Geopolitical Analysis of the US withdrawal from Syria
Author: Mr. Baiyun
Translated by GuanRi Translation
Recent domestic and international situationcenters around two major issues. One iswhat the future of the Middle East will be when the US millitary forces withdraw from the Middle East. The otherishow the transnational capital will be integrated into and join China after the US financial defeat. This article will talk about the first issue and leave the other one for later discussion.
The current situation is, on the whole,in a big chaos, butit is like the moment before the dawn in the long run, andsoon the daybreak will come and everything will be clear and go positive. To put it directly, it can be said that the world is in chaos while the situation is good.
Let us first talk about the Middle East. The current focus of the Middle East is on the withdrawal of the United States troops and the attack on Kurdish armed forces by Turkey.
First, let’s see what the United States’ withdrawal from Syria means. It is a military failure of the United States in the Middle East and acompletefailure of the US Middle East strategy. This time we can even say it is an announcement of the US military defeat in Syria. From now on, the United States will not be able to win a partial war in the whole world, and it is impossible to win any military victory in any conflict on any scale.
Please remember this basic judgment: the US military is now no longer working.(Translated by GuanRi Translation
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Next, let's talk about why the United States has to withdraw its troops from Syria. One reasonis that the United States failed to complete its established war goals in Syria. If you lose, you have to retreat. That’s not difficult to understand. On the other hand, this has something to do with the geopolitical shift of the United States.
In its former geopolitical strategy, the United States believed that the Soviet Union(Russia today) was the biggest threat to Europe and the United States because the West had been threatened by the Soviet (Russia today) for a long time. In their geostrategy, the Soviet (Russia today) has always been the heartland of the Eurasian continent. The Soviet (Russia today) has been the top priority since World War IIin America’s geopolitical strategy. The second priority is the Middle East. That’s because the control of the Middle East means, first,the stop of Russia from going south andrushing out of the Black Sea to the Indian Ocean. Second, it means the control of the oil in the Middle East, binding the credit of the dollar to the oil trade and collecting protection fees. Third,it means the control of the main seaway and monopolization of the trade between the East and West, thustruncatingthe Eurasia on the sea road. Fourth, it means ifUkraine is under control, the Eurasian continent will be cut off from the land and the integration of Eurasiawill be prevented. Therefore, the Middle Eastand Ukraine are both very importantin America’s geopolitical strategy.
In this big game, Turkey and Ukraineare the two key channels connecting the East and West. The cutting- off of the Ukrainian passage led Turkey to decide to leave the United States and reopen a main passage. This is in the interest of Russia andof Europe, and more in line with Turkey's interests, because when the United States blocks Ukraine,Turkey will become the new main channel in the future. The benefits of tolls will be huge, and it is a big business that brings big money.
Why did Turkey dare to go against the United States and stand with Russia? because the benefitsare enormous. And with the support of China, Russia and Europe, Erdogan did not take the United States seriously.
In this game of chess layed out by the United States, China has long been consideredas only a marginal country on the edge of the Eurasian continent. Yes, the Americans have long believed that China is only a marginal country.
How to suppressthis marginal country called China? the American strategists believe that it is enough to use the Japanese ally to check and balance it. Do you still remember the Diaoyu Islands incidenta few years ago? This is the standard operation of Americans in accordance with their geopolitical policies. However, it is impossible to clamp down on China with the strength of Japan.
In fact, Japan clearly cannot balance China. That is to say, the geopolitical policy of the United States containsa serious mistake in its perception of China.
The cost of this mistake is huge. Because when the United States realized that, it was too late to adjust its geopolitical strategy.
Why did Trump promise to withdraw troops from Syriawhen he came to power? Behind this is the issue of the geopolitical shift in the United States. It is until recently that American strategists realized that China is the heart of the Eurasian continent. The series of US actions, like Obama's Return to the Asia-Pacific strategy, the confrontation between China and the US in South China Sea, Trump's trade war against China, and the joint sanction with Russia against China that Trumpadvocated from the beginning, are all manifestations of this strategic turn. This is the underlying reason for the US withdrawal from Syria.
Solve one problem only to find another cropping out.When the US strategic center moves eastward and when more resources are allocated to the east, the west side will definitely have problems. The withdrawal of the United States from Syria, like the domino effect, has triggered a series of chain reactions.
After the US military retreated, it left a power vacuum in northern Syria. The Kurdish forces were abandoned by the United States.
Then, Turkey declared war on the Kurds. There are two purposes here. One is to defeat the Kurdsandeliminate them. The other is to act as a connector between the east and west of Eurasia, completing the welding of the channel.
We all know that if you want to weld something, you can't have impurities in the middle, otherwise the weld will not be strong. Cleaning up the Kurds is to clean up the impurities in the welding operation. Turkey first attacked the Kurds and cleaned up the impurities. At the same time, it also shelled the American bunker. Because as long as the Americans don't get out of the way, there will be impurities in this weld, making it impossible to weld firmly.
Seeingthe Turkish army shellingthe bunker of the US military, Trump was not calm any more, threatening that he would destroy the Turkish economy whileat the same time sending Pence to talk to Erdogan.
This is the real purpose of the America government in the Middle East. They have withdrawn their own troops, but they have to retain some impurities to obstruct the completion of the Middle Eastwelding operation. Moreover, they hope that the land-grabbing incident can provoke a conflict between Turkey and Russia. The American’s wishful thinking is to use onepeach to kill three men, provoking a big melee in the Middle East. But in fact, this is a step of fake chess, because compared with the benefits of channel welding, that piece of land is actually not a particularly huge benefit. Sure enough, Turkey and Russia did not fight, neither did Syria.(Translated by GuanRi Translation
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Trump knows well the art of trading, while Erdogan knowsbetter. Moreover, Erdogan’s strategic ability and strategic strength are obviously far beyond that of Trump. He is a person who can do big business.
Do you rememberthe Russian-Turkish-Iranagreement on the Middle East reached a few years ago? This is the channel soldering operation. The American government was exasperated at that. In order to obstruct the operation, it used ISIL to mix sand into the weld, and then the Kurds, causing the agreement to be obstructed for years. Now ISILiswiped out, the Kurds surrender, and the sand impurities are cleaned up completely.
The Americans originally wanted to create chaos by withdrawing their troops, but the result was that they lost more. The Kurds quickly surrendered, and Turkey and Russia quickly reached a new tacit agreement. If there is no accident, a new welding operation will soon be carried out among Russia,Turkey and Iran. When thisis done and the connection between the east and the west is successful,the United States will be squeezedout ofEurasia in land rights.
The United States will be excluded,Europe too. Although the fact that Turkey can act as a channelconnectingthe East and Westis in the interest and with the support of Europe, the Europeans can not control the switch of this channel, thus it completely loses the right to speak in the Middle East affairs.
For Europeans, once the channel welding is completed in the absence of Europe, it will mean that the future Europe will only be in an unfortunate geopolitical position when Eurasia's traffic on the seaand land is jointly monopolized by the above countries.
Remember this: united monopoly. This is the basic geopolitical environment of the world order for the many years to come.
Therefore, in this case, the Europeans are very self-contradictory. They hate the hegemony of the United States in exploiting Europe through Eurasiatraffic monopoly. At the same time, they cannot tolerate Europe’s absence from the Middle East affairs when the United States is gone.
What does Europe want? The first and best thing is to control Turkey and make it an agent for the Middle East affairs. But judging from the current situation, Erdogan wants to do big things. He wants to become a major shareholder instead of helping Europeans to hold equity. Hewants to cast off Europe. He even wants to take advantage of Europe. The second and betterthing is to make use of the United States in helping Europeto fight for some benefits in the Middle East affairs. This is like asking the tiger for its skin, a doomed petition. The last and worstthing is to do nothing but being exploited.
The Americans originally wanted to scamothers, only to find themselves suffer a great loss. The expressions on the faces of Trump and Pence clearly show their anger and exasperation.
“What should I do when I am so angry?”“Blow up two Iranian tankers to vent the rage.”
When Saudi Arabia saw it, “hey, what are you doing? You bombed the Iranian ships and said that I did it! What should I do if they revenge? You just want money? okay, I will raise the protection fee, and you have to increase your troops to protect me.”
It’s amazing that Saudi Arabia is willing to pay more protection fees when America bombed the Iranian tankers. I have to say that this is the art of extortion. Saudi Arabia gave moneyand the US sent more troops. The fact that the United States has increased its military presence in Saudi Arabia is not related to strategic purpose or long-term benefits,they just want to get some money. The US military, once arrogant and bullying, has now become a mercenary. It is like the saying: A phoenix in soup is not as good as a chicken alive. What an irony!
When Russia, Turkey and Iran complete the channel welding, other US allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, will become marginal countries in the Middle East.
If the United States is not willing to give up and wants to come back again, the only chess piece it can use is Israel becauseSaudi Arabia is weak in military force and is not good at fignting while Israel can fight. However, if Israel joins the game and attempts to break the Russian-Turkish-Iranian welding channel again, it will be hit completely. Because this time it’s opponents are not only the Arabs, but the Russians, Turks, Persians, and the rest of the Arab supporters.
This game stops here, and there is no way to go on, but it will bring more shock waves andbigger chain reactions.
When the situation of the Middle East becomes stable,the channel welding is completed,the multi-country anti-Western joint monopoly is completed, and the east-west sea and land traffic on the Eurasian continent is monopolized, the US military bases on the Eurasian continent will be razedand NATO will also loseits value and significance, then the disintegration of NATO will be put on the agenda.
After the disintegration of NATO,little time is left for Europe to decide whether to be exploited by America or to be its own master. If the Europeans want to control their own destiny, they must first split with the United States to become independent and strong. As a vassal of America, it will never be strong.
If Europe must fight at homewith pro-US forces and establish its own troops, large-scale military conflicts will be unavoidable.
The recent situation is very chaotic. Usually, during the expansion and contraction periods, there will be severe turbulence and confusion, while it will be relatively better during the stabilization period. We must be soberly aware that the current chaos and turmoil are phenomena signaling the contraction phase of the United States, not the turbulence of the expansion phase. When something happens,don’t jump to a conclusion that the American government is terrible. The United States is now like a chicken that has been smearedand thrown on the ground. It seems to bestrong while, in fact, it is feeble and dying. the American government used to be a paper tiger, but now it will soon become a cooked chicken, not formidable any more.
The US strategy shift was defeated by China in the financial war on the Eastern Front, and on the Western Front, all the accumulation of the United States in the Middle East was completely bankrupt. For the countries and nations that oppose hegemony, now it is the moment before dawn. Soon will come the daybreak and a new world order!
The above analysis and conclusions will soon be proved. Regarding the secondissue of the future of transnational capital after the US financial defeat, we will talk in the next article.
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发表于 2019-10-31 11:46:18
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