●有意介入叙利亚局势后续发展的各方都会在叙利亚寻找自己的代理人

我们注意到伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊预计在叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德遭推翻后，叙利亚人将对该国新领导层发动新的反抗斗争的新闻报道。

12月23日，叙利亚新政府不再允许伊朗飞机向真主党运送武器飞越其领空，这导致伊朗运武飞机不得不改道土耳其上空飞行。显然，阿萨德政权被颠覆后，伊朗苦心经营的“什叶派抵抗之弧”在叙利亚被一道拦腰截断，已被事实证明。面对如此巨大的战略损失，哈梅内伊本人恐怕难辞其咎。

阿萨德政权被颠覆后，可以肯定，一定会出现新的反政府势力。或者说，有意介入叙利亚局势后续发展的各方，包括俄罗斯，欧盟，土耳其，伊朗等，都会寻找自己的代理人。甚至不排除一些已经存在的势力改换门庭的可能性，比如，“沙姆解放组织”抛弃土耳其而投靠欧盟。

在叙利亚再乱前，由于叙利亚被美国、俄罗斯和土耳其三家长期把控，欧盟在中东地区影响力的“落脚点”仅剩“半个黎巴嫩”（黎巴嫩政府控制区域）。对欧盟来说，如果能控制叙利亚局势，别的不说，欧盟在中东地区的影响将得到极大增强，战略腾挪空间将得到极大扩展。所以，欧盟一定会在叙利亚寻找自己的代理人。由于库尔德人势力始终为美国所控制，所以，欧盟的代理人一定会与库尔德人势力有所区别。如果“沙姆解放组织”有意投靠欧盟，其将会变得与库尔德人势力、土耳其都有所区别。

叙利亚新政府要收缴全国武器，虽然说是“刀枪入库”，但目的是为“问鼎中原”，也就是要统一叙利亚。但在我们看来，叙利亚新政府想要实现收缴全国武器“铸十二铜人”恐怕难上加难。别的不说，扩散的20万叙利亚前政府军只要有钱，有人，有底盘，就不愁钱，总会有人会找上门来由此也不难看出。

●国际社会更多会通过与中东地区相关国家积极展开合作，间接影响叙利亚局势，其中沙特是一个不错的合作对象

对国际社会来说，对于叙利亚局势后续发展，第一，并不着急介入；第二，没有必要直接介入（危险是，有可能波及波斯湾的安全问题。不过，反过来说，如果局势真的向这个方向发展，某种意义上说，也许距离叙利亚再乱结束也就不远了）。也就是说，国际社会更多会通过与中东地区相关国家积极展开合作，通过间接的方式影响叙利亚局势。在所有可以合作的国家中，沙特就是一个不错的合作对象。

我们注意到12月23日，有关沙特阿拉伯驻阿富汗大使馆宣布恢复所有使馆活动的新闻报道。

在我们看来，沙特阿拉伯驻阿富汗大使馆宣布恢复所有使馆活动，是沙特为承认阿富汗临时政府做铺垫，做准备。如果阿富汗问题能够摆平，至少上合在地缘上能够保持联通，何况，阿富汗本地资源矿产非常丰富，是未来“一带一路”倡议的重要节点。此外，沙特是阿富汗重要邻国之一的巴基斯坦的“金主”，而中国更多站在逊尼派穆斯林一边，巴基斯坦就是逊尼派伊斯兰国家，而且还是所有伊斯兰国家中唯一拥有核武的国家，更有可能成为所有伊斯兰国家中第一个拥有第五代机的国家。所以，我们对沙特阿拉伯驻阿富汗大使馆宣布恢复所有使馆活动表示赞赏和欢迎。

●美军宁可承认最不可能出现的“误击”也要回避一种后果极其严重的“可能真相”——美军的C4ISR系统的“数据链”被“侵入”或被干扰

除了沙特之外，在中东地区大家不妨关注也门胡塞武装。

再次强调，如果伊朗不改弦更张，继续妥协，甚至彻底认怂，则不排除胡塞武装取代伊朗成为中东地区什叶派穆斯林新领袖的可能性（有很大的潜力，总有人会看中胡塞武装，如果其是可造之才的话）。

恰在这个时候，我们注意到美军和也门胡塞武装就美军“F-18”战机被击落一事各执一词的新闻报道。

在我们的观察与评估中，美军这架红海“坠落”的“F-18”战机，除了美军自认“误击”这种可能的解释，以及也门胡塞武装认领将其击落的这种可能的解释，网友们想过没？还有一种可能，且可能性相对最大的一种解释，那就是美军的C4ISR系统的“数据链”被“侵入”或被干扰，或者“F-18”战机上的敌我识别系统遭到严重干扰而出现大问题（作为一个单独系统被干扰）。如果说海湾战争期间，曾上演的美军“误击”友军是真“误击”的话，那么时隔几十年的改进和升级，美军的敌我识别系统恐怕没有那么容易再次出现“误击”，而且是美军“误击”美军，而非友军。

为何这种可能性“相对最大”？理由之一就是，是美军宁可承认一种“最不可能出现的美军自己之间的“误击”以回避一种后果极其严重的“可能真相”，也就是上面我们提到美军的C4ISR系统的“数据链”被“侵入”或被干扰。对此，我们最后想要强调的是：

1. 一旦这一猜测得到有效证实，那将意味着整个美军的作战体系出现重大缺陷和漏洞，以至于此事绝对“兹事体大”到足以彻底颠覆维持支撑美帝世界霸权，尤其是金融霸权的重要基石——美帝军事霸权，哪怕是经历俄乌战争，乃至中东乱局后的相对军事霸权（美航母早被拖鞋军打的到处逃窜）；第二，至于什么原因导致美军的作战体系出现重大缺陷和漏洞。当然，与美国制造业大幅衰退，军工技术落后，财政紧张等因素有关，但还有一种可能性不小的原因就是胡塞武装能真的捡到了“漂流瓶”；第三，“漂流瓶”当然是我们的一种调侃，具体指的则是由于也门胡塞武装占据的地区，在地理上（海、空、陆进入都很容易）很容易获得各方的援助和支持，其中不乏某些中东国家在珠海航展“大购物”带回去的某些物件儿，比如，某款无人机载“综合电子战吊舱”。

中国产多款无人机早已出口到许多国家中东国家，如沙特、阿联酋等，就曾经引进过我们的“彩虹-4”“翼龙-2”。由于此前胡塞武装和沙特之间曾多有交手，所以，他们对这两款无人机并不感到陌生，在国际社会有意通过与中东地区相关国家积极展开合作的方式影响叙利亚局势后续走向的背景下再去观察“漂流瓶”的事情以及美军讳莫如深竭力回避的那件事儿，真可谓细思极恐。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Monday, December 23, 2024, Issue No. 1138

Discussion on the Houthi Armed Forces' Possibility of Really Picking Up a "Message in a Bottle," Amidst Conflicting Accounts over the "Downing of a US F-18 Fighter Jet" Incident

[Media Reports]
On December 21, US Central Command issued a statement that a "friendly fire" incident occurred during a mission in the Middle East, where the USS Gettysburg missile cruiser "accidentally fired" at and hit a US F/A-18 fighter jet.

On December 22, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei predicted that after the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Syrians would launch a new resistance against the country's new leadership.

[Discussion Summary]

● Western countries are both "adversaries" and "potential partners," which is the best interpretation of Russia's "Afghan calculations"

We have noted Russian President Vladimir Putin's remarks about how "the previous generation of politicians 'destroyed the country.'"

Putin pointed out: "In our modern history, there was a stage when the previous generation of politicians... were even willing to destroy their own country, hoping that Russia could become part of the so-called 'civilized world.' The United States and its allies have never intended to accept Russia as an equal partner, but rather sought to completely destroy it. Once Russia's strength is weakened, and it becomes weaker than it is now, (the West) will try to deliver a fatal blow, rather than allowing it to become an equal partner and member of this 'civilized world.'"

Putin mentioned that despite this past, Russia is still willing to cooperate with the West because Western countries are both "adversaries" and "potential partners." If Russia sees an opportunity to establish relations with other countries, it will seize it, but it will never do so at the expense of its own interests.

The above content is probably a lesson learned by Russian President Putin, summarized from his experiences since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24, 2022, to the present day. In fact, during Putin's term, Russia also harbored unrealistic fantasies about "becoming part of the so-called 'Western civilized world.'" The Minsk Agreements, "personally witnessed" by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former French President François Hollande, were made known to the world as a farce deliberately designed to deceive Russia in preparation for the Ukraine war, leaving Putin himself bitter about being so deliberately deceived and unable to anticipate the Russia-Ukraine war in advance.

Speaking of the Minsk Agreements, we must mention the turmoil in Ukraine in 2014. It was a major international event led by European interests under the dominance of Western capital, the first of its kind since World War II. Similar to the deception of the Minsk Agreements, a key figure was involved, namely former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In our view, she remains, to this day, the most insidious politician among all Western politicians, without exception!

There are other politicians who play similar "insidious games," such as Ma Ying-jeou.

On December 20, Ma Ying-jeou led a group of Taiwanese youth to visit the Museum of Evidence of the Crimes of Unit 731 of the Japanese Invading Army. The message he conveyed throughout the visit was simply, "I am Chinese." We will not discuss the intentions behind his behavior for now, but let's talk about how Ma Ying-jeou actually practices the phrase "I am Chinese."

In our view, the most severe period of "de-Sinicization" in Taiwan was not during the Lee Teng-hui era or the Chen Shui-bian era, but rather during the Ma Ying-jeou era. During his eight years as the leader of Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou not only cultivated a large number of "natural independents" (young people) but also further emulated Lee Teng-hui in splitting the Kuomintang. Therefore, we have always referred to figures like Ma Ying-jeou as "covert (Taiwan) independence advocates." Their negative impact and destructiveness are far greater than that of "overt independence advocates." As for the purpose of his leading a delegation to the mainland and visiting the Museum of Evidence of the Crimes of Unit 731, in simple terms, it is because, amid the fierce internal struggles within the United States and even the West surrounding the recent US presidential election, Ma Ying-jeou has never felt so keenly that the international situation has indeed evolved to the point where the mainland is ready to reclaim Taiwan at any time. Biden is a madman who will throw everything aside for his own selfish interests, so Ma Ying-jeou's visit to the mainland this time is to try every means to stabilize the mainland and even prevent it from reclaiming Taiwan.

Let's shift the focus of our discussion back to Putin's speech. Although Putin has reflected on the "excessive trust; in the West by himself and even the previous generation of Russian leaders, which nearly led to the destruction of the country, we also note that Putin still emphasizes that Russia is willing to cooperate with the West because Western countries are both "adversaries" and "potential partners." In our view, this statement is the best interpretation of Russia's "Afghan calculations." Russia's "Afghan calculations" encompass two levels: on the one hand, leveraging China's power to balance and constrain Western influence; on the other hand, leveraging Western power to balance and constrain China's influence. It is worth mentioning that despite the Russia-Ukraine war lasting for nearly three years, there are still many people in Russian society who are wary, guarded, and even hostile towards China, and there are still many who want to integrate into the Western world. Therefore, for Russia, we are more concerned about what it does rather than what it says.

● Parties intentionally intervening in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation will all seek their own proxies in Syria

We have noticed news reports that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei anticipates new resistance from the Syrian people against the new leadership in the country after the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad.

On December 23, the new Syrian government no longer allowed Iranian aircraft to fly over its airspace to transport weapons to Hezbollah, forcing Iranian weapons transport planes to reroute through Turkish airspace. Clearly, after the Assad regime is overthrown, Iran's painstakingly constructed "Shiite resistance arc" has been severed in Syria, which has been proven by facts. Faced with such a huge strategic loss, Khamenei himself may be to blame.

After the Assad regime is overthrown, it is certain that new anti-government forces will emerge. Or, to put it another way, parties intentionally intervening in the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, including Russia, the European Union, Turkey, Iran, etc., will all seek their own proxies. It is even possible that some existing forces may switch sides, for example, the "Syrian Liberation Front" abandoning Turkey and aligning with the European Union.

Before Syria plunges into chaos again, due to Syria being long controlled by the United States, Russia, and Turkey, the European Union's "foothold" for influence in the Middle East was only "half of Lebanon" (the area controlled by the Lebanese government). For the European Union, if it can control the situation in Syria, its influence in the Middle East will be greatly enhanced, and its strategic maneuvering space will be greatly expanded. Therefore, the European Union will certainly seek its own proxies in Syria. Since the Kurdish forces have always been controlled by the United States, the European Union's proxies will certainly be distinct from the Kurdish forces. If the "Syrian Liberation Front" intends to align with the European Union, it will differentiate itself from both the Kurdish forces and Turkey.

The new Syrian government aims to collect all weapons nationwide, ostensibly for "storing weapons in armories," but the real goal is to unify Syria. However, in our view, it will be extremely difficult for the new Syrian government to achieve the goal of collecting all weapons and "casting twelve bronze statues." Among other things, the 200,000 dispersed former Syrian government soldiers, as long as they have money, people, and territory, will not be short of resources, and someone will always come knocking on their door.

● The international community will more likely indirectly influence the Syrian situation by actively cooperating with relevant countries in the Middle East, among which Saudi Arabia is a good partner

For the international community, regarding the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, first, there is no urgency to intervene; second, there is no need for direct intervention (the danger is that it may affect the security of the Persian Gulf. However, conversely, if the situation really develops in this direction, in a sense, perhaps the end of the chaos in Syria is not far off). That is to say, the international community will more likely indirectly influence the Syrian situation by actively cooperating with relevant countries in the Middle East. Among all the countries that can cooperate, Saudi Arabia is a good partner.

We have noticed news reports on December 23 that the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Afghanistan announced the resumption of all embassy activities.

In our view, the announcement by the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Afghanistan to resume all embassy activities is a prelude and preparation for Saudi Arabia to recognize the interim government of Afghanistan. If the Afghan issue can be resolved, at least the Shanghai Cooperation Organization can maintain geographical connectivity, and besides, Afghanistan is rich in local resources and minerals, making it an important node for the future "Belt and Road" initiative. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia is the "patron" of Pakistan, an important neighbor of Afghanistan, and China stands more on the side of Sunni Muslims. Pakistan is a Sunni Muslim country and the only Islamic country with nuclear weapons, and it is more likely to become the first Islamic country to possess fifth-generation fighter jets. Therefore, we applaud and welcome the announcement by the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Afghanistan to resume all embassy activities.

● The US military would rather admit the least likely "friendly fire" than avoid a "possible truth" with extremely serious consequences – the "data link" of the US military's C4ISR system has been "infiltrated" or interfered with

In addition to Saudi Arabia, everyone in the Middle East can also pay attention to the Houthi armed forces in Yemen.

We emphasize once again that if Iran does not change its ways, continue to compromise, or even completely backtrack, it cannot be ruled out that the Houthi armed forces will replace Iran as the new leader of Shiite Muslims in the Middle East (they have great potential, and someone will definitely take notice of the Houthi armed forces if they are deemed promising).

At this moment, we have noticed news reports where the US military and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen have differing accounts regarding the downing of a US "F-18" fighter jet.

In our observation and assessment, apart from the possible explanations acknowledged by the US military as "friendly fire" and the Houthi armed forces claiming responsibility for downing the jet, have netizens considered another possibility? There is another, relatively most likely explanation, which is that the "data link" of the US military's C4ISR system has been "infiltrated" or interfered with, or the enemy-friend identification system on the "F-18" fighter jet has been severely interfered with and encountered major issues (as a separate system being interfered with). If the "friendly fire" incident involving US forces during the Gulf War was a genuine mistake, then after decades of improvements and upgrades, it is unlikely that the US military's enemy-friend identification system would make such a mistake again, especially with US forces firing on other US forces, rather than allied forces.

Why is this possibility "relatively most likely"? One reason is that the US military would rather admit a "least likely friendly fire incident" among its own forces to avoid a "possible truth" with extremely serious consequences, which is the "data link" of the US military's C4ISR system being "infiltrated" or interfered with, as we mentioned above. Regarding this, we would like to emphasize the following:

First, once this speculation is effectively confirmed, it will mean that the entire US military's combat system has major defects and vulnerabilities, which is so significant that it could thoroughly disrupt and undermine the important cornerstone that sustains US hegemony in the world, especially its financial hegemony – US military hegemony, even after experiencing the Russia-Ukraine war and the turmoil in the Middle East (US aircraft carriers have been fleeing everywhere after being attacked by the "slipper army"). Second, as for the reasons why the US military's combat system has major defects and vulnerabilities, of course, it is related to the significant decline of the US manufacturing industry, outdated military technology, and financial constraints. However, there is also a not-insignificant possibility that the Houthi armed forces really found a "message in a bottle." Third, "message in a bottle" is, of course, a metaphor we use. Specifically, it refers to the fact that the areas occupied by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen are geographically (easily accessible by sea, air, and land) conducive to receiving assistance and support from various parties, including certain Middle Eastern countries that may have acquired certain items at the Zhuhai Airshow, such as a certain type of "integrated electronic warfare pod" for drones.

Multiple Chinese-made drones have already been exported to many Middle Eastern countries. For example, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have previously introduced our "Rainbow-4" and "Wing Loong-2" drones. Since the Houthi armed forces and Saudi Arabia have clashed many times before, they are familiar with these two types of drones. Against the backdrop of the international community's intention to influence the subsequent development of the Syrian situation by actively cooperating with relevant countries in the Middle East, observing the "message in a bottle" incident and the matter that the US military is tight-lipped about and desperately trying to avoid is truly chilling.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

原文作者公众号：

广州市贯日翻译服务有限公司为东方时评-衍射传媒/衍射咨询提供翻译支持

翻译请联系http://www.en-ch.com/chcontact.htm

手机微信13924166640

广州市越秀区环市东路世界贸易中心大厦南塔24楼 020-86266990