2024年12月25日，星期三，第1140期

面对访俄是假，“问计”中国是真的白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科
国际社会将如何应对？

【媒体报道】

12月23日，据俄罗斯媒体、白俄罗斯媒体报道，白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科宣布，将在年底前与俄罗斯总统普京举行会晤，并将访问中国。

12月25日，以色列国防军新闻处发布消息称，以色列国防军在加沙地带汗尤尼斯省对巴勒斯坦哈马斯武装分子实施了打击。

12月25日，俄联邦委员会（议会上院）主席瓦莲京娜·马特维延科说，与乌克兰的谈判进程将于2025年启动。她说：“当然，明年将启动谈判进程。但在我看来，谈判将会非常艰难。”

【讨论纪要】

●至少当前阶段，伊朗被有美国当选特朗普支持的以色列死死压住

12月22日，我们注意到，伊朗最高精神领袖哈梅内伊“也门胡塞武装、黎巴嫩真主党武装、巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）与巴勒斯坦伊斯兰圣战组织（杰哈德）等进行的抵抗是因为‘信仰’，‘他们并不是伊朗的代理人’。”的相关言论。

哈梅伊内的言论让我们听上去很奇怪，全世界都知道伊朗是“什叶派抵抗之弧”的主导者。“什叶派抵抗之弧”的主要成员就包括胡塞武装、黎巴嫩真主党武装、巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）与巴勒斯坦伊斯兰圣战组织（杰哈德），以及活跃在伊拉克和叙利亚等地的反美、反以地方武装组织。

在我们看来，哈梅内伊的言论在撇清关系，防止特朗普上台后以此为理由对伊朗进行军事打击。换句话说，伊朗决策层似乎听懂了以色列公开承认暗杀巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）前领导人纳尼亚的潜台词——如果伊朗打算在以色列继续剪除或重创“什叶派抵抗之弧”残余势力的过程中表现出有所不服的话，那么以色列或将公开伊朗前总统莱希死亡事件的“真相”（甚至包括伊朗核物理学家法克里扎德、伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队高级将领苏莱曼尼的“死亡真相”。以色列方面的态度始终是“既不承认，也不否认”），且绝对与伊朗官方公布的“事发地区复杂的天气条件，以及突然出现的浓雾，导致直升机与山体相撞”的结论截然不同！

●以伊朗目前的决策方向来观察，重返叙利亚的唯一可能就是“见风使舵”

12月19日，我们注意到伊朗承认叙利亚新政府的相关新闻报道。伊朗方面表示，面对外交新局，叙利亚新政府包容政策值得期待。

目前叙利亚临时政府虽然和美、以关系微妙，但也都在建立联系。此外，支持叙利亚临时政府的土耳其已经邀请欧盟介入叙利亚局势后续发展。在我们看来，伊朗方面想要重返叙利亚，或者说重返“国际社会”的心情似乎过于迫切，而伊方眼中的“国际社会”显然指的是西方。但伊方似乎忽略了叙利亚局势后续发展的复杂性和自己目前所处的战略处境。

在我们看来，土耳其支持叙利亚临时政府要做的很重要的事情之一就是继续解决“库尔德问题”。由于库尔德人势力为美国所支持，所以土耳其一定不会依靠美国。尽管土耳其引入欧盟，但欧盟的实力是否能够平衡美国，土耳其心里没底。所以，在土耳其看来，重新将俄罗斯引入叙利亚局势后续发展是有必要的。这意味着，土耳其在当前阶段的叙利亚局势中，至少要在美、欧、俄“三个鸡蛋”上跳舞，而这里似乎并没有伊朗的位置。

有一点可以肯定，即便土耳其同时引入欧、俄，就一定能平衡美国的影响力吗？恐怕未必。对于欧、俄两方，他们中至一家，甚至两家大概率会建议叙利亚新政府拜一拜中国的“码头”，这也许会成为我们在叙利亚局势后续发展过程中可能的存在方式之一。尽管如此，也就是存在而已，显然，这样一个局势混沌，且不知道要混沌多久的叙利亚，并不适合立刻开始重建进程。

综上讨论，在重返叙利亚的问题上，伊朗唯一的机会就是“见风使舵”，也就是等着几方叙利亚局势后续发展中的“主要玩家们”，有谁“需要订盒饭”，有谁“需要跑腿儿送信儿”，甚至有谁会“临时开开”等，意图重新介入叙利亚局势的后续发展。

这样一个伊朗自然被以色列看得满眼，所以，12月25日，有“以色列国防军在加沙地带汗尤尼斯省对巴勒斯坦哈马斯武装分子实施打击”的新闻传出也就不足为奇了。也就是说，至少当前阶段，伊朗面对以色列继续清剿“什叶派抵抗之弧”的残余势力采取了类似面对阿萨德政权被颠覆整个过程一样的作壁上观的态度。
对此，我们建议，黎巴嫩真主党武装应该离开现在的黎巴嫩南部地区，这里很容易遭到以色列军队和黎巴嫩政府军的夹击。黎巴嫩真主党武装应杀到叙利亚去，作为叙利亚境内的一股武装势力，伺机而动。至于巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯），前途堪忧，很可能被彻底剿灭。但胡塞武装则充满变数，甚至值得期待。

●通过回顾2015年伊核协议的诞生，小谈伊朗和俄罗斯为何互不信任

在叙利亚阿萨德政权短期内被颠覆，以及伊朗和俄罗斯蒙受重大战略损失的背后，折射出伊朗与俄罗斯之间的互不信任。而这种不信任并非今天才有，而是冰冻三尺非一日之寒。

回顾历史，2015年正是在俄罗斯的极力“撮合”之中，在伊朗本身内部“妥协因子”的配合下，最终产生了伊核协议。伊核协议是一个非常重要的协议，其与“七月流火，八月未央，九月授衣”密切相关。

所谓“俄罗斯的极力撮合”指的就是俄罗斯因“时间因素”最终向西方妥协一事，且当时东方时事解读至少提前半年对此事有过提前评估，即：到了2015年的七月底，如果俄罗斯没有实质性配合国际社会打断、至少有效干扰当时对国际社会危害极大的西方“微调”后的中东战略的话，那么中国一定会做出战略调整。

具体大家可回顾《东方时事解读·时事音频》第1800期，南亚破局的“前世今生”（1）：从2015年“七月流火，八月未央”开始说起。这一期音频全面回顾了东方时事解读相关评估，即：2015年“七月流火，八月未央”，最后却导致“（俄罗斯）九月授衣”的相关逻辑，以及中国为什么一定做出战略调整。此外，这个逻辑也是西方“中东时间陷阱”外溢的方向首选“泰国之乱”方向“开花”，因遭到中国“南海战略”强烈反击，最终在“乌克兰之乱”得以“结果”的主要原因。

在东方时事解读于2014年年底到2015年年初准确预测，因欧美要统一金融政策，“水淹南方”，全面推动“金融防火墙”进程，2015年欧洲央行一定降息的背景下，中国在2015年七月到八月，宣布经济减速，公布黄金储备，进行汇率机制改革，构成了“七月流火，八月未央”的主要内容，于是有了所谓“耶伦哭晕在厕所”的梗。迫于无奈，美国被迫跟随中国调整政策，不得不将主要矛头指向俄罗斯、将压力集中压向俄罗斯。而对于俄罗斯的遭遇，在中国看来，“如有雷同、纯属巧合”，最终，俄罗斯无奈之下被迫“军事复盘”叙利亚，是为“九月授衣”。

通过上述回顾，大家说，伊朗还会相信俄罗斯吗？

●我们始终强调，俄罗斯是白俄罗斯国家安全的第一责任人

伊朗最大的危险在于，在2025年1月20日之前，没人知道拜登政府为了一己私利会疯狂到什么程度。在拜登对内部交易感到绝望的情况下，拜登政府直接命令美军攻击伊朗，比如打击伊朗核设施的可能性不能排除。如果伊朗核设施真的遭到打击，伊朗国内的强硬派恐怕不会善罢甘休，届时，如果伊朗决策层仍然是拖拖拉拉，犹豫不决的话，伊朗内部酿成大乱也未可知。当然，这种结果是特朗普不愿看到的，一旦伊朗大乱，波斯湾的稳定问题就会立刻凸显出来，这会让美国金融当局维稳金融变得十分困难。但是，这种氛围，或将局势向这个方向导引却是拜登需要的。如果特朗普感到恐惧，那就坐下来继续谈交易！

伊朗面对如此之大的战略风险，俄罗斯又何尝不是如此？在我们看来，甚至俄罗斯的战略风险比之伊朗有过之无不及！

如果说，华尔街因惧怕波斯湾大乱引发美国（西方）爆发金融危机而会对拜登政府有所约束的话，那么推动乌克兰局势全面升级、即便是点了扎波罗热核电站要比军事打击伊朗、进而导致波斯湾大乱的风险似乎更具操作性。对拜登来说，这当然是一种“求其上，得其中”的讹诈方式。

在这种风险背景下，我们注意到了白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科称将在年底前与普京举行会晤，并将访问中国的新闻报道。

无论出于拜登和特朗普之间基于美国内政层面的内斗，还是出于拜登和特朗普之间基于美国外政层面的协调，似乎“刀”都在砍向白俄罗斯！阿萨德政权倾覆后，明显感觉到西方邪恶势力下一个可能颠覆的政权就是自己的白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科有些坐不住了。

在我们看来，白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科2024年年底的这次出行，恐怕访俄是假，“问计”中国是真。在我们的观察与评估中，国际社会或可能采取以下应对方式：

第一，国际社会明确表达，对西方邪恶势力颠覆白俄罗斯政权的企图，绝不会坐视不管的强烈信号；

1. 国际社会明确表达，坚定支持白俄罗斯人民抵抗任何形式军事挑衅、军事侵略或政权颠覆的正义行动，捍卫国家主权和领土完整，并愿意为此提供一切可能的帮助。

基于以上两点，我们想要展开说明的是：

第一，由于国际社会在白俄罗斯也有重要利益存在，所以，只要国际社会想管，就一定有管的理由；

第二，至于国际社会如何绝不坐视，在我们看来，本着“你打你的，我打我的”的原则，中国会有自己的应对策略，但有一点可以放心，中国绝不食言；

第三，俄罗斯是白俄罗斯国家安全的第一责任人。这一点与朝鲜不同。因为俄罗斯和朝鲜之间签订有军事盟友协定，俄罗斯保护朝鲜是分内之事。但中国和白俄罗斯之间没有此类条约。需要强调的是，在俄罗斯保卫白俄罗斯且与西方彻底撕破脸至不可逆之前，国际社会大概率不会启动收台这一“兜底方案”，但作为威胁西方邪恶势力的手段，国际社会不排除在适当情况下启动这一战略选项的可能；

第四，在“并愿意为此提供一切可能的帮助”层面，类似无人机、反无人机、卫星导航，甚至军事体系支撑等，可以考虑对白俄罗斯提供。至于白俄罗斯是否将这些武器装备、电子战系统、情报支撑体系与俄罗斯分享，那是白俄罗斯自己的事情，与国际社会无关。

●这条新闻报道的披露或真的意味着美军的敌我识别系统出了大问题，C4ISR系统不再安全，不再可靠

最后，我们再聊聊美军“F-18”被己方“误击”事件的后续发展。我们注意到，有美官员披露称，第二架战斗机也差点被自家巡洋舰击落。

如果出现重大伤亡决不能说一个人，掩盖真相至少要说2架或3架出了问题。所以，我们认为，这条新闻报道的披露或真的意味着美军的敌我识别系统出了大问题，C4ISR系统不再安全，不再可靠。尤其在某种力量前不再安全，不再可靠。也就是说，美军敌我识别器被干扰，数据链被干扰可能性最大，当然，C4ISR系统被黑也有可能，如果是后者，绝对是“兹事体大”！

无独有偶，美东时间20日公布，国务院批准对台军售，提供价值约2.65亿美元的指挥、通讯设备。其中当中包含309套多功能资讯分发系统暨联合战术无线电系统第五型测试、认证和整合，整合到台湾包括爱国者飞弹系统、P-3反潜机以及F-16 Block 20战机等平台。加速台湾先进战术数据链系统的现代化升级。

需要强调的是，美国向“台独武装”提供的很多武器系统都可以接入美军使用的C4ISR系统之中。所以，美国12月20日向“台独武装”军售，且明确提及“加速台湾先进战术数据链系统的现代化升级”，而12月21日，就爆出“F-18”战机被“误击”事件且强调“第二架战斗机也差点被自家巡洋舰击落”。至于这两起事件是否有“必然联系”，有怎样的“必然联系”，大家自己慢慢品。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

December 25, 2024, Wednesday, Issue 1140

Facing a Fake Visit to Russia, Belarusian President Lukashenko's Real Intention is to "Seek Advice" from China
How will the international community respond?

[Media Reports]

On December 23, according to Russian and Belarusian media reports, Belarusian President Lukashenko announced that he will meet with Russian President Putin before the end of the year and will visit China.

On December 25, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) news desk released a statement saying that the IDF conducted strikes against Palestinian Hamas militants in the Khan Yunis Governorate of the Gaza Strip.

On December 25, Valentina Matvienko, the chair of the Federation Council (upper chamber of the Russian parliament), said that negotiations with Ukraine will commence in 2025. She stated, "Of course, negotiations will start next year. But in my view, the negotiations will be very difficult."

[Discussion Summary]

● At least at this stage, Iran is being tightly pressed by Israel, which has the support of the US presidential candidate Trump.

On December 22, we noted that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that the resistance carried out by the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, and Islamic Jihad in Palestine, among others, is due to "faith" and "they are not agents of Iran." These remarks sound strange to us. It is well-known worldwide that Iran is the dominant force in the "Axis of Shia Resistance," which includes the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, as well as anti-American and anti-Israeli local armed groups active in Iraq and Syria.

In our view, Khamenei's remarks are aimed at distancing himself to prevent Trump from using this as a pretext to launch a military strike on Iran after taking office. In other words, the Iranian decision-making layer seems to have understood the subtext of Israel publicly acknowledging the assassination of former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar—if Iran intends to show any disobedience during Israel's continued efforts to eliminate or severely weaken the remaining forces of the "Axis of Shia Resistance," Israel may publicly reveal the "truth" behind the death of Iran's former president Raisi (including even the "truth" behind the deaths of Iranian nuclear physicist Fakhrizadeh and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander Soleimani). Israel's attitude has always been "neither confirming nor denying," and it will definitely differ from the conclusion officially announced by Iran, which states that "complex weather conditions and sudden fog in the area led to the helicopter colliding with the mountain."

● Observing Iran's current decision-making direction, its only possibility for returning to Syria is to "play it by ear."

On December 19, we noted news reports acknowledging Iran's recognition of the new Syrian government. Iran stated that the inclusive policies of the new Syrian government are worth anticipating in the face of a new diplomatic situation.

Currently, although the Syrian interim government has delicate relations with the US and Israel, they are both establishing contacts. Additionally, Turkey, which supports the Syrian interim government, has invited the European Union to intervene in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation. In our view, Iran seems overly eager to return to Syria or "the international community," and the "international community" it refers to is clearly the West. However, Iran seems to have overlooked the complexity of the subsequent development of the Syrian situation and its current strategic situation.

In our opinion, one of the important tasks for Turkey in supporting the Syrian interim government is to continue addressing the "Kurdish issue." Since the Kurdish forces are supported by the US, Turkey will certainly not rely on the US. Although Turkey has introduced the EU, Turkey is unsure whether the EU's strength can balance the US. Therefore, Turkey believes it is necessary to reintroduce Russia into the subsequent development of the Syrian situation. This means that Turkey, at this stage in the Syrian situation, must dance on at least three eggs: the US, the EU, and Russia, and there seems to be no place for Iran here.

One thing is certain: even if Turkey introduces both Europe and Russia, can they definitely balance American influence? Probably not. For Europe and Russia, one or even both of them will likely suggest that the new Syrian government pay homage to China's "dock" (seek China's support), which may become one of our possible ways of existence in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation. Nevertheless, it is merely a possibility. Clearly, such a chaotic Syrian situation, with no clear end in sight, is not suitable for immediately initiating the reconstruction process.

In summary, regarding its return to Syria, Iran's only opportunity is to "play it by ear," which means waiting to see which of the "main players" in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation will "need to order meals," "need to run errands," or even "temporarily open up," with the intention of re-intervening in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation.

Such an Iran is naturally in Israel's eyes, so it is not surprising that news emerged on December 25 that the "IDF conducted strikes against Hamas militants in the Khan Yunis Governorate of the Gaza Strip." In other words, at least at this stage, Iran has adopted a stance of sitting on the sidelines, similar to its approach during the entire process of the Assad regime being overturned, in the face of Israel's continued eradication of the remaining forces of the "Axis of Shia Resistance."

Regarding this, we suggest that Hezbollah in Lebanon should leave its current position in southern Lebanon, where it is vulnerable to a joint attack by the Israeli army and the Lebanese government army. Hezbollah should move to Syria and act as an armed force within Syria, seizing opportunities as they arise. As for Hamas, its future is bleak, and it is likely to be completely eliminated. However, the Houthis are full of uncertainties and even worth anticipating.

● By reviewing the birth of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, let's briefly discuss why Iran and Russia do not trust each other.

Behind the short-term overthrow of the Syrian Assad regime and the significant strategic losses suffered by Iran and Russia, there is a reflection of the mutual distrust between Iran and Russia. This distrust has not emerged overnight but has been building up over time.

Looking back at history, it was ultimately through Russia's "mediation" and Iran's internal "compromising factors" that the Iran nuclear deal was concluded in 2015. The Iran nuclear deal is a very important agreement, closely related to the saying "The fire of July begins to blaze; August is not yet half gone; preparing for warm clothes in September."

The so-called "Russia's mediation" refers to Russia's eventual compromise with the West due to the "time factor," and Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation had at least half a year of advance assessment on this matter, namely: if Russia had not substantially cooperated with the international community to disrupt or at least effectively interfere with the West's "fine-tuned" Middle East strategy by the end of July 2015, then China would certainly make a strategic adjustment.

Specifically, you can refer to Episode 1800 of Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation, "The Past and Present of the South Asian Breakthrough (1): Starting from the 'Fire of July Begins to Blaze; August is Not Yet Half Gone' in 2015." This episode comprehensively reviews the relevant assessments of Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation, namely: the logic behind the "Fire of July, Begins to Blaze; August is Not Yet Half Gone, Preparing for Warm Clothes in September " in 2015 and why China must make a strategic adjustment. Additionally, this logic is also the main reason why the direction of the "Middle East Time Trap" spilling over externally chose to "bloom" in the direction of the "Thai turmoil" but was strongly countered by China's "South China Sea Strategy," ultimately "bearing fruit" in the "Ukrainian turmoil."

In the context of Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation accurately predicting at the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015 that Europe and the US would unify their financial policies, "flood the South," and comprehensively promote the "financial firewall" process, with the European Central Bank certain to cut interest rates in 2015, China announced economic deceleration, disclosed gold reserves, and conducted exchange rate mechanism reforms from July to August 2015, constituting the main content of "The fire of July begins to blaze; August is not yet half gone." Hence, the meme of "Yellen crying in the bathroom" emerged. Forced by circumstances, the United States was compelled to follow China's policy adjustment and had no choice but to direct its main focus and pressure towards Russia. As for Russia's situation, from China's perspective, "if there are similarities, it's purely coincidental." Ultimately, Russia, with no other option, was forced to "militarily revisit" Syria, which can be described as "preparing for warm clothes in September"(preparing for war).

Through this review, do you think Iran will trust Russia again?

●We have always emphasized that Russia is the primary guarantor of Belarus's national security.

Iran's greatest danger lies in the fact that no one knows how far the Biden administration will go in pursuit of its own interests before January 20, 2025. Desperate over internal dealings, the Biden administration might directly order the US military to attack Iran, and the possibility of striking Iran's nuclear facilities cannot be ruled out. If Iran's nuclear facilities are indeed attacked, the hardliners within Iran are unlikely to rest. At that time, if Iran's decision-makers continue to drag their feet and hesitate, it is conceivable that major unrest could erupt within Iran. Of course, this is an outcome that Trump does not want to see, as instability in the Persian Gulf would immediately become apparent, making it extremely difficult for US financial authorities to maintain stability. However, this atmosphere, or the direction in which the situation is being steered, is what Biden needs. If Trump feels fearful, then he should sit down and continue to negotiate a deal!

Facing such significant strategic risks, isn't Russia in a similar, if not worse, position?

If Wall Street fears that chaos in the Persian Gulf could trigger a financial crisis in the US (and the West) and thus constrains the Biden administration, then escalating the situation in Ukraine, even to the point of attacking the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, might seem more operable than a military strike on Iran that could lead to chaos in the Persian Gulf. For Biden, this is certainly a way of bluffing by "aiming high to achieve something in the middle."

Against this backdrop of risk, we have noticed news reports that Belarusian President Lukashenko will hold a meeting with Putin before the end of the year and will also visit China.

Whether due to the internal power struggle between Biden and Trump within the US or their coordination on foreign policy, it seems that the "knife" is being wielded against Belarus! After the Assad regime fell, it became apparent that the next regime the evil Western forces might attempt to overthrow is that of Belarusian President Lukashenko, who is feeling restless.

In our view, Lukashenko's trip at the end of 2024 is probably more about "seeking advice" from China than visiting Russia. Based on our observations and assessments, the international community may respond in the following ways:

First, the international community will clearly express its strong stance that it will not stand idly by in the face of attempts by evil Western forces to overthrow the Belarusian regime.

First (note: this should be renumbered as "Second" for clarity), the international community will clearly express its firm support for the Belarusian people in resisting any form of military provocation, aggression, or regime overthrow, in defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and in its willingness to provide all possible assistance.

Based on these two points, we would like to elaborate:

First, since the international community also has significant interests in Belarus, if it wants to intervene, it will find reasons to do so.

Second, regarding how the international community will not stand idly by, in our view, following the principle of "you fight your way, and I'll fight mine," China will have its own strategies. But one thing is for sure: China will keep its word.

Third, Russia is the primary guarantor of Belarus's national security. This is different from the situation with North Korea. Russia and North Korea have a military alliance agreement, so it is Russia's responsibility to protect North Korea. However, there is no such treaty between China and Belarus. It should be emphasized that before Russia defends Belarus and irrevocably tears itself apart from the West, the international community is unlikely to initiate the "bottom-line option" of reclaiming Taiwan. However, as a means of threatening evil Western forces, the international community does not rule out the possibility of initiating this strategic option under appropriate circumstances.

Fourth, regarding the willingness to provide all possible assistance, considerations could include providing Belarus with drones, anti-drone systems, satellite navigation, and even military system support. Whether Belarus shares these weapons, electronic warfare systems, and intelligence support systems with Russia is Belarus's own business and has nothing to do with the international community.

●The disclosure of this news report may really mean that the US military's friend-or-foe identification system has major issues, and the C4ISR system is no longer safe or reliable.

Finally, let's discuss the follow-up developments of the incident where a US "F-18" was "mistakenly shot down" by its own side. We have noticed that US officials have disclosed that a second fighter jet was also almost shot down by its own cruiser.

If there are significant casualties, one cannot simply blame an individual. To cover up the truth, one must at least claim that two or three aircraft were involved. Therefore, we believe that the disclosure of this news report may really indicate that the US military's friend-or-foe identification system has major issues, and the C4ISR system is no longer safe or reliable. Especially, it is no longer safe or reliable in the presence of certain forces. In other words, there is a high possibility that the US military's friend-or-foe identifier and data link have been interfered with. Of course, it is also possible that the C4ISR system has been hacked. If the latter is true, it is indeed a "serious matter"!

Coincidentally, on December 20 (US Eastern Time), it was announced that the State Department approved a military sale to Taiwan, providing command and communication equipment worth approximately $265 million. This includes the testing, certification, and integration of 309 sets of Multifunctional Information Distribution System and Joint Tactical Radio System Type 5 into Taiwan's platforms, including the Patriot missile system, P-3 anti-submarine aircraft, and F-16 Block 20 fighter jets. This accelerates the modernization upgrade of Taiwan's advanced tactical data link system.

It should be emphasized that many of the weapon systems provided by the US to the "Taiwan independence armed forces" can be integrated into the C4ISR system used by the US military. Therefore, on December 20, the US announced a military sale to the "Taiwan independence armed forces" and explicitly mentioned "accelerating the modernization upgrade of Taiwan's advanced tactical data link system." Then, on December 21, the incident of an "F-18" fighter jet being "mistakenly shot down" was reported, with emphasis on "a second fighter jet also almost being shot down by its own cruiser." Whether these two incidents are "inevitably linked" and what the "inevitable connection" is, you can ponder over them yourself.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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