2024年12月21日，星期六，第1136期

透过简单回顾“地中海计划”，小谈为什么欧盟如此积极地介入叙利亚局势的后续发展

【媒体报道】

12月20日，埃隆·马斯克正试图影响美国以外的政治，这一点变得越来越明显。现在，这位亿万富翁和美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的顾问利用马格德堡的疑似袭击事件再次介入德国的竞选活动：他对德国总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨发起正面攻击。

12月20日，美国当选总统特朗普说，如果欧盟成员国不购买更多美国石油和天然气，就要对欧盟加征关税。

12月21日，喀山遭到无人机袭击，两栋高层居民楼以及一栋四层建筑受到一定破坏，但无人员伤亡。当日共记录到八架无人机飞抵，其中六架袭击居民楼，一架试图袭击一家工业企业，还有一架在河面上空被拦截。

【讨论纪要】

●欧盟（老欧洲）“地中海计划”的心思恐怕已经被激活的初步评估得到了进一步证实

12月20日，美国当选总统特朗普表示，如果欧盟成员国不购买更多美国石油和天然气，就要对欧盟加征关税。

有数据显示，欧洲主要国家，德国、意大利、荷兰、英国、法国中，对进口天然气的依赖度分别为55.2%、38.7%、29.1%、15.7%、10.2%。也就是说，俄乌战争导致俄罗斯断供天然气对德国的影响最大。根据联邦能源与水工业协会的数据，自去年初以来，尽管德国进口的液化天然气（LNG）中有83%从美国购买，但美国人似乎还不满意。

无独有偶，12月20日，埃隆·马斯克借马格德堡的疑似袭击事件再次介入德国的竞选活动，公开呼吁德国总理朔尔茨下台。

由此可见，在美国眼中，欧盟不过是美国的“小跟班”，美国根本没把欧洲利益放在眼里。而对于欧盟这一美国“主要盟友”，美国人的表现依旧傲慢自大。此外也能看出，表面看，似乎由于叙利亚局势的骤然变化导致欧洲急切想要介入叙利亚局势、进而导致欧美矛盾激化，但实际上，这些矛盾的深层指向的是欧洲能源安全问题。对美国，包括俄罗斯而言，以能源供应、能源成本等问题，是主要控制、遏制欧盟的战略手段之一。所以，叙利亚局势骤然变化不过是将欧美之间的这组早已存在的矛盾凸显出来而已。或者说，欧盟在叙利亚局势骤然后，突然看到了在能源安全问题上摆脱美国和俄罗斯的绝佳机会。

讨论到这里，我们就不妨说说另一个问题，那就是，在叙利亚局势后续发展过程中，为什么土耳其一招手，欧盟就立刻介入其中。

上述旧闻勾起了我们很多回忆，首当其冲的就是“地中海计划”。为了让大家能够准确地理解，我们不妨回顾《东方时事解读·时事节简版》2008年7月25日中的一段内容，原文如下：

……

“地中海计划”原本是以扩大在地中海地区影响为目的的欧盟“南下战略”，也就是1995年提出的“巴塞罗那进程”的“变种”。覆盖了诸多重要的中东国家，甚至包括以色列、埃及这些所谓“美国的盟友”，以及叙利亚、利比亚这些“美国的敌人”。不仅如此，该计划的战略意图（通过整合地中海沿岸的产油国，控制中东、非洲能源，并在这一过程中逐渐用欧元将美元从“地中海联盟成员国”中排挤出去）与美国的“大中东计划”直接冲突，更加严重的是以色列这个“中东钢钉”的未来也多了个“新选择”，美国的中东主导权显然受到了重大冲击。因此，美国对“地中海计划”始终是欲除之而后快。

一旦地中海计划顺利实施，由于涉及中东、特别是非洲利益，欧盟与“中俄”之间的战略利益也会随之冲突，“中俄”在中东，甚至在非洲的影响也将受到一定冲击。因此，“地中海计划”能够持续的前提是必须得到“中美俄”中“大多数”的支持，或者“不反对”才行，显然在欧盟拿出“足够的诚意”换取“中美俄”中“大多数”的“稳定支持”之前，第二种版本也注定会道路坎坷。

……

通过上面的回顾与新闻报道不难看出：

1. 12月11日的讨论我们就“叙利亚乱局出现后，欧盟（老欧洲）‘地中海计划’的心思恐怕已经被激活”的初步评估得到了进一步证实；

第二，“地中海计划”的主要战略意图之一就是通过整合地中海沿岸的产油国，控制中东、非洲能源，并在这一过程中逐渐用欧元将美元从“地中海联盟成员国”中排挤出去。或者说“地中海计划”若想顺利进行下去，非洲（北非）和中东，两条能源管线至少一条，最好两条要能够打通。所以，2011年，法国带领北约攻打利比亚，美国一开始是不同意的。而法国前总统萨科齐获得3年牢狱之灾就与其接受卡扎菲5000万欧元政治献金，上位后又翻脸不认人密切相关；

第三，发生在2011年的利比亚战争，以及发生在同年的叙利亚内战，实际上阻塞了“地中海计划”想顺利进行下去所需要的非洲（北非）和中东输欧能源管线。值得一提的是，直到阿萨德政权被颠覆之前，由于叙利亚主要被美、俄（含阿萨德政权）、土三方占据，所以，无论从美国这里（以幼发拉底河东岸为主的库尔德人控制区），还是俄罗斯这里（以幼发拉底河西岸为主的叙利亚阿萨德政府控制区），中东输欧能源管线都被截断。

第四，阿萨德政权被颠覆后，土耳其支持的叙利亚反对派武装“沙姆解放阵线”夺取政权，自然对欧盟是千载难逢的好机会。对土耳其而言，一手捏着俄罗斯的“土耳其流”，另一手如果能捏着欧盟的中东能源管线，感觉自然不要太好。

欧洲介入叙利亚局势后续发展，某种意义上说是拜登一手促成的，这也是有损美国国家长远利益的。对特朗普来说，这意味着如果其能够顺利上位，之后的叙利亚局势（中东局势）只会变为更加混乱和复杂。所以，对欧洲进行敲打和警告，主要是特朗普在出手，对此，拜登则一言不发。

●俄罗斯决策层需要保持高度警惕，小心中了对方“声东击西”的“道儿”！

某种意义上说，为了平衡美国的影响力，在欧盟的默许下，土耳其透过叙利亚临时政府，向俄罗斯“发出请柬”，邀请俄罗斯加入叙利亚局势后续发展，也是拜登一手促成的。拜登要的就是一个“乱”字。需要强调的是，除了在中东方向“拉”俄罗斯外，拜登也通过威逼的方式在乌克兰方向“推”俄罗斯。在拜登看来，如果俄罗斯不能忍，那么无论在乌克兰方向，还是在中东方向（最好是中东方向），俄罗斯做出反击他都乐见。如果俄罗斯还想要继续等，等特朗普正式上台，那就顺道继续推动对俄罗斯“温水煮青蛙”，如果能在诸如，瓦解俄白联盟，实质性解除俄罗斯核威慑有效性，颠覆普京政权，甚至短期内完成对俄罗斯实质性消化等方面取得重大进展，他和特朗普之间也就不用像现在这样恶斗不断了。

经过几期的讨论，我们认为“白俄罗斯出事”很可能在拜登2025年1月20日正式下台前要做的一件事。而瓦解俄白联盟，是实质性解除俄罗斯核威慑有效性的关键必要一步。所以，在这个背景下我们观察12月21日喀山遭到无人机袭击事件，俄罗斯决策层需要保持高度警惕，小心中了对方“声东击西”的“道儿”！也就是声东（喀山）击西（白俄罗斯）。

拜登似乎已经消失了，只专心于搞自己的阴谋和算计，而特朗普似乎一夜之间“提前上位”，取代拜登成为美国的新政府。所以，从这个角度去观察，“声东击西”的“道儿”对白俄罗斯，尤其是俄罗斯更加危险。

有消息称，俄罗斯打击了几个北约国家在基辅的使馆。如果这一消息最终得到证实，由于一国大使馆被看作这国在驻在国的“领土”，显然，俄罗斯通过这种方式对西方发出了“最后通牒”式警告。而在这背后恐怕是，俄罗斯如果再没有任何动作，白俄罗斯真的要跑了。但种种迹象表明，俄罗斯似乎还是想要等待特朗普正式上台。

●如果伊朗始终烂泥巴扶不上墙、彻底认怂，不排除也门胡塞武装成为什叶派抵抗新领袖的可能性

让我们将讨论的焦点转回叙利亚局势后续发展上。

目前，对于自认为“大胜”唾手可得的内塔尼亚胡小集团来说，可谓形势一片大好。所以，其目前无意和伊朗全面爆发一场战争。但以色列赢得“大胜”是不是拜登想要的。所以，在叙利亚局势后续发展问题上，拜登政府大概率会围绕以色列与土耳其争夺叙利亚势力范围继续拱火，甚至由此引发土耳其和以色列兵戎相见也是有可能的。当然，最理想的状态是引导以色列去赢得“小胜”，将伊朗和以色列之间的关系向不断紧张方面推动，将局面向把美军拖下水的方向推动。所以，在伊朗内部传出不稳定、不和谐声音（伊朗最高精神领袖哈梅内伊和伊朗总统佩泽希齐杨就如何定性对土关系的问题出现公开分歧，伊朗内乱的苗头已经出现）的问题上，拜登更希望看到伊朗内部能最终统一意见，一致对外，尤其是一致对以。

对国际社会来说，如果伊朗能够最终达成内部统一，一致对外，瞄着伊拉克方向谋取重返叙利亚固然也是一条途径，但主要的方向我们再次建议伊朗决策层将其放背后的中亚才是。也就是，努力促进中俄实现实质性联手，稳定中亚，安定南亚，打通“中亚通道”与“南亚通道”，此后，借伊朗为战略支点将与西方博弈的前线推到中东（叙利亚）。值得一提的是，在以色列来眼中，胡塞武装之所以很难对付，除了距离以色列相对较远外，还和他们占据曼德海峡以及红海沿岸（东岸）这一海运交通要冲密切相关，毫不夸张地说，任何人随便给几个“漂流瓶”就够胡塞武装“发财”的。甚至，在我们看来，如果伊朗始终烂泥巴扶不上墙、彻底认怂，不排除也门胡塞武装成为什叶派抵抗新领袖的可能性。

声明：具体内容如有出入，请以“东方时事解读”音频为准。

Saturday, December 21, 2024, Issue No. 1136

A brief review of the "Mediterranean Plan" will tell you why the EU has been so actively involved in the subsequent development of the situation in Syria

[Media Coverage]

On December 20, it became increasingly clear that Elon Musk was trying to influence politics outside the United States. Now the billionaire and adviser to US President-elect Donald Trump has once again intervened in the German election campaign using the suspected attack in Magdeburg: he launched a frontal attack on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

On December 20, US President-elect Donald Trump said that EU member states would impose tariffs on the EU if they did not buy more US oil and gas.

On December 21, Kazan was hit by a drone attack, and two high-rise residential buildings and a four-story building were damaged to some extent, but there were no casualties. A total of eight drones were recorded arriving that day, six of which attacked residential buildings, one tried to attack an industrial enterprise, and one was intercepted over the river.

【Discussion Summary】

● The initial assessment that the EU (old Europe's) "Mediterranean Plan" has probably been activated has been further confirmed

On December 20, US President-elect Donald Trump said that EU member states would impose tariffs on the EU if they did not buy more US oil and gas.

According to data, major European countries, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and France, are dependent on imported natural gas of 55.2%, 38.7%, 29.1%, 15.7%, and 10.2% respectively. In other words, the Russian-Ukrainian war has caused Russia to cut off natural gas supplies and has the greatest impact on Germany. According to the Federal Association for Energy and Water Industry, Americans do not seem to be satisfied since the beginning of last year, despite the fact that 83% of Germany's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are purchased from the United States.

Coincidentally, on December 20, Elon Musk took advantage of the suspected attack in Magdeburg to intervene in Germany's election campaign again, publicly calling for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to step down.

It can be seen from this that in the eyes of the United States, the EU is nothing more than a "small follower" of the United States, and the United States does not take European interests into account at all. And with regard to the European Union, the "main ally" of the United States, the Americans are still arrogant. In addition, it can also be seen that on the surface, it seems that the sudden changes in the situation in Syria have led to Europe's eagerness to intervene in the Syrian situation, which in turn has led to the intensification of the contradictions between Europe and the United States, but in fact, the deep level of these contradictions points to the issue of European energy security. As far as the United States, including Russia, is concerned, energy supply, energy costs, and other issues are one of the main strategic means to control and contain the EU. Therefore, the sudden change in the situation in Syria only highlights this set of long-standing contradictions between Europe and the United States. In other words, the EU suddenly saw a great opportunity to get rid of the United States and Russia on the issue of energy security.

At this point, we might as well talk about another issue, that is, why does the EU immediately intervene in the subsequent developments of the Syrian situation whenever Turkey beckons?

The above old news brings back many memories for us, the first of which is the "Mediterranean Project". In order for you to understand accurately, we may wish to review a passage from the July 25, 2008 edition of "Interpretation of Oriental Current Affairs: Brief Version of Current Affairs", which is as follows:

……

The Mediterranean Plan” was originally the EU's "southbound strategy" aimed at expanding its influence in the Mediterranean region, i.e., a "variant" of the "Barcelona Process" proposed in 1995. It covers many important Middle Eastern countries, including the so-called "allies of the United States" such as Israel and Egypt, as well as the "enemies of the United States" such as Syria and Libya. Not only that, but the strategic intent of the plan (by integrating the oil-producing countries along the Mediterranean coast, controlling the energy resources of the Middle East and Africa, and gradually squeezing out the dollar from the "Mediterranean Alliance members" with the euro in the process) is in direct conflict with the US "Greater Middle East Plan", and what is more serious is that Israel, the "steel nail of the Middle East", has a "new choice" for the future, and the US dominance in the Middle East has obviously been greatly impacted. Therefore, the United States has always wanted to get rid of the "Mediterranean Plan" as soon as possible.

Once the Mediterranean plan is successfully implemented, the strategic interests of the EU and "China and Russia" will also conflict because the interests of the Middle East, especially Africa, will also be involved, and the influence of "China and Russia" in the Middle East and even in Africa will also be affected to a certain extent. Therefore, the premise for the "Mediterranean plan" to be sustainable is that it must be supported by the "majority" of "China, the United States, and Russia", or "not opposed." Obviously, the second version is also doomed to a bumpy road before the EU shows "sufficient sincerity" in exchange for the "stable support" of the "majority" of "China, the United States, and Russia."

……

From the above review and news reports, it is not difficult to see that:

Firstly, In the discussion on 11 December, our preliminary assessment that "after the chaos in Syria, the mind of the European Union's (old European) 'Mediterranean plan' may have been activated" was further confirmed;

Secondly, one of the main strategic intentions of the "Mediterranean Plan" is to control the energy resources of the Middle East and Africa by integrating the oil-producing countries along the Mediterranean coast, and in the process gradually displace the US dollar from the "Union for the Mediterranean" member states with the euro. In other words, for the "Mediterranean Plan" to proceed smoothly, at least one of the two energy pipelines from Africa (North Africa) and the Middle East to Europe must be open, and ideally, both should be open. Therefore, in 2011, France led NATO to attack Libya, and the United States did not agree to it at first. Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy's three-year prison sentence is closely related to his acceptance of Gaddafi's 50 million euro political donation, and after taking office, he turned his face and denied anyone;

Thirdly, the war in Libya in 2011 and the civil war in Syria in the same year actually blocked the energy pipelines from Africa (North Africa) and the Middle East to Europe that the "Mediterranean Project" needed to go ahead. It is worth mentioning that until the Assad regime was overturned, Syria was mainly occupied by the US, Russia (including the Assad regime), and Turkey, resulting in the energy pipelines from the Middle East to Europe being cut off, whether from the US side (dominated by Kurdish-controlled areas on the east bank of the Euphrates River) or the Russian side (dominated by the Syrian government-controlled areas on the west bank of the Euphrates River).

Fourthly, after the overthrow of the Assad regime, the seizure of power by the Syrian opposition armed "Tahrir al-Sham Front" supported by Turkey is naturally a golden opportunity for the EU. For Turkey, it would be very nice to hold Russia's "Turkish Stream" with one hand and the EU's Middle East energy pipeline with the other.

Europe's involvement in the subsequent development of the situation in Syria was, in a sense, single-handedly promoted by Biden, which is also detrimental to the long-term interests of the United States. For Trump, this means that if he succeeds in taking office, the situation in Syria (the Middle East) will only become more chaotic and complicated. Therefore, the main thing that knocks and warns Europe is Trump's shot, to which Biden does not say a word.

● The Russian decision-makers need to stay highly alert and be cautious of falling into the opponent's strategy of feigning one direction while attacking another!

In a sense, in order to balance the influence of the United States, with the acquiescence of the European Union, Turkey "sent an invitation" to Russia through the Syrian interim government, inviting Russia to join the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, which was also facilitated by Biden. What Biden wants is " ‌”chaos". It should be emphasized that, in addition to 'pulling' Russia in the Middle East direction, Biden is also 'pushing' Russia in the Ukraine direction through coercion. In Biden's view, if Russia can't bear it, then he will be happy to see Russia counterattack, whether in the direction of Ukraine, or in the direction of the Middle East (preferably in the Middle East). If Russia still wants to continue to wait for Trump to officially come to power, then by the way, it will continue to promote the "warm water boiled frog" against Russia, and if it can make significant progress in such areas as the collapse of the Russian-Belarusian alliance, the substantive lifting of the effectiveness of Russia's nuclear deterrence, the subversion of the Putin regime, and even the completion of the substantive digestion of Russia in the short term, there will be no need for him and Trump to continue to fight as viciously as they do now.

After several issues of discussion, we believe that "something happens in Belarus" is likely to be one thing to do before Biden officially steps down on January 20, 2025. The dismantling of the Russian-Belarusian alliance is a crucial and necessary step in substantively removing the effectiveness of Russia's nuclear deterrent. Therefore, in this context, when observing the drone attack on Kazan on December 21st, the Russian decision-makers need to remain highly vigilant and beware of being deceived by the opponent's tactics of 'pretending to attack one place (Kazan) while actually targeting another (Belarus)'. This is a classic case of 'misdirection' in strategic terms.

Biden seems to have disappeared and is only concentrating on his own intrigues and calculations, while Trump seems to have "ascended to power" overnight, replacing Biden as the new administration of the United States. Therefore, from this point of view, the "strategy" of "feigning one direction while attacking another " is more dangerous for Belarus, especially Russia.

There is information that Russia struck at the embassies of several NATO countries in Kiev. If this information is finally confirmed, since a country's embassy is considered to be the "territory" of the country in which it is stationed, it is clear that Russia is issuing an "ultimatum" warning to the West in this way. And behind this, I am afraid, if Russia does not make any more moves, Belarus will really run. But by all indications, Russia still seems to want to wait for Trump to officially take office.

● If Iran continues to be ineffective and completely submits, the possibility of Yemen's Houthis becoming the new leader of the Shiite resistance cannot be ruled out

Let us turn the focus of our discussion back to the subsequent development of the situation in Syria.

At the moment, the situation is very good for Netanyahu's small group, which believes that a "big victory" is within reach. Therefore, it has no intention of breaking out a full-scale war with Iran at this time. But a "big victory" for Israel is not what Biden wants. Therefore, on the issue of the subsequent development of the Syrian situation, the Biden administration is likely to continue fanning the flames around the competition for influence in Syria between Israel and Turkey, potentially even leading to a military confrontation between Turkey and Israel. Of course, the ideal state of affairs is to guide Israel to win a "small victory", to push the relationship between Iran and Israel in the direction of increasing tensions, and to push the situation in the direction of dragging the US military into the water. Therefore, on the issue of instability and discord in Iran (Iran's Supreme Spiritual Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iranian President Pezeshizizian have openly disagreed on how to characterize relations with Turkey, and signs of civil strife in Iran have already appeared), Biden would prefer to see Iran ultimately unify its internal opinions and present a united front externally, especially towards Israel.

For the international community, if Iran can ultimately achieve internal unity and unanimity in its external stance, it is certainly one way to seek a return to Syria through the direction of Iraq. However, the main direction should be to advise Iranian decision-makers to once again prioritize Central Asia. In other words, efforts will be made to promote the substantive cooperation between China and Russia, stabilize Central Asia, stabilize South Asia, and open up the "Central Asia Corridor" and the "South Asia Corridor", and then use Iran as a strategic fulcrum to push the front line of the game with the West to the Middle East (Syria). It is worth mentioning that in the eyes of Israel, the reason why the Houthis are difficult to deal with is not only the relative distance from Israel, but also closely related to their occupation of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea coast (east coast), which are key maritime communications. In our view, if Iran continues to be ineffective and completely submits, it cannot be ruled out that Yemen's Houthis will emerge as the new leader of Shiite resistance.

Disclaimer: In case of any discrepancies in the specific content, please refer to the 'Eastern Current Affairs Interpretation Audio' for the most accurate information.

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