美国社会产生恐慌性的危机感。从而引发整个西方世界对到底是社会主义制度优越还是资本主义制度优越展开空前大讨论，且在这种大讨论中出现严重内部分歧甚至分裂。可以说，美国自肯尼迪时代以来，从没有今天遇到过今天如此被动的境地。这种张扬的，在光天化日之下的公开展示，表达了国际社会不仅有能力，更有动用能力的决心，也表达了对美帝世界霸权的蔑视。

需要补充的是，对于中国人来说，12月24日没必要过什么西方的圣诞节，反倒是要铭记抗美援朝长津湖战机的伟大胜利。

1950年11月27日至12月24日，中美两支王牌军在朝鲜长津湖地区展开了一场激战。美军包括海军陆战队第1师（简称陆战一师）和第3、第7步兵师，以及韩国第1军团，约10万人；攻击这支部队的是志愿军第9兵团，由20军、26军和27军组成，近15万人。在零下30—40摄氏度的严寒中苦斗20天后，美军残部在7艘航空母舰的掩护下，利用海路脱离战场，这也意味着“联合国军”全部被逐出朝鲜东北部。

此外，12月26日是毛泽东主席诞辰131周年纪念日。12月26日，西飞、沈飞同时高调展示中国新型战机，12月27日，076型两栖攻击舰“四川舰”下水既是伟大人民领袖毛主席的致敬，为国际社会其他成员鼓气，更是对西方邪恶势力发出的严厉警告和诛心。

说起为国际社会其他成员鼓气这件事儿，包括中国军方订购100万台无人机消息在内，我们想要再次强调的是，如果俄罗斯和伊朗还是老样子，对我们而言，该给的战略策应仍然会给，但不该给的战略策应要求也得不到。如果俄罗斯和伊朗寻思着要变一变，那我们就可以在诸如“订购100万台无人机”的问题上“漏一漏”。如果西方邪恶势力不服气，要掀桌子，那就把“订购100万台无人机”落实并将其用到台湾海峡去，让他们亲眼看看什么叫“地狱景观”！总而言之，俄罗斯和伊朗虽然战略决策再次，甚至连续出现失误，但仍有机会。由于叙利亚国内形势的转变，我们原本预期的运动陷入低潮，国际社会各成员要坚定信心，西方也不要因此太过得意。

在我们看来，这次爆兵与2015“年七月流火，八月未央”有异曲同工之妙——以战止战，上兵伐谋，不战而屈人之兵。当然，如果俄罗斯和伊朗在这一过程中再次承受更大的战略压力，我们的解释仍然还是那句“如有雷同，纯属巧合”。

值得一提的是，近期访华的日本外相态度很好，恐怕也是看到了中国实力今天的强大，显然，日本并不想充当美国人的炮灰。所以，即便拜登政府疯狂到想要在台湾问题上搞事情，日本人也未必敢跟。所以，在上一次讨论中，拜登政府虽然在“战略风险系数最高”的西太方向也准备好了“雷管”，但依然将几个主要可能的切入点，如：南海问题，台湾问题和朝鲜半岛问题，按风险系数高低分为三六九等——南海问题风险最低，台湾问题风险最高，朝鲜半岛问题介于二者之间。当然，风险系数只是相对而言。比如，在南海问题上，一旦美帝处理不好，就可能复刻当年美帝在加勒比海打败西班牙而一战崛起的那一幕，只不过，地点今天换到了南海，当年的西班牙成了今天的美帝。

●俄罗斯距离实质性调整阿富汗政策向有利于国际社会的方向又迈出一步

12月29日，俄罗斯总统普京签署了一项法律，允许将“阿富汗塔利班”和“沙姆解放组织”从恐怖组织名单中删除。

俄罗斯显然要送给叙利亚新政府一份“新年礼物”，但从12月30日“沙姆解放武装”领导人表示将宣布解散该武装的情况来看，似乎他们并不领情。而对于将“阿富汗塔利班”从恐怖组织名单中删除一事，在我们看来，虽然这是一份“迟到的礼物”，但总体上我们对此仍表示欢迎。这意味着俄罗斯距离实质性调整阿富汗政策向有利于国际社会的方向又迈出一步。俄方的变化对中亚地区的稳定很快产生了积极影响。或者说，我们可以将俄方的这一积极变化看作俄罗斯协助国际社会疏通“南亚通道”的具体表现。

值得一提的是，发生在巴基斯坦和阿富汗临时政府之间的奇怪交火事件让我们想起了国际社会全力促成沙特和伊朗政治和解后，伊朗和巴基斯坦之间曾发生的奇怪交火事件。所以，在巴基斯坦和阿富汗临时政府之间发生类似奇怪交火恐的背后，恐怕是双方唱的一出“双簧”，大家心照不宣的打击的是对方境内的西方或印度支持的“恐怖分子”。

●西方很可能借阿克套空难事件后续发展，在俄罗斯内部诱发类似“红场事件”那样的大清洗运动

在今天讨论的最后，我们想要就阿克套空难事件的后续发展做一些补充。

我们注意到在阿克套空难事件后，阿塞拜疆总统有关“俄方有意掩盖，要求其认错、严惩、赔偿、追责”的相关表态。

形式的发展正如我们所预期的那样，越来越像1983年大韩民航007航班被苏联击落事件。尽管俄罗斯总统普京已经道歉，但阿塞拜疆似乎依旧不依不饶。由于阿塞拜疆和哈萨克斯坦都是独联体成员，所以，这件事的后续发展已经恶化了俄罗斯与独联体国家之间的双边关系。

此外，值得俄罗斯决策层高度警惕的是，从阿塞拜疆总统口中“认错、严惩、赔偿、追责”的言论，尤其是要“追责”的言论观察，西方很可能借阿克套空难事件后续发展，在俄罗斯内部诱发类似1987年“红场事件”那样的大清洗运动。值得一提的是，在2020年伊朗击落乌克兰客机事件后，伊朗军方内部就发生了内部清洗，在我们看来，那一次的清洗或与哈梅内伊至今无法解决“继承人”问题以及大权旁落有着千丝万缕的联系。一旦俄罗斯内部，尤其是军事系统，也发生了类似伊朗内部清洗或“红场事件”后内部清洗的事情，很容易在对方恶意造谣、怂恿、挑拨和欺骗等手段的综合影响下酿成萧墙之祸。更何况俄罗斯内部本就有一系列的事情仍然留有尾巴！

最后，仍然提醒，伊朗，尤其是俄罗斯，在西方针对白俄罗斯使出“声东击西”的同时，也要警惕另一种“声东击西”，也就是“声”白俄罗斯，“击”伊朗。如果伊朗政权也被颠覆了，那么俄罗斯在中东的影响力也将被真正意义上被吃得毛干爪净。

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第7655期－再次提醒俄罗斯决策层，务必对西方邪恶势力瞄着白俄罗斯玩“声东击西”保持高度警惕（2024-12-24）
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声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

December 30, 2024, Monday, Issue 1144

America's First "Sputnik Moment" Since the Kennedy Era – How China's Unveiling of Two New Advanced Fighter Jets Serves as a "Psychological Blow"?

[Media Reports]

On December 27, a source revealed that the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system participated in ballistic missile interception in Israel for the first time. The first THAAD system was deployed in Israel by the U.S. in October this year. The source also said that within the past 24 hours, the THAAD anti-missile system was used to intercept ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis from Yemen towards Israel, and analysis would be conducted to determine the success of the interception. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Israel Defense Forces stated that a ballistic missile was intercepted but did not specify what weapon was used.

On December 29, Abdullah Öcalan, the founder and spiritual leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), stated that he was ready to call for a peaceful solution to the Kurdish issue in Turkey. He has been imprisoned on a small Turkish island since 1999. The 76-year-old Öcalan issued a statement on the website of the pro-Kurdish left-wing party in Turkey, the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), on December 29, saying, "I am ready to take the necessary positive steps and issue a call."

On December 29, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that although the final investigation results of the plane crash had not yet been released, the "facts" indicated that an "attack from the ground" was the cause of the crash. Aliyev said that Azerbaijan did not believe it was a deliberate incident but that Russia was intentionally covering up the issue, demanding that Russia apologize, admit fault, severely punish those responsible, and bear compensation.

[Discussion Summary]

● Iran is seen as a whole by the outside world despite its internal decision-making difficulties

On December 27, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning announced that Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian would visit China for two days. Although the announcement was brief, it attracted attention from all parties as it was the third diplomatic contact between China and Iran in a short period – on December 19, Iranian Vice President Zarif met with the Chinese ambassador. Two days later, on December 21, Larijani, an advisor to Khamenei, also met with the Chinese ambassador. The visit by the Iranian foreign minister was the third contact. It is worth noting that it is not surprising for Iran to engage in diplomatic contacts with China due to its precarious strategic situation. What is strange is the intensity of these contacts in such a short period, and they are clearly divided into "two groups" from the Iranian government and from Iran's supreme spiritual leader. It seems that they have differing internal opinions on how to engage in diplomatic contacts with China, what to discuss with China, and how to discuss it. There is even a faint sense of the intense internal strife within the U.S. similar to that surrounding the recent U.S. presidential election.

Once again, we emphasize that we can understand Iran's decision-making difficulties due to internal issues, such as Khamenei's unresolved "successor" issue. However, Iran is seen as a whole by the outside world. Therefore, Iran must bear the consequences of its ultimate choices.

● A stern warning and psychological blow to the evil Western forces, while boosting the morale of other members of the international community

On December 27, a source revealed that the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system, deployed in Israel since October this year, participated in ballistic missile interception for the first time. The source also said that within the past 24 hours, the THAAD anti-missile system was used to intercept ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis from Yemen towards Israel, and analysis would be conducted to determine the success of the interception. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Israel Defense Forces stated that a ballistic missile was intercepted but did not specify what weapon was used.

Regarding the above news report, we remind everyone to pay attention to several details:

First, this is the first time the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system, deployed in Israel since October this year, has participated in ballistic missile interception. In our previous assessment, the THAAD anti-missile system deployed in Israel was likely used to defend Israel's nuclear facilities or important military bases for storing and transporting tactical nuclear weapons.

Second, the THAAD system intercepted a ballistic missile this time. On December 25, the Houthis issued a statement claiming that they successfully struck a military target in the Tel Aviv-Jaffa area of Israel using a "Palestine-2" hypersonic ballistic missile. We cannot help but ask, if the incoming missile this time was a "Palestine-2" hypersonic ballistic missile, could the THAAD system still intercept it?

Third, regardless of whether it was a ballistic missile or a hypersonic ballistic missile, how did the Houthis obtain the navigation and coordinates? Perhaps the Houthis really found some "message in a bottle" with "coordinates of important Israeli military targets printed on a piece of paper" inside. In our view, Russia could provide the navigation and coordinates, which goes without saying. However, the question is, was there anyone else involved?

The answer is probably yes. Perhaps you still remember that when China launched the "DF-31AG" on Hainan Island, although it was aimed southward towards the South Pacific, its sword pointed in the direction covering the entire Mediterranean (including Europe and the U.S. mainland, demonstrating the capability and determination to "dig holes and strike targets"), targeting the situation in the Middle East at that time.

It is worth mentioning that this coincided with the failed launch of Russia's Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which cast further doubt on the effectiveness of Russia's nuclear deterrence, not only in capability but also in the determination to use such capability, to the extent that Western media and think tanks have been frantically promoting the "ineffectiveness of Russia's nuclear deterrence" recently. Therefore, the launch of the "DF-31AG" also had the intention of "saving the situation" for Russia and speaking out for the international community. Interestingly, in response to the launch of the "DF-31AG," Western reactions were confused at first, but soon after, Western media began to collectively claim that it was not the "DF-31AG" but the more advanced "DF-41." Clearly, the West is doing everything possible to weaken concerns and anxiety about China's strategic nuclear deterrence capabilities, or the strategic nuclear deterrence capabilities of the international community. Apart from striving to create an atmosphere that "China's most advanced strategic weapons are just so-so," it also implies that the number of "DF-41s" is limited (while the "DF-31AG" is abundant).

If Western media could still barely "spin" the story of the "DF-31AG" launch last time, the recent high-profile promotion of China's military industry and technology, the dense display of cutting-edge equipment, and the commissioning, exemplified by the two new-generation fighter jets from AVIC I and AVIC Shenyang, the launching of the Type 076 amphibious assault ship "Sichuan Ship," and the Air Warning-3000, have probably made the West once again deeply feel the "Sputnik moment."

The so-called "Sputnik moment" refers to 1957 when the Soviet Union successfully launched the world's first artificial satellite, "Sputnik 1," which caused a panic-inducing crisis in American society. This triggered an unprecedented debate across the Western world about whether the socialist system or the capitalist system was superior, and serious internal divisions and even splits emerged in this debate. It can be said that the United States has not faced such a passive situation since the Kennedy era. This bold and open demonstration in broad daylight expresses that the international community not only has the capability but also the determination to use it, and it also expresses contempt for U.S. imperialist hegemony.

It should be added that for Chinese people, there is no need to celebrate the Western Christmas on December 24; instead, it is a day to remember the great victory of the Changjin Lake campaign during the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea.

From November 27 to December 24, 1950, two ace armies of China and the United States engaged in a fierce battle in the Changjin Lake area of North Korea. The US forces included the 1st Marine Division (abbreviated as the 1st MarDiv), the 3rd and 7th Infantry Divisions, and the South Korean 1st Corps, totaling about 100,000 troops; the attacking force was the Chinese People's Volunteer Army's 9th Corps, consisting of the 20th, 26th, and 27th Armies, with nearly 150,000 troops. After 20 days of bitter fighting in temperatures ranging from -30 to -40 degrees Celsius, the remnants of the US forces, under the cover of seven aircraft carriers, retreated from the battlefield by sea, which also meant that the "UN forces" were completely expelled from northeastern North Korea.

In addition, December 26th marks the 131st anniversary of Chairman Mao Zedong's birth. On December 26th, both Xi'an Aircraft Industry (Group) Company Limited and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation prominently displayed China's new fighter jets. On December 27th, the launching of the Type 076 amphibious assault ship "Sichuan Ship" is not only a tribute to the great leader Mao Zedong, an encouragement to other members of the international community, but also a severe warning and psychological strike against the evil Western forces.

Speaking of encouraging other members of the international community, including the news of China's military ordering one million drones, we want to emphasize again that if Russia and Iran remain the same, we will still provide the strategic support that we should, but requests for strategic support that we shouldn't provide will not be granted. If Russia and Iran seek to make changes, then we can "leak" information on issues such as the "ordering of one million drones." If the evil Western forces are unhappy and want to flip the table, then we will implement the "ordering of one million drones" and use them in the Taiwan Strait, letting them see firsthand what a "hellish landscape" looks like! In summary, despite repeated and even consecutive strategic missteps by Russia and Iran, they still have opportunities. Due to the shift in the domestic situation in Syria, the movement we originally anticipated has fallen into a lull, and members of the international community must remain resolute, while the West should not be too complacent.

In our view, this military buildup bears a striking resemblance to the situation in July and August 2015, when "the heat of July gave way to the unending August" – using war to stop war, the best strategy is to attack through strategy, and to subdue the enemy without fighting. Of course, if Russia and Iran face even greater strategic pressure during this process, our explanation remains the same: "Any similarity is purely coincidental."

It is worth mentioning that the recent visit by the Japanese Foreign Minister was characterized by a positive attitude, likely due to the recognition of China's current strength. Clearly, Japan does not want to be a pawn for the Americans. Therefore, even if the Biden administration is so crazy as to stir up trouble on the Taiwan issue, the Japanese may not dare to follow. Therefore, in our previous discussion, although the Biden administration has prepared "detonators" in the Western Pacific direction, which has the highest "strategic risk coefficient," it still classifies several major potential entry points, such as the South China Sea issue, the Taiwan issue, and the Korean Peninsula issue, into different levels of risk – with the South China Sea issue having the lowest risk, the Taiwan issue the highest, and the Korean Peninsula issue falling somewhere in between. Of course, risk coefficients are relative. For example, regarding the South China Sea issue, if the US handles it poorly, it could replicate the scenario where the US defeated Spain in the Caribbean and rose to prominence, except that the location has shifted to the South China Sea, and Spain of yesteryear has become the US of today.

●Russia Takes Another Step Toward Substantially Adjusting Its Afghanistan Policy in a Direction Beneficial to the International Community

On December 29th, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing the removal of the "Taliban in Afghanistan" and the "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" from the list of terrorist organizations.

Russia appears to be giving the new Syrian government a "New Year's gift." However, judging from the statement made by the leader of "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" on December 30th announcing the dissolution of the group, it seems they are not appreciative. Regarding the removal of the "Taliban in Afghanistan" from the list of terrorist organizations, although it is a "belated gift," we generally welcome it. This means that Russia has taken another step toward substantially adjusting its Afghanistan policy in a direction beneficial to the international community. Russia's change has quickly had a positive impact on the stability of Central Asia. Or, we can view this positive change by Russia as a concrete manifestation of its assistance to the international community in unblocking the "South Asian corridor."

It is worth mentioning that the strange crossfire incident between the interim governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan reminds us of the similar strange crossfire incident between Iran and Pakistan after the international community fully facilitated political reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Therefore, behind the similar strange crossfire incident between the interim governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan, it is likely a "duet" performed by both sides, with the tacit understanding that they are targeting "terrorists" supported by the West or India within each other's territory.

●The West May Exploit the Aftermath of the Aktau Air Disaster to Trigger a Purge Similar to the "Red Square Incident" Within Russia

In the final part of today's discussion, we would like to provide some additional information on the aftermath of the Aktau air disaster.

We have noticed that following the Aktau air disaster, the President of Azerbaijan made statements about "Russia intentionally covering up, demanding an apology, severe punishment, compensation, and accountability."

The situation is developing just as we anticipated, increasingly resembling the 1983 incident where Korean Air Lines Flight 007 was shot down by the Soviet Union. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's apology, Azerbaijan still seems unrelenting. Since both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the subsequent development of this incident has worsened bilateral relations between Russia and CIS countries.

Furthermore, what deserves high vigilance from Russia's decision-makers is that the Azerbaijani President's remarks about "apologizing, severely punishing, compensating, and holding accountable," especially the emphasis on "holding accountable," suggest that the West may exploit the aftermath of the Aktau air disaster to trigger a purge within Russia similar to the 1987 "Red Square Incident." It is worth mentioning that after the 2020 incident where Iran shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, there was an internal purge within the Iranian military. In our view, that purge was intricately linked to the issues that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has yet to resolve regarding his "successor" and the transfer of power. If a similar internal purge or a purge similar to the one after the "Red Square Incident" occurs within Russia, especially within the military system, it could easily lead to internal strife under the influence of malicious rumors, provocation, instigation, and deception by external forces. Moreover, there are still a series of unresolved issues within Russia!

Finally, we remind Iran, and especially Russia, to remain highly vigilant against another form of "diversionary tactic" while the West is using a "diversionary tactic" against Belarus – that is, "diverting attention" with Belarus and "striking" at Iran. If the Iranian regime is also overthrown, then Russia's influence in the Middle East will be completely erased.

[Related Topics]

Issue 7654 - What Signal Does the "US State Department Warning US Citizens to Leave Belarus ASAP" Send as the Biden Administration Has Only 26 Days Left in Office? (December 24, 2024)
Issue 7655 - Reminding the Russian Decision-Makers Again to Maintain High Vigilance Against the West's Evil Forces Playing a "Diversionary Tactic" by Targeting Belarus (December 24, 2024)

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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