2024年12月27日，星期五，第1142期

对比1983年苏军机击落大韩航空007航班及随后美军入侵格林纳达的历史，小谈西方炒作俄军击落阿塞拜疆客机暗藏哪些险恶意图

【媒体报道】

12月25日，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫接受采访时表示，核战争没有赢家，但这不意味着任何人都可以挑战俄罗斯的耐心，俄罗斯将用一切可用手段捍卫国家利益。

12月26日，拉夫罗夫表示，如果美国当选总统特朗普关于恢复对话的信号是认真的，那么俄罗斯将对此做出回应。谈及俄乌冲突时，拉夫罗夫重申，俄罗斯愿意恢复谈判，但前提是必须考虑俄罗斯的利益，并称在达成可靠协议前实现停火“是死路一条”。

12月27日，有西方多家媒体报道称，12月25日，阿塞拜疆航班被俄军导弹击中坠毁，造成38人死亡。据消息人士提供的消息，俄方禁止受损8432航班降落，8432航班在GPS失灵的情况下飞越里海，最终在哈萨克斯坦坠毁。阿方要求俄方承认责任，俄方尚未回应。

【讨论纪要】

●俄罗斯的微妙态度或意味着，俄罗斯的某些行为或与阿克套空难事件有关

12月25日，从阿塞拜疆首都巴库飞往俄罗斯联邦北高加索联邦区车臣共和国首府格罗兹尼的8432航班在哈萨克斯坦西部里海沿岸城市阿克套。机上共有62名乘客、5名机组人员，其中38人丧生。在我们看来，阿塞拜疆空难事件，西方一定会拿来做文章。

我们注意到，在空难事件发生约48小时后，西方多家媒体开始炒作阿塞拜疆航班是被俄军导弹击中坠毁的。有熟悉阿塞拜疆坠机调查的阿政府消息人士告诉西方媒体，初步结果显示这架客机被俄罗斯的“铠甲-S”防空系统击中。该消息人士还表示，客机在接近格罗兹尼时被电子战系统切断了通讯。

昨天我们刚刚讨论过，因塞尔维亚局势不稳，应塞尔维亚向上合组织提出的申请，哈萨克斯坦特种部队以反恐名义前往塞尔维亚。

形势发展使然，目前，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦都在不同程度地向中国靠拢，特别是中俄关系总体上向好的方向发展。据报道，本次哈萨克斯坦以上合的名义出兵塞尔维亚，一定经过了中、俄、哈三方密切协调。

值得一提的是，阿塞拜疆空难事件发生后，俄罗斯在“第一时间”并没有急于否认，而称需要继续调查。在我们看来，俄罗斯的微妙态度或意味着，8432航班在从阿塞拜疆首都巴库飞往俄罗斯联邦北高加索联邦区车臣共和国首府格罗兹尼的飞行过程中，俄罗斯的某些行动或与这起空难有关。

西方媒体对俄罗斯的口诛笔伐让我们想起了两起历史事件。从今天的角度看，这两起历史事件并非孤立和巧合，而是经过精心策划的阴谋。且第一起历史事件成为第二起历史事件的前奏，为第二起历史事件成功进行了掩护。

●历史回顾——大韩航空007号班机空难与美军入侵格林纳达

第一起历史事件：大韩航空007号班机空难。

1983年8月31日凌晨，大韩航空007号航班从美国纽约飞往韩国汉城（现首尔）。然而，这架航班在飞行途中偏离了原定航线，进入了苏联领空。苏联空军随后派出“SU-15”截击机进行拦截，并在拦截过程中发射了导弹。被导弹击中的007号波音747客机空中解体，全体机组人员和乘客丧生。

1983年9月1日，时任美国总统里根发表电视讲话，称苏联表面上鼓吹对和平的向往和推动全球裁军，但背后却快速无情地做出恐怖主义行径，夺取无辜民众的生命。击落民航客机，是对手无寸铁平民的冷血屠杀暴行，不可原谅及应受到国际制裁与谴责。1983年9月2日，美国某著名报纸头版通栏标题写道：美国声称苏联击落了一架韩国民航客机，269人失踪，里根总统谴责这一暴行。1983年9月3日，韩国首都汉城爆发大规模反苏示威。

第二起历史事件：美军入侵格林纳达。

1983年10月25日凌晨，美国出动“快速部署部队”，采用突然袭击手段，对格林纳达发动的海空联合作战，这是自越南战争失败以来美国的第一次军事行动。

格林纳达位于加勒比海东部的小安的列斯群岛南端，西濒加勒比海，与巴拿马运河遥遥相对，东临大西洋，扼加勒比海出入大西洋的东部门户，历来为兵家必争之地。

格林纳达独立后，成为英联邦成员国，由统一工党执政。以埃利克·盖里为总理的统一工党政府奉行亲西方和亲美的政策，引起了在野党“新宝石运动”的不满。

“新宝石运动”又称“争取福利、教育和解放的联合进军”运动，成立于1972年，由格林纳达亲苏联和古巴的人士组成。该运动于1979年3月13日发动政变，推翻了盖里政府，成立了以莫里斯·毕晓普为总理的新政府。

毕晓普政府成立后，大量接收苏联和古巴的经济和军事援助，成立“人民革命军”和民兵队伍；由古巴派出工程部队在岛上修建新的“旅游机场”，其主跑道长达3000米。美国总统里根认为“格林纳达已经成为苏联和古巴的殖民地，用来作为输出恐怖行动和颠覆民主的基地”。如果格林纳达被苏、古完全控制，由格林纳达、古巴和尼加拉瓜三国的机场构成的“铁三角”，将使作为美国传统“后院”的中美洲加勒比海地区处于苏、古作战飞机的威胁之下，美国海上运输线的畅通和本土的安全将受到严重威胁。格林纳达有成为“第二个古巴的危险”。

因此，美国便不断向毕晓普政府施加压力，处心积虑地试图推翻格林纳达的亲苏古政权，将其纳入自由国家之列。随着格林纳达形势的发展，格实质上已逐渐成为美苏争霸和美古矛盾的一个斗争焦点。

迫于美国的压力，毕晓普政府开始采取措施缓和与美国和其他西方国家的紧张关系。1983年6月7日，毕晓普还亲自访问美国，并与美国达成了一项“谅解”。但是，毕晓普的上述行动引起了政府内部以副总理科尔德和政府军司令奥斯汀为首的亲苏古“强硬派”的激烈反对，并且苏联和古巴对此也耿耿于怀。10月13日，强硬派突然发动政变，将毕晓普软禁起来。19日，数千群众在首都圣乔治游行支持毕晓普，并将毕晓普解救出来，随之，这些人与政变者发生冲突，毕晓普又重新落到政变者手中，当天便被秘密处决。20日，军方接管政权，并成立了以奥斯汀为首的“革命军事委员会”，格政权落入亲苏古的强硬派手中。

●以1983年大韩航空007号航班事故映射阿克套空难，以美军入侵格林纳达映射、威胁北约军事挑衅、入侵白俄罗斯之险恶用心

通过以上历史回顾，我们不难看出：

第一，格林纳达深陷美苏冷战漩涡核心地带，亲美、亲苏势力围绕格林纳达政权归属反复拉锯；

第二，在1983年6月20日，军方接管政权，并成立了以奥斯汀为首的“革命军事委员会”，格政权落入亲苏古的强硬派手中后大约2个月，发生了大韩航空007号班机空难事件。且从有关该起事件披露的种种细节不难看出，大韩航空007号航班因某些原因未能及时响应苏联方面的问询；

第三，大韩航空007号航班空难事故发生后，美国上至总统，下至媒体对苏联口诛笔伐，一时间使得国际舆论对苏联极为不利，甚至很多国家爆发了大规模反苏游行示威。这些事情很大程度上吸引了苏联决策层的注意力并对其战略判断和决策造成困扰；

第四，大韩航空007号航班空难事故发生后大约2个月，美军以迅雷不及掩耳之势入侵格林纳达，推翻亲苏、古巴的格林纳达政权。

对比今天的国际局势，我们不难发现一些相似之处：

第一，自从北约东扩以来，白俄罗斯始终是俄罗斯与北约争夺的焦点之一，也可谓兵家必争之地。尤其在叙利亚阿萨德政权被颠覆后，白俄罗斯的战略处境迅速恶化，我们反复强调，阿萨德政权之后，紧接着最可能被颠覆的就是白俄罗斯卢卡申科政权；

第二，如果北约制定了某一时刻军事挑衅，甚至军事入侵、颠覆白俄罗斯卢卡申科政权的计划，我们有理由相信北约也制订了类似大韩航空007号航班空难事故这样的“复刻事件”为前者提供战略掩护，在声东击西的层面上，吸引了俄罗斯决策层的注意力并对其战略判断和决策造成困扰；

第三，有消息称，阿克套空难事件中的阿塞拜疆客机遇袭之前也出现了无法有效与外界进行通信的情况，且很可能因此遭到防空武器系统的攻击。如果这一传闻得到证实，则我们一点也不奇怪，有诸如马航“MH-370”事件、“MH-17”事件，尤其是“黎巴嫩通信器材大规模爆炸事件”等在前，甚至发生在1983年的大韩航空007号航班空难事故，我们都有理由认为，这些空难事故中出现的，诸如“无应答”的奇怪情况都与“高技术恐怖劫机”“远程操控”等行为有关。操纵整架飞机偏离航向，远程遥控关闭飞机与外界通信等都是惯用手段；

第四，阿克套空难事件涉及国家虽多，但显然都是精心挑选——刚刚宣布基于上合反恐层面出兵维稳的哈萨克斯坦以及当事国塞尔维亚；上合的两个主要成员国，中国和俄罗斯；俄罗斯向中东地区（比如，伊朗）施加影响力的主要陆地通道所在国阿塞拜疆；目前深感危险、外长紧急访华的伊朗以及虽距离阿塞拜疆较远，但却是被美国（拜登政府）威胁核心所在的白俄罗斯。

●基于俄罗斯仍对特朗普上台抱有不切实际的政治幻想，不排除美、俄借阿塞拜疆客机遇袭事件“搭上话”的可能性

值得一提的是，当年的美军入侵格林纳达差一点引发美苏爆发核战，所以，在我们看来，12月25日，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫表示，核战争没有赢家，显然是明白了阿克套空难事件所映射的内容。而在我们看来，一旦北约军事挑衅，甚至军事入侵白俄罗斯，颠覆卢卡申科政权，俄罗斯与美国之间爆发核战争的可能性将大幅增加。

但从12月26日，拉夫罗夫表示，如果美国当选总统特朗普关于恢复对话的信号是认真的，那么俄罗斯将对此做出回应。谈及俄乌冲突时，拉夫罗夫重申，俄罗斯愿意恢复谈判，但前提是必须考虑俄罗斯的利益，并称在达成可靠协议前实现停火“是死路一条”的相关言论来看，俄罗斯显然仍然对特朗普上台后，俄罗斯的战略处境或会有所改观抱有不切实际的政治幻想。甚至，基于“危机”中“机”的一面去观察拉夫罗夫的这番言论，在强烈警告美国“核战争没有赢家”的同时，我们不排除美、俄借阿塞拜疆客机遇袭事件“搭上话”的可能性。

拜登与“拜登们”这样做，对外，有借进一步威胁白俄罗斯刺激俄罗斯的意思，也有伺机继续于“伴随战略进攻之战略测试”层面推动对俄罗斯“温水煮青蛙”的意思；对内，则借不惜与俄罗斯爆发核战争，进一步胁迫特朗普和“特朗普们”，逼着对方不得不坐下来继续谈交易。

●乌克兰局势的持续紧张升级，何尝不是美国（拜登政府）瞄着伊朗（搅乱中东局势）玩的一出声东击西？

距离2025年1月20日，还有20余天，在我们看来，如果拜登和“拜登们”在这段时间里拿不到他们想要的利益，很可能选择“战略冒险、狗急跳墙”。其中，有两个方向的风险较为突出，一个是乌克兰方向，一个是中东方向。当然，西太方向的可能性也不能排除，只是相对于其他两个方向可能性低一些。

需要强调的是，如果我们将可能因北约军事挑衅、入侵白俄罗斯，颠覆卢卡申科政权引发的俄美核战争与美国（拜登政府）军事打击伊朗，将中东局势向进一步混乱、美军随时可能下水的方向进行推动相比，显然，后者的风险，可控性要更高一些。所以，如果我们说，阿克套空难事件内嵌有美国（拜登政府）瞄着白俄罗斯对俄罗斯玩一出声东击西之战略意图的话，那么整个乌克兰局势的持续紧张升级或也有美国（拜登政府）瞄着伊朗对俄罗斯玩一出声东击西之战略之意。这是我们前文判断，目前伊朗的战略处境，某种意义上说比白俄罗斯更危机的主要原因所在。更何况，目前愈发倾向于“投降主义”之外政策路线的伊朗已经沦落到“姥姥不亲，舅舅不爱”的地步。这也变相降低了美国（拜登政府）军事打击伊朗所带来的潜在风险。只要波斯湾不彻底大乱，美国（拜登政府）就没多少值得忌讳的。当然，将局势向这个方向推动，拜登仍然乐见。

最后需要补充的是，对于白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科可能的访华行程，大家不妨持续密切观察。阿克套空难事件也是美国（拜登政府）对俄罗斯真实态度的一种测试，从俄罗斯称事件需要继续调查来看，测试结果如上文所述——俄罗斯依然对特朗普上台抱有幻想。

【相关话题】

第7656期－东方点评，伊朗总统会见俄罗斯代表团或将于明年1月签署战略协议（2024-12-24）
第7659期－若伊朗继续怂下去，“拜登们”恐怕就不得不直接搞事，将中东，甚至乌克兰局面（不排除西太）继续往失控方向驱赶（2024-12-25）
第7664期－东方点评，有外媒报道称，应塞尔维亚要求上合组织，首支哈萨克斯坦反恐部队将进驻塞尔维亚（2）（2024-12-26）

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

December 27, 2024, Friday, Issue 1142

Comparing the 1983 Soviet Downing of Korean Air Flight 007 and the Subsequent US Invasion of Grenada: A Brief Discussion on the Sinister Intentions Behind Western Hype Over the Alleged Downing of an Azerbaijani Airliner by Russian Forces

[Media Reports]

On December 25, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated in an interview that there are no winners in a nuclear war, but this does not mean that anyone can challenge Russia's patience. Russia will use all available means to defend its national interests.

On December 26, Lavrov said that if the signal from US President-elect Trump about resuming dialogue is serious, Russia will respond accordingly. When discussing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Lavrov reiterated that Russia is willing to resume negotiations, but only if Russia's interests are taken into account, and stated that achieving a ceasefire before reaching a reliable agreement "is a dead end."

On December 27, multiple Western media outlets reported that on December 25, an Azerbaijani flight was hit by a Russian missile and crashed, killing 38 people. According to sources, Russia prohibited the damaged Flight 8432 from landing, and the flight, with its GPS malfunctioning, flew over the Caspian Sea before crashing in Kazakhstan. Azerbaijan demanded that Russia acknowledge responsibility, to which Russia has not yet responded.

[Discussion Summary]

● Russia's subtle attitude may imply that certain Russian actions could be related to the Aktau air disaster

On December 25, Flight 8432, traveling from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny, the capital of Russia's Chechen Republic in the North Caucasus Federal District, crashed in the western Caspian Sea coast city of Aktau, Kazakhstan. There were 62 passengers and 5 crew members on board, with 38 fatalities. In our view, the Western media will certainly exploit the Azerbaijani air disaster.

We note that approximately 48 hours after the incident, multiple Western media outlets began hyping that the Azerbaijani flight was shot down by a Russian missile. A government source familiar with the Azerbaijani crash investigation told Western media that preliminary results indicate the passenger plane was hit by Russia's "Pantsir-S" air defense system. The source also said that the airliner's communications were cut off by an electronic warfare system as it approached Grozny.

We discussed yesterday that due to the unstable situation in Serbia, at Serbia's request to the SCO, Kazakh special forces went to Serbia under the pretext of counterterrorism.

Given the current situation, both Russia and Kazakhstan are to varying degrees moving closer to China, especially with Sino-Russian relations generally developing positively. It is reported that Kazakhstan's deployment of troops to Serbia under the auspices of the SCO must have been closely coordinated among China, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

It is worth mentioning that after the Azerbaijani air disaster, Russia did not rush to deny it "immediately" but stated that further investigation was needed. In our opinion, Russia's subtle attitude may imply that certain Russian actions could be related to the air disaster that occurred during Flight 8432's journey from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny, the capital of Russia's Chechen Republic.

The Western media's condemnation of Russia reminds us of two historical events. From today's perspective, these two events were neither isolated nor coincidental, but rather carefully planned conspiracies. Moreover, the first event served as a prelude to the second, effectively providing cover for it.

● Historical Review - Korean Air Flight 007 Disaster and the US Invasion of Grenada

The first historical event: The Korean Air Flight 007 disaster.

In the early morning of August 31, 1983, Korean Air Flight 007 was en route from New York, USA, to Seoul, South Korea. However, the flight deviated from its intended route and entered Soviet airspace. The Soviet Air Force subsequently dispatched "SU-15" interceptor aircraft to intercept it and fired a missile during the interception. The Boeing 747, hit by the missile, disintegrated in mid-air, killing all crew members and passengers.

On September 1, 1983, then-US President Reagan delivered a television address, stating that while the Soviet Union outwardly advocated for peace and global disarmament, it secretly and ruthlessly committed terrorist acts, taking the lives of innocent people. Shooting down a civilian airliner was a cold-blooded massacre of unarmed civilians, unforgivable and deserving of international sanctions and condemnation. On September 2, 1983, a prominent US newspaper featured a front-page headline: "US Claims Soviet Union Shot Down South Korean Civilian Airliner; 269 Missing; Reagan Condemns Atrocity." On September 3, 1983, massive anti-Soviet demonstrations erupted in Seoul, South Korea.

The second historical event: The US invasion of Grenada.

In the early morning of October 25, 1983, the US deployed its "Rapid Deployment Force," using surprise attack tactics, to launch a combined sea and air operation against Grenada. This was the first military operation by the US since the defeat in the Vietnam War.

Grenada is located at the southern end of the Lesser Antilles in the eastern Caribbean Sea, bordering the Caribbean Sea to the west, facing the Panama Canal in the distance, and the Atlantic Ocean to the east, strategically positioned as a gateway for ships entering the Atlantic from the Caribbean.

After independence, Grenada became a member of the Commonwealth and was governed by the United Labour Party, which pursued pro-Western and pro-US policies, causing dissatisfaction among the opposition "New Jewel Movement."

The "New Jewel Movement," also known as the "Joint Endeavour for Welfare, Education, and Liberation," was founded in 1972 by individuals in Grenada who were pro-Soviet and pro-Cuba. The movement launched a coup on March 13, 1979, overthrowing the Gairy government and establishing a new government with Maurice Bishop as Prime Minister.

After the Bishop government was established, it received significant economic and military aid from the Soviet Union and Cuba, established the "People's Revolutionary Army" and militia forces, and had Cuba send engineering troops to build a new "tourist airport" on the island, with a main runway 3,000 meters long. US President Reagan believed that "Grenada had become a colony of the Soviet Union and Cuba, used as a base for exporting terrorist actions and subverting democracy." If Grenada were fully controlled by the Soviet Union and Cuba, the "Iron Triangle" formed by the airports in Grenada, Cuba, and Nicaragua would threaten the Caribbean region of Central America, traditionally considered the US's "backyard," with Soviet and Cuban combat aircraft. The smooth flow of US maritime transport lines and the security of the US mainland would be severely threatened. Grenada had the potential to become "a second Cuba."

Therefore, the US continuously applied pressure on the Bishop government, scheming to overthrow the pro-Soviet and pro-Cuban regime in Grenada and bring it into the ranks of free nations. With the development of the situation in Grenada, the country essentially became a focal point of the US-Soviet rivalry and US-Cuba conflict.

Under pressure from the US, the Bishop government began taking measures to ease tensions with the US and other Western countries. On June 7, 1983, Bishop personally visited the US and reached an "understanding" with the US. However, Bishop's actions sparked fierce opposition from the "hardliners" within the government who were pro-Soviet and pro-Cuba, led by Deputy Prime Minister Colder and Military Commander Austin, and the Soviet Union and Cuba were also deeply upset. On October 13, the hardliners suddenly launched a coup, placing Bishop under house arrest. On the 19th, thousands of protesters marched in the capital, St. George's, in support of Bishop and rescued him. Subsequently, clashes erupted between these protesters and the coup plotters, and Bishop fell back into the hands of the coup plotters, who secretly executed him on the same day. On the 20th, the military took over the government and established a "Revolutionary Military Council" led by Austin, with the pro-Soviet and pro-Cuba hardliners taking control of the Grenadian regime.

● Mapping the 1983 Korean Air Flight 007 incident to the Aktau air disaster, and the US invasion of Grenada to the sinister intentions of threatening NATO military provocations and invading Belarus

Through this historical review, we can clearly see:

Firstly, Grenada was at the heart of the Cold War vortex between the US and the Soviet Union, with pro-US and pro-Soviet forces repeatedly vying for control of the Grenadian regime.

Secondly, on June 20, 1983, the military took over the government and established the "Revolutionary Military Council" headed by Austin. About two months after the Grenadian regime fell into the hands of the hardline pro-Soviet and pro-Cuban faction, the Korean Air Flight 007 disaster occurred. And from the various details disclosed about the incident, it is not difficult to see that Korean Air Flight 007 failed to respond to Soviet inquiries in a timely manner for some reasons.

Thirdly, after the Korean Air Flight 007 disaster, the US, from the president down to the media, condemned the Soviet Union, causing international public opinion to turn sharply against the Soviet Union. Large-scale anti-Soviet demonstrations and protests even broke out in many countries. These events greatly distracted the attention of Soviet decision-makers and caused trouble for their strategic judgments and decisions.

Fourthly, about two months after the Korean Air Flight 007 disaster, the US military swiftly invaded Grenada and overthrew the pro-Soviet and pro-Cuban Grenadian regime.

Comparing today's international situation, we can easily find some similarities:

Firstly, since NATO's eastward expansion, Belarus has always been one of the focal points of contention between Russia and NATO, and can also be described as a strategically contested territory. Especially after the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown, Belarus's strategic situation rapidly deteriorated. We have repeatedly emphasized that after the Assad regime, the Lukashenko regime in Belarus is likely to be the next to be overthrown.

Secondly, if NATO has formulated plans for military provocations or even military invasion and overthrow of the Lukashenko regime in Belarus at a certain moment, we have reason to believe that NATO has also devised a "replica event" similar to the Korean Air Flight 007 disaster to provide strategic cover for the former. On the level of diverting attention, this would distract the attention of Russian decision-makers and cause trouble for their strategic judgments and decisions.

Thirdly, it is reported that before the Azerbaijani passenger plane involved in the Aktau air disaster was attacked, it also experienced difficulty in effectively communicating with the outside world and may have been attacked by air defense weapon systems as a result. If this rumor is confirmed, we would not be surprised. With incidents such as Malaysia Airlines Flight MH-370, MH-17, and especially the "massive explosion of communication equipment in Lebanon" preceding it, and even the Korean Air Flight 007 disaster in 1983, we have reason to believe that the strange situations such as "no response" in these air disasters are related to actions such as "high-tech terrorist hijacking" and "remote control". Diverting the entire plane from its course and remotely controlling the shutdown of communication between the plane and the outside world are common tactics.

Fourthly, although the Aktau air disaster involves multiple countries, they are obviously carefully selected - Kazakhstan, which has just announced its military deployment for stability based on the SCO's anti-terrorism efforts, and Serbia, one of the parties involved; China and Russia, the two main member states of the SCO; Azerbaijan, the main land route for Russia's influence in the Middle East (such as Iran); Iran, which currently feels threatened and whose foreign minister has made an urgent visit to China; and Belarus, which is far from Azerbaijan but is at the core of US (Biden administration) threats.

● Based on Russia's unrealistic political fantasies about Trump coming to power, it cannot be ruled out that the US and Russia may use the Azerbaijani plane attack incident as an opportunity to "start a conversation"

It is worth mentioning that the US invasion of Grenada almost triggered a nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union. Therefore, in our view, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's statement on December 25 that there are no winners in a nuclear war clearly indicates that he understands the implications of the Aktau air disaster. And in our view, once NATO engages in military provocations or even military invasion of Belarus and overthrows the Lukashenko regime, the possibility of a nuclear war breaking out between Russia and the US will significantly increase.

However, from Lavrov's statement on December 26 that if the signal from US President-elect Trump about resuming dialogue is serious, Russia will respond accordingly, and his reiteration when discussing the Russia-Ukraine conflict that Russia is willing to resume negotiations but only if Russia's interests are considered, and that achieving a ceasefire before reaching a reliable agreement is "a dead end", it is clear that Russia still holds unrealistic political fantasies that its strategic situation may improve after Trump comes to power. Furthermore, based on the "opportunity" aspect of the "crisis", observing Lavrov's remarks, while strongly warning the US that "there are no winners in a nuclear war", we cannot rule out the possibility that the US and Russia may use the Azerbaijani plane attack incident as an opportunity to "start a conversation".

Biden and the "Bidens" are doing this, externally, to further threaten Belarus and provoke Russia, and also to seize the opportunity to continue pushing Russia into a "strategic test with accompanying strategic offensives" in a " slow-boiling frog" manner; internally, they are coercing Trump and the "Trumps" by resorting to the risk of a nuclear war with Russia, forcing them to sit down and continue negotiating.

● The continued escalation of tensions in Ukraine is also a diversionary tactic employed by the US (Biden administration) aimed at Iran (stirring up chaos in the Middle East)

With just over 20 days until January 20, 2025, in our view, if Biden and the "Bidens" do not obtain the benefits they want during this period, they may choose to take "strategic risks and act desperately". There are two directions where the risks are more prominent: one is the Ukraine direction, and the other is the Middle East direction. Of course, the possibility in the Western Pacific direction cannot be ruled out, but it is relatively lower compared to the other two directions.

It should be emphasized that if we compare the potential nuclear war between Russia and the US triggered by NATO's military provocations, invasion of Belarus, and overthrow of the Lukashenko regime, with the US (Biden administration) military strike on Iran, pushing the Middle East situation towards further chaos and the possibility of US military intervention, it is clear that the latter carries a higher degree of controllable risk. Therefore, if we say that the Aktau air disaster embeds the strategic intention of the US (Biden administration) using Belarus as a diversionary tactic against Russia, then the continued escalation of tensions in the entire Ukraine situation may also be a diversionary tactic employed by the US (Biden administration) aimed at Iran against Russia. This is the main reason why we previously judged that Iran's strategic situation is, in a sense, more critical than that of Belarus. Moreover, Iran, which is increasingly leaning towards a foreign policy approach of "surrenderism", has fallen into a situation where "neither aunts nor uncles care about it". This also indirectly reduces the potential risks associated with a US (Biden administration) military strike on Iran. As long as the Persian Gulf does not fall into complete chaos, the US (Biden administration) has little to fear. Of course, Biden is still happy to see the situation developing in this direction.

Finally, it should be added that everyone should continue to closely observe the possible visit to China by Belarusian President Lukashenko. The Aktau air disaster is also a test of the US (Biden administration)'s true attitude towards Russia. Judging from Russia's statement that the incident requires further investigation, the test results are as mentioned above - Russia still holds fantasies about Trump coming to power.

[Related Topics]

Issue 7656 - Dongfang Commentary: Iranian President to Meet Russian Delegation, Strategic Agreement May Be Signed in January (2024-12-24)
Issue 7659 - If Iran Continues to Cower, the "Bidens" May Have to Directly Stir Up Trouble, Pushing the Middle East and Even the Ukraine Situation (Not Excluding the Western Pacific) Towards Further Escalation (2024-12-25)
Issue 7664 - Dongfang Commentary: According to Foreign Media Reports, at the Request of Serbia, the First SCO Anti-Terrorism Force from Kazakhstan Will Be Stationed in Serbia (2) (2024-12-26)

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